Friday, August 11, 2006

Now I Know Osama Is Dead

They know we are winning, and they are increasingly desperate.

The “they” I mean is Al Qaeda and the Jihadists. The “we” is the Coalition of nations which invaded Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, and which has resolved to rid the world of one of the more pernicious threats to innocent people around the world. While I am aware that we still have very little specific information, and that there is still considerable danger – apparently a number of the action cells are still at large and presumably able and motivated to try to carry out their mission in some way – it occurs to me that the past two days has brought a great deal of good news on the strategic and tactical levels of this war. If things are as they appear, ‘we’ the people have made significant progress against ‘they’ the monsters. To illustrate this, since so many people have already pointed out that the terrorists wanted this to be another 9/11, I will point out some of the many differences which tell us some fascinating things about this war.

First, the tactics. I find myself wondering how true it is that we supposedly got an agent inside the terrorist planning. If we did, it appears to mean that the group which planned this was in such straits that they had to recruit people to join in on the plan. That’s a big change from the 9/11 attacks, which were held in close confidence – some of the hijackers themselves did not know their role in detail until right before the event – and whose planners were very careful to hand-pick team members. If there was no undercover agent, then the British and Americans are protecting some very special sources and methods, which is even better news, since that would mean we possess an effective intelligence weapon moving forward for future plans and operations. Incidentally, that’s something else I love about this – in the old days, the governments on both sides of the Atlantic had a bad habit of letting important details slip, so the creeps could learn and adapt. Not any more. I love that British officials understood enough that they could look straight at a reporter and explain, 'You don’t need to know that, boyo.'

And of course, there is the way things played out. It seems that all the planning was done at the theoretical level, with none of the physical rehearsal done for the 9/11 hijackings, nor does there seem to be the redundant personnel available or alternative plan for a fall back. No Khalid to plan this one out for the monsters.

Then there is the strategic perspective to this plan. War is not a game, where every action counts the same, and you win by making a big enough bang. The terrorists have lost their bases in Afghanistan and Iraq, and are having a bad time of it in many other places. The terrorists understand the loss in logistical terms, and are becoming very worried about what happens if this western notion of representative government and armies which serve the commonwealth instead of the loudest mullah catches on in a country near them. Worst of all, the terrorists realize that if the United States establishes self-supporting governments and stable infrastructures in Iraq and Afghanistan, then they can do that thing which is the Jihadists’ nightmare: They might remove their forces from those Middle Eastern territories, as friends with the people living there and the clear victors in those nations. The rhetorical support for the Jihad against the West takes a body blow and then some if and when that happens.

With that in mind, look at this operation from a strategic perspective. The Jihadists could only have hoped for one of two possible responses. They either hoped that the attacks would damage confidence in the leadership of PM Tony Blair and President George W. Bush, or they hoped that the attacks would spur the Brits and Yanks to some sort of reckless action for revenge. Anyone who has been paying attention in the past half-dozen years knows that neither scenario would have developed. Had the attacks succeeded, the American and British outrage would have coalesced into renewed understanding as a whole for why we have to fight this war, and would have led to a more determined, yet still controlled, campaign. We already understand these bastards target innocents and like to saw heads off people if there’s a camera rolling; this would have only confirmed that knowledge and shut up some of the more stupidly naïve speakers on the Left. The terrorists, of course, made the mistake of focusing on their own perspective and not correcting for bias, and they missed the results of the last several elections. To wit, they acted as if Al Gore were the President of the United States, not George W. Bush.

And then there is the cost of failure. Image is everything to a terrorist. Cutting off the head of a helpless hostage is an obscene sin in every culture, which is why the terrorists like it as a message – the greater the atrocity, they believe, the greater the effect of their message. While that is a sick and perverted concept, there is some evidence that it works in the Middle East, or at least works where your choice of government is between arrogant tyrants and intolerant religious fanatics. But the terrorists cannot abide failure. And an international plan which results only in the arrest of most of the planners and participants without even a single murder to brag about, well folks that’s just embarrassing for the terrorists. How do they figure on getting money and political protection if their biggest plans not only fail, but make the target governments look effective and responsible?

Osama bin Laden was a fiendish and evil man, whose plots have hurt countless people around the world, but he was a careful planner and he chose his operatives carefully. The results of this latest plan show me two things for sure; the planners in Al Qaeda or whomever is leading the Jihadist parade these days are of a distinctly poorer caliber of mind than the had before, and the West is more able and effective than before.

14 comments:

HILLARYNEEDSAVACATION said...

great read...

i was simply thankful John the Flop wasn't President, and that the Democrats hadn't 'killed' the Patriot Act...

i do agree with the larger picture.

nearly 5 years since we have had an attack...
doing something right for certain.

i did share your conception with the increased desperation displayed by Iran, Hamas, Hizballah, etc...

i sense the Iraq Liberation, the Votes, the New Gov and Military is putting needed pressure on these Radicals.

their rush to violence-mayhem may hide a very desperate state of mind...

i did like seeing this recently:
Washington Whispers: GOP Voters: Like A Rock

why is conventional wisdom usually wrong?

seems everyone forgot about that old Busby defeat...

