Saturday, September 25, 2004

Jedi Master Endorses President Bush



Washington, D.C. (STN) - Jedi Master Yoda announced at a press conference this morning, the combined endorsement of the Jedi Knights and the Galactic Republic, to re-elect President George W. Bush to a second term.

"The right man, is he", explained the warrior sage. "Much confused, is his opponent. Both ways he would go, on every issue he cannot decide where he stands."

Yoda was challenged by John Edwards, who was intercepted by a bearded Jedi.

"This is not the one you seek" assured Obi wan Kenobi.

"This is not the one I seek" agreed Edwards.

"Your true enemy is another" suggested Kenobi.

"My true enemy is another" said Edwards.

"Now that you think about it, Ted Kennedy and Michael Moore are an awful lot like Jabba the Hut" said Kenobi

"Yes, they are" agreed Edwards, "I'll go sue them immediately."

"Don't forget the Dark forces of MoveOn.org" reminded Kenobi.

"I'll get them, too" promised Edwards, and he ran off to file subpeonae.

Dan Rather approached the pair with a scowl.

"Aren't you two dead?" demanded Rather.

Yoda shrugged.

"Acting, we were" he explained. "When nine centuries you have lived, well you learn to get a paycheck where you can."

Friday, September 24, 2004

National Polls - Grades

Over on Polipundit, I have published a Guide to the National Polls for the 2004 Presidental race. Since I am trying to be objective over on Polipundit, I did not grade the polls, except to make a few remarks about their more distinctive qualities. Here, I'm going to grade them, red marker pen in hand. Before I do, here's the scale:

A : Top Quality, solid work and great reports, I'd pay for this kind of information

B : Good work, good report. Not complete as I'd like, and maybe makes a few assumptions.

C : Satisfactory. Nothing to complain about, but not very impressive, either.

D : Needs Improvement. They need to show their work, and their report needs more information.

F : Failure. Such shoddy work, I wouldn't use their report if they paid me to take it.


OK, now on to the polls:

ABC News/Washington Post: Good data, cumbersome format for their report. C+


American Research Group: Methodology not explained, poor detail. D-


Associated Press/Ipsos : Good data, solid methodology. Reports need to be easier to access, and demographic voting results should be published. B-


Ayres McHenry: Poor detail, no methodology, partisan agency. F


Battleground Poll : Good methodology, details unsatisfying. C-


CBS News, and CBS News/NY Times : Excellent detail, extensive reports, convenient and consistent. A+


Democracy Corps : Partisan Propaganda, but at least there are some details in their reports. D+


Fox News/Opinion Dynamics : good detail, reasonable methodology, but could and should improve on both counts. B


Gallup: Solid data, great details. A


Harris: decent methodology, but does not release necessary details. C-


Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor: No data, no support, all pretense. F


Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP : No data, no support. F


LA Times : Poor detail, methodology not established. D


Marist College Institute for Public Opinion: No methodology cited, no details. D


NBC News: Good data verification, reports do not have much detail. C


Newsweek : Excellent consistency, detailed reports. A


NPR-POS/GQR : Small sample base, few details, suspect firm with ties to partisan group. C-


Pew Research Center: Solid information, excellent detail. A


Quinnipiac University: Few details, no details on methodology. C-


Rasmussen: Many polls, useful for daily tracking, but no details or methodology. D


Survey USA: Lots of state data, but no demographics. Has a lot to say, but some of it doesn't stand up to inspection. B-


TIME : Tracks trends well, report a little incomplete, but consistent. C+


Wall Street Journal: Co-sponsors with other polls, has no known standards for weighting or methodology of its own. D


Zogby: A biased poll spokesman, non-random respondent pooling, no explanation of his weighting, and results which often are out of synch with other national polls. F





Thursday, September 23, 2004

The September 22 ARG Poll Dissected

Yesterday, in the ‘comments’ section of an article in Polipundit, I noted ARG’s nationwide State Polling results, and wrote that ARG had ‘cheated’. That was a little bit unfair. ARG worked hard to produce a comprehensive poll for the Presidential Election in all 50 states plus D.C., and showed their demographics as well for each and every state. That is certainly worthy of praise, and attention. However, I would still have to say that ARG’s self-review before publishing, appears to be on a par with CBS News. I found what I can only call errors, unless I want to be mean and claim deliberate manipulation. Consequently, I took their numbers and adjusted them to match known and more reasonable demographics, which I will explain further as I go on. Over on Polipundit, I am publishing the overall results. Here at Stolen Thunder, I am presenting the individual states’ results.

