The Wall Street Journal has sponsored a Zogby poll, looking ahead to the fall elections for the United States Senate.
The gist of the poll is that Zogby expects the Republicans to lose three Senate seats (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee) , but is forced to admit that Tennessee is close enough that Frist could keep it, that Maryland is close enough that Steel could win, and that while two Red states where the Republican is leading are within Zogby’s stated Margin of Error, it is also true that four Blue states where the Democrat is leading are within that Margin of Error. In other words, even the biased Zogby (who arrogantly predicted in Summer 2004 that Kerry would win the White House, and essentially became a DNC cheerleader from that point on) is forced to admit that the Senate is likely to stay in Republican control.
A better-balanced projection, with some good history behind it, is Scott Elliott’s Election Projection, whose Senate projection also points to a 52-47 GOP hold, but on better data. Scott notes that the Democrat gains in Montana and Pennsylvania are “Moderate”, not unbeatable, while the Missouri race projects a “Weak” Democrat gain, which makes it a real race right now.