.
By now, a lot of people have read Zogby’s latest poll, which purports to support the claim that most servicemen in Iraq want to call it quits and go home. A lot of bloggers have weighed in, on both sides of the aisle, the best in my opinion coming from Bruce Kesler at Democracy Project and Hugh Hewitt. My own opinion on Zogby should already be obvious.
Back in 2004, I caught him cheating on basic methodology and basically excommunicated him from the ranks of serious pollsters. That time, I discovered that Zogby was mixing telephone and online results without announcing the fact, and worse, had apparently been doing this for some time. Zogby also used some of his prior polls to drive demographic weighting for future polls, something frowned upon by the NCPP and the AAPOR.
I have not written on polls very much since the 2004 election, because in my opinion the current polls are not managed at the same level of standards as the election-year polls. This is due to several key factors, not least the fact that a lot more people are interested in opinion polls and the major issues during an election year, which means a 2006 pollster is going to have a much harder time getting a large enough respondent pool using RDD methodology to validate the results. Second, no one seems to be looking for the “likely voter”, on the argument that there is no such thing right now. I would remind people that there is always an election at some level coming up (primaries, anyone?), and pollsters could also ask whether someone voted in the last election. But it appears that another look at polling could be beneficial.
Political opinion polling is a business. A lot of people forget that. And what’s more, Zogby is a kid on the block. A short, arrogant, egotistical kid. Normally, I don’t pick on newcomers, as blogging is a pretty new medium and I am a newcomer amongst the bloggers, but in Zogby’s case, it actually appears that Zogby has something of a psychological problem with his newness, and he is overcompensating in a lot of ill-chosen ways.
I think it all comes back to 1996. Since the Republicans took over Congress in the 1994 elections, which was unexpected by the Dino-media, the conventional wisdom had swung to believe that President Bubba was going to be in trouble getting himself re-elected. As the election drew near, John Zogby’s polls continued to show Clinton leading Dole, which was what all the polls did by late October, but Zogby was the first to put Clinton clearly in front, and his 1996 final poll most closely matched the actual popular vote results. John Zogby was “made” as a professional pollster.
This was a big deal. Polling has been around in the United States for more than a century, with Gallup basically leading the parade since 1936. Interestingly, Gallup got it’s liftoff by predicting what conventional wisdom said would not happen, so there’s that common link, sixty years apart. The difference between the two polls is, of course, also those sixty years of distance, during which time Gallup has worked to review its results and see where they missed a target, in order to improve their process. In recent years, Gallup has not had to change their basic methodology at all to get reasonably good indicators of the public mood. They’re not exactly coasting, but it’s very difficult to see how someone else can pass Gallup as the leading media-quoted opinion poll.
Returning to Zogby then, we see the problem. Zogby had a good year in 1996, and wanted to parley it into a grand slam. But to do that, Zogby had to travel down one of four roads:
1. Be the most accurate poll. In Zogby’s defense, I believe this was his initial goal. None of the polls I see out there can be described as always accurate, much less perfect. So every pollster dreams of finding some missing element which raises the credibility of his poll above the rest, and I really do think that some of Zogby’s ideas, like the interactive online poll, were intended to discover possible resources which tapped the national mood. Zogby is aware, for instance, that the daytime call to a home telephone is not going to produce a representative response of the demographic cross-section, but almost no one wants a cell call from a pollster, and businessmen are unlikely to take a call during working hours anyway. I believe that somewhere after the 2002 Elections, Zogby came to the sad conclusion that he does not possess a means to be substantially more accurate than Gallup,and since Gallup is the #1 poll, they remain in front.
2. Be the strongest private poll. One thing which came out during the 2004 election, was that the Bush and Kerry campaigns did private polling. The fact that political candidates feel the need for private polling has suggested to me that the nominal public opinion polls are not up to the job. Certainly Zogby could make a nice pile of money, and presumably does, on contracted assignments for special clients. In Zogby’s case, however, his habit of using information from one poll as part of a driver of methodology in another poll, suggests to me that John might have poisoned his well of likely clients.