The first table shows the states as ARG presents them:

STATE…..R/D/I.……ARG RESULT…….EV…………….RUNNING TALLY
Alabama…40/42/18…54-40 Bush…………9……………Bush 009-000
Alaska……26/18/56…57-30 Bush…………3…………..Bush 012-000
Arizona…..43/37/20…49-43 Bush…………10…………Bush 022-000
Arkansas…29/42/29…48-45 Bush…………6…………..Bush 028-000
California…36/46/18…41-52 Kerry……….55………….Kerry 055-028
Colorado….36/31/33…46-45 Bush………...8……………Kerry 055-036
Conn……...28/36/36…39-54 Kerry………..7……………Kerry 062-036
D.C……….09/74/17…11-78 Kerry………..3……………Kerry 065-036
Delaware…32/44/24…41-50 Kerry………..4……………Kerry 069-036
Florida……39/42/19…45-46 Kerry………..27…………..Kerry 096-036
Georgia…..38/42/20….53-42 Bush………..15…………..Kerry 096-051
Hawaii……25/52/23….41-51 Kerry…….….4…………..Kerry 100-051
Idaho……..44/28/28….59-30 Bush…….…..4…………..Kerry 100-055
Illinois……29/42/29….43-49 Kerry….……21…………..Kerry 121-055
Indiana……44/35/21…54-39 Bush………..11…………..Kerry 121-066
Iowa………34/35/31…48-46 Bush………...7……………Kerry 121-073
Kansas…….44/30/26…57-35 Bush………...6……………Kerry 121-079
Kentucky….34/58/08…57-39 Bush………...8……………Kerry 121-087
Louisiana….31/51/18…50-42 Bush………...9……………Kerry 121-096
Maine……...30/33/37…44-48 Kerry……….4……………Kerry 125-096
Maryland…..31/59/10…43-52 Kerry………10……………Kerry 135-096
Mass……….15/38/47…27-64 Kerry………12……………Kerry 147-096
Michigan…..37/43/20…40-48 Kerry………17……………Kerry 164-096
Minnesota…33/38/29…45-47 Kerry………10……………Kerry 174-096
Mississippi…42/42/16...51-42 Bush………..6…………….Kerry 174-102
Missouri……40/40/20…50-44 Bush………11……………Kerry 174-113
Montana……40/29/31…60-32 Bush………..3…………….Kerry 174-116
Nebraska……51/36/13…61-30 Bush……….5…………….Kerry 174-121
Nevada……..40/38/22…47-45 Bush………..5…………….Kerry 174-126
New Hamp…36/28/36…47-45 Bush……….4……………..Kerry 174-130
New Jersey…20/25/55…42-50 Kerry………15……………Kerry 189-130
New Mex…..34/48/18….44-49 Kerry………..5……………Kerry 194-130
New York….29/47/24….40-52 Kerry………31……………Kerry 225-130
N Carolina…34/50/16….49-44 Bush……….15……………Kerry 225-145
N Dakota…..40/29/31….62-33 Bush…………3…………..Kerry 225-148
Ohio……….38/38/24….48-46 Bush………...20…………..Kerry 225-168
Oklahoma….37/54/9…..55-38 Bush………….7…………..Kerry 225-175
Oregon……..38/40/22…45-47 Kerry…………7………….Kerry 232-175
Penn………..42/48/10…46-47 Kerry………..21………….Kerry 253-175
Rhode Isl…..21/41/38….30-58 Kerry…………4………….Kerry 257-175
S Carolina…41/35/24….52-40 Bush………….8…………..Kerry 257-183
S Dakota…..51/37/12…..58-39 Bush………….3………….Kerry 257-186
Tennessee…39/39/22…..50-43 Bush…………11…………Kerry 257-197
Texas………41/39/20…..58-36 Bush…………34…………Kerry 257-231
Utah………..52/23/25….64-27 Bush…………..5…………Kerry 257-236
Vermont……30/35/35…40-50 Kerry………….3…………Kerry 260-236
Virginia…….37/37/26….49-43 Bush…………13…………Kerry 260-249
Washington…30/39/31…44-51 Kerry…………11……..…Kerry 271-249
W Virginia….33/58/9…..46-46 tie……………...5…..…….Kerry 271-249 (5 und)
Wisconsin….32/36/32….46-46 tie……………..10………..Kerry 271-249 (15 und)
Wyoming…..61/30/9……65-29 Bush…………...3…..……Kerry 271-252 (15 und)

So ARG says Kerry would win with 271 to 286 EV right now, which I don’t buy at all.
Over in Polipundit, I noted that the ARG poll does not balance Men and Women voters by the historical measures, and race was not mentioned in the poll’s demographics. I expect that with a base response of 30,600 adults, race was discarded as a factor, but this further complicates a valid review of the stated results. Also, there is no statement about whether the respondents are Adults, Registered Voters, or Likely Voters, so from the size of the base and the lack of specific comment, I presume we are discussing Adults only. This is significant, because almost every poll has shown Bush collecting higher support as you move from Adults to Likely Voters.

