I took a look over at Polling Report, to see how the Congressional Races were doing, and I noticed something interesting. If you look at the standings, Democrats are leading the Republicans in generic ballots, which is kind of like pitting Batman against The Punisher in a comic book battle; we’re not exactly looking at real people, so you have to be careful reading fact in the thing. Even so, here’s the tracking:
June 38% Republican, 50% Democrat
May 35% Republican, 49% Democrat
Why is this interesting? The Republican Party in general is climbing faster than the Democrats in general. Given the advantages the Democrats enjoyed during May and early June, the shift here shows that the public is moving back towards a balance. It gets better when you consider the battleground states, where neither party should have a clear edge. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are all pretty much “grey” states. And given the need for Democrats to do better than make slight gains, this effective balance works more towards the Republicans’ favor than the Democrats. And obviously there is the clear result from California, as in District 50, an election being the clearest sort of poll.
What I am saying is what we are seeing all across the board; the Democrats might be able to make some gains, but it doesn’t look like it’s enough to give them control of either chamber. As we roll into Summer, it's also becoming clear that the Democrats refuse to change course, preferring to try riding a dead horse rather than admit a mistake.