tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7767671.post6938981369584698169..comments2024-03-14T05:51:12.959-05:00Comments on Stolen Thunder: The Right TargetDJ Drummondhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11583885371076583265noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7767671.post-20244882771822944042008-10-05T01:25:00.000-05:002008-10-05T01:25:00.000-05:00First off, let me say I greatly appreciate and res...First off, let me say I greatly appreciate and respect DJ's analysis...it is in fact the main (if not only) reason that I visit this site. <BR/><BR/>Secondly, you won't ever hear me saying that this race is over, because like many that have posted here, I believe that one month is a life time in politics. I know that each day is a potential game changer and only on November 5th can any of us be certain of the outcome. <BR/><BR/>Thirdly, in my opinion, polls are only a barometer of the race. I also know that the agencies that run them usually are unbiased, and must have a "clean" reputation in order to continue to be in business. That doesn't mean they are always right or always weighted properly, it just means if they wish to remain in the business making money then they need to be as accurate as possible. And I certainly don't believe there is some grand conspiracy among the pollsters to get one party in office over another. I do however believe that the CNN's and Fox New's of the world benefit from a close, and especially closely watched race, and if you notice the headlines you will see that most new organizations promote a tight race over one candidate pulling away. If there is no drama, watchers don't watch, if watchers don't watch, ads don't cost as much, so on and so on. <BR/><BR/>And lastly when you look at 2004/2006 demographics, I believe that Mr. Drummond is not terribly far off base. But that's only if you choose to ignore those facts that have occured in the past 21 months...<BR/><BR/>Since the 2006 elections and thru August 2008, demographics have changed. In the 28 states that register according to party affiliation the Democrats have ADDED over 2.1 million voters to their rolls while Republicans have LOST over 350,000 voters (nearly 2.5 million voter change) in the same states. States that include Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia, as well as many heavily Democratic and many heavily Republican states. In addition the number of independent voters have dropped by nearly a million voters since 2006 as well. This is not a poll, this is neither a guess nor opinion, these are voter registration numbers from the Secretary of States of said 28 states. If this is a trend, then one would wonder what the status of the other 22 states is.<BR/><BR/>I have done the math and know how these changes will effect this race, but I make no predictions...I can only say "tune in Wednesday November 5th for the results show!"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7767671.post-58776279165442543732008-10-04T18:07:00.000-05:002008-10-04T18:07:00.000-05:00Pam: before you get TOO discouraged by oink's comm...Pam: before you get TOO discouraged by oink's comment, note that he devoted NOT ONE WORD to DJ's analysis of the weighting methods (particularly dynamic weighting) used in these polls.<BR/><BR/>If he so wishes, he can find it in DJ's other posting here, and in some of his comments.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, if an accusation of 'asking all readers on the right to put their fingers in their ears and sing "I can't hear you!" in reference to all the recent polls that have come out.' is all he has, further argument is pointless.<BR/><BR/>I have no idea how good McCain's strategy is, but I DO have faith that he has one, and that it is based on the fact that whatever polls may say now, it is that little formality on Nov 4th that really matters.<BR/><BR/>Bottom line, no matter WHAT the polls say between now and then, for God's sake do not give up. Go and vote anyway!<BR/><BR/>I still remember the 1980 election, hearing ON ELECTION DAY "Too close to call", and dreading the possibility of another 4 years of the peanut. And then, after that agony of worry, to watch the tidal wave for Reagan sweeping in.<BR/><BR/>Again, don't lose faith. That is precisely what a lot of these polls are commissioned for and weighted to accomplish; to discourage us so we just give up and stay home.<BR/><BR/>Well, sorry democrats! We've consistently had a better record of actually showing up and voting than you have, and that will be the case here.<BR/><BR/>Have a nice day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7767671.post-53371555197260743962008-10-04T17:10:00.000-05:002008-10-04T17:10:00.000-05:00Bounce!? Really? I realize that the owner of this...Bounce!? Really? I realize that the owner of this site is asking all readers on the right to put their fingers in their ears and sing "I can't hear you!" in reference to all the recent polls that have come out.<BR/><BR/>However, I'm surprised that anybody that reads this or similar blogs would assume because Palin did a good job (yes I think she did) that somehow, that would change the trend of this race. Because while I believe Palin did her job of reassuring conservatives that she's an intelligent person, I also know that Biden did more than his job of showing voter's that he is the most qualified Vice President candidate in 20 years.<BR/><BR/>As DJ knows, Vice Presidential candidates don't traditionally change races (Ferraro, Bentsen, Kemp, Qualye, Lieberman, Edwards, etc.). Yes Palin is a different candidate but the historical facts remain that VP's are not game changers...that McCain was hoping to change that shows the level of his plight! <BR/><BR/>I'll agree with DJ that this race is far from over but the trends of this race are clear. But don't take my word for it, I think McCain's concede of Michigan is more than telling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7767671.post-11777277171930798832008-10-03T20:47:00.000-05:002008-10-03T20:47:00.000-05:00DJ, when can we expect some new polling data? Whe...DJ, when can we expect some new polling data? When do you think we might see a bounce, if any, for the Palin debate?Pamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16735798950169233666noreply@blogger.com