Then there is the matter of the party alignment. When all 50 states and D.C. are tallied, ARG counted 41.4% Democrats, 35.5% Republicans, and 23.1% Independents, which is an unreasonable makeup, and clearly biased in favor of Democrats. I went to my own table to Voter Registration (compiled by contacting the Secretary of State for each state keeping such records and noting their alignment as of December 2003, and for states which do not keep registration records by party, noting the party split in Federal Elections from 1994 through 2002), and plugged in those alignments, which balanced things a little better. Using the same party-vote numbers ARG presented, the new tally favors President Bush by 3.5 points, 47.9% to 44.4%, over John Kerry. Here are the results for each state in the new breakdown:

STATE…..R/D/I.……RESULT…….....EV………….RUNNING TALLY
Alabama…39/41/20…54-40 Bush…………9……………Bush 009-000
Alaska……27/17/56…58-29 Bush…………3…………..Bush 012-000
Arizona…..43/36/21…50-42 Bush…………10…………Bush 022-000
Arkansas…34/41/25…50-43 Bush…………6…………..Bush 028-000
California…36/45/19…42-52 Kerry……….55………….Kerry 055-028
Colorado….40/38/22…45-46 Kerry………...8…………..Kerry 063-028
Conn……...26/35/39…38-55 Kerry………..7……………Kerry 070-028
D.C……….08/75/17…11-79 Kerry………..3……………Kerry 073-028
Delaware…33/44/23…42-50 Kerry………..4……………Kerry 077-028
Florida……40/42/18…45.7-45.9 Kerry…...27…………..Kerry 104-028
Georgia…..38/42/20….53-42 Bush………..15…………..Kerry 104-043
Hawaii……23/56/21….39-54 Kerry…….….4…………..Kerry 108-043
Idaho……..42/26/32….60-30 Bush…….…..4…………..Kerry 108-047
Illinois……39/48/13….46-47 Kerry….……21…………..Kerry 129-047
Indiana……52/40/8..…56-38 Bush………..11…………..Kerry 129-058
Iowa………31/36/33…46-47 Kerry..……...7……………Kerry 136-058
Kansas…….46/29/25…58-34 Bush………...6……………Kerry 136-064
Kentucky….38/42/20…62-34 Bush………...8……………Kerry 136-072
Louisiana….28/54/18…48-44 Bush………...9……………Kerry 136-081
Maine……...30/32/38…45-47 Kerry……….4……………Kerry 140-081
Maryland…..31/58/11…43-52 Kerry………10……………Kerry 150-081
Mass……….14/37/49…27-64 Kerry………12……………Kerry 162-081
Michigan…..42/48/10…40-49 Kerry………17……………Kerry 179-081
Minnesota…39/45/16…45-47 Kerry………10……………Kerry 189-081
Mississippi…40/40/20...52-41 Bush………..6…………….Kerry 189-087
Missouri……37/37/26…50-44 Bush………11……………Kerry 189-098
Montana……37/31/32…58-34 Bush………..3…………….Kerry 189-101
Nebraska……50/28/22…63-27 Bush……….5…………….Kerry 189-106
Nevada……..42/39/19…48-45 Bush………..5…………….Kerry 189-111
New Hamp…38/27/35…48-44 Bush……….4……………..Kerry 189-115
New Jersey…20/25/55…42-50 Kerry………15……………Kerry 204-115
New Mex…..33/50/17….43-50 Kerry………..5……………Kerry 209-115
New York….29/47/24….40-52 Kerry………31……………Kerry 240-115
N Carolina…35/47/18….51-42 Bush……….15……………Kerry 240-130
N Dakota…..44/42/14….57-39 Bush…………3…………..Kerry 240-133
Ohio……….37/35/28….48-45 Bush………...20…………..Kerry 240-153
Oklahoma….38/54/8…..55-37 Bush………….7…………..Kerry 240-160
Oregon……..37/40/23…44-47 Kerry…………7………….Kerry 247-160
Penn………..42/48/10…46-47 Kerry………..21………….Kerry 268-160
Rhode Isl…..20/44/36….29-59 Kerry…………4………….Kerry 272-160
S Carolina…39/38/23….50-42 Bush………….8…………..Kerry 272-168
S Dakota…..56/40/4..…..58-38 Bush………….3………….Kerry 272-171
Tennessee…39/35/26…..51-42 Bush…………11…………Kerry 272-182
Texas………39/50/11…..53-40 Bush…………34…………Kerry 272-216
Utah………..50/31/19….59-31 Bush…………..5…………Kerry 272-221
Vermont……26/24/50…40-47 Kerry………….3…………Kerry 275-221
Virginia…….46/36/18….53-40 Bush…………13…………Kerry 275-234
Washington…29/38/33…44-51 Kerry…………11……..…Kerry 286-234
W Virginia….32/59/9…..45-47 Kerry..………...5…..…….Kerry 291-234
Wisconsin…44/41/15….49-43 Bush.…………..10………..Kerry 291-244
Wyoming…..63/29/8……66-28 Bush…………...3…..……Kerry 291-247

With the registration correction, Kerry improves to 291 EV. But there is still a problem with those numbers, not only because they were counting Adults overall instead of Registered or Likely Voters, but because I noticed their strength-of-support numbers seemed very low for what I had seen in internals. I attributed that to the respondent base, and tweaked the numbers to match more conventional strength-of-support numbers, as I have seen since July in every major poll citing that data (Pew, Gallup, IBD, CBS, Fox, Newsweek, Zogby), and with those punched in, President Bush leads John Kerry by 4.7%, 49.1% to 44.4%.

