Friday, July 21, 2006

The NAACP Can Read Poll Numbers

I wanted to make a post in honor of President Bush’s appearance before the NAACP, and I think I found something fitting. I wrote earlier this week about the Job Approval ratings for Bush from all 50 states, courtesy of Survey USA. I noticed some interesting things, when one looks at the breakdown by race. Specifically, Blacks. To hear the Mainstream Media tell it, almost every Black American hates Republicans in general, and President Bush in particular. So it would be unexpected to see him do well with blacks in a Job Approval poll, right? Well, with that in mind, I found a few anomalies worth noting. Yes, on the whole Blacks disapprove of Bush, but it’s not quite the only response.

From the Survey USA overview:

Rhode Island: 26% Job Approval among Blacks, in a state where the total gives him just 23% approval.

Vermont: 29% Job Approval among Blacks, in a state where the total gives him just 27% approval.

New Hampshire: 30% Job Approval among Blacks.

Oklahoma: 30% Job Approval among Blacks.

Texas: 31% Job Approval among Blacks.

Wyoming: 34% Job Approval among Blacks.

Iowa: 35% Job Approval among Blacks.

Montana: 36% Job Approval among Blacks.

Alaska: 36% Job Approval among Blacks

North Dakota: 37% Job Approval among Blacks.

West Virginia: 38% Job Approval among Blacks.

Arizona: 43% Job Approval among Blacks, matching the state average.

Utah: 44% Job Approval among Blacks.

New Mexico: 46% Job Approval among Blacks, 9 points higher than the state average.

Oregon: 53% Job Approval among Blacks!

Idaho: 64% Job Approval among Blacks!

South Dakota: 66% Job Approval among Blacks polled!

OK, so part of this is the uncertainty brought about by the size of the respondent pool, but the next time the MSM tries to sell you that a whole race hates President Bush, just remember what they don’t want to have you notice. Like a big chunk of America. One reason President Bush went to speak to the NAACP, is that the NAACP has discovered they need this President.


megan said...

Politically Blacks should not limit themselves to one party. Why even "big oil" contributes to both parties. Democrats count on the black community as "give me" votes. . . It would serve the black community well to expand and not be taken for granted. I think its a movement, just not a tide yet. The reason I say that is I think the black community is much smarter than Democrats give them credit for.
BTW I always enjoy your articles relating to "polls." Any chance you could take a gander at the TN Senate Race... Ford terrifies me.

Dan said...

This is the funniest post I've read in weeks!!!!!

Drawing encouragement from a 26% job approval rating! Hahahahaha!!!!

And the attempt to act like 66% approval rating in South Dakota, with .6% blacks, in a survey of 600 people, which means they talked to 3 people, means something!! That is the funniest misuse of statistics I have ever seen by anyone trying to be taken seriously!!!

Thank you, thank you, thank you, for posting this on a Friday, so I could get a laugh. I'll be sure to pass this on to others - look for a spike in traffic this weekend!! Y

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Throw in the margin of error, which is +/- 40% when the sample size is 6, as it in states like Oregon and Idaho in this poll, and the MOEs for other small sample results, and you'll have a very accurate report.

Blacks vote overwelmingly Democratic because every once and a while the GOP does insanely politically stupid things like opposing the voting rights act, as it did earlier this month.

The macker said...

Interesting breakdown. Good work!

Dan, You singled out South Dakota to cdiscredit the whole article. Talk about misuse of statistics.

Black leadership isn't buying the MSM assumption that the Dems will take over anytime soon.

Dan said...

He's been invited every year. Normally, he's too busy cutting brush to show up.

DJ Drummond said...

I love it when people ignore the obvious.

To start with, yes Dan/Andrew some of the sample sizes are very small. But you know what, pilgrim? Those sample sizes are not, relatively speaking, any more reliable when AP/Ipsos or Zogby go out and trumpet what "all" Blacks think on the basis of a statistically wobbly result.

What else is interesting, is that there are so many states where Blacks like Bush. I don't suppose the first Black Secretary of State, and the first time a Black cabinet member is succeeded by another Black happen to happen under a GOP President, sends a message of any kind, or that a President who is guided by his faith - for real, not just posing like some - instead of looking for sounbd bytes might resonate with people familiar with living by faith. But Bush is more than what the media shows, and this poll reveals that a bit.

And Dan, this year the NAACP sent a real invitation, not just a pro forma gesture like years past. And being a true gentleman, when the NAACP wanted to finally show some courtesy, President Bush graciously returned it.

I guess that's just a bit tough for you to accept.

Dan said...

Interesting charge there, Mr. Drummond. Would you please show me an AP/Ipsos or Zogby poll, statistically shaky or not, that purports to say what "all" blacks think?

And I mean this question less rhetorically - because you might well have some information I don't - what was the difference in the invitation this year that made Bush accept where he has refused in past years? I hadn't seen anything about that.