The Right Pack

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John Hawkins at Right wing News has his picks for the most likely candidates to claim the 2008 GOP nomination for the office of the President of the United States.

Here are his candidates, and my thoughts on their viability:

1 – George Allen
2 – Bill Frist
3 - Rudy Giuliani
4 – Bill Owens
5 – John McCain
6 – Tom Tancredo
7 – Mike Huckabee
8 – Mark Sanford
9 – Mitt Romney
10 – Sam Brownback
11 – Tim Pawlenty
12 – Newt Gingrich
13 – Tom Ridge
14 – Ernie Fletcher
15 – Haley Barbour
16 – George Pataki
17 – Rick Santorum
18 – Chuck Hagel

“Not Looking Likely To Run At This Point”

a – Jeb Bush
b – Condi Rice
c – Dick Cheney


Personally, we can start by tossing out the Senators and the Congressmen. The last Senator to get elected was Kennedy, and not only will 2008 be far different than 1960, I really don’t see Allen, Frist, McCain, Brownback, Santorum, or Hagel with the kind of charisma to make Republicans look at a Senator and see a Leader, not after the past few Sessions. Gingrich is simply past his time, and Tancredo isn’t strong enough to win his state, much less the GOP nomination. I figure Allen, Frist, McCain, and Hagel will all run in the beginning, until Reality sucker-punches them to realize that Americans have longer memories and a better commitment to the nation’s ideals than they do.

Ridge, Huckabee, and Pawlenty will not run, for various reasons. Neither will Jeb Bush or Cheney. I still think Rice might reconsider, but only if there is evidence that she can be a force, which remains to be seen.

That leaves us pretty much with Owens, Sanford, Romney, Fletcher, Barbour, Pataki, and Giuliani. I agree with what I’ve read elsewhere – Romney and Fletcher don’t have the base to get the ball rolling. If they run, they’ll be out fast. Of the remaining choices, either Pataki or Giuliani will bow out and support the other New Yorker – they won’t feud, so one of them drops early, and my guess is Giuliani will get the nod to go on. My final three for the GOP:

1. Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi (Trent Lott’s revenge)
2. Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina
3. Condi Rice, a late entry after a ‘Draft Condi’ push. I expect her to settle for the VP nomination when the winner is clear, unless things blow the race open.