I punched in the consensus numbers for strength of support, averaging them against ARG’s numbers which raised Bush’s support to a point more consistent with the consensus (2/3 consensus, 1/3 ARG), which resulted in the following breakdown:

STATE…....RESULT……......EV………RUNNING TALLY
Alabama……55-40 Bush…………9 EV……Bush 009-000
Alaska………59-29 Bush…………3 EV.…..Bush 012-000
Arizona……..51-42 Bush…………10 EV.…Bush 022-000
Arkansas……51-43 Bush…………6 EV…...Bush 028-000
California…...43-52 Kerry………...55 EV….Kerry 055-028
Colorado……47-46 Bush……….....8 EV…..Kerry 055-036
Conn…….….40-55 Kerry………....7 EV..…Kerry 062-036
D.C…………11-79 Kerry……..…..3 EV…..Kerry 065-036
Delaware……43-50 Kerry…………4 EV.….Kerry 069-036
Florida………47-46 Bush………...27 EV…..Kerry 069-063
Georgia……..54-42 Bush…………15 EV…..Bush 078-069
Hawaii………39-54 Kerry………….4 EV….Bush 078-073
Idaho………..62-30 Bush…….…….4 EV…..Bush 082-073
Illinois………49-46 Bush……….…21 EV….Bush 103-073
Indiana………57-38 Bush…….…...11 EV…..Bush 114-073
Iowa…………48-47 Bush………...7 EV…...Bush 121-073
Kansas………59-34 Bush…….…...6 EV…...Bush 127-073
Kentucky…….63-34 Bush………...8 EV…...Bush 135-073
Louisiana…….49-44 Bush………...9 EV…..Bush 144-073
Maine…….…..45-47 Kerry……….4 EV……Bush 144-077
Maryland……..43-52 Kerry……..…10 EV….Bush 144-087
Mass………….28-64 Kerry……..…12 EV….Bush 144-099
Michigan……..45-49 Kerry………..17 EV….Bush 144-116
Minnesota……47.4-47.3 Bush…..…10 EV.…Bush 154-116
Mississippi……54-41 Bush………....6 EV…..Bush 160-116
Missouri……….51-44 Bush…….…11 EV.…Bush 171-116
Montana……….58-34 Bush………..3 EV.….Bush 174-116
Nebraska………64-27 Bush……..….5 EV…..Bush 179-116
Nevada…………49-44 Bush…….…..5 EV...Bush 184-116
New Hamp……..49-44 Bush…….….4 EV....Bush 188-116
New Jersey……..42-50 Kerry………15 EV….Bush 188-131
New Mexico…..47-50 Kerry.………..5 EV…..Bush 188-136
New York……..41-52 Kerry……..…31 EV.…Bush 188-167
N Carolina…….52-42 Bush……..….15 EV….Bush 203-167
N Dakota………58-39 Bush…………3 EV….Bush 206-167
Ohio……………49-45 Bush…….…..20 EV…Bush 226-167
Oklahoma………56-37 Bush……..….7 EV…..Bush 233-167
Oregon…………45-48 Kerry……..…7 EV……Bush 233-174
Pennsylvania……46.8-46.9 Kerry…..21 EV…..Bush 233-195
Rhode Island……30-60 Kerry…….…4 EV……Bush 233-199
S Carolina……….51-42 Bush…..…….8 EV…..Bush 241-199
S Dakota…………58-38 Bush……..….3 EV…..Bush 244-199
Tennessee………..53-42 Bush…..……11 EV…..Bush 255-199
Texas…………….54-40 Bush………..34 EV…..Bush 289-199
Utah………………60-31 Bush………..5 EV……Bush 294-199
Vermont…………..40-47 Kerry……….3 EV……Bush 294-202
Virginia……………54-40 Bush….……13 EV…..Bush 307-202
Washington………..44-51 Kerry………11 EV…..Bush 307-213
W Virginia…………46.4-46.8 Kerry…...5 EV……Bush 307-218
Wisconsin………….51-43 Bush.…..…..10 EV……Bush 317-218
Wyoming…………..69-28 Bush………...3 EV……Bush 320-218

In the Popular Vote, this adjustment only puts Bush up by 4.7%, but he completely takes control on the EV level, President Bush now winning 320-218 EV.

So we see, the biggest factor in controlling the results, is strength of support. Note further, that I have not adjusted for turnout, which will ( I think) make Bush’s lead even larger.

