Thoughts on Christmas in the Corporate Age

I was driving my daughter to the dentist today, and noticed how many businesses are open. Now, it's true that tomorrow is Christmas Eve, so that today is just "Friday" for a lot of people, and if you don't happen to be Christian there's nothing really special about this holiday anyway. Then again, there was a time when everyone in the United States understood that the Christmas season was a time of celebration, so that if you were not Christian or even particularly religious, you could still celebrate a time to enjoy family and share goodwill. After all, the early Christians celebrated Christmas at a time when the guys in power were celebrating the Winter Solstice, to avoid notice of their own faith, so the holiday has always been more about the spirit than the specific faith. Some Christians will not like that, I expect, since the modern spirit seems to demand an Imperial Christ who commands us all to surrender to the True Faith. For me, though, I recall a Christ who was remarkably subtle and gentle about other beliefs. Not that Christ did not believe in His own Gospel, but that Jesus understood from the start that faith must be born of love and charity, not demands and threats. Anyway, my point is that I am old enough to remember when everyone could enjoy the season and get a sense of God's love for all people.

I don't think I have to go into detail to observe that things have changed a lot over the years. The mercenary aspect has been around for a very long time, even the original version of "Miracle on 34th Street" and "It's A Wonderful Life" understood how people obsess over money and possessions, and many judge a holiday by the profit in their bank accounts. And I notice that there are a lot of good people going around spreading the true spirit by helping others, like the layaway Good Sams paying off balances at stores, or the Salvation Army's tireless work to help those who need it year-round, but especially at Christmas. But I have also noticed how many people are stressed out. My family went to Costco and we saw a lot of angry drivers and rude shoppers, cutting off other cars and shoving in front of other shoppers, and store employees who looked harried and worn out. I remember back when I ran movie theaters, and how tough it could be to get through the holidays with rude and selfish customers who showed no courtesy to my staff or other patrons. OK, so that's been around for a long time, I get it. And I have to mention, there seem to be an awful lot of people with Christian symbols and stickers on their cars who show no sign f Christ in how they actually behave and speak. Just saying, folks.

But there's the corporate aspect as well. My company's GM sent out a pretty standard Christmas wish email yesterday, but it was in sharp contrast to his behavior during the weeks before then. I get it, end of year coming up and he's under a lot of pressure to make his projected numbers. But he was a bit rude in how he addressed his people, especially in his demands from managers. No sense getting too worked up in that, but I did notice that we had expectations told to us that had no input from us, and therefore were not only unreasonable but impossible to attain. Since I try very hard to always deliver everything I promise, I don't much like being issued a standard which could not possibly be accomplished, nor to be issued expectations that show no attention to my own estimates and reports throughout the year. Again, I understand the pressure people can get under, but it's just plain unprofessional to ignore your own people's reports on what is in range and why.

I bring that up, because in talking to folks that seems to be happening a lot in companies, expectations issued that are unrealistic and create stress for no good purpose and, long-term, damage working relationships between executives and managers. To put it another way, the first fifty weeks of the year give you a good idea about what can be done during the last two, and unrealistic demands are bad on every level. Also, the stress of trying to find a way to meet these year-end expectations spills into family and the community. One reason for the holiday season, I think, is that just as we need a weekend after working all week, at the end of the year we need to decompress a bit, not ratchet up the pressure for the sake of an artificial financial target. And we see that in ways we something might originally see as good; stores that are open longer hours instead of giving their employees more time off, and fewer businesses that close for holidays. I'd rather have the inconvenience of having to get my shopping done by December 23rd and risk not having the pumpkin pie on Christmas, than to see stores demand their employees ignore their families and the holiday in the chase to get more money.

You shouldn't have to be Christian to put away greed for just a few days.

Christmas and the AR Manager

For most folks, Christmas is a happy time. Kids getting out of school, family coming in from all around, and the workplace is lighthearted and in a party mood. Unless, of course, you are finishing up the fiscal year and getting heat from above to accelerate your efforts to bring in revenue and reduce debt. In my case, that means collecting before the end of the year on your hardest cases, and to reduce our bad debt. This month I have been challenged to reduce Bad Debt by 80 percent in a single month and to reduce DSO to a full 12 days lower than it was at the end of October.

Went again to the dentist this week, part three of four in my Why It’s Bad to Break a Tooth adventure, complete with root canal and costs for a crown. I got my ‘temporary crown’ today, which is a white plastic thing which looks like a mini tooth tarp. At least it’s better than what I had before. But any day which includes getting your teeth drilled is one I’d like to get past.

