Yesterday, in the ‘comments’ section of an article in Polipundit, I noted ARG’s nationwide State Polling results, and wrote that ARG had ‘cheated’. That was a little bit unfair. ARG worked hard to produce a comprehensive poll for the Presidential Election in all 50 states plus D.C., and showed their demographics as well for each and every state. That is certainly worthy of praise, and attention. However, I would still have to say that ARG’s self-review before publishing, appears to be on a par with CBS News. I found what I can only call errors, unless I want to be mean and claim deliberate manipulation. Consequently, I took their numbers and adjusted them to match known and more reasonable demographics, which I will explain further as I go on. Over on Polipundit, I am publishing the overall results. Here at Stolen Thunder, I am presenting the individual states’ results.
The first table shows the states as ARG presents them:
STATE…..R/D/I.……ARG RESULT…….EV…………….RUNNING TALLY
Alabama…40/42/18…54-40 Bush…………9……………Bush 009-000
Alaska……26/18/56…57-30 Bush…………3…………..Bush 012-000
Arizona…..43/37/20…49-43 Bush…………10…………Bush 022-000
Arkansas…29/42/29…48-45 Bush…………6…………..Bush 028-000
California…36/46/18…41-52 Kerry……….55………….Kerry 055-028
Colorado….36/31/33…46-45 Bush………...8……………Kerry 055-036
Conn……...28/36/36…39-54 Kerry………..7……………Kerry 062-036
D.C……….09/74/17…11-78 Kerry………..3……………Kerry 065-036
Delaware…32/44/24…41-50 Kerry………..4……………Kerry 069-036
Florida……39/42/19…45-46 Kerry………..27…………..Kerry 096-036
Georgia…..38/42/20….53-42 Bush………..15…………..Kerry 096-051
Hawaii……25/52/23….41-51 Kerry…….….4…………..Kerry 100-051
Idaho……..44/28/28….59-30 Bush…….…..4…………..Kerry 100-055
Illinois……29/42/29….43-49 Kerry….……21…………..Kerry 121-055
Indiana……44/35/21…54-39 Bush………..11…………..Kerry 121-066
Iowa………34/35/31…48-46 Bush………...7……………Kerry 121-073
Kansas…….44/30/26…57-35 Bush………...6……………Kerry 121-079
Kentucky….34/58/08…57-39 Bush………...8……………Kerry 121-087
Louisiana….31/51/18…50-42 Bush………...9……………Kerry 121-096
Maine……...30/33/37…44-48 Kerry……….4……………Kerry 125-096
Maryland…..31/59/10…43-52 Kerry………10……………Kerry 135-096
Mass……….15/38/47…27-64 Kerry………12……………Kerry 147-096
Michigan…..37/43/20…40-48 Kerry………17……………Kerry 164-096
Minnesota…33/38/29…45-47 Kerry………10……………Kerry 174-096
Mississippi…42/42/16...51-42 Bush………..6…………….Kerry 174-102
Missouri……40/40/20…50-44 Bush………11……………Kerry 174-113
Montana……40/29/31…60-32 Bush………..3…………….Kerry 174-116
Nebraska……51/36/13…61-30 Bush……….5…………….Kerry 174-121
Nevada……..40/38/22…47-45 Bush………..5…………….Kerry 174-126
New Hamp…36/28/36…47-45 Bush……….4……………..Kerry 174-130
New Jersey…20/25/55…42-50 Kerry………15……………Kerry 189-130
New Mex…..34/48/18….44-49 Kerry………..5……………Kerry 194-130
New York….29/47/24….40-52 Kerry………31……………Kerry 225-130
N Carolina…34/50/16….49-44 Bush……….15……………Kerry 225-145
N Dakota…..40/29/31….62-33 Bush…………3…………..Kerry 225-148
Ohio……….38/38/24….48-46 Bush………...20…………..Kerry 225-168