UPDATE: Rocketman helped me correct my math.

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Scoreboard September 22

Polls, so many polls!

A lot of people are sick of them, but not me, so here we go, looking at the polls I consider relevant.

“Relevant” is not cherry-picking, exactly. That is, I decided to accept the results of any polls which was released in September, includes a breakdown of at least two categories between adults, registered voters, and likely voters, has head-to-head numbers, and shows at least three demographic details. This list includes Fox News, Pew, ABC News, Newsweek magazine, The Battleground Poll, The CBS/NY Times Poll, IBD/CSM, Zogby, and CNN/USA Today/Gallup. Rasmussen, TIME, ARG, AP/Ipsos, and Harris were excluded because they did not include sufficient internal data to support their headline claims.

On the average of these polls, President Bush leads John Kerry 48.8-44.3%. But the real story is in the internal data:

  • Among Republicans, Bush is preferred 92.8% to 03.8%
  • Among Democrats, Kerry is preferred 82.6% to 10.4%
  • Among Independents, Kerry is preferred 44.7% to 41.5%

    So, the turnout for each party remains critical.
  • Men prefer Bush 51.8% to 41.0%
  • Women prefer Kerry 46.3% to 45.8%

    Unless women far outvote men in this election, that works to Bush’s advantage.
  • Whites prefer Bush 54.5% to 40.0%
  • Non-Whites prefer Kerry 64.7% to 27.0%

    Remember that whites are usually 80% of the turnout, and Bush’s non-White numbers are improved from 2000.

    Bush’s Job Approval averages 51.2% right now.

    58.0% of those polled, said they expect President Bush to be re-elected. Only 22.8% say they expect John Kerry to be elected. This could be an important clue about who will actually go vote in November.

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

American Mythology 2004

I originally wrote this for Polipundit in July, but I thought it was too important to leave stranded in an archive...

As the election heats up again, so does the rhetoric. June 30, the scheduled handover of Sovereignty back to an Interim Government in Iraq, always held special significance for the War in Iraq, as well as the War on Terrorism. Naturally, it has occurred to players and pundits no both sides of the fence, that because the War in Iraq (WI) is a campaign issue, the handover is a point of great value. Or rather, if you have a certain political flavor, it is a point which value must be diluted, diminished, or thwarted as much as possible.

There are two main topics which have risen from the handover of Sovereignty back to Iraq; the return of the Liberal Myth Chant, and the political impact of this tactic. Here, I am discussing the political impact I see from these claims. There are many myths flying around, but for here, I will simply address the top 12 I have heard, or the Dirty Dozen as I see them:

Liberal Myths About Iraq

1. "George W. Bush did not really win the Presidency"
Well over 90% of voters (including Democrats) believe Bush won the 2000 election. This argument cannot win even a single swing voter for Kerry. But if Kerry lets this argument (and its inherent bitterness) get started again, this claim can drive some in the middle to Bush.

2. "Iraq is a country with several racial and religious groups. Giving them their freedom will just lead to civil war, it will just collapse back into another dictatorship"
This claim walks a very thin tightrope. On the one hand, it is true that many people, including Republicans, are wary about assuming the war in Iraq is won or will be stable anytime soon. After all, the first Gulf War to free Kuwait started very well, but did not ultimately resolve the Iraqi question. On the other hand, there are a lot of military people in the United States as well as pro-military supporters, who will see this sort of claim as a tactic used to play on people's fears. Kerry already has a reputation for a negative perspective on the military side of things, and a sour look here could hurt Kerry in a number of key states.

3. "The handover was only symbolic, Iraq is just a puppet of the US"
A growing number of Bush's critics are pushing this argument now, but it's not a good thing for Kerry. First off, it's clearly a negative attack, and Kerry has made a big point of accusing the GOP of using negative tactics, so he can't afford to get connected to this attack, or he'll just look like a hypocrite. Next, it is defeatist-sounding, and the closer the election comes, the more vital it will be to Kerry to appear Presidential.

4. "There were no WMD, and Bush lied to get us into Iraq"
As more WMD evidence is found, and Kerry tries to focus on his image as a positive leader, it will become impossible for Kerry to use these sorts of tactics, except through surrogates like Michael Moore, et al. But even the use of stand-in attacks will likely drop off by the middle of the summer, because the last thing Kerry wants, is to call attention to a policy where people may revisit their decision and decide President Bush was right after all.

5. "The US just wants to rape Iraq's resources"
This one's already D.O.A., folks. Yes, we're starting to see it again, but it's a sign of desperation more than anything else. While gas prices are high, anyone trying to claim that the Bush Administration went into this war to keep oil flowing is going to look like the tinfoil-hat merchant of your choice. And as gas prices come back down, there is still zero chance that this claim could gain traction.