But back to the job. In any company, some of your customers won’t pay all they owe, and some won’t pay at all. Obviously, if you knew they would do this you would not sell to them, or at least you would try very hard to address in advance whatever caused them to refuse payment. But all sorts of problems come up, ranging from errors by your company to out-and-out thieving by a customer. So the first problem is sorting out what happened, which is where all good collections work starts.

It should be obvious, of course, that by the time a balance becomes Bad Debt, you have something that cannot easily be sorted out. Looking at my own Bad Debt Leaderboard, I see late delivery, contract terms disputes, repair complaints and customers trying to hide from their debts as the top reasons why an account gets into Bad Debt.

The fun thing about these issues, is that most of them are simple enough to work out. If we have made a mistake, we make things right, by either repairing the product, replacing it, or refunding the money after it’s returned. Now I will admit that sometimes some of our people would promise a credit then forget about it, but I have also found customers who claimed to have returned product, then when asked for proof of delivery, it finally comes out that they never returned it and it’s been sitting on their warehouse floor for months. What both sides have in common on these things is a real strong reluctance on some folks’ part to admit when they made a mistake.

So my partner and I have lowered DSO from about 72 earlier this year all the way down to 54 right now, and we’ve cut about a hundred thousand out of bad debt, not including adjustments made for credit memos owed by Sales. Trouble is, we’re expected to cut DSO down to 50 by end of year, and cut another hundred thousand of Bad Debt in the next eight business days. Considering our Best Possible DSO (DSO based on just invoices not yet due, assuming every single customer pays on time and all issues and disputes are resolved with payment) looks to be around 52 at year-end, we’ll need to do the impossible to meet the standard. As for Bad Debt, considering most of the remaining debt comes from product that was delivered late and the rest is for customers who don’t answer calls, we’d need a sequel to Mission:Impossible to get that done by December 30.

Ho ho ho becomes ow ow ow.

Anyway, that's sort of why I have not posted anything. The rest of my life has been even more boring, although I may have some comments regarding Age Discrimination in talking about my wife's job, depending on how things work out.

Best wishes to all, and to all a Merry Christmas.

Catching Up A Little

It's been a busy year!

Sorry for the long delay, I got really busy with work and while I knew it was a while since my last post, well missing a whole month is not a good thing.

Of course, better to miss a month of blogging than miss work or family. I also admit I have been paying a lot of attention to Baylor Football, especially the fantastic run by RG3, Robert Griffin III, as he won the Heisman Trophy and the Bear's first 9-win season in decades.

So, a bit of catching up. After a long hot, dry summer, we finally got a bit of cold and rain - and the battery died on the truck. I also broke a molar back around Thanksgiving, which means I have been to the dentist twice for what is going to be a 3-part root canal. Here's a thought - if waterboarding is out for interrogating terrorists, let's give 'em root canals. Just a thought.

But back to The Job. Those who have read my work, or more precisely put up with me, know I am a Credit Manager. The last month of the year is always a bit stressful, with trying to accomplish all the things your boss promised the board you'd do this year. DSO was 72 earlier this year, got it all the way down to 56, but of course I have been told I am expected to get it all the way down to 50 by end of year, something which won't even be mathematically possible if we ship the product amount we are projected to do, but there you are. The big challenge, though, is to address Bad Debt. Put simply, Bad Debt is the money owed which gets really old and usually has big problems associated with it. In my case, the biggest chunk-o-bucks in Bad Debt right now is stuck in a few accounts we have in a branch in the Pacific (can't toss out details here, for what should be obvious reasons). We've been negotiating with the customers to try to address some of this, and in one case the customer is just not speaking with us in an effective way.

Should never have loaned my magic wand to that Potter kid. Looks like I will need it to meet the expectation.

Occupied Wall Street, Unoccupied Brain

Pretty much everyone has seen or heard about the mob of malcontents camping out near Wall Street. Well, attention was their goal, so far as I can tell. The mob was not very strong in working for any specific change, and their communication skills were and are execrable. The people saying these ‘occupy’ stunts are puerile attempts to distract the public from the current Administration’s blunders and failures rings true, but even so, the complete inability to convey an effective message or mission by these jokers makes their whole effort a waste of time by any reasonable standard.

