Why the Mandate Matters

Now that the election is decided, leaders in both parties and in political discussions have started to debate the question of Bush's mandate. The extremes run from claiming that the President somehow does not have a mandate, to claiming that he can and should pursue all of his goals and plans. However, it is not correct to believe that the middle between those two extremes is the best result.

First, it's nothing more than a desperate Liberal pipe dream, to think that President Bush does not have a mandate to lead. After all, eighteen Presidential elections were won by a candidate who claimed less than 50% of the Popular Vote, including some who are honored as among our best Presidents. I've already written about that on Polipundit. So, there really is no question that President Bush has a mandate, more than many Presidents.

The real questions should be: What sort of mandate does President Bush own, and what should the Democrats' position be in the next 4 years? Also, since there is a clear sense of division between the Left and Right, what can be done to move ahead?

Simply put, since the GOP controls the White House, the House and Senate, and from that position has increased its numbers in both the House and Senate, the GOP may reasonably be called the Majority Party, who sets the agenda, makes the rules, and runs the show. It's quite reasonable for Democrats to say that the Republicans should be held responsible for whatever happens in the next 4 years, but it's also reasonable that if the GOP will face all the consequences for whatever happens in the next 4 years, then they have every right to tell the Democrats to take the back seat and shut up. This is especially the case after the nasty hypocrisy shown by Democrats, who got a lot of consideration from Bush during the first term, but refused to grant any sort of credit to the President. In consideration of the Democrats' boorish and sometimes thuggish tactics, I suspect that Republicans rallied and Undecideds were swayed to support a man unfairly attacked. But it remains a plain fact, that the Republicans have done a number of things in the past 4 years to work with the Democrats, while the Democrats have done nothing to cooperate with the Republicans, and we now know that they even intended to pretend cooperation in order to hide manipulation of security issues for political advantage (remember the Rockefeller memo?). There simply exists no basis for trusting the Democrats. Fool me once, shame on you, try it again and your name is Pelosi.

The problem with "All GOP Leadership", is that not all Republicans are the same. RINO is not a mispelt African animal, after all. We all know that Senators like Specter, McCain, and far too many others do exactly as they please, and hide behind the party when they run for re-election. A lot of people don't realize that this game has been played for many, many years.

Before I go on with Republicans, I think it's important to note the difference, operationally, between the Republicans and the Democrats, and the difference between the House and the Senate.

Maybe it has something to do with running for office more often than the Senate, but House members are a lot more willing to cross the aisle. It's also probably due to the fact, that with 435 Representatives, it's easier to blend in than in the hundred-member Senate. Pay attention to the news, and you'll notice that the average Senator is likely to spin the party line, while the parties usually send out the leadership from the House. Then again, maybe it's the egos; you hear Senator A and B talk all the time about the White House, often implying they belong there themselves, but the only time you hear about a Representative in connection with the White House, is when someone is discussing the Constitutional Succession of the Presidency. All in all, then, it means that most of the trouble comes from the better-paid, bigger-ego'd Senators.

Now, about Democrats. There's a lot of talk about organization, and in different comparisons each party has its advantages, but in the case of lining up the Senators, there's a clear difference. The GOP seems to go hat in hand to their Senators, asking them to support the President. The Democrat leadership tells their Senators that anyone who bucks against the President (when a Democrat is in office) can expect to lose campaign money and support they need for the bills their state is watching for them to deliver. If I was going to put it on one thing, I think the Democrats learned discipline back in the FDR days, and got it taught again under LBJ, while the Republicans still act like they think they're the minority party. That's one reason why Bush needs to be brash and claim the country for his plans; Bush needs to simply say the Republicans are in control, and he should follow it up with a little meeting here and there, to privately explain to Senators and Congressmen that their futures rest on supporting him. Because Bush can follow through on that threat, when it hits the GOP pretenders, they will realize that Bush is where the money comes from, that his support means winning and his absence wil cost them. Some people think "Bush Dynasty" means that Bush plans on keeping the White House in the family, but it actually better describes the fact that President Bush can make or break the political career of anyone in Washington, and his family will control that kind of influence for a number of years to come, even after he leaves office.

As for the country, there are three critical missions which must not fail. First, Supreme Court appointments must be set up. The Democrats can and will whine, but there are 2 or 3 positions which need to be filled. It doesn't matter who Bush presents, the Democrats will demonize him/her. Tough it out, though, and the nation will be better for it. We need justices who will obey the Constitution, not try to read new "rights" into it.

Second, the Bush Doctrine must prevail in Iraq. Hundreds of millions of lives will be directly be bettered directly by the eradication of structured terrorist groups in the Middle East, and supporting a genuine Arab Democratic Republic is a win for the planet, though every dictator and backwards oligarchy and repressive theocracy will decry it.

Third, there is always a consequence for every action. It is well past time, when Americans in general can trust their government to be responsible, and to demand that our history be celebrated, not perverted. Kids need to be taught what's right with America, to be optimistic about the system and our government, and to judge people as individuals, putting away Class Warfare and the rhetoric of hate spewing from the Left. Liberal values are important, but balance is essential, and frankly, long overdue.

The Mandate matters. President Bush knows it, and we are fortunate that this man, who has met a number of tough challenges already, is up to this one as well.

On Message

Some years back, in the alternate universe I knew as a high school sports official, there was a football game with special significance in the District race and Playoff possibilities. As the Back Judge on my crew, one of my duties was to let the head coaches know when it was time to come out for the coin toss. The Linebacker chosen to represent his team as Captain for the coin toss was charged up for the game, enough so that as the team came down the ramp to the field, the head coach was warning him (apparently not for the first time) to not let his emotions get out of hand, to remember how important it was to stay in control.

The two teams walked out onto the field, and the officials led the Captains to the 50-yard line for the toss. As the two Captains shook hands, the linebacker I had seen being cautioned by his coach grasped his opponent's hand firmly, looked him straight in the eye, and in a voice loud enough to be heard at the sidelines, informed him "gonna f--- you up" .

fwip! went the Crew Chief's flag, and out of the corner of my eye I saw the coach drop his jaw and his clipboard. His team got a 15-yard Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty before even the first kickoff, and they simply never recovered from that.

I mention this, not only because it was one of those interesting things I got to experience as a ref, but also because I sense the same sort of blunder by the Democrats. To be it bluntly, they had a really good chance to win the White House, but started off with the wrong message.

The Democrats had an impressive set of advantages and clever tactics for this campaign: The press was distinctly on the side of the Left, to such degree that Dan Rather kept trying to use forged documents to smear the President, even weeks after admitting they were as phony as his claim to objectivity. Michael Moore had managed to sell a slanderous pack of lies to the world as a "documentary", in defiance of all decency and most Federal Election law. George Soros, not even an American citizen, had personally poured anywhere from 30 to 40 million dollars into a boorish attempt to buy the election. Hollywood, never representative of America, did its best to lie about the President's work and personal character to sway the gullible. Several Democrat-supporting groups compared Bush to Hitler and the GOP to Nazis, even as they physically assaulted GOP volunteers, slashing tires of vans to prevent Republicans from voting, and in three documented cases, fired guns into or at Bush campaign offices (Nazis are as Nazis do, you thugs), as well as numerous vandal attacks and break-ins of GOP offices (If it was wrong for Nixon's thugs to do it, why is it OK for Democrats to do it?). And the Democrats had managed to evade any serious discussion of Kerry's qualifications, working hard to make the election solely an attack on the President. Kerry's questionable claim to his medals was ignored, and when decorated veterans brought up the question, Kerry's attack dogs shouted them down and claimed that while it was critical for the President to answer rumors and unsupported allegations about his service in the National Guard, it was unacceptable for hundreds of war veterans to challenge Kerry's fairy-tale accounts. Kerry's treason, by meeting with Viet Cong leaders in Paris while the United States was still at war in Vietnam and Kerry remained a Naval Reserve Officer, was hushed up. Kerry's membership in a group which advocated assassination of U.S. Congressmen was side-stepped. Kerry second-guessed every decision Bush made about the Iraq War, including the ones Kerry supported when Bush made those decisions. And Kerry continued to press the lie about the "bad" economy, long after its recovery was obvious to everyone not a Liberal lawyer with a huge political ego to feed.

