Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Scoreboard September 22

Polls, so many polls!

A lot of people are sick of them, but not me, so here we go, looking at the polls I consider relevant.

“Relevant” is not cherry-picking, exactly. That is, I decided to accept the results of any polls which was released in September, includes a breakdown of at least two categories between adults, registered voters, and likely voters, has head-to-head numbers, and shows at least three demographic details. This list includes Fox News, Pew, ABC News, Newsweek magazine, The Battleground Poll, The CBS/NY Times Poll, IBD/CSM, Zogby, and CNN/USA Today/Gallup. Rasmussen, TIME, ARG, AP/Ipsos, and Harris were excluded because they did not include sufficient internal data to support their headline claims.

On the average of these polls, President Bush leads John Kerry 48.8-44.3%. But the real story is in the internal data:

  • Among Republicans, Bush is preferred 92.8% to 03.8%
  • Among Democrats, Kerry is preferred 82.6% to 10.4%
  • Among Independents, Kerry is preferred 44.7% to 41.5%

    So, the turnout for each party remains critical.
  • Men prefer Bush 51.8% to 41.0%
  • Women prefer Kerry 46.3% to 45.8%

    Unless women far outvote men in this election, that works to Bush’s advantage.
  • Whites prefer Bush 54.5% to 40.0%
  • Non-Whites prefer Kerry 64.7% to 27.0%

    Remember that whites are usually 80% of the turnout, and Bush’s non-White numbers are improved from 2000.

    Bush’s Job Approval averages 51.2% right now.

    58.0% of those polled, said they expect President Bush to be re-elected. Only 22.8% say they expect John Kerry to be elected. This could be an important clue about who will actually go vote in November.

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