But speaking of the election, when everything is said and done, the most important factor, as in most elections, is the economy. A great many pundits and self-proclaimed ‘experts’ have addressed the economy in great detail, but in the political sense the economy can be understood as the national condition on three points of concern:

1. Unemployment
2. Inflation
3. Debt

The biggest stage, as should be obvious, is Unemployment. Inflation can be serious, as can debt, but it all starts with jobs. Economics, at its core, is all about money in motion. Someone has to spend money for anyone to make money, and it has to make sense for the participants. This is, coming back to the protesters, one of the reasons why their hatred of the American system is misplaced and wrong – envy of an efficient system and those who succeed in work, attacks the people who can best help the unemployed find work, and destabilizes the economy instead of finding answers. The OWS protesters, including those who have copied their tactics in other cities and countries, at best are ignorant and selfish, and at worse know they are liars and parasites. Harsh words for someone who claims to just want to work, granted, but the protesters do not want work, at least they don’t want work in the classic sense of wanting a chance to earn money and prove they can add value to their nation and community. Instead, careful attention to what the protesters actually do and say shows that they what good things handed to them, or at the least they expect people who have succeeded in business to be punished for hard work and initiative. They rail against ‘Corporate Greed’, but when pressed for specifics they resort to broad stereotyped attacks against the largest employers and best-established firms, with absolutely nothing for evidence. They claim that they represent “99 percent” of the nation/world, but again provide no evidence to support the claim, and their demographics suggest they are so far from the truth as to make the claim laughable. If all the protesters were tallied in the U.S., for example, they come up to only a few thousand members, well short of one-hundredth of one percent of the population, let alone ninety-nine. This does not touch the rather obvious observation that the protesters are the same in demographic – they are urban, young and unemployed with little (if any) experience or significant job skills, they are liberal in political orientation, they demand punishment of the wealthy on no basis other than the assumption that wealth is wrong, while simultaneously demanding jobs and money for themselves.

The OWS crowd could be dismissed for the nauseous parasites they are, except for two things. One is the fact that the media has tried to play the OWS stunt into a legitimate grassroots movement; particularly noticeable is how the MSM sells OWS as similar to the TEA Party, which is nothing short of a bald-faced lie. Where the TEA Party is a true populist movement, and wholly American in its spirit and creation, OWS was designed and initially driven by the Canadian firm Adbusters, which as a by-the-way has come under fire in the past for promoting anti-Jewish bigotry. Gives one a sense of their true values, perhaps.

The TEA Party operates in a spirit of increasing citizen participation in election, and demanding that Congress adhere to constitutional limits and principles, while OWS demands punitive action against selected targets, and seems to have no concern whether the government has authority for such action, or whether due process is followed. Whether the groups’ demographics, mission, or tactics are considered, it is clear that the TEA party is American, responsible, and accountable, while the OWS is none of these things.

Supporters of the OWS protests may reasonably claim that the protesters simply want jobs. While I do believe the OWS participants, the ones on the street, do in fact want jobs, they’re going about it the wrong way. The tactic of demanding something you want, without first showing how you will earn it, is always foolish, but to do so as a mob appeals to precisely zero potential employers, excepting criminals and political thuggery movements. What’s worse, in this age of instant information, people who participate in the OWS have damaged their profile for any potential employer. To be blunt, I can scarcely imagine any potential hiring manager considering OWS participation to be anything but a red flag which would cause the application to be rejected out of hand. It’s not that the hiring manager would have to agree with my politics, or even find the OWS position unreasonable; it’s just that when so many people apply for any available position, any potential liability could be disastrous, and so the job-seeker who engages in such behavior damages his personal credibility.

This comes back, as well, to the question of corporate integrity. I will readily admit that there are a large number of companies which I consider to be void of ethics, but even so the corporate identity in general protects employees better than do most private businesses. To see what I mean, consider harassment. A private business is not well-equipped to address harassment, because if it happens the perpetrator is likely to be the owner, and even when a private company chooses to investigate allegations of harassment, they seldom have professional HR tools to do so properly. In a corporation, however, not only are there enough safeguards built in to create a culture of compliance, the potential cost of litigation and range of management between floor and C-suite insure that as a practice, harassment will be strongly discouraged and punished where found.