6. "Iraqis are not celebrating the handover, they know nothing has changed"
You'll read and hear this a lot this week, but not for very long. Already, the average Iraqi is beginning to sense the changes taking place. Saddam is in Iraqi custody now, scheduled elections for the National Assembly are already in the works, and the last two polls from Iraq show a growing optimism. Kerry would be well-advised to leave this topic alone, as it can only benefit President Bush.

7. "The Interim government is no more legitimate than Saddam Hussein was"
Saddam Hussein is quickly becoming as absurd a model for comparison, as Hitler was a few months back. It's actually fun to see that claim in print, because (as before), it really shows the level of desperation some have shown as the news in Iraq gets better and better.

8. "Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and Iran are much greater threats than Iraq ever was"
Most people are able to understand the difference between these countries, and the threat each presented. More, most of us are well enough aware of Saddam Hussein, to understand that if Saudi Arabia, North Korea, and Iran are to be considered unstable, then we would have to coin a completely new word, to properly describe the level of danger and hostility that Hussein's regime posed to the region, and to the United States. Anyone who wants to discount the threat posed by Iraq, is likely to face a skeptical audience. Politically, expect Kerry to carefully rephrase this attack, to suggest that there are additional countries of concern, while backing away from this assertion. It may well be, however, that his supporters will be slower to catch the drift.

9. "Conservatives are unfairly attacking Liberals, just for not agreeing with them"
At first blush, my response would be that we seem to have struck a nerve, if the Left reacts so hotly to a few selected ads, pointing out , well, deficiencies in Kerry's performance as a Senator. Not at all a personal attack, and certainly nothing in the league of the absolute vitriol one can find at the Democratic Underground , or say, the CBS Nightly News with Dan Rather. It has its political value, of course, especially if your counterpart obliges with an uncivil response. This is one reason why in the past, the incumbent has generally waited until mid-summer to make any sort of response to the challenger; don't give the opposition any ammunition. However, a review of past elections also shows that the challenger can set the stage by making charges which are not answered early on, which in recent days has forced both sides to reply to the other, and to raise the stakes. That, I think, has had the effect of turning the public away from much of the debate, producing results which sometimes benefits neither side. In this case, the claims by the Left are unlikely to gain any traction on their own, but if the President can be made to seem defensive on controversial policies, the Left can present his responses as negative. Of course, it is also true that when the President can present himself as optimistic and positive, such tactics by the Left will likely backfire, which recent polls support.

10. "Fundamentalist Islam is to blame, not some state or leader"
Ahh, the 'religion is evil' card. Not at all surprising, but I really don't see that as working to sway undecideds in favor of Kerry. That is, I understand that the Left is trying to play a subtle game on two levels: To imply that Bush and his Administration do not really understand the nature of the threat they are facing, and also to suggest that religious faith, in a politician, is often changed to something less noble in actual practice. The reasons I don't think that will work are these:
a. First off, the Left marginalizes many Muslims by implying the faith is connected directly to the violence.
b. The Left also fails to grasp that attacking people for their faith is an ill-chosen road. Even when they do not share the particulars of a certain belief, there are a great many people whose personal faith includes dedication to the idea, that everyone else is entitled to their faith, as well. Trying to blame a belief system, rather than the people doing bad things, is likely to result in resistance.
c. Kerry has presented himself, basically, as a secular humanist. Attacking a faith, however foreign, is going to seem to be part of a general assault on religious freedom.

The message is powerful enough, that its effect will be undeniable. It is also subtle enough, that Kerry might not understand what is happening before the damage is done.

11. "Instead of being in Iraq at all, we should first finish the job in Afghanistan"
All that statement really does, is try to divert attention from Iraq. With all Kerry has said in the past about Iraq, if he lets his supporters press this argument, he will merely remind people of how wrong he was in Iraq, and will come across as a man unwilling to admit where he was wrong.

12. "Bush is changing his defense about why we went into Iraq"
Unfortunately, this one has already gotten some traction, ironically because the Democrats have been successful in confusing people about what President Bush said, and what Democrats have said.President Bush and his Administration have always presented a multi-level argument for the War in Iraq. However, because so much controversy was drummed up by the Democrats about WMD, there was an unbalanced presentation of the debate to the public, and many Americans were left with the impression that WMD was the only issue. The facts, available for anyone willing to look them up, show that President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld, early on, reminded Americans about the torture and murder of dissidents, including children, about the treatment of minorities and women in Iraq, about the abuse of the UN Oil-for-Food program, and everything which has been discussed since Baghdad fell to the Coalition. Fortunately, the Left has bungled this opportunity, as well as others they have had. In Michael Moore's slanderama, ‘Fahrenheit 9/11', for example, none of the other valid reasons presented by the Bush Administration is discussed, and the existing presentations are done in such a sneering tone, that unbiased viewers are likely to be disgusted by the attacks, whose slant and malice are clear. No one will be impressed by Moore's film, who did not already hold beliefs to match Moore's own before they saw the film. The same thing happens with MoveOn.org, and so many other groups dedicated to rabid hatred against the President; how many reasonable people will make their decision to vote for the Presidency, on the basis of an argument presented by someone who appears to have overdosed on steroids? The short answer for President Bush, even after enduring so many months of abuse from Kerry's slimier allies, might well be to simply maintain the course, to do as he has done, and let the record speak for itself.

