Wednesday, November 03, 2004


OK, assuming John Kerry doesn’t change his mind again, it’s over, and the forces of Light and Goodness have won. And that means I can start thinking about praising the people who called the Scoreboard correctly first.

I took the Popular Vote numbers from CNN, as well as the EV tally (presuming Bush takes Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, since he is leading all three states), and here’s the tentative numbers:

President Bush ======== 58,489,865 ==== 51.4% ====== 286 EV
Senator Kerry========= 54,970,878 ==== 48.3% ====== 252 EV
Ralph Nader============ 391,533 ===== 00.3%

Looking at these numbers, I can begin to comment on the people who nailed either the Popular Vote or the Electoral Vote. I will post another version Friday, either correcting the numbers if they change, or confirming these winners.

No one got it exactly right, but three people got Bush’s PV mark exactly right. And one pundit was less than half-point off.

Bruce Campbell, who posted on October 27 at 3:02 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 47.7%, which was off by an aggregate 0.6 points. Bruce got Bush’s number exactly right, and closer than the other two posters who got it exactly right. If the PV stands up, Bruce is our winner!

Bill, who posted on October 13 at 4:06 PM, predicted Bush 51.5%, Kerry 48.5%, which was off by only 0.3 aggregate points. Well done!

dukeblondie, who posted on October 12 at 2:51 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.6%, off by an aggregate 1.7 points.

And IJB, who posted on October 14 at 9:23 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.3%, off by an aggregate 2.0 points.

Also worth noting, are the people who got the EV pick exactly right:

Anthony Roberts posted at 8:46 PM on October 30, picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-48.5 PV prediction was only 0.6 aggregate points off!

soccer4ever posted at 12:38 PM on October 25, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-47 PV prediction was 1.7 aggregate points off.

Duncan Currie posted at 11:30 AM on October 29, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 52-47 PV prediction was 1.9 aggregate points off.

Finally, Carl Richardson posted at 1:50 AM on October 31, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 50.1-49.3 PV prediction was 2.3 aggregate points off.

Congratulations to our winners! The entire Scoreboard is still up, if you want to check the whole list.

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