The same effect exists in compensation. Although corporations are commonly vilified in the media for executive pay and bonuses, most observers fail to note that standardized pay scales also protect raises and bonuses for most other levels of position. In short, while private firms may fluctuate greatly in how much they pay their employees, corporations generally pay for what the work is worth to the company. At low pay, this means the employee must demonstrate superior skills or work to move into the desired pay range, but for proven performers and star employees, corporations generally make sure the employee is paid well enough to make competing firms less attractive. The problem for the OWS mob, is that unskilled labor and lack of a work ethic do not produce attractive opportunities, and these undisciplined people are not yet willing to improve their skill set or work hard enough to stand out and show excellence in their profile. The sum effect of their protest is to damage their own employment prospects. This demonstrates that while they may “occupy” parks or landmarks, the brains of these miscreants are quite empty.

A Virtual Walk Through My Office

I get comfortable writing about things, and sometimes forget that the reader may not know me as well as I think. I've been writing from time to time about business and economics, but have not explored the ways different people in the same company might see the situation. Also, some folks have written me (thank you) about their MBA search, and it might be useful to consider the ways that degree can be used. Rather than try to cover a comprehensive spectrum, I'd like to walk you through my company's corporate office and 'visit' the different officers who make our business run.

We are a mid-sized multinational corporation, and a joint venture partner with a very large multinational. That means we operate autonomously, but with boundaries and of course we operate by our own written policies and procedures. Without considering everyone - we have about 60 people working at our corporate headquarters, which is also a warehouse from which we can ship product - the main roles at the top functional level are the General Manager, Operations Manager, various regional Sales Managers, our Warehouse Manager, our Defects Manager, Purchasing Manager, our Controller, Accounting Manager, Accounts Payable Manager, Remittance Manager, our HR Manager, and me, the Global Credit Manager. I'm going to cover these in a series of posts, but let's start with the General Manager.

Before our Joint Venture was finalized, we had a CEO, but when the JV went into effect the role changed gradually, and now we have a General Manager, roughly equivalent to a Division Vice President in authority at the parent corporation. The GM is responsible for everything our comnpany does, and signs off on everything from budgets and projections to the actual results. He gets instructions and approvals in general from the corporate headquarters, then uses the authority of his position as he sees fit. On the rough side, he is personally responsible for everything we do, but he also has broad authority within his boundaries to get the job done. He can, for example, go over budget to a degree, but he'd better not surprise the parent company. He has to get AFE's prepared and approved for capital expenses ahead of time, which is something I work on, but budgeted expenses are generally in his control. Our GM has an MBA from Harvard and a Bachelor's from Texas, and had about 15 years management experience in project sales and operations before taking on his current role. His normal hours are around 8 AM to 7 PM, except when a project is in the works, when he may work later. The hours are misleading, though, since he has to be available by email/phone pretty much 24/7. The GM role is high-level, which means he has to be aware of performance vs projections, understand deadlines and assign/delegate tasks as needed to meet them. He has to be VERY tactful and able to work with sometimes conflicting requirements, and to meet with major customers whenever appropriate.

(to be continued)

9/11: Unfinished

I’ve never been a big fan of anniversaries for bad days. Mostly because there is so much insincerity; dozens of media people trot out false sorrow and sympathy on camera, then return to a life filled with self-indulgence and narcissism. The same, unfortunately, can also be said for most of our elected officials. What makes today worse is that so many of these people miss at least part of the message. Some will miss it completely, as we hear from apologists and America-haters, who are best ignored for this article. But what I mean for here, is that we will hear about the victims (as we should), the heroism of Flight 93’s passengers and the first responders (again, quite right), tinged with the sub-rosa hints that no one should be blamed for what so many call “tragedy”, rather than face the truth.

The truth is, ten years ago today the United States was suddenly and viciously attacked by members of an evil cult, which continues to exist and which enjoys support, but overt and tacit, for its mission against America, her citizens and values. While many of this cult have been hunted down and killed, there remains a vital mission to exterminate not only Al Qaeda, but every similar group and their supporters. This imperative is apolitical, permanent, and indisputable, although we can assume safely that there are plenty of Nimrods who will play politics with the issue, try to pretend this is history rather than a present danger, and play the denial card past its limit.

We were and are right to hunt down the terrorists in their homes. While it may not be necessary to invade and occupy foreign lands, it is and will be for the foreseeable future necessary, for the security of all Americans, to find terrorist groups and exterminate them. Al Qaeda deliberately targeted thousands of innocent men, women, and children (there were two daycares in the World Trade Center, for example). That crosses a line which cannot be ignored, and the message must be loud, clear, and unified:

When you target innocent Americans on U.S. soil, you forfeit everything you have and are.