While the success of the Bush Administration will undoubtedly drive many more Liberals to scream even more obscenities, it will also convince many people to stay with a winner. Before concluding, I would like to note the results from some recent polls, especially where the answers from voters have remained consistent. First off, let's review the most recent poll of Iraqis, about Iraq, presented by The Washington Post:

- 68 percent of Iraqis have confidence in their new leaders.
- 73 percent of Iraqis polled approved of Allawi to lead the new government,
- 84 percent approved of President Ghazi Yawar
- almost two-thirds backed the new Cabinet
- Four out of every five Iraqis expected that the new government will “make things better” for Iraq after the handover
- two-thirds of Iraqis believed the first democratic elections for a new national assembly will be free and fair
The last Fox poll shows 75% of Bush's supporters support him 'strongly', only 53% of Kerry's supporters are 'strong'. Bush continues to lead on key questions about who will protect America better from Terrorism (49-28), who is more trustworthy (42-31), and who is expected to win in November (50-30); Bush has always led in these questions, regardless of opponent.

The latest Battleground Poll notes that more respondents are likely to vote against Kerry (42% 'strongly likely') because of what they?ve learned about him, than for him (31% 'strongly likely'). Like Fox, Battleground finds voters trust Bush more to protect against Terrorism (55-36), more likely to say what he really believes (57-34), and more likely to act as a strong leader (54-38).

Gallup also agrees that Bush remains well ahead of Kerry on the issue of the War against Terrorism (54-40). What's worse for Kerry, Gallup observes "despite everything that has happened in American politics over the last five months, the public’s views of the president have remained remarkably consistent".

The CBS/NY Times Poll (you know, the guys whose ratings for Bush are lower than anyone else?s) note 56% of Bush's supporters are 'strong', but only 31% of Kerry's supporters are 'strong', that 58% of the voters say Bush says what he really believes, while only 34% for Kerry. This from a group which admits Democrats were polled more heavily than Republicans, by a 5-to-4 margin! (page 31 of the pdf detail)

NBC notes that although 68% of voters said they knew a lot about Kerry in March, now only 57% say they know a lot about Kerry, showing that some have begun to doubt what they initially heard from Kerry, enough to back away substantially from the man.

The total effect of these myths, when considered, is that the liberals are running scared, apparently scared to death about what Americans will conclude when they find out the facts. Here you see my estimates of the effects of these claims.


UPDATE: Now that it's late September, it's interesting to look at how the race has changed in the less than three months. With six weeks to go, the ride is getting to be real fun, and it looks like the people will make the right choice again.

Letter to CBS News

I sent a letter to CBS News via their website:

Good afternoon, gentlemen:

To begin, I should note, in the interest of full disclosure, that I am a blogger. Yes, one of those “guys in pajamas” who work at their home computer, and for whom you doubtless hold little fondness at the moment. In reality, of course, I don’t wear pajamas much, and often prepare my pieces with the same editorial standards you would expect of anyone serious about their work. And that brings me, to the matter of Dan Rather’s deceit and complicity in an attempt to manipulate a Presidential election.

Frankly, I am stunned, that you would fail so miserably, in recalling even the basic tenets of Edward R. Murrow, but enough of that. The task at hand, is to stop the fall, and to repair the damage. Some many people are amused at the collapse of CBS’ credibility, but I am not. I am fully aware, that as a blogger, I am able to analyze the work of numerous news sources, compare and test the claims made by all the various spokesmen, but I do not produce a great deal of the news on my own. And so, it is essential for all of us, to be able to trust and cooperate with the major news networks, provided a feasible arrangement can be had. You see, it should have occurred to you, or will soon, that CBS, if it is to survive, needs the blogger community as much as we need you. Or to put it more bluntly, if CBS fails, we still have ABC, NBC, CNN, and Fox, just as if any one or number of bloggers were to stop publishing, there would be many to take their place. But I think it is better for all concerned, to find a means of cooperation, where all gain a better position from the moment.

You will decide for yourself where things went wrong on the Guard Memo Forgery story, so I will not presume to tell you what should be obvious. However, it should be abundantly clear, that you need at least one more level of check and balance to prevent the sort of error so painfully difficult to repair. And to that, I would make four suggestions:

1. Admit you screwed up. Be specific, and make sure Rather personally apologizes to the Killian family. Until they forgive you, this won’t go away. Don’t put your buddies on any commission, either. If you’re going to find out what happened, cooperate fully in telling the whole truth. Anything else, is just digging deeper.

2. Do not let a news anchor play at investigative reporter. It blurs the line between news and commentary to begin with, and as you see in the present mire, it removes some much-needed safeguards.

