Friday, December 03, 2004

Election Prediction Winners!

Now that most of the states have been certified, we can now see who won the Predictions Contest.

The scoring is simple. I looked for an exact hit on the Popular Vote percentages claimed by President Bush and Senator Kerry, and counted the Electoral Vote results for a tie-breaker, if needed.

In the end, President George W. Bush claimed 50.9% of the Popular Vote and 286 Electoral Votes, while Senator John Kerry claimed 48.0% of the Popular Vote and 252 Electoral Votes.

Nobody got the exact 50.9-48.0 pick, so my next step was to measure aggregate accuracy, then the EV pick, then the date and time of submission, and here I’m listing the winners, in order of their accuracy, for the voters who were within 0.5% of the actual results. It’s amazing how many people were in that x-ring!


SPECIAL MENTION: Tim McDonald was not able to get within 0.5% of the aggregate accuracy, but he was the only voter to accurately predict President Bush would claim 50.9% of the PV (Tim called it 50.9-46.5 Bush, with a 317-221 EV split). That earns an Honorable Mention.


0.5 range, places 22 and 23
23rd [] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.6 [B291-247] David M. McClory, 10.30.04, 11:29 PM
22nd [] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3 [B276-249] William Winfield, 10.29.04, 1:51 PM

0.4 range, places 18 through 21
21st [] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B304-238] T Brewer, 10.14.04, 3:53 PM
20th [] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B302-236] Michael Fabiano, 10.14.04, 10:55 PM
19th [] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B300-238] Pete Gardiner, 10.31.04, 10:30 PM
18th [] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.2 [B300-238] George Tobin, 10.27.04, 3:34 PM


0.3 range, places 1 through 17
17th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [EV unk] Jerryx, 10.31.04, 2:33 PM
16th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B312-226] Rich F, 10.15.04, 1:13 PM

15th [] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.8 [B307-231] Ben Maller, 10.31.04, 12:18 AM
14th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B306-232] Excelsior, 10.27.04, 11:19 PM
13th [] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.2 [B301-237] Doc Steve, 10.23.04, 9:39 PM

12th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] mike the analyst, 10.21.04, 11:27 AM
11th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] Dominick S., 10.12.04, 2:10 PM

AND THE TOP TEN:
10th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B298-240] Rachel DiCarlo, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM

9th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B297-241] Michael Call, 10.15.04, 6:20 PM
8th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] VACons, 10.26.04, 8:02 AM
7th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] Paul, 10.24.04, 10:19 AM

6th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] SGG, 10.12.04, 3:00 PM

AND THE FIVE BEST:
5th [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B295-243] Van Pham, 10.12.04, 2:08 PM
4th [] Bush 51.2, Kerry 48 [B279-259] Charles Fulner, 10.12.04 3:31 PM
3rd [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B292-246] Larry, 10.15.04, 3:31 PM
2nd [] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B291-247] JB, 10.12.04, 3:05 PM

and our 1st Place CHAMPION is…

[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B290-248] RoBear, 10.12.04, 3:18 PM

CONGRATULATIONS!

I will start looking up to see the homepages of the top 5 winners and will link to them here at Stolen Thunder, and will (if possible), write up profiles of the top 5 and their homepages for here and on Polipundit.

Also worth noting, are the people who got the EV pick exactly right:

Anthony Roberts posted at 8:46 PM on October 30, picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-48.5 PV prediction was only 0.6 aggregate points off!

soccer4ever posted at 12:38 PM on October 25, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-47 PV prediction was 1.7 aggregate points off.

Duncan Currie posted at 11:30 AM on October 29, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 52-47 PV prediction was 1.9 aggregate points off.

Finally, Carl Richardson posted at 1:50 AM on October 31, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 50.1-49.3 PV prediction was 2.3 aggregate points off.

Congratulations to our prediction sharpshooters!

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