Friday, October 01, 2004

Poll Position Revisited

Now that I have sorted out the polls by groups, I have weighted them, to show how the race stood, in my opinion, at various points this year.

Here’s how it works: In an earlier post, I broke the polls down into groups. The “Good Basic Polls” and the “Very Solid Detail and Methodology” polls get counted, with the “Very Solid” polls getting counted twice. I take the polls by two-week periods, to show the direction and strength of the campaigns. Here’s how it broke out:

March 19 – April 1: 46-46 tie

April 2-15: 45-46 Kerry

April 16-29: 47-45 Bush

April 30 – May 13: 46-47 Kerry

May 14-27: 44-47 Kerry

May 28 – June 10: 46-48 Kerry

June 11-24: 48-47 Bush

June 25 – July 8: 46-49 Kerry

July 9-22: 45-48 Kerry

July 23 – August 5: 46-49 Kerry (Kerry’s last lead)

August 6-19: 47-47 tie (Negative DNC bounce)

August 20 – September 2: 47-47 tie

September 3-16: 51-44 Bush (notice the effect of GOP Convention)

September 17-30: 50-43 Bush (bounce is sustained)

Take it for what it’s worth, but when you look at the polls which show their work, and adhere to NPCC/AAPOR standards, you have a close race which breaks open for Bush after the GOP Convention, and a sustained 7-point lead. I will be interested to see how the First Debate affects (or not) these numbers.

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