3. Get a broader perspective, than the New York office. America is also made up of people in Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, Detroit, and many small towns and remote locations, as well. Test your opinion where you won’t get the automatic response.

4. Hire bloggers! I would strongly recommend, that CBS start a network blog, where you can get immediate and direct feedback from viewers, and to do that, you will need people able to post CBS stories with the blog flavor and, frankly, the sort of honesty that is not found on broadcast news. Yeah, I know, this isn’t going to be popular with men who think in terms of how they did things in 1980, but take a close look at how the bloggers broke the Rathergate story, and you have to see that only by having bloggers of your own, can you avoid becoming irrelevant. Besides, the trend towards online news and real-time feedback is not only happening, it’s here. Evolve or be left behind, gentlemen.

5. Last but not least, remember who you used to be. There was a time, when CBS stood for a standard better than the other networks. For a lot of people, it matters.

If you are still reading by this point, thanks, and congratulations – like the saying, the first step to getting better, is admitting you have a problem. I send this message not to taunt, but to make suggestions that really will help.

Respectfully,

“DJ Drummond”
http://www.polipundit.com
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com

Who knows, maybe it will do some good!

Monday, September 20, 2004

The Morality of War - Part 4

So, here we are in 21st Century America, a land where our Constitution still dictates the boundaries of Law, yet we must take off our belts and watches before entering many public buildings. There is a clear difference between the type of War President Bush has waged, and the type of War Senator Kerry says he would wage.

First, Senator Kerry: The Democrat's nominee for President is a combat veteran from Vietnam, who opposed the war then, and now says we should not have invaded the way President Bush proceeded. Senator Kerry, however, has never gone into specifics about his plan. He seems to believe that the United States needs the support of the United Nations in order to go to war, their abysmal record in protecting innocents notwithstanding. Kerry also seems to disrespect the committment of nations like Great Britain and Pakistan, preferring instead to curry favor with the old continental powers of Europe long past, such as France and Germany. He has said he would respond if America is attacked again, yet seems oblivious to the fact that America was already attacked in 2001. Kerry favors response after the fact, to proactive measures in advance. He seems also, to believe that unless America is directly attacked by a nation or group, we should not use force against them, even where there is cause and provocation. HIs entire history in the Senate, has been on eof cutting Defense budgets and opposing the needs of our military. The sole conclusion I can reach, is that a Kerry Presidency would be hesitant, slow, indecisive and weak, Carter with higher stakes. Whatever one thinks of War, under Kerry it would not be prevented, only bloodier and conducted at our enemy's whim. I can only call such a worldview immoral, as it puts the blood of men at smaller value than political image.

As for President Bush, he has his failings. More than a thousand servicemen have died fighting the present conflict, and because there is reason to believe the President underestimated the cost, he bears fault for that. Further, until Iraq is secure and stable, there is the risk that the war was fought for a cause which has not been accomplished. However, against that, we must measure the fact that Bush's actions prevented a follow-up attack on U.S. soil by al Qaeda, and he has freed two nations from tyrannical regimes, both known to suport and promote terrorist groups. He has demonstrated resolve in a noble cause, and has trusted his generals and cabinet to know and perform their responsibilities. He has recognized and met the strategic threat from Global Terrorism, and has balanced the limits of his office with a bold initiative to lead the offensive to remove this threat from American territories and allies. President Bush has invested the force and authority of the United States, to lead the world to greater security and freedom, by creating the opportunity for the Middle East to choose its own path, rather than be goaded by tyrants and madmen, and despite the lies of his enemies, has put duty ahead of politics, and the good of the nation ahead of present comfort.

The future is uncertain, but it was always so. President Wilson dared to believe that the First World War made the world safe for Democracy. Though he failed to anticipate Hitler and Tojo, it was nonetheless well for the world, that American Marines entered France in 1917, and setlled a war which otherwise might have been even worse in cost and misery. President Roosevelt dared to believe that we might treat with Stalin, though he knew the man was a monster. Though FDR failed to foresee the Iron Curtain or the rise of Communist China, it was well for the world that American forces ended the wars in Berlin and Tokyo, or it might, again, have been even worse for those who could not ignore the bombs and the tanks. Ronald Reagan dared to believe that America would lead the nations out of Communism. Though he failed to foresee the rise of Islamofascism, or corporate terrorism, or the global alliance between murderers, it is well for the world that Reagan faced down the Politburo, or we might not have the means to take on the terrorists.

And so, we come now to the present danger, a crisis one candidate thinks we can hide from, but which our President has resolved to face and defeat. The battles will be of both common and new appearance, some obvious and som ehidden, some easy and some at ghastly cost, but the morality of the moment is to defend our land and children, by taking out the enemy where he bases, and changing the landscape which bred such monsters. By ending these enemies, we may give their nations hope for their own future, and so better insure our own, and if War has any morality, surely this is where it is found.