Oklahoma….37/54/9…..55-38 Bush………….7…………..Kerry 225-175
Oregon……..38/40/22…45-47 Kerry…………7………….Kerry 232-175
Penn………..42/48/10…46-47 Kerry………..21………….Kerry 253-175
Rhode Isl…..21/41/38….30-58 Kerry…………4………….Kerry 257-175
S Carolina…41/35/24….52-40 Bush………….8…………..Kerry 257-183
S Dakota…..51/37/12…..58-39 Bush………….3………….Kerry 257-186
Tennessee…39/39/22…..50-43 Bush…………11…………Kerry 257-197
Texas………41/39/20…..58-36 Bush…………34…………Kerry 257-231
Utah………..52/23/25….64-27 Bush…………..5…………Kerry 257-236
Vermont……30/35/35…40-50 Kerry………….3…………Kerry 260-236
Virginia…….37/37/26….49-43 Bush…………13…………Kerry 260-249
Washington…30/39/31…44-51 Kerry…………11……..…Kerry 271-249
W Virginia….33/58/9…..46-46 tie……………...5…..…….Kerry 271-249 (5 und)
Wisconsin….32/36/32….46-46 tie……………..10………..Kerry 271-249 (15 und)
Wyoming…..61/30/9……65-29 Bush…………...3…..……Kerry 271-252 (15 und)
So ARG says Kerry would win with 271 to 286 EV right now, which I don’t buy at all.
Over in Polipundit, I noted that the ARG poll does not balance Men and Women voters by the historical measures, and race was not mentioned in the poll’s demographics. I expect that with a base response of 30,600 adults, race was discarded as a factor, but this further complicates a valid review of the stated results. Also, there is no statement about whether the respondents are Adults, Registered Voters, or Likely Voters, so from the size of the base and the lack of specific comment, I presume we are discussing Adults only. This is significant, because almost every poll has shown Bush collecting higher support as you move from Adults to Likely Voters.
Then there is the matter of the party alignment. When all 50 states and D.C. are tallied, ARG counted 41.4% Democrats, 35.5% Republicans, and 23.1% Independents, which is an unreasonable makeup, and clearly biased in favor of Democrats. I went to my own table to Voter Registration (compiled by contacting the Secretary of State for each state keeping such records and noting their alignment as of December 2003, and for states which do not keep registration records by party, noting the party split in Federal Elections from 1994 through 2002), and plugged in those alignments, which balanced things a little better. Using the same party-vote numbers ARG presented, the new tally favors President Bush by 3.5 points, 47.9% to 44.4%, over John Kerry. Here are the results for each state in the new breakdown:
STATE…..R/D/I.……RESULT…….....EV………….RUNNING TALLY
Alabama…39/41/20…54-40 Bush…………9……………Bush 009-000
Alaska……27/17/56…58-29 Bush…………3…………..Bush 012-000
Arizona…..43/36/21…50-42 Bush…………10…………Bush 022-000
Arkansas…34/41/25…50-43 Bush…………6…………..Bush 028-000
California…36/45/19…42-52 Kerry……….55………….Kerry 055-028
Colorado….40/38/22…45-46 Kerry………...8…………..Kerry 063-028
Conn……...26/35/39…38-55 Kerry………..7……………Kerry 070-028
D.C……….08/75/17…11-79 Kerry………..3……………Kerry 073-028
Delaware…33/44/23…42-50 Kerry………..4……………Kerry 077-028
