Saturday, June 02, 2007

MLP Round 035

Game Scores:

Monroe at McKinley, 37-31 McKinley
Madison at GW Bush, 36-23 GW Bush
Buchanan at Lincoln, 37-30 Lincoln
Ford at Wilson, 34-25 Ford
Taylor at Washington, 36-27 Washington
Reagan at Coolidge, 37-22 Reagan
T Roosevelt at Clinton, 33-25 TR
Jefferson at Polk, 33-31 Polk
Fillmore at Grant, 31-25 Fillmore
L Johnson at F Roosevelt, 33-26 FDR
Kennedy at Arthur, 32-24 JFK
Truman at Tyler, 32-28 Truman
Taft at Cleveland, 32-31 Cleveland
Nixon at J Adams, 30-28 J Adams
W Harrison at Eisenhower, 30-28 Ike
Harding at Jackson, 28-25 Jackson
Hayes at Garfield, 29-28 Garfield
GH Bush at B Harrison, 26-22 GH Bush
JQ Adams at Van Buren, 32-23 JQA
Carter at Hoover, 23-22 Hoover
A Johnson at Pierce, 21-18 A Johnson

Two Presidents have one loss, another two have 2 losses, another four have 5 wins, and another two each have 2 wins.

Friday, June 01, 2007

Presidential Job Approval

It’s Friday, and that means Fun with Numbers time!

One of the most common political numbers touted by media, is the President’s Job Approval. It’s not well understood, frankly. Generally, the media reports a JA as if it were a referendum on an particular issue or personal scorecard, when in fact it is neither. For example, a composite of most major opinion polls gives President Bush a 32% Job Approval rating. If Bush were running again for President and got 32% of the Popular Vote, that would be a poor performance. However, we would have to consider the situation in better context if we wanted to draw that analogy. Would this hypothetical election be against a field of GOP candidates, like a primary? If so, 32% would be enough to win many such primaries. Would it be a one-on-one match-up in a general election against a Democrat? In such a case, the conditions change radically, as many voters who are not especially thrilled with a President, may choose to support him because the alternative is simply not palatable. The Job Approval numbers cannot, therefore, properly be used to suggest election conditions.

Also, Job Approval numbers are not static. In fact, you need to consider a variety of them to really understand what’s going on. What I mean, can be seen by looking at the term average approval ratings, the term lows, highs, and mean-values. This collection can be quite illuminating. For this article, I am taking data from the FDR through GW Bush Administrations. I used and recommend the Roper Center for accessing the requisite data. For this article I considered only the Gallup polls, for reasons of consistent questioning, historical constancy of results, and for a stable base of comparison.

First, let’s rank the President’s average ratings. From lowest to highest, here’s how they did:

L Johnson.......54.8%
GW Bush.........54.8%
GHW Bush........62.1%
F Roosevelt.....65.2%

Interesting, to note the difference between a President’s average popularity and his effectiveness. Next, let’s consider the Presidents in terms of their lowest Job Approval tracked by Galllup:

GHW Bush........29%
GW Bush.........32%
L Johnson.......35%
F Roosevelt.....48%

That’s intriguing. Don’t forget that JFK and Ford never finished a full term, and Gallup does not have numbers available from before 1938 on Job Approval but it’s interesting that FDR and Eisenhower had a low tide of 48%.

Next, let’s look at the Presidents in terms of their highest Job Approval in Gallup:

L Johnson.......80%
F Roosevelt.....84%
GHW Bush........89%
GW Bush.........90%

Think about that. Reagan, the best President in the bunch, had a high-tide mark of 68% approval, just ahead of Richard Nixon. And looking at the two Bushes and Harry Truman, it’s also obvious that Job Approval can be highly volatile.

If, just for fun, I mix them all up and count the high, low, and average all together and split the result by three, here’s my least-to-most popular results:

GW Bush.........59.45%
GHW Bush........59.78%

Not what you might expect, is it? And more importantly, those who did the best job, may not show it in simple popularity while they were in office. Just something to think about when we choose the next Oval Office jockey.


Hi there. This beautiful animal gracing the header of today's site is Bingo, my daughter's Collie puppy. Bingo has a number of characteristics worth mentioning:

[] She is AKC-registered, which means I paid money to get a piece of paper proving she's really a Collie.

[] Bingo is 15 weeks old, but growing fast. About 3 months from now, she will still be a puppy, but will be almost twice the size she is now, and around 65 pounds in weight.

[] Bingo is what they call a White Sable Rough-Hair Collie. If you look closely, you will notice that her eyes are different colors.