3. Be the first to ask the questions on everyone’s mind. Relevance and timing are critical components to poll success, and a sure road to media attention. The mistake made by Zogby, is that he has let his focus slip, so that he asks the kind of questions and phrases the wording, in the way he personally thinks. This is a critical error. I know from a couple helpful phone calls, that Gallup develops their questions and wording through a conference process, which tries to avoid both the fact and the sense of partisanship. Either Zogby writes the questions himself, or he has a staff which is expected to think as he does. The questions are evidence in themselves that Zogby has abandoned objectivity, and as a consequence, his polls are less and less likely to capture the mind and mood of the public.
4. Be controversial. Jerry Springer knew this; loud noise and conflict attract an audience. Zogby has apparently decided that he cannot be the most credible poll, nor attract the most influential clients, nor can he tap into the national mood at large better than other polls, so he has resorted to scripting his polls to produce a result which will generate headlines and debate. Having the words “Zogby Poll” included in episodes of “Face The Nation” or “Meet The Press”, as well as the nightly MSM newscasts would be good advertising, he seems to believe. This only demonstrates yet another Zogby error; polling is very interesting to bloggers, especially quant wonks who can take a poll apart and see how it was built. Refusing to admit and correct an error which invalidates a poll is bad enough, and of course deliberately rigging a poll to get desired results is very stupid these days, as you will, sooner or later, get caught, but Zogby fails to understand that bloggers will not simply forget his deception in 2004, nor fail to catch him out when he tries to lie through his teeth as he did in the latest ‘army wants to quit’ poll.
John Zogby may have a future in cable television, but not in professional polling. He’s become a media whore, and has crossed the line beyond which I do not believe he can return to credibility.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
REALTIME Review on Monday
[+]
The last week of posts on "Stolen Thunder" must certainly seem strange. In actual fact, they were the produced outcome of a scenario program to examine the possible actions in a nuclear exchange between the United States and Iran, as both nations are presumed to stand today. A series of possibilities and conditions existed for each release, with events defined earlier driving future decisions and actions. The purpose of the scenario was to examine the crisis management aspect of the present leadership in the United States, Iran, Russia, China, Israel, and the Middle East in general.
A more detailed review wil be posted Monday.
The last week of posts on "Stolen Thunder" must certainly seem strange. In actual fact, they were the produced outcome of a scenario program to examine the possible actions in a nuclear exchange between the United States and Iran, as both nations are presumed to stand today. A series of possibilities and conditions existed for each release, with events defined earlier driving future decisions and actions. The purpose of the scenario was to examine the crisis management aspect of the present leadership in the United States, Iran, Russia, China, Israel, and the Middle East in general.
A more detailed review wil be posted Monday.
Friday, March 03, 2006
REALTIME 2312 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 2312 EST UPDATE
ARCHER FURY/NEPTUNE FURY
Additional THIRTY ground and sub-surface targets destroyed IRAN, SYRIA, SUDAN
END SCENARIO ACTIONS NOTE NO RUSSIAN OR CHINESE RESPONSE
ARCHER FURY/NEPTUNE FURY
Additional THIRTY ground and sub-surface targets destroyed IRAN, SYRIA, SUDAN
END SCENARIO ACTIONS NOTE NO RUSSIAN OR CHINESE RESPONSE
REALTIME 2300 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 2300 EST UPDATE
Secondary launches ARCHER FURY
Primary launches NEPTUNE FURY, SIOP IR43Z
Secondary launches ARCHER FURY
