Hello again, and time for another edition of the Secret Poll. The election remains winnable by either John McCain or Barack Obama, the keys coming down to turnout, the independents, and just plain not giving up. It will take at least 10-14 days for results to show up in the polls; anything showing up in the near future will be in response to prior activities and statements, and some things done now may be too late to show up in time for voters to recognize their meaning. Then again, Obama's 30-minute infomercial on November 3rd could be important in making up minds.
So, once again, here’s the recap of where I think the true numbers have played out, and where we are now:
August 31: McCain 41.77%, Obama 41.06%
September 7: McCain 42.45%, Obama 42.04%
September 14: McCain 45.71%, Obama 39.62%
September 21: McCain 44.48%, Obama 42.06%
September 28: McCain 42.73%, Obama 41.62%
October 5: McCain 44.09%, Obama 43.96%
October 12: McCain 42.68%, Obama 45.31%
October 19: McCain 43.49%, Obama 46.03%
McCain regained support among independents, but republicans are beginning to fade, possibly believing the ‘cannot win’ hype. The undecided portion remains very important at 10.48%, and with just two weeks to go it appears that the undecideds are waiting to be sold on a candidate, or they may decide not to vote. The keys, again, are the following:
Turnout – if one party clearly does a better job getting its base to vote, that party will clearly win. More than ever, your vote matters.
Independents – Right now, the Independent vote is essentially tied, with about 24% of Independents still undecided. Whoever wins the most of that vote will win the election.
Undecideds – Overall, 10.48% of voters are still undecided. It’s slowly resolving itself, but there will still be a large pool of voters waiting to be convinced just before election day. Finishing strong could make all the difference.