With all these advantages, assisted by Bush's clumsy public speaking and difficulty explaining complex decisions in a 90-second or 2-minute span, Kerry edged to a lead, especially in the Midwest, where it became obvious the election would be decided. Yet Kerry lost. How did this happen?

There are 4 major parts to the election chemistry; Money, Image, the Official Message and the Unofficial Message. Somehow Kerry forgot that the message is delivered on more than one level. Bush was careful to decry the 527's, knowing many Americans disliked the ads. He remained aware, of course, that he could not rein in the Swift Boat Vets, as they were a private group with1st Amendment rights, just as MoveOn.org was. But Bush, who probably didn't like the negative attacks on Kerry (though he did attack his record, which is not a negative tactic at all, by the way), was careful to make sure the American voter knew that the unofficial message attacking Kerry was not coming from him. Kerry, on the other hand, used profanity in describing the President early on, he specifically called Bush's supporters the "biggest bunch of crooks" - Kerry essentially echoed a lot of the cheap shots, and he never bothered to step away from the hate. That tied Kerry to personal attacks and no-class sniping, and it hurt him when it counted.

Bill Cinton defeated a popular President Bush in 1992, using the Economy issue effectively, but never suggesting publicly that he had anything but great respect for the President. That took the edge off some GOP attacks on Clinton, because clinton looked better than the image they were projecting. In Kerry's case, instead of proving his detractors wrong, over and over again he proved them right. He tripped over a Secret Service man, then blamed the other guy. He went to a Wendy's while his real gourmet meal was being prepared on a bus, and blew that photo op by insulting a group of Marines there because they supported the President. He tried to sell exclusive resorts and expensive sports as evidence he was a regular-guy, and he reminded every living person on the planet about his Vietnam experience, long after it had lost any virtue in supporting his claim to a responsible character.

To be sure, there are honorable aspects to John Kerry. He did serve in Vietnam, and he did see combat, whatever else is said about him. He is very supportive of his wife Tereza, and clearly loves his daughters very much. His long tenure as a Senator shows that the people of Massachusetts have repeatedly found him worthy of their trust. But the message John Kerry sent to America, more than anything else, was that he was not qualified to be President. Like that football Captain at the start of this article, John Kerry was chosen to lead his team, but before the contest even began, he set a tone for sure defeat.

Four years from now, there will be another run for the White House. I hope when that time comes again, the Democrats will think longer and harder about the they want to send to America. Defeatism and cheap shots at the Right (supported by 59 million voters this last time) is just going to hurt them before they even get started.

THANK YOU

Want to feel 'elite'? Well , if you're reading this, you are!

I noticed my sitemeter is way down from its normal pace. Small wonder really, since a lot of people were coming by to check on the Reader's Presidential Poll, and my work on the polls leading up to the election. Now that the election is over, small guys like me are, well, smaller. Just sixty people have come by today. Six-oh.

I admit, I was a little depressed when I first saw the numbers. After all, I blog because I want to share my thoughts. But after some thought, I realized that in a way, this site is becoming like an exclusive locale, known only to the truly adventerous and discerning. The people who come here now are the ones who understand the issues better, and who share a common appetite for exchanging ideas and learning. At least, I hope that's the case. I will continue to post on politics, but also on other moral and life issues. Don't forget the comments sections will still be there, so if there is something you'd like to see or want me to cut out, please sound off.

But especially, thank you all for coming by and reading my articles. I really do appreciate it, and hope that I will be a worthy contributor to your reading pleasure.

DJ Drummond

Butterfly Vandalism and Political Myths

Some years back, I learned a bit about Chaos Theory. One favorite parable of its advocates, is the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world can lead to torrential storms in another part of the world. The claim is specious, of course, for two major reasons: First, the planet we inhabit happens to be rather a bit tougher than the delicate balance so often claimed by mental nerfheads like Al Gore and similar Intelligentsia wannabes. Also, the chain of events cited in this type of scenario ignores the effect of other relevant factors. For instance, there are literally thousands of forest fires each year in the world, which are never fought by even a single fire fighter, but they die out because of factors like natural firebreaks, heavy rain, lack of fuel, and wind patterns. A great many logical-sounding explanations simply don't work in the real world. The most vicious butterfly in history remains a butterfly, and there are clear limits to what a butterfly may do, incidentally or deliberately.

When we apply this to Politics, we see the emergence of many patterns and phenomena, but for this article, I would submit that in general, we see three types of politicians: The Selfish, the Idealist, and the Leader. This is not to judge them overly kindly or harshly; each official faces a situation pretty much unique to its time and place. But there is a pattern of method I see in the way these officials address their responsibilities.

The Selfish politicians will meet their responsibilities more or less, but are known for doing things in whatever way gets them credit, and fits into their existing plans. The best recent example of such a politician is President Clinton, who was able to produce legislation, display canny tactics, and get his way even when he lacked a majority of support (note that in neither of his two election victories, did he match or exceed 50% of the vote). But Clinton accomplished no lasting work; as an example, look at his attempt to reform Healthcare. When Clinton's socialist approach failed in 1993, he simply discarded the effort and moved on to other things. In comparison, George W. Bush accomplished more in his first term for Healthcare reform, than Clinton managed in two. Other examples include President Coolidge and President Andrew Johnson.

The Idealist politicians have grand notions of what they hope to accomplish, but often fail to understand the pragmatic requirements, or the limits of what can be done. A recent example of that sort, is President G.H.W. Bush, who envisioned a Middle East at peace after the first Gulf War, but who failed to foresee the enmity of repressive states in the region, or the duplicity of his political opponents. Like Clinton, the first President Bush failed to establish any lasting results from his work. Other examples include President Wilson and President Carter.

The Leaders are politicians who set aside their personal preferences for the good of the nation, who choose a course because it is necessary, and who are willing to face personal loss in order to do what is right. It's no surprise to people who know me, that I consider President George W. Bush such a man, but to present a better example, I would submit Presidents Kennedy and Reagan. While some would suggest that the two men had little in common, I would say that in both cases, what the men wanted when they entered office had to be set aside in favor of what the country needed. Kennedy was a Democrat who cut taxes; Reagan was a Republican who made treaties with the Soviets. Kennedy was willing to risk his political future to face down Khruschev; Reagan was willing to risk his political future to face down Andropov and Chernenko.

The lesson for today? George W. Bush and John F. Kerry are two completely different kinds of politicians. I warrant that Americans recognized the difference, and chose accordingly.

Victory!

OK, assuming John Kerry doesn’t change his mind again, it’s over, and the forces of Light and Goodness have won. And that means I can start thinking about praising the people who called the Scoreboard correctly first.