Florida……40/42/18…45.7-45.9 Kerry…...27…………..Kerry 104-028
Georgia…..38/42/20….53-42 Bush………..15…………..Kerry 104-043
Hawaii……23/56/21….39-54 Kerry…….….4…………..Kerry 108-043
Idaho……..42/26/32….60-30 Bush…….…..4…………..Kerry 108-047
Illinois……39/48/13….46-47 Kerry….……21…………..Kerry 129-047
Indiana……52/40/8..…56-38 Bush………..11…………..Kerry 129-058
Iowa………31/36/33…46-47 Kerry..……...7……………Kerry 136-058
Kansas…….46/29/25…58-34 Bush………...6……………Kerry 136-064
Kentucky….38/42/20…62-34 Bush………...8……………Kerry 136-072
Louisiana….28/54/18…48-44 Bush………...9……………Kerry 136-081
Maine……...30/32/38…45-47 Kerry……….4……………Kerry 140-081
Maryland…..31/58/11…43-52 Kerry………10……………Kerry 150-081
Mass……….14/37/49…27-64 Kerry………12……………Kerry 162-081
Michigan…..42/48/10…40-49 Kerry………17……………Kerry 179-081
Minnesota…39/45/16…45-47 Kerry………10……………Kerry 189-081
Mississippi…40/40/20...52-41 Bush………..6…………….Kerry 189-087
Missouri……37/37/26…50-44 Bush………11……………Kerry 189-098
Montana……37/31/32…58-34 Bush………..3…………….Kerry 189-101
Nebraska……50/28/22…63-27 Bush……….5…………….Kerry 189-106
Nevada……..42/39/19…48-45 Bush………..5…………….Kerry 189-111
New Hamp…38/27/35…48-44 Bush……….4……………..Kerry 189-115
New Jersey…20/25/55…42-50 Kerry………15……………Kerry 204-115
New Mex…..33/50/17….43-50 Kerry………..5……………Kerry 209-115
New York….29/47/24….40-52 Kerry………31……………Kerry 240-115
N Carolina…35/47/18….51-42 Bush……….15……………Kerry 240-130
N Dakota…..44/42/14….57-39 Bush…………3…………..Kerry 240-133
Ohio……….37/35/28….48-45 Bush………...20…………..Kerry 240-153
Oklahoma….38/54/8…..55-37 Bush………….7…………..Kerry 240-160
Oregon……..37/40/23…44-47 Kerry…………7………….Kerry 247-160
Penn………..42/48/10…46-47 Kerry………..21………….Kerry 268-160
Rhode Isl…..20/44/36….29-59 Kerry…………4………….Kerry 272-160
S Carolina…39/38/23….50-42 Bush………….8…………..Kerry 272-168
S Dakota…..56/40/4..…..58-38 Bush………….3………….Kerry 272-171
Tennessee…39/35/26…..51-42 Bush…………11…………Kerry 272-182
Texas………39/50/11…..53-40 Bush…………34…………Kerry 272-216
Utah………..50/31/19….59-31 Bush…………..5…………Kerry 272-221
Vermont……26/24/50…40-47 Kerry………….3…………Kerry 275-221
Virginia…….46/36/18….53-40 Bush…………13…………Kerry 275-234
Washington…29/38/33…44-51 Kerry…………11……..…Kerry 286-234
W Virginia….32/59/9…..45-47 Kerry..………...5…..…….Kerry 291-234
Wisconsin…44/41/15….49-43 Bush.…………..10………..Kerry 291-244
Wyoming…..63/29/8……66-28 Bush…………...3…..……Kerry 291-247
With the registration correction, Kerry improves to 291 EV. But there is still a problem with those numbers, not only because they were counting Adults overall instead of Registered or Likely Voters, but because I noticed their strength-of-support numbers seemed very low for what I had seen in internals. I attributed that to the respondent base, and tweaked the numbers to match more conventional strength-of-support numbers, as I have seen since July in every major poll citing that data (Pew, Gallup, IBD, CBS, Fox, Newsweek, Zogby), and with those punched in, President Bush leads John Kerry by 4.7%, 49.1% to 44.4%.