[] Collies are a very smart breed of dog, which means that Bingo is probably smarter than 40% of the voting population, and also smarter than Lindsay Lohan or anyone appearing these days on MTV or "The View".

[] Bingo likes to chase things, and she likes to chew things.

[] And if you are still reading at this point, you probably love dogs in general, and have one yourself.

In other news, I have begun the Summer Semester of my MBA studies. This semester features Strategic Cost Accounting, Management and Organizational Behavior, and Statistics and Research Methods. The decision to pursue an Accounting concentration has added either three or five additional Accounting courses to my degree load, but that is to be expected. The difefrence comes from the fact that I was a moron while an undergraduate, and because my Bachelor's Degree was in Liberal Arts, UHV (being an AACSB-accredited school) demands that I prove I can handle the higher-order Accounting work. Two of the classes may be waived, since I have already passed graduate-level Accounting classes. I need to be careful to consider the overall need, however, since I also plan to sit for the CPA exam after earning my MBA.

In still other news, I will go back to M.D. Anderson for more tests on July 9, basically to make sure the tumors in my abdomen have not been naughty. Hopefully, the present non-surgical regimen will continue to prove effective.

Well, that's all for now.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

MLP Round 034

Game Scores:

McKinley at Jefferson, 35-34 McKinley
GW Bush at Carter, 33-26 GW Bush
Lincoln at Fillmore, 33-31 Lincoln
Coolidge at Ford, 35-28 Ford
Washington at W Harrison, 36-25 Washington
Clinton at Reagan, 31-24 Reagan
Eisenhower at T Roosevelt, 33-30 TR
Polk at L Johnson, 30-21 Polk
F Roosevelt at Nixon, 31-30 Nixon
J Adams at Kennedy, 32-31 JFK
Jackson at Truman, 32-30 Truman
Cleveland at A Johnson, 29-19 Cleveland
Grant at Taylor, 30-25 Taylor
B Harrison at Monroe, 30-23 Monroe
Tyler at Taft, 30-28 Taft
Garfield at Van Buren, 30-23 Garfield
Hoover at GH Bush, 28-23 GH Bush
Pierce at JQ Adams, 27-25 JQA
Hayes at Buchanan, 26-19 Hayes
Arthur at Harding, 29-27 Arthur
Wilson at Madison, 26-25 Wilson

Two Presidents have one loss, another two have 2 losses, another one has 2 wins, and one President has one win.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

MLP Round 033

Game Scores:

L Johnson at McKinley, 37-22 McKinley
GH Bush at GW Bush, 36-30 GW Bush
Taylor at Lincoln, 37-28 Lincoln
Ford at Clinton, 32-25 Ford
T Roosevelt at Washington, 36-32 Washington
Reagan at Eisenhower, 37-30 Reagan
Jefferson at B Harrison, 34-22 Jefferson
Nixon at Polk, 32-30 Polk
Fillmore at Hayes, 31-28 Fillmore
Kennedy at F Roosevelt, 3-31 FDR
Truman at Arthur, 32-24 Truman
JQ Adams at Cleveland, 32-31 Cleveland
Harding at J Adams, 30-26 J Adams
Monroe at Hoover, 27-23 Monroe
Taft at Jackson, 29-28 Taft
A Johnson at Tyler, 28-23 Tyler
Buchanan at Garfield, 29-23 Garfield
W Harrison at Grant, 28-25 W Harrison
Carter at Wilson, 25-18 Wilson
Madison at Coolidge, 22-21 Coolidge
Van Buren at Pierce, 29-18 Van Buren

Two Presidents have one loss, another two have 2 losses, another one has 2 wins, and one President has one win.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Memorial Day

To U.S. veterans everywhere, thanks.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

MLP Round 032

Game Scores:

Washington at Reagan, 36-35 Reagan
Eisenhower at Ford, 35-33 Ford
McKinley at Nixon, 37-30 McKinley
GW Bush at Monroe, 36-30 GW Bush
Lincoln at W Harrison, 31-25 Lincoln
Grant at T Roosevelt, 33-25 TR
Polk at Kennedy, 32-30 JFK
Buchanan at Fillmore, 31-21 Fillmore
Hoover at Jefferson, 34-25 Jefferson
J Adams at Truman, 32-29 Truman
Hayes at Taylor, 30-29 Taylor
F Roosevelt at Harding, 31-27 FDR
Cleveland at Van Buren, 30-23 Cleveland
Arthur at Taft, 30-26 Taft
Tyler at JQ Adams, 29-27 Tyler
Garfield at Pierce, 32-22 Garfield
Jackson at A Johnson, 34-19 Jackson
Wilson at GH Bush, 28-21 GH Bush
Clinton at Madison, 29-25 Clinton
Coolidge at Carter, 28-26 Coolidge
B Harrison at L Johnson, 25-21 B Harrison

Two Presidents have one loss, another two have 2 losses, another one has 2 wins, and one President has one win.