I took the Popular Vote numbers from CNN, as well as the EV tally (presuming Bush takes Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, since he is leading all three states), and here’s the tentative numbers:

President Bush ======== 58,489,865 ==== 51.4% ====== 286 EV
Senator Kerry========= 54,970,878 ==== 48.3% ====== 252 EV
Ralph Nader============ 391,533 ===== 00.3%

Looking at these numbers, I can begin to comment on the people who nailed either the Popular Vote or the Electoral Vote. I will post another version Friday, either correcting the numbers if they change, or confirming these winners.

No one got it exactly right, but three people got Bush’s PV mark exactly right. And one pundit was less than half-point off.

Bruce Campbell, who posted on October 27 at 3:02 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 47.7%, which was off by an aggregate 0.6 points. Bruce got Bush’s number exactly right, and closer than the other two posters who got it exactly right. If the PV stands up, Bruce is our winner!

Bill, who posted on October 13 at 4:06 PM, predicted Bush 51.5%, Kerry 48.5%, which was off by only 0.3 aggregate points. Well done!

dukeblondie, who posted on October 12 at 2:51 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.6%, off by an aggregate 1.7 points.

And IJB, who posted on October 14 at 9:23 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.3%, off by an aggregate 2.0 points.

Also worth noting, are the people who got the EV pick exactly right:

Anthony Roberts posted at 8:46 PM on October 30, picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-48.5 PV prediction was only 0.6 aggregate points off!

soccer4ever posted at 12:38 PM on October 25, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-47 PV prediction was 1.7 aggregate points off.

Duncan Currie posted at 11:30 AM on October 29, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 52-47 PV prediction was 1.9 aggregate points off.

Finally, Carl Richardson posted at 1:50 AM on October 31, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 50.1-49.3 PV prediction was 2.3 aggregate points off.

Congratulations to our winners! The entire Scoreboard is still up, if you want to check the whole list.

The Scoreboard

ELECTION DAY!!! FINAL UPDATE WAS AT 11:00 AM MONDAY

CHANGES LOCKED OUT AS OF FRIDAY, FINAL PREDICTIONS NOW CLOSED

This board started three weeks out; Close enough to the election, that a lot of people have their idea of who will win, and far enough out that the numbers may not be obvious. I have put up the predictions from everyone who wants to put it up in front of everyone. This board will be on top of this site every day through the election, with the nominations for specific Popular and Electoral Vote balances noted. The winner gets bragging rights (hey, I do this for free), which is a nice prize in the Blogosphere.

Predictions have been added to this board in the Comments section here or over on Polipundit on the "Scoreboard" thread. The predictions include the Popular Vote breakdown expected, the Electoral Vote if desired (also for tiebreakers), and include your email to validate. I will post all predictions, by PV and EV and date and post name.

NOTE: Gates will close for predictions on November 1st!

Through 11:00 AM, November 1:

[] Bush 67.5, Kerry 32 [EV unk] beavereater, 10.29.04, 6:19 PM
[] Bush 63, Kerry 34 [B519-019] Emile Zola, 1012.04, 4:12 PM
[] Bush 63, Kerry 35 [B320-218] Ron Steele, 10.28.04, 4:39 PM
[] Bush 61.5, Kerry 32.4 [B403-130] JTB in Texas, 10.29.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 61, Kerry 38 [EV unk] HL Shancken, 10.17.04, 3:39 PM
[] Bush 60, Kerry 38 [EV unk] Drew, 10.15.04, 12:39 PM
[] Bush 60, Kerry+Nader 40 [EV unk] G Galvan, 10.21.04, 2:46 PM
[] Bush 58.7, Kerry 41 [B395-143] Ovi, 10.12.04, 11:32 PM
[] Bush 58.6, Kerry 41.4 [B465-073] Robert Modean, 10.12.04, 3:16 PM
[] Bush 58.1, Kerry 43.8 [EV unk] Joe Schmoe, 10.28.04, 4:33 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 40 [EV unk] Paula, 10.23.04, 11:03 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 40 [EV unk] Todd, 10.27.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 41 [B312-226] Gabe Gabaldon, 10.29.04, 11:40 PM
[] Bush 57.5, Kerry 40.5 [B395-143] pawnking, 10.29.04, 12:44 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 41 [B396-142] Kevin McClenathan, 10.17.04, 4:05 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 41 [EV unk] Larry Meiring, 10.23.04, 9:28 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B350-188] Randy Nelson, 10.18.04, 6:19 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B347-191] daniel a, 10.17.04, 6:01 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B302-236] Robin Burk, 10.30.04, 6:43 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [EV unk ] Bill Roberts, 10.12.04, 2:11 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [EV unk] Bill K, 10.12.04, 2:29 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 43 [B350-089] Carl, 10.26.04, 1:08 PM
[] Bush 56.6, Kerry 40.7 [B342-196] Spitfire, 10.30.04, 8:33 PM
[] Bush 56.5, Kerry 42 [B359-179] Michael Ihle, 10.13.04, 4:55 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 38 [EV unk], George, 10.23.04, 10:33 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 41 [B353-185] Gordy Hulten, 10.21.04, 4:50 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 42 [B350-188] medscribe, 10.12.04 2:10 PM (1st to cite EV picks)
[] Bush 56, Kerry 42 [EV unk] Another Thought, 10.27.04, 3:20 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B353-185] Judd Bandry, 10.12.04, 6:18 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B342-196] Recycler, 10.25.04, 12:19 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B335-203] Myron, 10.12.04, 3:15 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B335-103] max, 10.30.04, 8:30 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B291-248] Patrick, 10.26.04, 6:23 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 44 [B356-182] Alvar N.C.de Vaca, 10.14.04, 12:32 PM
[] Bush 55.9, Kerry 43 [EV unk] kcourt, 10.23.04, 10:24 PM
[] Bush 55.8, Kerry 42.4 [B318-220] Joe Cox, 10.12.04, 3:34 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 42.5 [B356-182] Jayson Javitz, 10.29.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 43 [B353-185] Lloyd, 10.15.04, 12:54 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 44 [EV unk], D.C. Weir, 10.29.04, 12:08 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 39 [B335-203] Geoff, 10.23.04, 9:25 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 42 [B377-161] Gary, 10.18.04, 7:26 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B440-098] Dennis, 10.18.04, 1:42 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B405-133] Brad Huston, 10.12.04, 2:31 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B404-134] TomS, 10.15.04, 12:14 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B395-143] DJ Drummond, 03.01.04
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B357-181] Iblis, 10.15.04, 7:18 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B350-188] Duano, 10.16.04, 9:06 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B320-218] retired military, 10.15.04, 11:45 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B318-220] Darrell Harris, 10.18.04, 5:21 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [EV unk] GerryG, 10.18.04, 8:36 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [EV unk] Duane Roelands, 10.26.04, 3:10 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B374-164] Cincinnatus, 10.30.04, 8:13 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B371-166] Michael, 10.15.04, 4:37 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B320-218] Schneide, 10.19.04, 6:13 AM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B310-228] Jason dru-net, 10.31.04, 2:59 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B305-233] Solly, 10.23.04, 9:19 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Steve Larrimore, 10.14.04, 12:37 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [B388-150] Rutherford, 10.15.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [B312-226] Andreas, 10.17.04, 12:32 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [EV unk] M Evans, 10.12.04, 4:31 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 48 [B298-220] Linda, 10.31.04, 12:02 AM
[] Bush 54.7, Kerry unk [B295-243] Joel Collinsworth, 10.15.04, 3:37 PM
[] Bush 54.6, Kerry 44.0 [B339-199] Kenneth Gankofskie, 10.24.04, 5:00 AM
[] Bush 54.6, Kerry 44.3 [B396-142] Joe Tetreault, 10.26.04, 2:21 PM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 43.5 [B352-186] Bradley Hampton, 10.31.04, 1:38 PM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 44.3 [EV unk] Chris Hopkins, 10.14.04, 9:57 AM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 44.5 [B393-144] Albert Jones, 10.28.04, 5:04 PM
[] Bush 54.4, Kerry 44.2 [B331-207] WyGuy, 10.18.04, 9:18 PM
[] Bush 54.4, Kerry 44.5 [B374-164] Twi, 10.29.04, 10:16 PM
[] Bush 54.3, Kerry 41.6 [B279-259] Michelle Z., 10.28.04, 4:38 PM
[] Bush 54.2, Kerry 43.9 [B341-198] Shmuel Melamed, 10.24.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 54.2, Kerry 44.8 [B300-238] Norman Conquest, 10.29.04, 1:46 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 43 [EV unk] jvr, 10.12.04, 2:59 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 43 [EV unk] howard the liberal, 10.18.04, 12:14 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B374-164] Blinkblogger, 10.17.04, 11:05 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B352-186] erkoch, 10.30.04, 11:57 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B335-203] pat, 10.24.04, 7:22 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B315-223] Mark L, 10.18.04, 9:56 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B312-226] ddoolin, 10.12.04, 5:11 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [K303-235] Robin, 10.29.04, 1:05 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B300-238] Craddock, 10.15.04, 12:17 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] JB, 10.12.04, 4:18 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Gmac, 10.15.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Julie, 10.22.04, 5:20 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44.5 [B320-218] Vic, 10.16.04, 9:28 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B374-164] bw, 10.30.04, 10:27 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B369-169] CoolPa, 10.19.04, 6:11 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B349-189] Stephen Nichols, 10.15.04, 7:45 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B345-193] Evinx, 10.12.04, 8:44 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B343-195] wendy forward’s mom, 10.12.04, 3:21 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B336-185] fritz, 10.12.04, 2:40 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B331-207] Lyon Jewett, 10.26.04, 1:16 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B320-218] Andy, 10.31.04, 6:55 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B315-224] Bill S, 10.27.04, 3:54 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B315-223] Tony in Maine, 10.29.04, 1:23 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B312-226] Wally Lind, 10.19.04, 6:49 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B311-227] Aaron, 10.28.04, 5:53 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B310-238] Behind Enemy Lines, 10.12.04, 2:56 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B305-233] Adam Lawson, 10.12.04, 3:12 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Todd, 10.12.04, 3:39 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Diamond bar Mike, 10.12.04, 5:26 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] ty gregg, 10.15.04, 3:30 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] cincysux, 10.19.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 46 [B293-245] Jonathan V. Last, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 46 [B291-247] James4, 10.26.04, 3:20 PM
[] Bush 53.8, Kerry 44.9 [B305-233] Greg H, 10.12.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 53.8, Kerry 45.1 [B349-189] Jeff Guentensberger, 10.26.04, 1:33 PM
[] Bush 53.7, Kerry 45.1 [B335-203] Stuart S., 10.24.04, 1:55 AM
[] Bush 53.6, Kerry 45.5 [B317-221] David H., 10.31.04, 12:20 AM
[] Bush 53.5, Kerry 45 [B312-226] PineapplePaul, 10.16.04, 9:44 PM
[] Bush 53.4, Kerry 43.2 [EV unk] A Alejandro, 10.18.04, 10:05 PM
[] Bush 53.3, Kerry 45.2 [B301-237] Steve, 10.15.04, 6:13 PM
[] Bush 53.2, Kerry 46.2 [B311-227] Brantley Smith, 10.12.04, 4:22 PM
[] Bush 53.1, Kerry 45.3 [B301-234] oblomov, 10.19.04, 5:40 PM
[] Bush 53.1, Kerry unk [B310-238] Jack, 10.16.04, 9:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 41 [EV unk] lykhach, 10.12.04, 3:01 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B310-228] Corie Schweitzer, 10.18.04, 5:29 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B291-247] Chemboss, 10.25.04, 12:50 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B290-248] David, 10.31.04, 10:22 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44.5 [B354-184] Michael Fabiano, 10.15.04, 1:49 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B371-167] Gary Matthew Miller, 10.12.04, 4:51 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B374-164] Charlotte, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B325-213] Pete Harrigan, 10.15.04, 5:45 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B311-227] Brandon, 10.24.04, 1:37 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B310-228] Gad, 10.18.04, 4:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B308-230] Kelli, 10.15.04, 7:46 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B306-232] Alexander, 10.15.04, 5:07 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B306-232] Peggy Oberg, 10.21.04, 3:45 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B284-254] MWB, 10.29.04, 10:10 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B276-262] E Tennessee Republican, 10.27.04, 3:32 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Addison, 10.12.04, 2:28 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45.4 [B320-218] Kevin Jackson, 10.12.04, 3:59 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B368-170] Mr. Right, 11.01.04, 1:30 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B343-195] Michelle, 10.12.04, 3:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B340-198] Brent T, 10.12.04, 2:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B334-204] Perry, 10.19.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B332-206] Anthony, 10.18.04, 8:18 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B332-206] cwenger, 10.22.04, 5:15 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B331-206] Sammy Boy, 10.12.04, 3:37 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B331-207] Tom Gordon, 10.18.04, 12:41 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B328-210] totally sirius, 10.12.04, 3:19 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B328-210] TN Conservative, 10.12.04, 3:28 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B321-214] GayPaytriot, 10.13.04, 12:13 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B321-217] Penny Silver, 10.15.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B317-221] AWW, 10.12.04, 2:34 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Dan, 10.12.04, 6:31 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B310-228] jpg, 10.12.04, 3:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B310-165] Jonathan Petramala, 10.31.04, 11:52 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B305-233] INC, 10.24.04, 2:39 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B303-235] Rusty, 10.15.04, 2:38 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B300-238] Southern Boy, 10.20.04, 10:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B297-241] kdeweb, 10.14.04, 1:43 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B297-232] Patrick Casey, 10.24.04, 11:37 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Positivethinking, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B295-243] Doud S, 10.31.04, 12:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B292-246] Dave Schmidt, 10.12.04, 4:05 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B291-247] bob friedman, 10.15.04, 12:00 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B291-247] Scott Rosenthal, 10.28.04, 7:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B290-248] Ellis Wyatt, 10.15.04, 1:35 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B290-248] mategethoff, 10.17.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B289-249] Eric Lindholm, 10.15.04, 7:38 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B274-264] Kent, 10.18.04, 11:55 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Midwest Kay, 10.12.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] blw321, 10.14.04, 1:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Joanne, 10.15.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] CT, 10.27.04, 3:43 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Susan, 10.12.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Cableguy, 10.12.04, 3:40 PM
