Wednesday, May 03, 2006

The Dog That Didn’t Bark


We hear it wailing every day like the Liberal version of the muezzin calling the Muslims to prayer: “Bush poll numbers lowest ever! Bush still sinking! Bush is done for!”

Well, you all know what I think about that crap. I have mentioned that Bush is unlikely to work on his poll numbers, because he doesn’t need to get elected to anything again, and the Congress is not doing diddly to respect his work and office, so he sees no reason to pretty up his façade just to get these deserters another term through his efforts, as he did in 2002. I have observed that the polls are not only skewed in their demographics, but also do not even bother to find out if their respondents are regular voters or even if they voted in the last election. The poll numbers, therefore, are completely bunk, especially since so many of the polling groups have a lot more interest in creating a story by hinting Bush is in trouble, than in honestly reporting how America really thinks of him.

But I also noticed something else. The RCP average for Bush pegs his JA at 35.2%, taking data from almost two dozen polls. But if you take the latest results from each of the 21 polling groups cited, his average climbs to 37.3%, meaning that not all polls are weighed the same way in that balance. And it’s interesting, to me at least, to examine the latest poll results by the date ended. CBS, NBC/WSJ, Rasmussen, Cook, and USA Today/Gallup all ran polls which ended the last week of April. CNN, FOX, and Pew ran polls which ended the week before that. The other 13 polls cited in that average are using responses which are more than half a month old. Also, it’s worth noting that Rasmussen, Cook, Pew, and NBC/WSJ are showing numbers which are significantly better than the claims from CNN, CBS, and even FOX (remember that FOX polls were inconsistent during the 2004 campaign).

In total, well, it’s just more of what I warned you about. There are a number of qualities that you find in a worthwhile poll; demographics consistent with the population, internally consistent methodology, transparent internal data, and timely indicators all come to mind. To be blunt, none of the polls being presented right now have all of those qualities, and several have none at all. This won’t stop Liberals from cackling their lies, but it does mean you don’t have to believe them.

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