We will find you, we will kill you, and this will not end as long as your group exists.

Remember. Remember who did this, and what needs to be done. There is no moral equivalency, no need to ‘try to understand’ terrorists, no reason to forgive.

The Top 25 Online MBA Programs 2011

Every year since 2008 I have posted my opinion of the Top 25 Online MBA programs. I determine these rankings by a weighted system which uses information from the schools’ websites and the AACBS (Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business), which is the premiere accreditation agency for business schools, both in the United States and the world. With no disrespect intended for schools which are not members of the AACSB, in my opinion that designation sets apart the serious programs from the run-of-the-mill schools. At this time there are one hundred schools which have AACSB accreditation and offer an MBA degree with all or nearly all classes online; some of the schools require an on-campus orientation, a foreign trip to a profiled nation, or a very few selected courses to be taken on campus, such as case competitions. My ranking uses a weighted evaluation of fifteen categories of information, with weighting based on criteria which will be of value to students in the quality of education and resources available to them, as well as cost and convenience. Last year I put too much detail into explaining the categories, so this year I am trying to keep it simple. In this post I will simply announce the top 25, and in subsequent posts I will comment on important changes since last year in the online MBA paradigm, offer thoughts on why a person should or should not pursue an MBA and why they should or should not consider an online MBA, and discuss some of the top programs for earning your MBA online.

2011 Top Online MBA Schools

1. University of Florida

2. Georgia Southern University (15th in 2010)

3. Southeast Missouri State University

4. University of Nebraska at Lincoln (5th in 2010)

5. Valdosta State University

6. University of Massachusetts at Amherst (17th in 2010)

7. Oklahoma State University (25th in 2010)

8. University of Mississippi

9. Concordia University (Canada)

10. University of Wyoming

11. Mississippi State University

12. Fayetteville State University (13th in 2010)

13. Indiana University at Bloomington

14. University of Alabama (8th in 2010)

15. University of Texas at San Antonio (23rd in 2010)

16. Arizona State University (22nd in 2010)

17. Western Kentucky University

18. East Carolina University

19. University of Louisiana at Monroe

20. Tennessee Technological University

21. New Mexico State University

22. Florida State University (9th in 2010)

23. Jacksonville State University

24. University of Texas – Pan American

25. University of Wisconsin at La Crosse


Weighting Categories

1. Average GMAT score (14.00%)
2. MBA in-state tuition (13.00%)
3. Minimum GMAT score (12.00%)
4. MBA out-of-state tuition (11.00%)
5. Number of available concentrations (9.50%)
6. Minimum Duration (8.50%)
7. Operating Budget (7.50%)
8. # Faculty FTE (6.50%)
9. Student/Faculty Ratio (6.00%)
10. AACSB Accreditations (3.50%)
11. Budget/Student (3.00%)
12. Student Body Size (2.50%)
13. Undergraduate in-state Tuition (1.50%)
14. Undergraduate out-of-state Tuition (1.00%)
15. Degree levels offered

Debt and Reality

A big part of the problem in reaching a realistic solution in the federal debt crisis is the emotional drama. While there are legitimate reasons for concern about the problem and frustration at the refusal of some to seriously address the situation, many if not most of the voices being raised in media and in political blogs have brought gasoline to the fire and are doing no one any service. Reading through the mess, I have noticed that the extremes on each side fall into certain common assumptions which are inflammatory and work against solution rather than finding one. They include:

* The other side completely caused the crisis
* The only solution, long-term, is complete adoption of our philosophy and doctrine
* The other side wants a default, for political gain
* The other side does not care about Americans, but only itself

and of course, the requisite denial of personal responsibility:

* Anything negative said about us is completely false and meant to avoid finding a solution

The behavior, in essence, is that of adult intellects possessed by juvenile maturities.

Now to be sure, as a conservative I start with my own bias and assumptions, although they seem reasonable to me. I think it's reasonable to say that too much spending and an ever-growing government caused the basic problem, and so we must cut spending to really address the problem. But I also understand that at this point in time, regardless of how we got here, we are going to blow past the existing debt ceiling before anything we do can really reduce it. Also, I understand that what democrats are willing to cut is radically different from what republicans are willing to cut from spending, and since democrats control the Senate and the White House, while the republicans control the House, a measure of negotiation, of give-and-take, is absolutely necessary to reach any deal. To recall an appropriate phrase, the perfect is the enemy of the good in this situation, because the perfect solution cannot come to pass.

