Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Secret Poll October 23 2008

Hello again, and time for another edition of the Secret Poll. The election remains winnable by either John McCain or Barack Obama, the keys coming down to turnout, the independents, and just plain not giving up. It will take at least 10-14 days for results to show up in the polls; anything showing up in the near future will be in response to prior activities and statements, and some things done now may be too late to show up in time for voters to recognize their meaning. Then again, Obama's 30-minute infomercial on November 3rd could be important in making up minds.

So, once again, here’s the recap of where I think the true numbers have played out, and where we are now:

August 31: McCain 41.77%, Obama 41.06%

September 7: McCain 42.45%, Obama 42.04%

September 14: McCain 45.71%, Obama 39.62%

September 21: McCain 44.48%, Obama 42.06%

September 28: McCain 42.73%, Obama 41.62%

October 5: McCain 44.09%, Obama 43.96%

October 12: McCain 42.68%, Obama 45.31%

October 19: McCain 43.49%, Obama 46.03%

McCain regained support among independents, but republicans are beginning to fade, possibly believing the ‘cannot win’ hype. The undecided portion remains very important at 10.48%, and with just two weeks to go it appears that the undecideds are waiting to be sold on a candidate, or they may decide not to vote. The keys, again, are the following:

Turnout – if one party clearly does a better job getting its base to vote, that party will clearly win. More than ever, your vote matters.

Independents – Right now, the Independent vote is essentially tied, with about 24% of Independents still undecided. Whoever wins the most of that vote will win the election.

Undecideds – Overall, 10.48% of voters are still undecided. It’s slowly resolving itself, but there will still be a large pool of voters waiting to be convinced just before election day. Finishing strong could make all the difference.

5 comments:

David Marcoe said...

So, if the general agreement that McCain won the third presidential debate holds true and it was a momentum shift, if not a game-changer, we should start seeing a rise in Republican support in the next few days?

rickl said...

I think the Joe the Plumber incident was huge, and that was a little over a week ago.

fred said...

The tax issue is a winner if McCain continues to hit it hard. Forget the Ayers angle. It is sad but no one cares. McCain should ask voters to do the math, show taxes must go up under an Obama administration and make the case for tax cuts.

I think Joe might be the game changer. Hang tough and beat the tax drum hard! Ignore the MSM that the election has already been decided. Get out and vote!!!

Hestrold said...

I keep following the candidates' schedules and note that McCain and company keep returning to Penn. In Colorado yesterday, Iowa, Big MO, New Hampshire, Ohio, etc. But I think that the McCain camp feels if they can flip Penn. they win.

rickl said...

hestrold:

I'm working hard in Pennsylvania!

I'm 50 years old and this is the first time I've ever volunteered for a political campaign. I wouldn't be spending all this time and effort if I thought it was futile. I do believe that McCain & Palin can win here.