Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Bizarro Election Update

Hillary Clinton has 232 electoral votes at this time, presuming all of her pledged electors vote for her and none of Trump’s 306 pledged electors defect and vote for her (since the electors are chosen by the party which won the state, this is pretty much assured, although one or two may abstain or vote for a third-party candidate in protest). Ms. Clinton would need an addition thirty-eight electoral votes to become President.

At this time, five states are involved in recounts or have had recounts requested. In order of likelihood of a recount happening, those states are :

Wisconsin: A recount is underway right now. Trump won Wisconsin by a little short of 23 thousand votes, so a recount was never expected to change things much. With 23 out of 72 counties completed, Trump’s margin in Wisconsin has actually increased by 146 votes.

The recount is underway, but all evidence indicates Trump will continue to hold the victory in Wisconsin.

Michigan: A recount has been ordered and is underway, but the Attorney General for Michigan has filed suit to stop it due to taxpayer cost and Stein’s alleged lack of standing. A Michigan Court of Appeals appears to be siding with the Attorney General.

Judge to issue order on requests to end Mich. recount

That could send the case to the Michigan State Supreme Court.

To make things ever stranger, more than half the precincts in Detroit apparently broke their scanners by forcing the machines to accept ballots in a non-approved manner, creating a conflict which - among other things - makes recount impossible because physical ballots in those precincts cannot be matched to computer results.

Half of Detroit votes may be ineligible for recount

The recount may not continue. If it does not continue, Trump will continue to hold the victory in Michigan. If the recount is allowed to continue, the remaining countable ballots are in counties where Trump won convincingly, indicating he would still hold the victory.

Nevada: A very late filing was made by Independent candidate Roque De La Fuente for a recount just two days ago. The recount is ongoing, even though the reason for the recount and the intended objective are both unclear.

Election recount underway in Nevada

The results so far indicate Clinton will continue to hold the victory in Nevada.

Pennsylvania: Jill Stein asked for a recount in Pennsylvania but was denied by the state. She filed in state court to contest the election, then withdrew the suit and instead filed in federal court to contest Pennsylvania on grounds that the election procedures violated the 1st and 14th Constitutional amendments.

Judge schedules hearing for Green Party's Pa. recount push

A federal judge has scheduled a hearing on the suit for Friday.
If the federal court dismisses the suit, Trump will continue to hold the victory in Pennsylvania. In the unlikely event that the judge rules in Stein’s favor, the most likely result would be that Pennsylvania’s electoral votes would be thrown out, and no one could claim them in the electoral count.

Florida: A very late recount suit was filed two days ago in Florida by three plaintiffs. A fatal flaw is that Trump’s lawyers are not required to respond until after the electoral college votes,

Florida voters sue for recount

so that Trump can win the case by simply ignoring it.

There is no evidence that Florida’s results will be changed.

What this means is essentially that there is no real path for Hillary Clinton to become President, short of multiple courts all deciding to award states won by Trump to Clinton, on no evidence Clinton actually had more votes than Trump in any of those states.