This crisis also illustrates the answer to an odd paradox; many more Americans are conservative rather than liberal, yet democrats enjoy either parity or a slight plurality over republicans, as is shown by the election results over many cycles. One might wonder how that is possible, especially since democrats, less and less, reflect the presence or participation of conservatives within their ranks. The answer, sadly for conservatives, is that liberals tend to support democrats, even when they disagree to some extent, while conservatives fragment and go after each other on annoying trite differences. A sad example of this can be seen in Tea Party rhetoric, threatening any republican who deviates at all from a rigid ideology. What's strange about this point, is that the Tea Party came into existence as a genuine grassroots movement, eschewing the framework of any extant political party and as such, lacking clear leadership to dictate an official platform, yet certain individuals have taken it upon themselves to speak for the group to advance their personal agenda. In the present issue especially, the Tea Party is hurting its own cause by threatening existing and potential allies, and in ignoring the credentials of genuine conservatives like Allen West and Paul Ryan, the Tea Party's self-appointed aristocracy have allowed the Left to claim legitimacy for its own positions.

Look, I'm on the far side of a half-century of life and I have seen a lot of politicians and policies. Generally, conservatives are morally and realistically right a lot more often than liberals, but no conservative in my lifetime was perfect. Goldwater failed because while his arguments were sound, they were not persuasive to most voters. Reagan succeeded, but he accomplished most of his success through negotiation and horse trading with a democrat-controlled Congress, and even Reagan made mistakes. George H.W. Bush made the mistake of thinking the democrats who controlled Congress could be trusted, while his son made the mistake of thinking the republicans who controlled Congress could be trusted. I understand that neither Bush has, in the current vogue, been pronounced a 'true conservative', but both were far better choices than the democrats' nominees in 1988 or 1992, and again in 2000 or 2004. The decision by some to 'punish' the republicans for being insufficiently pure in doctrine led directly to the Clinton and Obama administrations, for which these extremists - predictably - denied any responsibility. Now, having shot one foot in 2008 by sitting out the election and putting Obama in the White House, they believe it's time to take aim at the other foot.

The debt crisis will be resolved. One hopes for a deal to be made in the next couple days (with the media attention as it is, we should have expected a last-minute deal all along, since sober and mature work on an early deal would never fit the Hollywood-style script which has been the theme for all major news stories in a generation), but in one way or another the issue will be worked out. It will satisfy few, and please even fewer, but it will get us through the moment. What gets lost in all of the bickering and bluster, is that politicians always revise and change laws and bills. Whether to add new taxes and fees or change the scope of law, Congress always feels the need to be making changes. Whatever is done in the next couple days, it will certainly be amended and altered some time in the future, because this is the record of Congress.

Which brings us to the silent priority of the debate: The 2012 election. Democrats imagine that the 2010 election can be undone and they can regain control of the House of Representatives, while republicans intend to hold the House and make gains in the Senate, possibly taking control there if things work out well enough, and both parties know the White House is very much up for grabs in 2012, with all the obvious significance of that office. The winner of that election will depend in large part on how the general public perceives the resolution of the current debate and crisis. Democrats are fools to imagine they can sit on their hands and gain public support, but republicans need to control the perception of their own efforts. If they win the day but lose next year, all their ideals and hard work will count for nothing. It's far better to get the best realistic deal they can for now, and get their message across in a calm, clear manner.

Know Your Audience

Back in 2009, I finished my MBA work with a Strategic Management course, which ended the year with a Case Competition. The target company was PetSmart, and my team came up with some great recommendations, creative and effective ways to create competitive advantage and grow the company at little cost. My report earned 99% from the professor, and his critiques of our presentation rehearsals praised us and gave us high hopes to win. But when the actual competition happened, a couple members of my team froze and we failed to place in the top three slots. Besides some presentation anxiety by my team, we made the mistake of not carefully considering our audience. We had prepared for our professor and designed our presentation as if we were actually going before the board at PetSmart with our recommendations. What we had not considered was that some of the judges were students from prior years who had won the competition. These judges, to our surprise, did not stick to the criteria outlined in the competition profile, and none of the judges were previously briefed on PetSmart’s corporate strategy and goals published in their 2008 annual report. In the lunch following the competition, I discovered that the judges did not even realize that some of the recommendations from winning teams contradicted PetSmart’s actual stated objectives and priorities. Many of the judges made decisions based in large part on style rather than substance, and this cost us in the competition. The lesson I took from that experience reminded me that many decisions are based on emotion rather than reason, and anyone hoping to sell their position effectively must consider their audience and prepare their argument for the people they have the best chance to persuade. The current crisis with the debt ceiling, therefore, will have short-term and long-term winners and losers, in significant part due to how well each side understands its audience.