Dan said...

That's hilarious work. You have a great comic flair. I loved the part about how if it had succeeded, Bush would not have done something reckless for revenge. Like invading the WRONG COUNTRY??? Who knows, since the terrorists were from England, we may have invaded Ireland? At least Ireland had more of a connection to terrorism than Iraq did . . .

DJ Drummond said...

One pales to consider, dan, what would have happened had Saddam's terror-supporting regime been allowed to continue.

Only a very great fool would still deny the fact that the Ba'ath Party paid for and supplied terrorists. Or that "Al Qaeda" was often a term of convenience, applied or denied as the Arabs found it expedient to claim.

At least, the adults and the veterans understand the threat Saddam represented. But then, perhaps your memory is as poor as your comprehension of History.

Big V said...

Dang it DJ, you make too much sense for some to understand. Where are your conspiracy theories? Where did Karl Rove head quarter from to plot this last situation? What was the design flaw that kept the Bush team from pulling this off on Monday vs Thursday? Without the answers to these questions, how can you expect guys like Dan to understand it all? Get with it man!

the macker said...

Dan,
• Iraq had programs for WMD, if not the stockpiles
• Iraq gave financial rewards to suicide bombers
• Iraq was shooting at our planes
• Iraq permitted terrorist training camps within its borders
• Iraq is on record as having a relationship with al Qaeda
• Iraq harbored terrorists
• Simply capturing OSB in Afghanistan would hardly have ended the Islamo-Fascist menace.

The Left's template simply does not fit the facts.

megan said...

DJ, When you said they acted as if Gore were president... is it also possible they were acting that way because they feel the nation is "cutting and running" ??

DJ Drummond said...

Not really, Megan. I believe the terrorists are worried that America seems to be very much in control of the situation, too strong an image for Islamofascists to stomach. So they sold themselves on the idea that if they hit a bunch of American or British tourists on vacation, that would result in the sort of chaos and doubt that would make America give in to something like the Murtha Surrender or at least dink our image as a power they cannot hope to defeat. If they'd gotten to know any of our troops, they'd realize how very wrong they are about what we are made of, but then a terrorist who gets a close look at a Marine or a Sandhurst grad, does not generally live to discuss their concepts of honor and duty, not that a terrorist really grasps either concept in a real sense.

Dan said...

The familes of those 2 dead soldiers found today, and the victims of the bombings all over Iraq today and everyday, are glad that you feel we are in control.

John F Not Kerry said...

"The familes of those 2 dead soldiers found today, and the victims of the bombings all over Iraq today and everyday, are glad that you feel we are in control."

Comment by Dan

I wonder what would really satisfy your feeble and feverish imagination. Those families know more about honor than you could ever know. You live in a theoretical world, where if perfection in thought and results is not achieved, then the deed is not worth doing. Your thinking is like that of a child, who considers nothing other than his wants, and tries to hold everyone hostage to the idea that the world revolves around him.

We are faced with enemies around the world who place no value on their own life or any others. You are "fighting" the Bush administration for various reasons, while he and our armed forces and law enforcement protect you from those who would not flinch to cut off your head while thinking that they are doing a great deed in the sight of "Allah".

I heard of a great bumper sticker that you and those who think like you should consider: "George W. Bush: Saving your ass whether you like it or not".

Dan said...

George Bush is not saving my ass or anyone else's. Our military is doing that. George Bush is simply following the neo-cons' playbook, and their theoretical world has come apart. The rose petals they predicted have turned out to be IEDs. And DJ thinks we're in control.

John F, you claim to know a lot about me and my theoretical world, but you'd be surprised to meet me, I suspect.

DJ Drummond said...

dan, do you even understand why we have a military?

Do you understand why it is that the military overall LOVES George W. Bush? The way you talk, you'd expect Dubs to be afraid of meeting troops, but over and over again he goes and sees them, direct and in person.

George W. Bush is personally responsible for the U.S. not having a major terrorist attack in 5 years, because he gets what you hide from.

HILLARYNEEDSAVACATION said...

LOL

i hope the Democrat Liberals continue to run on the delusions of 'dan'...

classic...

a parody of a parody

John F Not Kerry said...

"John F, you claim to know a lot about me and my theoretical world, but you'd be surprised to meet me, I suspect."

"George Bush is simply following the neo-cons' playbook"

By Dan

Judging by the fact that you use the word "neo-con" (read "Jews"), nothing about you would surprise me, except maybe that someone might take your ideas seriously.

"George Bush is not saving my ass or anyone else's."

The military only acts on the command of its commander-in-chief.

Dan said...

JF -

Are all neo-cons Jewish? If so, I didn't know that. If not, pretty cowardly of you to hide behind a false claim of anti-Semitism.