Primary launches NEPTUNE FURY, SIOP IR43Z
REALTIME 2224 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2224 EST INTERRUPT
SIXTEEN targets destroyed by SLBM in IRAN
FOUR IRAN SUBMARINES destroyed by action
TWENTY-SIX SURFACE VESSELS destroyed by action
Air and surface actions continuing
SIXTEEN targets destroyed by SLBM in IRAN
FOUR IRAN SUBMARINES destroyed by action
TWENTY-SIX SURFACE VESSELS destroyed by action
Air and surface actions continuing
REALTIME 2212 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2212 EST INTERRUPT
NEST-C (DC) MATERIAL IRAN
HARRIER RECALLS NEPTUNE FURY FROM RUSSIA, NEW TARGETS
HARRIER ORDERS ARCHER FURY OPERATIONS, SIOP IR43
CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
NEST-C (DC) MATERIAL IRAN
HARRIER RECALLS NEPTUNE FURY FROM RUSSIA, NEW TARGETS
HARRIER ORDERS ARCHER FURY OPERATIONS, SIOP IR43
CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
REALTIME 2207 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2207 EST INTERRUPT
NEST-E (HOU) MATERIAL IRAN
DNEA1 (NY) BACKTRACK MATERIAL IRAN, MASKED RUSSIAN WASTE
Confirmations pending
SECURE LINE HARRIER TO GREYWOLF OPENED
NEST-E (HOU) MATERIAL IRAN
DNEA1 (NY) BACKTRACK MATERIAL IRAN, MASKED RUSSIAN WASTE
Confirmations pending
SECURE LINE HARRIER TO GREYWOLF OPENED
REALTIME 2200 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 2200 EST UPDATE
Pending DNEA 1 (NY) confirm
Pending DNEA 2 (LA) data
Pending DNEA 1 (NY) confirm
Pending DNEA 2 (LA) data
REALTIME 2145 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2145 EST INTERRUPT
DNEA 1 (NY) PRELIM DATA RUSSIAN RPT RUSSIAN MATERIAL
CONFIRMATION PENDING
FAILSAFE moved to RED DOOR, GUPPIES activated
HARRIER orders NEPTUNE FURY deployment, CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
DNEA 1 (NY) PRELIM DATA RUSSIAN RPT RUSSIAN MATERIAL
CONFIRMATION PENDING
FAILSAFE moved to RED DOOR, GUPPIES activated
HARRIER orders NEPTUNE FURY deployment, CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
REALTIME 2117 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2117 EST INTERRUPT
NEST-E INTERCEPT DEVICE HOUSTON, details pending
NEST-E INTERCEPT DEVICE HOUSTON, details pending
REALTIME 2055 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2055 EST INTERRUPT
DNEA 1 ONSITE NY
DNEA 2 ER SAN PEDRO
HARRIER speaks on CNN, advises of attacks, POTUS condition, says response will be “measured but devastating”
BEAGLE asks for conference with IRAN, no response from IRAN
DNEA 1 ONSITE NY
DNEA 2 ER SAN PEDRO
HARRIER speaks on CNN, advises of attacks, POTUS condition, says response will be “measured but devastating”
BEAGLE asks for conference with IRAN, no response from IRAN
2030 EST ECNF UPDATE
2030 EST ECNF UPDATE
NATO informed ARTICLE 5 provisions activated
RUSSIA, CHINA, NATO, SEATO informed NUCLEAR RELEASE planned
CNN on air, reporting nuclear blasts in New York and Los Angeles
HARRIER orders FCC to allow broadcast, asks CNN for emergency time
NATO informed ARTICLE 5 provisions activated
RUSSIA, CHINA, NATO, SEATO informed NUCLEAR RELEASE planned
CNN on air, reporting nuclear blasts in New York and Los Angeles
HARRIER orders FCC to allow broadcast, asks CNN for emergency time
REALTIME 2015 INTERRUPT
REALTIME 2015 INTERRUPT
2015 EST ECNF INITIATED
HARRIER orders ARCHER FURY deployment, CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
2015 EST ECNF INITIATED
HARRIER orders ARCHER FURY deployment, CSGN EAGLE, BULLDOG
2009 EST INTERRUPT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT
2009 EST INTERRUPT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT
HIGH ENERGY EVENT DECLARED DSP
EMP LOS ANGELES CA, details pending
CRYSTAL RPTS NO TM TRACK EITHER EVENT
HIGH ENERGY EVENT DECLARED DSP
EMP LOS ANGELES CA, details pending
CRYSTAL RPTS NO TM TRACK EITHER EVENT
2005 EST INTERRUPT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT
2005 EST INTERRUPT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT CRITIC EVENT
HIGH ENERGY EVENT DECLARED DSP, DEFCON 1 NY / US RED RED RED
EMP NEW YORK CITY NY, details pending
CBS/NBC/ABC/FOX Off-Air, no details at this time.
