Wednesday, July 12, 2006

The White Rabbit Poll

Gallup’s latest offering shows President Bush back at 40% Job Approval. Many people are likely to take this news to indicate that the Bush Administration has been doing something to improve his image, maybe making changes to “unpopular” positions he has taken. The MSM may be relied upon to pursue this interpretation, for a number of reasons, including the sad fact that few television or print journalists do much more than read copy from the wire. But a closer look at his policies and actions demonstrates that President Bush has been consistent. What then pulls his numbers back to middling acceptability? Spin, actually.

To look at it another way, if you have ever been out in a boat, you will note that waves crash a certain way against a rock. The rock of course is not moving at all, but the kind and size of waves which splash against and over it will vary quite a bit. This is because of things like the tide, boats in the water, and so on. Few people are foolish enough to claim that the rock must be making the motion. To some degree, the press may be forgiven for looking for motion from President Bush, since they got used to eight years of Dancing For The Polls during the Clinton years, but when 2006 policies and doctrines are almost exactly the same as they were in 2002, it’s a bit odd to pretend that the course has been altered.

Just a reminder; ‘Alice In Wonderland’ could be a political documentary of how facts get spun, to say nothing of opinion.

4 comments:

Anna said...

Loved you metaphor, DJ! Rasmussen has him at 44%.

Ontario Emperor said...

Has anyone ever done a statistical study to see if there are variables that coorelates with presidential ratings in opinion polls?

DJ Drummond said...

I don't think that is empirically possible, o.e. The problem is that there is no standard timeframe for such polling, nor any nominal methodology to which all major polls subscribe, so that any attempt to measure poll results must be done, by definition, subjectively.

HILLARYNEEDSAVACATION said...

the metaphor as ANNA says, is perfect...

'White Rabbit' !

LOL

another fine read Mr. Drummond...

Thank you