I punched in the consensus numbers for strength of support, averaging them against ARG’s numbers which raised Bush’s support to a point more consistent with the consensus (2/3 consensus, 1/3 ARG), which resulted in the following breakdown:
STATE…....RESULT……......EV………RUNNING TALLY
Alabama……55-40 Bush…………9 EV……Bush 009-000
Alaska………59-29 Bush…………3 EV.…..Bush 012-000
Arizona……..51-42 Bush…………10 EV.…Bush 022-000
Arkansas……51-43 Bush…………6 EV…...Bush 028-000
California…...43-52 Kerry………...55 EV….Kerry 055-028
Colorado……47-46 Bush……….....8 EV…..Kerry 055-036
Conn…….….40-55 Kerry………....7 EV..…Kerry 062-036
D.C…………11-79 Kerry……..…..3 EV…..Kerry 065-036
Delaware……43-50 Kerry…………4 EV.….Kerry 069-036
Florida………47-46 Bush………...27 EV…..Kerry 069-063
Georgia……..54-42 Bush…………15 EV…..Bush 078-069
Hawaii………39-54 Kerry………….4 EV….Bush 078-073
Idaho………..62-30 Bush…….…….4 EV…..Bush 082-073
Illinois………49-46 Bush……….…21 EV….Bush 103-073
Indiana………57-38 Bush…….…...11 EV…..Bush 114-073
Iowa…………48-47 Bush………...7 EV…...Bush 121-073
Kansas………59-34 Bush…….…...6 EV…...Bush 127-073
Kentucky…….63-34 Bush………...8 EV…...Bush 135-073
Louisiana…….49-44 Bush………...9 EV…..Bush 144-073
Maine…….…..45-47 Kerry……….4 EV……Bush 144-077
Maryland……..43-52 Kerry……..…10 EV….Bush 144-087
Mass………….28-64 Kerry……..…12 EV….Bush 144-099
Michigan……..45-49 Kerry………..17 EV….Bush 144-116
Minnesota……47.4-47.3 Bush…..…10 EV.…Bush 154-116
Mississippi……54-41 Bush………....6 EV…..Bush 160-116
Missouri……….51-44 Bush…….…11 EV.…Bush 171-116
Montana……….58-34 Bush………..3 EV.….Bush 174-116
Nebraska………64-27 Bush……..….5 EV…..Bush 179-116
Nevada…………49-44 Bush…….…..5 EV...Bush 184-116
New Hamp……..49-44 Bush…….….4 EV....Bush 188-116
New Jersey……..42-50 Kerry………15 EV….Bush 188-131
New Mexico…..47-50 Kerry.………..5 EV…..Bush 188-136
New York……..41-52 Kerry……..…31 EV.…Bush 188-167
N Carolina…….52-42 Bush……..….15 EV….Bush 203-167
N Dakota………58-39 Bush…………3 EV….Bush 206-167
Ohio……………49-45 Bush…….…..20 EV…Bush 226-167
Oklahoma………56-37 Bush……..….7 EV…..Bush 233-167
Oregon…………45-48 Kerry……..…7 EV……Bush 233-174
Pennsylvania……46.8-46.9 Kerry…..21 EV…..Bush 233-195
Rhode Island……30-60 Kerry…….…4 EV……Bush 233-199
S Carolina……….51-42 Bush…..…….8 EV…..Bush 241-199
S Dakota…………58-38 Bush……..….3 EV…..Bush 244-199
Tennessee………..53-42 Bush…..……11 EV…..Bush 255-199
Texas…………….54-40 Bush………..34 EV…..Bush 289-199
Utah………………60-31 Bush………..5 EV……Bush 294-199
Vermont…………..40-47 Kerry……….3 EV……Bush 294-202
Virginia……………54-40 Bush….……13 EV…..Bush 307-202
Washington………..44-51 Kerry………11 EV…..Bush 307-213
W Virginia…………46.4-46.8 Kerry…...5 EV……Bush 307-218
Wisconsin………….51-43 Bush.…..…..10 EV……Bush 317-218
Wyoming…………..69-28 Bush………...3 EV……Bush 320-218
In the Popular Vote, this adjustment only puts Bush up by 4.7%, but he completely takes control on the EV level, President Bush now winning 320-218 EV.
So we see, the biggest factor in controlling the results, is strength of support. Note further, that I have not adjusted for turnout, which will ( I think) make Bush’s lead even larger.
UPDATE: Rocketman helped me correct my math.
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