Wednesday, December 02, 2015

FBS Football Rankings December 2 edition


Time again for an update for the College Football Playoff Committee imitation rankings. As of today, there are seven (7) remaining FBS schools which remain in playoff contention. This is the new ranking set.

For this report, I am also providing a ranking of ‘major’ teams, defined by Power 5 and Major Independent teams with 3 or fewer losses, and Group of 5 teams with 2 or fewer losses.  There are twenty-seven (27) such teams, which gives us a reasonable ‘top 25’ comparison by performance.


As a reminder, I took the average scoring offense and scoring defense for the contenders, and subtracted the defense from the offense to get the average scoring range. Then I tracked the games played and noted the difference between points scored and what the opponent normally allows, and what was allowed versus what the opponent normally scores. I then averaged those variances together, added it twice to the scoring range to find a grade. The totals for the seven remaining contenders range from 42.05 to 80.92. Here are the results, with variance from CFP positions noted:


1. Oklahoma (11-1, Big XII ) - average margin of victory: 25.0 Offense averages scoring 14.8 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 13.2 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is Texas (loss, net result is -11.8), best game is Kansas State (win, net result is +55.1). Overall rating 81.16 (#3 in CFP, variance of 2 places, #4 in USA poll, #3 in AP poll);


2. Alabama (11-1, SEC West) - average margin of victory: 20.2 Offense averages scoring 11.2 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 16.1 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is Ole Miss (loss, net result is +11.5), best game is Georgia (win, net result is +37.6). Overall rating 74.83 (#2 in CFP, variance of 0 place, #2 in both USA and polls);


3. Clemson (12-0, ACC Atlantic) - average margin of victory: 19.1 Offense averages scoring 14.0 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 9.1 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is S Carolina (win, net result is -0.6), best game is Miami (win, net result is +56.1). Overall rating 65.33 (#1 in CFP, variance of 2 places, #1 in USA poll and AP polls);


4. Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten East ) - average margin of victory: 21.0 Offense averages scoring 7.6 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 14.1 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is Indiana (win, net result is +6.1), best game is Michigan (win, net result is +42.4). Overall rating 64.50 (#6 in CFP, variance of 2 places, #6 in both USA and AP polls);


5. North Carolina (11-1, ACC Coastal) - average margin of victory: 20.5 Offense averages scoring 16.7 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 5.3 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is S Carolina (loss, net result is -9.6), best game is Miami (win, net result is +38.1). Overall rating 64.40 (#10 in CFP, variance of 5 places, still undervalued, #8 in both USA and AP polls);

6. Michigan State (11-1, Big Ten East) – – average margin of victory: 12.3 Offense averages scoring 5.6 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 10.1 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is Purdue (win, net result is -8.4), best game is Penn State (win, net result is +41.0). Overall rating is 43.82 (#5 in CFP, variance of 1 place, #5 in both USA and AP polls);


7. Iowa (12-0, Big Ten West) –polls); average margin of victory: 15.0 Offense averages scoring 5.9 points more than opponents average allowing. Defense averages allowing 7.6 points less than opponents average scoring. Worst game is Maryland (win, net result is +6.3), best game is Northwestern (win, net result is +34.3). Overall rating is 42.05 (#4 in CFP, variance of 3 places, #3 in USA poll, #4 in AP poll).


Dropped out: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Florida

I found it interesting to track the teams that missed the playoff cut by a game or two, which results in a 27-team ranking by performance score as follows:

1.  Oklahoma (11-1)  80.92
2.   Alabama (11-1)    74.83
3.   Baylor (9-2)         70.05
4.  Clemson (12-0)    65.33
5.  Ohio State (11-1) 64.50
6.  N Carolina (11-1)  64.40
7.  Ole Miss (9-3)       58.77
8.   Florida State (10-2) 57.28
9.   Houston (11-1)     54.45
10. Navy (9-2)           53.64
11. W Kentucky (10-2) 51.10
12.  TCU (10-2)          47.83
13.  Notre Dame (10-2) 46.22
14.  Stanford (10-2)    44.48
15.  Michigan State (11-1) 43.82
16.  Michigan (9-3)     43.37
17.  Iowa (12-0)         42.05
18.  Oklahoma State (10-2) 41.85
19.  Toledo (9-2)        41.84
20.  BYU (9-3)            38.65
21.  Wisconsin (9-3)    38.08
22.   LSU (8-3)            37.57
23.  Temple (10-2)     34.98
24.  Florida (10-2)      33.38
25.  Georgia (9-3)      32.48
26.  Utah (9-3)          29.47
27.  Northwestern (10-2) 19.13


If the playoffs were expanded to 8 teams, I believe the quality of those games would be superior to what can be produced by the current system.

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