[] Bush 52.95, Kerry 46.35 [B304-231] HHU TuttoMatto, 10.29.04, 6:46
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 45.3 [B333-205] Gary Smith, 10.18.04, 7:22 PM
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 45.7 [B296-242] GWB Senior, 10.29.04, 6:48 PM
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 47.9 [B295-243] Mark Galliher, 10.12.04, 6:32 PM
[] Bush 52.8, Kerry 44.6 [B310-228] Neville Trinidade, 10.23.04, 10:04 PM
[] Bush 52.8, Kerry 45.6 [B314-224] David Harrill, 10.17.04, 12:26 PM
[] Bush 52.7, Kerry 45.3 [B331-207] Don D, 10.15.04, 1:02 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 45.7 [EV unk] LibraryLady, 10.15.04 6:29 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 45.8 [B356-182] Scott Elliott, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 46.3 [B306-232] Lawrence Person, 10.26.04, 1:22 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 47.1 [EV unk] Dan Frazier, 10.15.04, 1:44 PM
[] Bush 52.55, Kerry 44.95 [EV unk] HolyHumpa, 10.18.04, 4:01 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45 [B321-217] freddy caple, 10.17.04, 8:17 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45.3 [EV unk] Alan H., 10.15.04, 1:33 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45.8 [EV unk] Rocketman, 10.12.04 5:44 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.3 [B317-221] farmGolfer, 10.30.04, 8:36 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.5 [B308-230] Jim Edholm, 10.12.04, 7:54 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.5 [EV unk] Cohiba, 10.23.04, 10:07 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 47.5 [B324-214] Ipse Dixit, 10.15.04, 11:26 PM
[] Bush 52.4, Kerry 46.2 [B310-229] EyesofTX, 10.29.04, 1:14 PM
[] Bush 52.4, Kerry 46.9 [B342-196] matt, 10.27.04, 11:58 AM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 46.6 [B373-162] S Santomauro, 10.12.04, 7:10 PM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 46.7 [B300-238] Richard, 10.25.04, 1:51 PM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 47.0 [B306-232] Go Dawgs, 10.25.04, 1:16 PM
[] Bush 52.2, Kerry 47.0 [B307-231] JeanneB, 10.26.04, 2:04 PM
[] Bush 52.2, Kerry 47.0 [B288-250] CGB54, 10.15.04, 10:00 PM
[] Bush 52.1, Kerry 46.0 [B360-178] AuH2Orepublican, 10.28.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 52.1, Kerry 46.8 [EV unk] nwoods, 10.28.04, 4:42 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [B320-218] John K., 10.12.04, 2:43 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [B300-238] Grumps, 10.12.04, 7:02 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] RAZ, 10.12.04, 3:25 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] jbas, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Sau-Wing Lam, 10.15.04, 12:07 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B371-168] CA Conservative, 10.13.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B363-175] Blackjack, 10.28.04, 5:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B347-191] Mike in Ohio, 10.29.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B339-199] Lyford, 10.15.04, 1:50 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B338-200] Albert Hodges, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B327-211] Bill W., 10.12.04, 3:24 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B325-213] Spike, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B324-214] Terry Kelly, 10.12.04, 2:28 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B324-214] BillyW, 10.13.04, 5:59 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B323-215] Eric W, 10.15.04, 1:31 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B316-242] Gary Lewis, 10.18.04, 9:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Shawn M, 10.15.04, 6:52 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Tstoelting, 10.18.04, 6:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B310-228] bdog57, 10.27.04, 3:29 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Noel, 10.31.04, 12:39 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B306-232] Joe, 10.18.04, 5:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Pericles, 10.12.04, 8:11 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B289-249] Brian Barker, 10.18.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B280-258] Danny Tesvich, 10.27.04, 3:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] NYC Steve, 10.12.04, 1:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Jason, 10.12.04, 4:20 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Mark, 10.15.04, 1:00 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] thomas, 10.18.04, 11:50 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Bob Cmelak, 10.18.04, 2:46 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46.5 [B316-222] pduffau, 10.28.04, 10:59 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B349-189] d sherwood, 10.30.04, 11:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B348-190] William Kristol, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B332-206] DarthKosh, 10.12.04, 7:04 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B331-207] Chris, 10.25.04, 1:46 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B326-212] UAW_republican, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B325-218] Ken, 10.14.04, 12:36 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B317-221] Section 9, 10.29.04, 1:32 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] JC, 10.24.04, 4:39 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Fred Barnes, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Athena, 10.28.04, 5:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Jayson’s girl Kim, 10.30.04, 11:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B305-233] Ace, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B305-233] PJO, 10.12.04, 2:13 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Gactimus, 10.12.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Duncan, 10.12.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B299-239] ravi, 10.18.04, 12:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B297-241] Gordon Shumway, 10.16.04, 1:12 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] John Cox, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] SamuelV, 10.12.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] awr000, 10.18.04, 12:23 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] reliapundit, 10.24.04, 10:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B295-243] Jean Dussault, 10.18.04, 5:58 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B295-242] Jeroboam, 10.29.04, 5:58 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B294-244] Pollmaniac, 10.12.04, 3:38 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Knighthawk, 10.12.04, 2:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B290-248] wendy forward, 10.12.04, 3:18 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B289-249] Mart Martin, 10.15.04, 12:57 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B289-249] M.E., 10.22.04, 5:37 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B286-252] Duncan Currie, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B285-249] Steve Plunk, 10.12.04, 3:28 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B284-249] Frank, 10.12.04, 2:54 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B284-254] Guido Sandulli, 10.12.04, 2:16 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B283-250] Jim Harvey, 10.12.04, 2:34 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B270-268] Patrick, 10.27.04, 1:22 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] Mark, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [EV unk] Rick, 10.27.04, 8:55 AM
[] Bush 51.9, Kerry 47.1 [B284-254] gpapa, 10.17.04, 12:41 AM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 46.2 [B317-221] Eric Soderlund, 10.12.04, 3:01 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 46.3 [B355-183] Dave, 10.14.04, 4:03 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.1 [B311-227] Ross, 10.18.04, 12:35 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.2 [B296-242] PhillyScott, 10.30.04, 7:35 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.8 [B306-232] Todd Schmidt, 10.26.04, 1:56 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 46.5 [B323-215] BoomerBob, 10.15.04, 12:41 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 46.6 [B291-247] CJ, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Paul Deignan, 10.18.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 47.1 [B292-246] Niccolo Machiavelli, 10.24.04, 5:53 AM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 46.8 [B306-232] Jim Durbin, 10.26.04, 1:09 PM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 47.2 [B306-232] Moqul, 10.17.04, 12:51 PM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 48.1 [B303-235] Oak Leaf, 10.30.04, 7:09 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 46.5 [B305-233] Nick in NY, 10.16.04, 4:32 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47 [B294-244] irish guard, 10.12.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.2 [B291-247] John Adams, 10.27.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.3 [B297-241] dlacy, 10.15.04, 1:24 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B312-226] Morrie, 10.19.04, 8:49 AM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B310-220] Eye Doc, 10.15.04, 1:08 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B310-228] STLScott, 10.27.04, 3:30 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B276-262] ripley, 10.25.04, 4:15 PM
[] Bush 51.5. Kerry 48.5 [B296-242] Bill, 10.13.04, 4:06 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 46.3 [B322-216] IJB, 10.14.04, 9:23 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 46.6 [B344-194] dukeblondie, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 47.7 [B321-217] Bruce Campbell, 10.27.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.3 [B305-233] Glacomo, 10.29.04, 4:46 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.4 [B322-216] ECS, 10.14.04, 1:56 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.5 [B314-224] Doug, 10.29.04, 8:33 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.8 [B301-237] MichaelK, 10.15.04, 4:49 PM
[] Bush 51.25, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] taino, 10.15.04, 12:57 PM
[] Bush 51.25, Kerry 47.75 [EV unk] Darwin Finch, 10.12.04, 2:41 PM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.3 [B311-227] Kip Miller, 10.24.04, 2:57 AM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.4 [B295-243] Jon, 10.28.04, 1:03 AM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 48.0 [B279-259] Charles Fulner, 10.12.04 3:31 PM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 48.9 [B296-242] Finnman, 1028.04, 5:03 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 46.4 [B298-240] Joe, 10.12.04, 3:27 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Sean, 10.27.04, 2:50 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 47.1 [B306-232] Barry Johnson, 10.15.04, 1:34 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 45 [B299-239] MEC2, 10.15.04, 5:45 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B334-208] MikeKS, 10.13.04, 3:56 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Modad, 10.30.04, 11:50 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B307-231] Evan3457, 10.12.04, 4:35 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B307-231] Martin Karo, 10.19.04, 4:30 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B306-232] Alanb, 10.13.04, 4:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B305-233] Jim, 10.27.04, 4:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B301-237] Violent Kitten, 10.12.04, 3:23 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B300-238] JPSchroer, 10.12.04, 2:40 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B297-241] WinstonPundit, 10.19.04, 5:54 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Texas_Dawg, 10.15.04, 5:23 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B323-215] Gregg the Obscure, 10.17.04, 9:31 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B311-227] Jeff M, 10.12.04, 3:22 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B311-227] Kent Alcott, 10.15.04, 10:07 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B310-228] Ray, 10.25.04, 12:07 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B301-237] Brandon, 10.12.04, 10:37 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B300-238] J, 10.14.04, 11:12 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B298-240] Montyf13, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B297-241] Michael, 10.15.04, 9:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Dennis Strickland, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Smooth Jazz, 10.12.04, 2:35 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] tester, 10.24.04, 4:28 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Armin Tamzarian, 10.28.04, 4:38 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B295-243] Mike Maurer, 10.12.04, 2:52 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Lawson Lambert , 10.19.04, 2:46 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B286-252] soccer4ever, 10.25.04, 12:38 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B285-250] Mikey, 10.13.04, 5:29 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B282-256] gavin, 10.18.04, 5:19 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B276-262] Mark L., 10.27.04, 9:48 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B312-226] Rich F, 10.15.