STELLAR PALACE initiating emergency conference, stand by
HIGH ENERGY EVENT DECLARED DSP, DEFCON 1 NY / US RED RED RED
EMP NEW YORK CITY NY, details pending
CBS/NBC/ABC/FOX Off-Air, no details at this time.
STELLAR PALACE initiating emergency conference, stand by
REALTIME 2000 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 2000 EST UPDATE
No new information.
DEFCON 3, DC RED NATION ORANGE
POTUS Serious but stable
VIGILANT ARCHER deployed
No new information.
DEFCON 3, DC RED NATION ORANGE
POTUS Serious but stable
VIGILANT ARCHER deployed
REALTIME 1900 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 1900 EST UPDATE
No new information.
DEFCON 3, DC RED NATION ORANGE
POTUS Serious but stable
VIGILANT ARCHER deployed
No new information.
DEFCON 3, DC RED NATION ORANGE
POTUS Serious but stable
VIGILANT ARCHER deployed
REALTIME 1800 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 1800 EST UPDATE
NSC advises preparation for range of responses, NDI warns additional attacks likely, though type and location unknown.
HARRIER advised VIGILANT ARCHER fully deployed, NATO advised per treaty terms
STELLAR CONFERENCE adjourned for meals and rest, will reconvene at 2200 or when events require
NSC advises preparation for range of responses, NDI warns additional attacks likely, though type and location unknown.
HARRIER advised VIGILANT ARCHER fully deployed, NATO advised per treaty terms
STELLAR CONFERENCE adjourned for meals and rest, will reconvene at 2200 or when events require
REALTIME 1700 EST UPDATE
REALTIME 1700 EST UPDATE
HAIFA PORT SECURE, no detonation
MOSSAD claims NUCLEAR DEVICE seized at HAIFA PORT is Iranian.
POTUS condition upgraded to Serious
HAIFA PORT SECURE, no detonation
MOSSAD claims NUCLEAR DEVICE seized at HAIFA PORT is Iranian.
POTUS condition upgraded to Serious
REALTIME 1632 EST INTERRUPT
REALTIME 1632 EST INTERRUPT
FLASH TRAFFIC NSA/NDI
MOSSAD reports interception HAIFA PORT of suspected WMD, details to follow
DHS Raises Condition at all US seaports to RED
DEFCON remains 3, national at ORANGE, DC remains RED
REALTIME 1647 EST INTERRUPT
FLASH TRAFFIC NSA/NDI
MOSSAD confirms NUCLEAR DEVICE found at HAIFA, security in progress.
FLASH TRAFFIC NSA/NDI
MOSSAD reports interception HAIFA PORT of suspected WMD, details to follow
DHS Raises Condition at all US seaports to RED
DEFCON remains 3, national at ORANGE, DC remains RED
REALTIME 1647 EST INTERRUPT
FLASH TRAFFIC NSA/NDI
MOSSAD confirms NUCLEAR DEVICE found at HAIFA, security in progress.
REALTIME 1600 EST
REALTIME 1600 EST
POTUS condition critical but stable, out of surgery.
All Networks advised Press Conference schedule 2100 EST tonight.
HARRIER now NCA per 25A
BULLDOG confirms FAILSAFE 1
VIGILANT ARCHER continues
Russia, China, NATO informed per OLYMPUS
POTUS condition critical but stable, out of surgery.
All Networks advised Press Conference schedule 2100 EST tonight.
HARRIER now NCA per 25A
BULLDOG confirms FAILSAFE 1
VIGILANT ARCHER continues
Russia, China, NATO informed per OLYMPUS
REALTIME 1500 EST
...
