Tuesday, November 08, 2005

The Noise To The East, The Silence From The Far East


Paris is burning, or at least a lot of French cars and buildings have come under fire. The response by the Vichy, er, French government has been notably hesitant and timid for a country which has men like the French Foreign Legion at its disposal. Of course, France did exactly the same thing in 1978 when supporters of the Mad Mullah, the Ayotollah Khomeini threw burning objects at police and passing Americans. The French handled that one by arranging for Khomeini to be returned to Iran, and in due course a few tens of thousands died there by the time Radical Islam had secured control of the nation for Allah and the Great Jihad. It’s not unreasonable to say that the next World War began, with a spark tossed and ignored from Paris. The roots of that hatred are now bearing bitter fruit in France, and for the first time since Hitler sent the panzers rolling down the boulevards, the question of the continued survival of France under French rule is in doubt. Sneering snobs that they are, it is still vital to the health of Europe to restore stability to the Croissant Nation.

This front should have been expected. The War we are fighting is not so much a new enemy, as it is the fascists and communists renewing a desperate attempt to prevent the surge of Democratic representation. Appalled at the notion of women voting, of private business flourishing, and the very notion of a government dependent on consent of the governed for its authority, the forces opposed to American-style freedoms have been stunned not only by the success of the U.S. military, but also by the eager imitation of American political representation in Iraq, Afghanistan, and demanded by many in more than a dozen other countries. Small wonder the remaining tyrants have banded together, however unofficially, to defy the tide which seeks to wash away the stench of regimes that never expected to see defiance from their citizens.

The same peril looms over China, which on the one hand represents the largest potential economic force to come to maturity in the 21st Century, yet that same population is invariably going to compare the offerings of American Liberty against Chinese Communism; if Bush succeeds in the Middle East, India and Pakistan, and all the Pacific Rim may join the surge of Democratic Accountability. The only hope for the Politburo is the failure of the Bush Doctrine. And so logic and opportunity to cooperative growth is set aside, in order to press against the wave of change.

The media would have you believe that Bush has failed to sell Free Trade to Latin America, but as Investors.com wrote in a Monday article, “The real story is that 29 very different states — making up 90% of the hemisphere's GDP — endorsed free trade. Even more encouraging, the summit's most articulate advocates for free trade spontaneously came from Latin American leaders whose nations have already experienced free trade. Among them, Mexico's President Vicente Fox emerged as a star, bluntly warning anti-trade factions they are "out of touch with reality."

The reason this matters in the war against the Islamo-fascists, is because they cannot offer a meaningful alternative to Free Trade. In Iraq, as an example, the International Monetary Fund reports substantial progress in establishing a stable economy. The IMF, a dour group of fellows who would be likely to congratulate a Lottery winner with tax liability advisories, notes that in 2004 Iraq’s financial “reserves ended the year well above the floor specified in the EPCA program”. Showing significant improvements from the Hussein regime, “78% of homes have access to piped water”, and “98% of households are connected to the electricity grid”. As for the government stability, Iraq held Parliamentary elections for the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) on January 30, 2005. The TNA elected its leadership, and the new government of Iraq was sworn into office on May 3, 2005. Iraq has a truly representative government for the first time in its history. The IMF noted that GDP growth was 4 percent in 2004, a strong comeback from the years under sanctions and the invasion. The GDP growth is projected by the IMF “to reach 17 percent in 2006 and then decline slowly to 7 percent by 2010”, making Iraq very attractive for investors and showing a very strong business climate. While Inflation remains a concern, the 20% rate for 2005 is a significant improvement from the 31% Inflation rate for 2004. Capital investment is encouraged, as the IMF noted “the high level of bank liquidity”, and Iraqi Treasury Bills offering 4% in 2004, and rising to 7% in mid-June 2005. All things considered, the business climate in Iraq is a good one, which bodes well for standards of living. Also, stability and transparent practices in Iraq are such that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has “requested tenders from international auditors to audit its accounts in line with International Standards on Auditing”, something not yet done even in China or Venezuela.