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B306-232] Excelsior, 10.27.04, 11:19 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] Dominick S., 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] mike the analyst, 10.21.04, 11:27 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B298-240] Rachel DiCarlo, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B297-241] Michael Call, 10.15.04, 6:20 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] SGG, 10.12.04, 3:00 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] Paul, 10.24.04, 10:19 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] VACons, 10.26.04, 8:02 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B295-243] Van Pham, 10.12.04, 2:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B292-246] Larry, 10.15.04, 3:31 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B291-247] JB, 10.12.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B290-248] RoBear, 10.12.04, 3:18 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [EV unk] Jerryx, 10.31.04, 2:33 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B310-228] Dennis Logue, 10.27.04, 9:56 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B304-234] Dan Judd, 10.29.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B286-252] Anthony Roberts, 10.30.04, 8:46 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B283-255] Trey Jackson, 10.28.04, 10:34 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 49 [B271-267] David Skinner, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50.9, Kerry 46.5 [B317-221] Tim McDonald, 10.17.04, 1:43 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.4 [B322-216] Marc, 10.12.04, 2:37 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.5 [B296-242] Thaddeus Billman, 10.31.04, 12:09 AM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.8 [B307-231] Ben Maller, 10.31.04, 12:18 AM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.2 [B301-237] Doc Steve, 10.23.04, 9:39 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.6 [B291-247] David M. McClory, 10.30.04, 11:29 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 47.2 [B291-247] Rick Hine, 10.12.04, 7:41 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.2 [B300-238] George Tobin, 10.27.04, 3:34 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3 [B276-249] William Winfield, 10.29.04, 1:51 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.5 [B292-246] Scott Carlson, 10.18.04, 5:12 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.5 [B374-164] Polish Immigrant, 10.30.04, 11:00 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] MD, 10.24.04, 8:32 AM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.8 [B296-242] basokla, 10.27.04, 4:06 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B304-238] T Brewer, 10.14.04, 3:53 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B302-236] Michael Fabiano, 10.14.04, 10:55 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B300-238] Pete Gardiner, 10.31.04, 10:30 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48.5 [B284-254] Keith, 10.18.04, 12:02 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48.5 [EV unk] badriverdave, 10.12.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 49 [EV unk], Juristex, 10.18.04, 6:39 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 49.5 [B296-242] george purcell, 10.30.04, 11:46 PM
[] Bush 50.4, Kerry 47.3 [B296-242] Jeff, 10.24.04, 10:28 PM
[] Bush 50.4, Kerry 48.6 [B306-232] Will Franklin, 10.29.04, 2:13 PM
[] Bush 50.3, Kerry 48.8 [B273-265] William m Johnson, 10.24.04, 11:00 AM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 47.5 [B280-258] Leonard, 10.29.04, 8:49 AM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 48 [B279-259] Paul, 10.12.04, 10:58 PM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.6 [EV unk] Ace Perry, 10.18.04, 12:12 PM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 49.0 [K311-227] JosephA, 10.30.04, 8:04 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48 [B291-247] LogCabin, 10.12.04, 10:48 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.1 [EV unk] Joe Rambus, 10.14.04, 12:52 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.2 [B270-268] The Mose, 10.12.04, 2:29 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.5 [B285-254] Obsidian Order, 10.21.04, 8:08 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.1 [B276-262] John Kim, 10.28.04, 3:53 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.3 [B286-252] Carl Richardson, 10.31.04, 1:50 AM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.9 [B284-253] GOP Wins, 10.12.04, 2:14 PM
[] Bush 50.04, Kerry 47.92 [B284-254] Pat, 10.13.04, 12:04 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Wes Wetherell, 10.18.04, 8:48 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Pat Hajovsky, 10.12.04, 7:54 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 46 [B297-241] Howard, 10.27.04, 3:23 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Nahanni, 10.15.04, 5:10 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B300-238] Ryan, 10.12.04, 2:53 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B291-247] Tom, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B291-247] VictoryArgus, 10.23.04, 9:19 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B287-251] Kevin Martin, 10.12.04, 3:04 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B284-254] Chris Atkins, 10.12.04, 2:17 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B273-265] Mike Paranzino, 10.30.04, 11:42 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [EV unk] ras, 10.18.04, 12:26 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48.5 [B305-233] J Boz, 10.12.04, 9:05 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48.5 [B303-235] Paul Bauer, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B297-241] Michael Goldfarb, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B296-242] John, 10.18.04, 8:24 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B296-242] Terry Eastland, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B284-254] Gerry Owen, 10.14.04, 4:28 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B284-254] Dutch Buckhead, 10.12.04, 3:36 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B281-257] Matthew Continetti, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B276-262] Chas, 10.12.04, 6:21 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B271-267] Nathan Lim, 10.12.04, 2:49 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [EV unk] News guy, 10.14.04, 1:04 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Ebon, 10.30.04, 4:56 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 50 [B285-253] Jack, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 50 [T269-269] Katherine Mangu-Ward, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 50 [EV unk] Arron Mathew Arnwine, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 49.9, Kerry 48.1 [B295-243] C.H. Truth, 10.12.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 49.9, Kerry 49.1 [B283-255] Richard Starr, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 46 [B290-248] Jacob Swain, 10.28.04, 4:54 PM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 47.9 [B310-228] darkgenius, 10.28.04, 6:59 PM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 48.8 [B273-265] Ed Wagner, 10.24.04, 4:37 AM
[] Bush 49.7, Kerry 47.9 [B309-229] Nathan, 10.30.04, 7:12 PM
[] Bush 49.7, Kerry 47.9 [B296-242] RRSchwab, 10.15.04, 8:22 PM
[] Bush 49.6, Kerry 47.2 [B290-248] JL in Berkeley, 10.18.04, 10:56 PM
[] Bush 49.6, Kerry 48.2 [K279-259] David#1, 10.29.04, 7:52 AM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B310-228] Mike G, 10.30.04, 9:20 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B295-243] The Opinionator, 10.26.04, 1:09 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B270-267] John Berner, 10.22.04, 6:15 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 49 [B285-253] Ben Bauman. 10.17.04, 11:58 AM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 49 [B272-260] A Tom C, 10.29.04, 2:56 PM
[] Kerry 49.5, Bush 49.5 [EV unk] David S. Lott, 10.12.04, 3:55 PM
[] Bush 49.46, Kerry 49.27 [B276-262] Ed Mick, 10.29.04, 12:26 AM
[] Bush 49.4, Kerry 48.2 [K277-261] Ryan, 10.23.04, 11:55 PM
[] Bush 49.4, Kerry 49.1 [B284-254] excelsior, 10.14.04, 9:55 PM
[] Bush 49.2, Kerry 48.1 [EV unk] Brian, 10.27.04, 4:58 PM
[] Bush 49.2, Kerry 48.6 [B280-258] Rezuls, 10.24.04, 8:00 PM
[] Bush 49.1, Kerry 48.7 [B277-261] Patrick, 10.27.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 44 [B304-234] Donovan, 10.26.04, 7:55 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 47 [B274-264] Will, 10.18.04, 1:39 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 48 [B280-258] Kenny, 10.12.04, 2:53 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 48.5 [B289-249] RM Stanley, 10.29.04, 1:02 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [B278-260] Adrian, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [T269-269] Tim Cameron, 10.13.04, 12:32 AM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Textbook Stupidity, 10.12.04, 3:21 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Senator Spitball, 10.12.04, 3:34 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [B274-264] ubaldus, 10.14.04, 3:31 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [B271-267] Daisy, 10.18.04, 6:17 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [T269-269] Slickrock, 10.12.04, 2:21 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K276-262] Ben, 10.12.04, 3:17 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K295-243] Matt Labash, 10.29.04, 11:30 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K300-238] Karl Marx, 10.12.04 2:10 PM
[] Kerry 50.5, Bush 49 [K299-239] Eric, 10.12.04, 9:32 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 49 [K289-249] Harold Showalter, 10.20.04, 1:47 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 49 [K306-232] mac, 10.18.04, 8:27 PM
[] Bush 48.8, Kerry 48.7 [K278-260] Cory, 10.25.04, 4:27 PM
[] Kerry 49.4, Bush 48.8 [B270-267] David Tell, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 49.7, Bush 48.8 [B276-261] Gameboy, 10.12.04, 10:05 PM
[] Kerry 49.8, Bush 48.8 [K289-249] Brian Alexander, 10.12.04, 5:13 PM
[] Kerry 49.3, Bush 48.7 [K294-244] Verniebaby, 10.30.04, 10:38 PM
[] Bush 48.6, Kerry 48.3 [B270-268] MG, 10.14.04, 12:38 PM
[] Kerry 49.9, Bush 48.6 [K302-233] p.lukasiak, 10.18.04, 6:42 PM
[] Kerry 48.75, Bush 48.5 [K274-264] Shawn Showers, 10.18.04, 6:02 PM
[] Kerry 50.5, Bush 48.5 [K296-242] mark, 10.18.04, 5:58 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 48 [K272-268] Ripple180, 10.29.04, 7:20 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 48 [EV unk] Lee, 10.31.04, 5:33 AM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 48 [K284-254] Jack, 10.12.04, 7:49 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 48 [K291-247] Stephen Hayes, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 48 [K277-261] Becky, 10.18.04, 6:01 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 48 [K284-254] tired of blogs, 10.28.04, 10:46 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 48 [EV unk] Susan Petrarca, 10.23.04, 11:00 PM
[] Kerry 49.1, Bush 47.9 [K306-232] Jason R., 10.29.04, 10:49 AM
[] Kerry 50.2, Bush 47.6 [K285-253] akaDoug, 10.12.04, 6:12 PM
[] Kerry 48.1, Bush 47.4 [K278-260] Phillipe, 10.12.04, 3:35 PM
[] Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.2 [K330-208] Dizzy, 10.18.04, 6:07 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [B284-244] Craig Edwards, 10.24.04, 10:09 AM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [K280-258] Dan, 10.14.04, 11:18 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [K285-253] Victorino Matus, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 47 [K297-241] Steve, 10.29.04, 7:23 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 47 [K274-264] seaprog, 10.18.04, 6:19 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 47 [K291-247] freddyd, 10.12.04, 4:36 PM
[] Kerry 51.7, Bush 46.5 [K288-250] Ted666, 10.28.04, 1:19 PM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 46 [K289-249] Howie, 10.18.04, 6:03 PM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 46 [K322-216] Babak Talebi, 10.18.04, 5:03 PM
[] Kerry 53.5, Bush 45.6 [K290-248] CalDoc, 10.18.04, 6:02 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K317-221] Sailships, 10.12.04 3:10 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K390-148] Bikram Simpson, 10.18.04, 6:17 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K390-148] Bob, 10.18.04, 6:46 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K330-208] Liberal Chris, 10.14.04, 12:51 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 44 [EV unk] Ali Karim Bey, 10.15.04, 12:02 PM
[] Nader 65, B 24, K 11 [N227 B207 K104] Marcin,
[] Kerry 96, Bush 02 [EV unk] pighound, 10.19.04, 4:45 PM