REALTIME 1500 EST
DEFCON lowered to 3, Russia China NATO informed
EMP-PV continues
White House holds press conference to discuss POTUS condition, critical but stable. Details not released to public:
POTUS 2 gunshots thoracic region, multiple rib fractures, 1 gunshot femur fracture, near artery but not severed.
USSS 4 agents gunshot various, 2 dead 2 critical
THREE SHOOTERS, all dead by return fire:
Shooter 1, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, late 20s, athletic, 210 lb 70 in blk/blk, various scars, no tattoos
Shooter 2, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, late 20s, slender, 140 lb 65 in blk/blk, no scars, no tattoos
Shooter 3, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, early 30s, slender, 160 lb 68 in blk/blk, no scars, no tattoos
Condition and appearance of bodies, including dental work, consistent with Iranian but cannot yet confirm. DOJ/CIA work to ID underway.
MOSSAD says will comply with request, prayers for POTUS
Russia offers assistance, details pending
UK offers “anything we need”
Iraq/Jordan/Egypt/UAE/Lebanon/Saudi/Djibouti/Oman/Bahrain/
Kuwait/Morocco/Tunisia/Portugal/Italy/Poland/Vatican/
Belgium/Spain/Canada offer prayers and support
No response China, France, Germany, Syria, Libya, Iran, Yemen, Qatar, Mexico
USN reports battle ready, USAF reports in-position “both roads”.
Iraq reports no unusual activity on border.
REALTIME 1500 EST
DEFCON lowered to 3, Russia China NATO informed
EMP-PV continues
White House holds press conference to discuss POTUS condition, critical but stable. Details not released to public:
POTUS 2 gunshots thoracic region, multiple rib fractures, 1 gunshot femur fracture, near artery but not severed.
USSS 4 agents gunshot various, 2 dead 2 critical
THREE SHOOTERS, all dead by return fire:
Shooter 1, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, late 20s, athletic, 210 lb 70 in blk/blk, various scars, no tattoos
Shooter 2, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, late 20s, slender, 140 lb 65 in blk/blk, no scars, no tattoos
Shooter 3, Middle Eastern male, uncircumcised, early 30s, slender, 160 lb 68 in blk/blk, no scars, no tattoos
Condition and appearance of bodies, including dental work, consistent with Iranian but cannot yet confirm. DOJ/CIA work to ID underway.
MOSSAD says will comply with request, prayers for POTUS
Russia offers assistance, details pending
UK offers “anything we need”
Iraq/Jordan/Egypt/UAE/Lebanon/Saudi/Djibouti/Oman/Bahrain/
Kuwait/Morocco/Tunisia/Portugal/Italy/Poland/Vatican/
Belgium/Spain/Canada offer prayers and support
No response China, France, Germany, Syria, Libya, Iran, Yemen, Qatar, Mexico
USN reports battle ready, USAF reports in-position “both roads”.
Iraq reports no unusual activity on border.
REALTIME 1402 FLASH TRAFFIC
...
REALTIME 1402 FLASH TRAFFIC
SP-Emcon in progress, DEFCON now 2, Russia China NATO informed
EMP-PV activated at this time
CNN contacted, asked not to broadcast further footage of the shooting until condition POTUS known.
POTUS in EmSrg
NSC in conference actual as members arrive NMCC
NSA warns IC traffic not following projected flows, indicates Iran under RS and DS, Israel asked for assistance HUMINT
Jordan volunteers HUMINT review for Iranian involvement.
UN requests conference, decision postponed for HARRIER review.
BULLDOG alerts Birdboats, position Iowa Mike Lima 4, SB
DC red US orange DC2 NC VIGILANT ARCHER
REALTIME 1402 FLASH TRAFFIC
SP-Emcon in progress, DEFCON now 2, Russia China NATO informed
EMP-PV activated at this time
CNN contacted, asked not to broadcast further footage of the shooting until condition POTUS known.
