This Hamster is DEAD

In an interview with TIME magazine recently, Senator Kerry pretended not to be aware that President Bush had gained a healthy bounce from his convention.

"I don't know what you're talking about in terms of the Bush bounce. This is a very close race, and I'm not somebody that runs around worried about polls" insisted the Man Who Once Revived The Family Hamster, to assure the MainStream Media that he remains relevant to the race.

But the good Senator mentioned polls, and to that I always take interest. John Kerry may or may not care what the polls say, but I note them all, whether I agree or not, especially the ones diligent enough to show the internal demographics, because therein lies a deeper tale. Over on Polipundit, I have reviewed the bounce and overall poll status.

Over recent years of politicking, there has come to be a useful phenomenon called Exit Polling. Basically, people who have voted are asked to tell how they voted. Assuming their responses are correct, they not only show the final comparison between poll predictions and actual election results, but also the nuts and bolts of how the election played out.

I am particularly interested in the question of turnout, but I will save that part for another day, since it involves, at this time, a great deal of speculation, albeit rational and indicated by established trends. For here, I will simply address the key demographics which have affected elections, and show how the two major candidates stand in those aspects.

There are a number of demographic indicators of interest, but the information is not always critical to election, and in some cases, relevant information is not readily available. For this review, I took demographic data from Democracy Corps, TIME, Fox News, ABC News/Washington Post, CNN/Gallup/USA Today, CBS News, and Newsweek.

The largest group of note are Male voters. Since 1936, a Democrat can win with as little as 41% of the Male vote (Clinton, 1992), and a Republican can win with as little as 43% of the Male vote (Nixon, 1968). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 48% of the Male vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 46% of the Male vote. At this time, President Bush polls 53.0% of the Male vote, to 42.0% for Kerry.

Another important group, of course, Female voters. A Democrat can win with as little as 46% of the Female vote (Clinton, 1992), and a Republican can win with as little as 43% of the Female vote (Nixon, 1968). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 54% of the Female vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 52% of the Female vote. At this time, President Bush polls 48.0% of the Female vote, to 46.5% for Kerry.

The next group to examine is the Minority vote. Exit polls do not always break down by race, but all include a "non-White" sub-total or column. A Democrat can win with as little as 77% of the Non-White vote (Clinton, 1992), while a Republican can win with as little as 10% of the Non-White Vote (Reagan, 1980). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 88% of the Non-White Vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 16% of the Non-White vote. At this time, John Kerry polls 62.5% of the Non-White vote, to 29.5% for President Bush, so again, this key stands for the President.

The remaining groups of note here, are the political parties and their loyalty to their own nominee.

A Democrat can win with as little as 5% of the Republican vote (Kennedy, 1960), and a Republican can win with as little as 86% of the Republican vote (Reagan, 1980, and Nixon, 1968). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 10% of the Republican vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 96% of the Republican vote. At this time, President Bush polls 91.4% of the Republican vote, to 5.4% for John Kerry.

A Democrat can win with as little as 82% of the Democrat vote (Clinton, 1992, and Carter, 1976), and a Republican can win with as little as 10% of the Democrat vote (Bush, 2000). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 90% of the Democrat vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 19% of the Democrat vote. At this time, John Kerry polls 82.6% of the Democrat vote, to 10.0% for President Bush.

A Democrat can win with as little as 38% of the Independent vote (Carter, 1976), and a Republican can win with as little as 44% of the Independent vote (Nixon, 1968). No Democrat has ever lost, who took at least 45% of the Independent vote, and no Republican has ever lost, who took at least 58% of the Independent vote. At this time, President Bush is polling 44.6% of the Independent vote, to 42.0% for John Kerry.

It's well worth noting, that while Kerry leads in Non-White voter support and Democrat support, he does not enjoy the kind of numbers he needs to overcome the deficits in the other areas. Across the board, George Bush enjoys the kind of improvements that indicate a true groundswell of support and excitement.

It remains possible, at least mathematically, for John Kerry to come back and win the election. But to do so, he must address his losses in all categories, and frankly, bringing things back from the dead, whether they are family pets or political hopes, are difficult and exhausting, and require more than a good story and the assistance of a major network.

Maybe Dan Rather can write the hamster's obituary.