There were 485 predictions, with an average breakdown of 51.4% Bush, 46.0% Kerry (EV 303.5-230.5 Bush).

There have been 341 predictions since the final Presidential Debate, averaging 52.0% Bush, 46.5% Kerry (EV 304.4-233.2 Bush).

425 predicted Bush would win both the PV and EV,
39 predicted Kerry would win both the PV and EV,
5 predicted Bush would win the PV but Kerry the EV,
6 predicted Kerry would win the PV but Bush the EV,
2 said the PV would be a tie, but Bush would win the EV,
1 said Kerry would win the PV but the EV would be a tie,
1 said Bush would win the PV but no one would reach 270 EV,
1 said Nader would win the PV but no one would reach 270 EV, and
5 said both the PV and EV would result in a tie.

405 said Bush would take at least 50% of the PV, while 13 said Kerry would take at least 50% of the PV. 7 said Bush would take at least 60% of the PV, while 1 said Kerry would take at least 60% of the PV.


OK, that's the picks from our readers! I'm keeping the Scoreboard on top over here through the end of the week, and I will note the results from Election Day.

As of Friday, corrections or alterations to existing predictions were locked out; no more changes may be made. Original predictions were close this morning, Monday, November 1.

Closest guesses will be praised, worst guesses will be mocked (see how crazy at least one guess is, already!).

Something Fun to Pass the Time

OK, first a caveat: This is NOT a scientific, trustworthy poll. This is a “Time to Kill While I Wait For Hard Results” activity.