POTUS in EmSrg
NSC in conference actual as members arrive NMCC
NSA warns IC traffic not following projected flows, indicates Iran under RS and DS, Israel asked for assistance HUMINT
Jordan volunteers HUMINT review for Iranian involvement.
UN requests conference, decision postponed for HARRIER review.
BULLDOG alerts Birdboats, position Iowa Mike Lima 4, SB
DC red US orange DC2 NC VIGILANT ARCHER
REALTIME 1358 FLASH TRAFFIC
1358 FLASH -TSCI-
POTUS alive critical
HARRIER airborne, NEACP
STELLAR PALACE initiating emergency conference, stand by…
POTUS alive critical
HARRIER airborne, NEACP
STELLAR PALACE initiating emergency conference, stand by…
REALTIME 1346 INTERRUPT
…
CRITIC-CRITIC-CRITIC
1346 EST POTUS shot, no further information condition at this time
DC RED-RED-RED
US ORANGE
CAP DC at this time.
DEFCON 3, SIOP 2-Phi
ALL SHIPS CLEAR PORT NOW
HARRIER to NEACP, (ERATT) (FB at 2-1)
BEAGLE to BKR4
EAGLE to NMCC
BULLDOG to NMCC
NSA reports CNN has live coverage of shooting, casualty, reporters in custody plus tape, but feed was live.
CRITIC-CRITIC-CRITIC
1346 EST POTUS shot, no further information condition at this time
DC RED-RED-RED
US ORANGE
CAP DC at this time.
DEFCON 3, SIOP 2-Phi
ALL SHIPS CLEAR PORT NOW
HARRIER to NEACP, (ERATT) (FB at 2-1)
BEAGLE to BKR4
EAGLE to NMCC
BULLDOG to NMCC
NSA reports CNN has live coverage of shooting, casualty, reporters in custody plus tape, but feed was live.
REALTIME 1300 EST
…
REALTIME 1300 EST
CNN asks if there is a “blackout”, and demands a conference. POTUS scheduled to speak at 1345 EST at Lincoln Memorial.
MOSSAD reports unusual radio activity near border. NSA confirms, suspects Haifa involved.
Additional NDI update for POTUS scheduled 1600 EST.
JCS reports gaming “SUITCASE GAMMA” scenario, will report findings when known.
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH CONTINUES
REALTIME 1300 EST
CNN asks if there is a “blackout”, and demands a conference. POTUS scheduled to speak at 1345 EST at Lincoln Memorial.
MOSSAD reports unusual radio activity near border. NSA confirms, suspects Haifa involved.
Additional NDI update for POTUS scheduled 1600 EST.
JCS reports gaming “SUITCASE GAMMA” scenario, will report findings when known.
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH CONTINUES
REALTIME 1200 EST
...
REALTIME 1200 EST
NEST in 5 cities activated, also Nevada control as of 1200 EST:
NEW YORK
SEATTLE
WASHINGTON D.C.
MIAMI
HOUSTON
NSC considers truck delivery most likely, warns Russia, China, Israel
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH CONTINUES
REALTIME 1200 EST
NEST in 5 cities activated, also Nevada control as of 1200 EST:
NEW YORK
SEATTLE
WASHINGTON D.C.
MIAMI
HOUSTON
NSC considers truck delivery most likely, warns Russia, China, Israel
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH CONTINUES
REALTIME 1100 EST
...
REALTIME 1100 EST
NEST in 5 cities to be placed on standby as of 1200 EST:
NEW YORK
SEATTLE
WASHINGTON D.C.
MIAMI
HOUSTON
SatCon with Russia and China to discuss possible UN response at State Department, scheduled for 1400 EST
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH PENDING CONFIRMATION
REALTIME 1100 EST
NEST in 5 cities to be placed on standby as of 1200 EST:
NEW YORK
SEATTLE
WASHINGTON D.C.
