Shadow Boxing

Now that I have reviewed the bias in state polling, I have applied the results to the existing record, and trended the polls (more recent = greater value) to see where we are.

The first thing I did, was establish the "shadow" line. This is the point in each state, determined by the average Margin of Error (3.1%) added to the average percentage of undecided voters. The most decisive leads, then, the ones pretty much off the table, I call "past the shadow line".

The next groups are those states which are within the "shadow", but outside the 3.1% Margin of Error.

Finally, there are those states which are within the Margin of Error, and so are too close to call.

Here are the five categories, as they broke down:

Kerry, past the Shadow Line:
Washington, D.C.
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
New York

(for 71 Electoral Votes)

Bush, past the Shadow Line:
Alabama
Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
(for 128 Electoral Votes)

Kerry, inside Shadow but outside MoE:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
(for 177 Electoral Votes)

Bush, inside Shadow but outside MoE:
Arizona
Colorado
Indiana
North Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Virginia
(for 71 Electoral Votes)

Inside Margin-of-Error:
Arkansas
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
West Virginia
Wisconsin
(for 91 Electoral Votes)

So, looking at our scoreboard, Kerry leads Bush 248-199, but most of his EV are in states inside the shadow; that is, states he could lose when the undecideds make up their minds. Remember also, this look is after the Democrats' Convention, but before the Republicans have theirs.

Worst case for Bush/Best case for Kerry: Kerry 410, Bush 128
Worst case for Kerry/Best case for Bush: Bush 467, Kerry 71

It's also worth noting, that at this point, none of the states are significantly different from their 2000 position. While President Bush has to work to secure his key swing states, the trend is headed his way. The question at hand, then, is whether Bush takes the gains he hopes from the convention and September, or whether Kerry can steal the states he needs to gain an Electoral victory.