AOL wants people to say how they voted, and they have an exit poll of sorts up for that job. Just go here, And tell ‘em how you voted. The results are not scientific, but they are interesting and illustrate a trend. As of 1:30 PM, over 170,000 votes had been received, and nationally the President leads Kerry 57% to 41%. Here are the state results from AOL (early, non-scientific, remember):

Alabama 58-41 Bush
Alaska 68-32 Bush
Arkansas 61-38 Bush
Arizona 62-37 Bush
California 53-46 Bush !!!
Colorado 58-40 Bush
Connecticut 52-46 Bush
Delaware no responses
D.C. 50-48 Kerry
Florida 57-42 Bush
Georgia 66-32 Bush
Hawaii 59-39 Bush
Idaho 68-32 Bush
Illinois 54-44 Bush!!!
Indiana 67-31 Bush
Iowa 56-42 Bush
Kansas 62-37 Bush
Kentucky 62-36 Bush
Louisiana 72-27 Bush
Maine 51-47 Bush
Maryland 59-39 Bush
Massachusetts 50-48 Kerry
Michigan 55-43 Bush!!!
Minnesota 53-46 Bush
Mississippi 77-22 Bush
Missouri 61-37 Bush
Montana 64-33 Bush
Nebraska 67-32 Bush
Nevada 59-39 Bush
New Hampshire 52-42 Bush
New Jersey 55-43 Bush!!!
New Mexico 58-40 Bush
New York 52-46 Kerry
North Carolina 63-35 Bush
North Dakota 65-34 Bush
Ohio 59-40 Bush
Oklahoma 70-28 Bush
Oregon 56-42 Bush
Pennsylvania 53-45 Bush!!!
Rhode Island 52-45 Kerry
South Carolina 69-29 Bush
South Dakota 71-27 Bush
Tennessee 67-32 Bush
Texas 69-29 Bush
Utah 65-31 Bush
Vermont 49-48 Kerry
Virginia 62-35 Bush
Washington 56-41 Bush
West Virginia 61-37 Bush
Wisconsin 58-40 Bush
Wyoming 74-24

President Bush is projected (by this poll) to win, 57-41% PV and 482-056 EV. Doesn’t that look nice?

Osama and the Other Cowards

Some years back, I took a strong interest in History. Part of it fit my personal interest in following trends and patterns; people are very habitual, even in groups, and what they do, they are likely to repeat. I also enjoyed the lessons of significant actions, many times from initial points which did not seem as vital as they later proved. But I also found it intriguing, how many times people chose to ignore History, replacing it with specious flotsam they preferred to watch, or else simply guessing at their steps and courses. This proves particularly true in Politics, where so many make their fortune through manipulation and deceit.

But that deceit often is played against oneself, and that very often when we come across the foreign culture. I am presently reading a history of crime syndicates in China, and when I reached the section regarding the Boxer Rebellion, I was struck by the inability of East and West to understand the other side’s reason and motive. I see the same self-blinding attitude in the First and Second World Wars, in the Rise and Fall of Communism (and before them the great Trusts of Europe and America), and in the arrogance of the over-weening Federal government here in America, and the oppressive appetite of the United Nations, more for fraud and self-advancement, than ever for peace and raising the level of human welfare.

This past week, Osama bin Laden made a blatant and clumsy effort to influence the Presidential elections. Most Americans immediately understood his motive and, whatever their preference, have made sure to keep the Mad Mullah’s intentions and preferences out of their decisioning. It is important, however, to consider just why bin Laden thinks this tape he has released might work for him, anyway.

Many people understand that Osama bin Laden is very intelligent. He is college-educated, speaks a number of languages, and is trained to think mathematically, having an engineering background. Ironically, the man started his life preparing to build and establish things, rather than his later career of killing and destroying. But many people fail to understand that Osama bin Laden not only has no experience with Western Culture, he went out of his way to eschew it. This may be well for his perverted version of Islam, but it is rank foolishness if you want to know your opponent. Unfortunately, Osama became a force in Terrorism just as Bill Clinton was taking office. In Clinton’s defense, any American President would have been unlikely to recognize the full effect of Terrorism’s new evolution, but by 1995, Clinton was clearly aware that Al Qaeda existed as a new sort of Terrorist threat, an independent multi-national organization, dedicated to aims hostile to U.S. interests and security. Worse, Clinton’s habit to window-dressing his actions to look good, no matter how futile in reality, seemed to Osama to mirror the actions taken by the Saudi and Pakistani governments; face-saving measures and nothing more. This made Al Qaeda bolder and more aggressive. On September 11, 2001, we discovered the level of his new braggadocio.

Fortunately for us, the nation had a new leader. If George W. Bush has his flaws (which he does), at the least he understands a few things about National Security, and he has the right temperament for such as crisis as 9/11. Even though Democrats chastised him for being unwilling to scare a roomful of school children (apparently believing that a mad dash without knowing what to do, was somehow preferable to letting the Secret Service and his staff coordinate his next actions), President Bush quickly isolated the areas of attack, grounding air traffic first in the stricken area, then nationwide to prevent further potential attacks (and we know from the capture and interrogation of Khalid Mohammed, that exactly such follow-up attcks were foiled by Bush’s quick thinking). He took all the immediate actions against Al Qaeda which were possible (such as seizing bank accounts and ordering a coordination of available intelligence on the group in connection with the known facts) , and planned a serious campaign for taking out major Terrorist groups and their support. Whatever your opinion of the War on Terror, from Osama bin Laden’s perspective, it has been a nightmare, as his financial and logistic base have been wiped out. How many people, I wonder, have understood that a videotape is the best Osama can do, having lost most of the means to strike at the United States as he would prefer to do? How many people understand the significance, that the man who boasted loudly that he wished to die as a martyr in the war against America, now suggests he would like to negotiate with the U.S.?

There are several critical lessons for Americans to understand about Osama bin Laden. One of them, is that Osama represents no country, and only a perversion of Islam. He has been able to poison places like Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past, and many of the terrorists still warring in Iraq are loyal to Osama or men just like him. But the average Arab has no love for this murderer, and anyone with a sense of Islam as The Prophet taught it, knows that Osama is as much the infidel, as Saddam was, or as any false prophet. Some of the Muslim nations have voiced against the United States and appeared to support Osama, but that was only for their own advantage. Notice that Osama does not dare step in Saudi Arabia, where a death sentence awaits Osama, nor even Syria or Iran. When Osama dies, they will simply move on to the next convenient tool. If he should somehow survive, Osama is of no value to the nations of the Middle East, except that so long as he appears to be popular with many people, those governments will play devotion to please their crowds.

The next lesson is that the Middle East is in transition. Most people do not realize that the nations of the Middle East, for the most part, only came into being as we now know them after the Second World War, and even then they enjoyed little independence or freedom. Only now are many Middle Eastern people discovering they may choose their own way, faithful to The Prophet yet secure in their own worth as individuals. Only now are many Arabs discovering they may, perhaps, choose their own path, perhaps even establishing a future for themselves and their families by their own work and planning.

The third lesson is America. We have hardly been a perfect nation, but as happened after World War 2, the Arab World is now beginning to realize that we are a nation of our word. We not only make bold promises, this time we shall keep those promises, to the benefit of all. A democratic republic in Iraq, coupled with the new government in Afghanistan, can change many things in the region. Some of the groups acting against us, do so out of fear. After all, men who have enjoyed power through sexist, racist, or class suppression have great reason to fear the education, equal opportunity, and civil protection of all people, but in the end, the advancement of these basic rights will be precious to future generations.

Osama hates us, but he also fears us. Because we are his doom and the end of many like him, if we stay the course and do not give up. That is just one more reason, why it is so important that President Bush must be re-elected. We are at a crossroads, and the whole world is bettered or cheated by our choice.