MIAMI
HOUSTON
SatCon with Russia and China to discuss possible UN response at State Department, scheduled for 1400 EST
PRESS BLACKOUT ORDERED BY WH PENDING CONFIRMATION
REALTIME 1000 EST
...
REALTIME 1000 EST
DNI reports unconfirmed reports Iran seeking information on ports in Israel, both East and West coasts US.
NSC scheduled meeting 1030 EST to discuss security regarding Iran plutonium status and DNEA team activation.
REALTIME 1000 EST
DNI reports unconfirmed reports Iran seeking information on ports in Israel, both East and West coasts US.
NSC scheduled meeting 1030 EST to discuss security regarding Iran plutonium status and DNEA team activation.
REALTIME Orientation
[rt[]
REALTIME will create informational updates tagged to the top of the hour, but will interrupt with significant information or substantive changes to previous information. Information will be reported as ELEMENTS, EPISODES, or EVENTS, in rising levels of importance. Information will be relayed according to Significance, Confidence, and Urgency on a 5-point scale, 5 being the highest. Information will not be scored if any of the three qualities is deemed “1” or “2”, but will be passed along if any of the values is “3” or higher. So, you may see information with a value like -343- meaning the significance is medium, the confidence above average, and the urgency medium. Or you may see information with no score, meaning that at least one quality is too low for rating, but the information is passed along in case it can be verified through combined analysis with other data. REALTIME simulates information collected from various sources, which may not be aware of other information or sources.
Initial conditions:
930 AM Friday morning, location Washington DC White House West Wing. You are a member of the President’s Staff, with access to the President but at a level below Cabinet or Chief of Staff. You hold TS-CI clearance, and will occasionally be present for direct Presidential communications, though not always.
You are aware from a PDB that Iran not only has the capability for fissile material enrichment, but CIA claims Iran has created stockpile of Plutonium (-443-). NSA and NRO claim SIXTY POUNDS (approx) of plutonium has been removed from reactors, purposes unknown, location unknown. This information has been shared with NATO, DHS, SEATO, request for HUMINT if possible.
NSA reports increase in chatter Tuesday and Wednesday in number of Iran SOG locations, but dropped back to normal Thursday. President Ahmadinejad location unknown at this time.
POTUS - Washington DC
VP - Cheyenne, Wyoming
Speaker - Office, Capitol Hill
SecState - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
NSA - White House West Wing
JCS - NMCC alternating, Pentagon
REALTIME will create informational updates tagged to the top of the hour, but will interrupt with significant information or substantive changes to previous information. Information will be reported as ELEMENTS, EPISODES, or EVENTS, in rising levels of importance. Information will be relayed according to Significance, Confidence, and Urgency on a 5-point scale, 5 being the highest. Information will not be scored if any of the three qualities is deemed “1” or “2”, but will be passed along if any of the values is “3” or higher. So, you may see information with a value like -343- meaning the significance is medium, the confidence above average, and the urgency medium. Or you may see information with no score, meaning that at least one quality is too low for rating, but the information is passed along in case it can be verified through combined analysis with other data. REALTIME simulates information collected from various sources, which may not be aware of other information or sources.
Initial conditions:
930 AM Friday morning, location Washington DC White House West Wing. You are a member of the President’s Staff, with access to the President but at a level below Cabinet or Chief of Staff. You hold TS-CI clearance, and will occasionally be present for direct Presidential communications, though not always.
You are aware from a PDB that Iran not only has the capability for fissile material enrichment, but CIA claims Iran has created stockpile of Plutonium (-443-). NSA and NRO claim SIXTY POUNDS (approx) of plutonium has been removed from reactors, purposes unknown, location unknown. This information has been shared with NATO, DHS, SEATO, request for HUMINT if possible.
NSA reports increase in chatter Tuesday and Wednesday in number of Iran SOG locations, but dropped back to normal Thursday. President Ahmadinejad location unknown at this time.
POTUS - Washington DC
VP - Cheyenne, Wyoming
Speaker - Office, Capitol Hill
SecState - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
NSA - White House West Wing
JCS - NMCC alternating, Pentagon
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