The significance of this report not only demonstrates the improving economic conditions in Iraq, but shows the ties between economic improvement and social stability. It’s really simple: When a people are free, they will flourish in every significant aspect, and this attracts other people to desire the same. The people of Lebanon are not blind to the terrorist violence imported to Iraq from Syria and Iran, but they also see and understand the opportunities that Iraq now holds, and they want the same for themselves. This is why women in the Middle East are demanding the vote, and why young Iranian men are demanding free elections. They understand that in addition to creating a more responsive government, they gain a choice in setting their own goals and pursuing their own paths to success.

Which brings us back to Europe. Why, you might wonder, is France in such bad shape? Partly, it was the corrupt government which thought it could simply deny a consistent protection of rights, so that minorities see no purpose in supporting the government. Partly, it was the political climate which denied reality, demanding continued use of obsolete and dysfunctional policies of Socialism and Franco-isolationism. And partly it was the arrogant refusal to admit when policies did not work; the same French pride which refused to see the Algerian secession clearly half a century ago, now supposes it can ignore the radical fascism in its own towns simply because it is cloaked in religion instead of a foreign nationalism. The government of France has made no attempt to address the root issues, especially the economic conditions which have driven minority unemployment in France to record levels, along with three straight years of negative relative GDP growth.

The University of Dayton also notes that the French have a poor record in matters of Racism, so that a rotten economy is matched by a sour social environment. And the State Department warned in 2004, that an overt hostility against religious minorities in France, particularly “illegitimate police violence”, was leading to broad resentment against the government at grass-roots levels, and given the recent history of Islamo-Fascist reaction to perceived oppression (as in Chechnya), such a conflagration was certain to occur.

Also, the Al Qaeda attack in Spain, and Chechnya, and London, along with discoveries of Al Qaeda cells throughout Europe, demonstrates that the Islamo-Fascism movement attempts to open a Northern Front. Small wonder; the U.S. effectiveness in Iraq and Afghanistan, no matter what the Liberals say, has been stunning and broad; the terrorists have been forced to seek softer targets in Europe, because in Iraq even the local population has begun to fight back against the terrorists, and the terrorists have seen their own consolidation break down into feuds. The blunt conclusion is, that while resolution of the conflict is still a long way off, the Islamo-Fascists have failed dismally in Iraq, and are attacking targets in Europe to try to distract Coalition allies and redirect the conflict. This can be demonstrated by noting that there is no clear strategy on the Islamo-Fascist attacks in France; as alarming as the violence is, at some point order will be restored and the Islamo-Fascist factions will be no stronger than they were before. What’s more, if NATO understands the nature of the attacks, stronger resolve to stabilize the Mediterranean through eradication of Islamo-Fascism cells and networks is likely, so that pressure on moderate Arabs to establish some sort of representative political reform will be increased and maintained. This will create a natural opposition between Europe and Asia, as China sees a stable and cooperative Middle East as a political and economic threat. Also, Israel is unlikely to approve of any comprehensive Arab unity, unless guarantees are made to ensure Israeli protection from the increased Arab presence. It would not be at all unlikely, therefore, for Al Qaeda and it’s shadow emulator groups to attempt coordination in the future with China, especially to disrupt the royal families in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Now that Iraq is stabilizing, and Europe only a temporary distraction, the last remaining royal Houses will be the logical targets to destabilize the Middle East again, and if the Islamo-Fascists are lucky, reignite the fires seen during Khomeini’s reign. The Islamo-Fascist Mullahs, however, are likely to fail, since they have yet to consider why those fires lost their heat the first time.

A small possibility exists, that the Islamo-Fascists could claim a foothold in South America, through cooperation with governments like Venezuela. However, the cultural landscape there is inhospitable for Jihad, and like the failed attempts to create functioning networks in North America, the Islamo-Fascists do not have the sort of credible ideals to attract significant support, and will find that Islam not only does not, in the main, hold the objectives of Fascism as noble, but in the Western Hemisphere is likely to consider Fascist Jihad as an atrocity, rather than an act of faith.

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