The new Rankings are as follows:

After Thirty-Two Rounds

.1. McKinley (31-1) beats Truman, Harding, JFK, Nixon
.2. GW Bush (31-1) beats Nixon, LBJ, Jefferson, Monroe
.3. Lincoln (30-2) beats Ford, Reagan, TR, W Harrison
.4. Ford (29-3) beats Grant, Ike, loses to Lincoln, Washington
.5. Washington (30-2) beats Carter, Madison, Ford, loses to Reagan
.6. Reagan (28-4) beats Hayes, Grant, Washington, loses to Lincoln
.7. Teddy Roosevelt (28-4) beats Buch, Hayes, Grant, loses to Lincoln
.8. Jefferson (25-7) beats Cool, Wilson, Hoover, loses to GW Bush
.9. Polk (25-7) beats Taft, Truman, Harding, loses to JFK
.10. Fillmore (23-9) beats W Harrison, Taylor, Garfield, Buchanan

.11. FDR (22-10) beats A Johnson, Truman, Harding, loses to Taft
.12. JFK (22-10) beats Hoover, B Harr, Polk, loses to McKinley
.13. Truman (21-11) beats J Adams, loses to McKinley, Polk, FDR
.14. Cleveland (20-12) beats Tyler, Garfield, Pierce, Van Buren
.15. Taylor (20-12) beats Garfield, Buch, Hayes, loses to Fillmore
.16. J Adams (21-11) beats A Johnson, loses to JQA, Taft, Truman
.17. Eisenhower (19-13) beats GH Bush, Carter, Mad, loses to Ford
.18. Monroe (19-13) beats Clinton, Cool, loses to Wilson, GW Bush
.19. Jackson (18-14) beats Pierce, Van Buren, A John, loses to JQA
.20. Taft (17-15) beats FDR, J Adams, Arthur, loses to Polk

.21. Tyler (15-17) beats Pierce, Van Buren, JQA, loses to JFK
.22. Nixon (16-16) beats B Harr, loses to GW Bush, Hoover, McKinley
.23. Garfield (14-18) beats Pierce, loses to Taylor, Cleveland, Fillmore
.24. GH Bush (13-19) beats Clinton, Coolidge, Wilson, loses to Ike
.25. JQ Adams (14-18) beats J Adams, Jackson, loses to Arthur, Tyler
.26. Hayes (14-18) beats W Harr, loses to Reagan, TR, Taylor
.27. Arthur (12-20) beats JQA, A Johnson, loses to Van Buren, Taft
.28. Clinton (9-23) beats Carter, Madison ,loses to Monroe, GH Bush
.29. W Harrison (10-22) beats Buch, loses to Fillmore, Hayes, Lincoln
.30. Wilson (9-23) beats LBJ, Monroe. loses to Jefferson, GH Bush

.31. Grant (9-23) beats Madison, loses to Ford, Reagan, TR
.32. Harding (9-23) beats B Harrison, loses to McKinley, Polk, FDR
.33. Carter (9-23) loses to Washington, Ike, Clinton, Coolidge
.34. Madison (8-24) loses to Grant, Washington, Ike, Clinton
.35. B Harrison (6-26) beats LBJ, loses to Harding, JFK, Nixon
.36. Coolidge (5-27) beats Carter, loses to Jeff. Monroe, GH Bush
.37. LBJ (5-27) beats Hoover, loses to Wilson, GW Bush, B Harr
.38. Buchanan (5-27) loses to TR, W Harr, Taylor, Fillmore
.39. Hoover (4-28) beats Nixon, loses to JFK, LBJ, Jefferson
.40. Van Buren (4-28) beats Arthur, loses to Jackson, Tyler, Cleve
.41. Pierce (2-30) loses to Jackson, Tyler, Cleveland, Garfield
.42. A Johnson (1-31) loses to FDR, J Adams, Arthur, Jackson

For those who have been noting President Carter's rather disapproving verdict of George W. Bush, many have claimed that President Carter is, in fact, the worst of our Presidents. At this time, and with a 146-game season things could change, President Carter has a record of 9 wins and 23 losses, and is ranked 33rd on my list. Not an especially proud accomplishment, but far from the worst. My rankings should be taken with the knowledge that all polls have some degree of bias, but also that I did my level best to quantify abilities and term priorities prior to any potential match-ups.