Hello again, and time for another edition of the Secret Poll. The eleciton remains winnable by either John McCain or Barack Obama, the keys coming down to turnout, the independents, and just plain not giving up. Last night was the third debate between the presdiential candidates, but it will take at least 10-14 days for results to show up in the polls; anything showing up in the near future will be in response to prior activities and statements.
So, once again, here’s the recap of where I think the true numbers have played out, and where we are now:
August 31: McCain 41.77%, Obama 41.06%
September 7: McCain 42.45%, Obama 42.04%
September 14: McCain 45.71%, Obama 39.62%
September 21: McCain 44.48%, Obama 42.06%
September 28: McCain 42.73%, Obama 41.62%
October 5: McCain 44.09%, Obama 43.96%
October 12: McCain 42.68%, Obama 45.31%
McCain lost support among both republicans and independents, possibly a matter of voters turning away from a perceived loser, but also likely influenced by the economic news and the lack of a clear answer in the near future. That said, the 12.01% undecided portion makes this race still very much in doubt, although it is also clear that McCain is losing ground.
The keys, again, are the following
Turnout – if one party clearly does a better job getting its base to vote, that party will clearly win. More than ever, your vote matters.
Independents – Right now, the Independent vote is essentially tied, with about 28% of Independents still undecided. Whoever wins the most of that vote will win the election.
Undecideds – Overall, 12.01% of voters are still undecided. It’s slowly resolving itself, but there will still be a large pool of voters waiting to be convinced just before election day. Finishing strong could make all the difference.