GOP Pre-Convention Look

On August 10, I published an analysis of how the Democrats' nominee, John Kerry, fared from his convention. Now, it’s time to see how Bush fares in his convention.

To be even-handed, I hope to compare most of the same polls for internal data; Marist, Pew, Fox News, the LA Times, the CBS/New York Times, Quinnipiac, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, NPR, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Democracy Corps, and the American Research Group, if at all available.

The starting point for the overall look is, of course, the 3-way and head-to-head poll standings. Looking at the last week of polls, the 3-way position is Bush +1.6, and the 2-way is Bush +1.2. Bush's Job Approval ratings average 50.2% right now.

At this time, 85.0% of Democrats plan to vote for Kerry, 89.7% of Republicans plan to vote for Bush, a 4.7% advantage for Bush.

44.0% of Independents plan to vote for Kerry, 39.8% for Bush, a 4.2% advantage for Kerry.

6.3% of Republicans plan to vote for Kerry, while 10.3% of Democrats plan to vote for Bush, a 4.0% advantage for Bush.

43.0% of men plan to vote for Kerry, against 50.3% for Bush, a 7.3% advantage for Bush.

48.7% of women plan to vote for Kerry, against 43.0% for Bush, a 5.7% advantage for Kerry.

Kerry has a 48.2% personality favorability rating, against 50.6% for Bush, a 2.4% advantage for Bush.

It remains to be seen how the GOP Convention may affect these numbers.