The decision basically comes down to four groups; unrealistic liberals who imagine they can continue to spend without consequences (a minority of the democrats but visceral in emotion and support), Tea Partiers who refuse to accept any increase in the debt limit or increase in government ‘revenues’ for any reason, democrats who want more tax increases than spending cuts, and republicans who demand spending cuts must be significantly greater than any increase in money the government collects. The people outside those four groups are neither large nor organized enough to play much role in the debate or decision. The decision therefore comes down to the following questions:

1. Is it necessary to raise the debt ceiling?
2. Is it realistic to address the debt with just spending cuts?
3. What solution do voters want?
4. What will the voters absolutely not accept?
5. What spending cuts are acceptable?
6. What ‘revenue’ increases will voters accept?

First, the ceiling. As much as I hate to say it, the debt ceiling in this case does need to be raised. The problem is that the Congress waited so long to address the problem that we don’t have the time or slack to figure out a solution before we blow through that limit. Refusing to raise the debt ceiling at this time is in the same class of decision as slamming on the brakes when the car starts to skid, a panic response which generally leads to bigger problems.

Next, the cut-only approach. In theory, we should be able to fix the problem by just cutting back on spending. The problem is that we have three classes of spending that can’t easily be reduced; essential needs, entitlements, and the interest on our existing debt. Cutting the first would be suicidal, cutting the second will be hard to get passed into law, and the third is simply not possible. We also have to face the fact that republicans control only the House of Representatives, while the democrats control the Senate and White House. Anything passed into law will have to get support from democrats, enough to compel the President to sign it. That does not mean we just accept whatever the democrats demand, but it does mean we have to accept the reality of our limits as well as our power.

Third and fourth are the questions of what voters want and won’t accept. As much as we like to imagine that America is full of people who think the same way we do, in truth that’s just not so. There are regional, cultural, and social considerations which have to be considered, including the way Congress’ actions will be received by the public. Obama is lying when he claims most of America wants tax hikes, but it is true that most voters believe that some kind of tax increase will be necessary, and many believe those increases can be implemented by making some other group of people pay the increase; on the Left there is the broad belief that a lot of “rich” people are not paying enough, while on the Right there is a broad belief that some people who don’t have to pay income tax should be forced to do so now. There has been no specific poll taken which shows popular support for a tax increase that would affect the specific people polled.

Just about everyone not named ‘Obama’ understands that the main problem is spending, and that serious cuts need to be made. When two and a half trillion dollars a year is not enough to pay for what you are buying, you have a problem no matter who you are. The trick is to figure out what gets cut. Democrats demand defense cuts, and to be sure there may be programs to reduce or abolish there, but that’s hardly the first place to cut. Republicans want Obamacare repealed, which would certainly reduce a lot of costs, but would be impossible to get through the Senate or signed by President Obama. Ultimately, this is the main hurdle for negotiations; everyone knows cuts need to be made, but no one can agree on specifics. What will probably happen in the end, is a general reduction in department budgets, and everyone will have to make do with less. It’s not the wisest course, but given the time constraint, it may be the only one which can go into effect in time.

The next point brings us back to revenue. President Obama does not like to be clear about raising taxes, but let’s be very blunt – if you bring more money into government, you have to do it by raising taxes. Someone is paying more, no matter what you call the action. And since taxation is inherently parasitic in nature, any increase in taxes – no matter who pays – will damage the economy at a time when this would have serious repercussions. Voters have figured this out, which is one reason the 2010 election turned out as it did, and this recognition is why Senate Majority Leader Reid backed off tax hikes in his own plan presented this week. While we must be careful to watch what happens in the next several months, as the temptation to slip in taxes, fees and rate increases will be very strong, for the moment it appears that Congress at least understands that cuts must be the primary focus, and the secondary focus as well.

Let’s look at that debt, for an understanding of the situation. The debt, as of March 31, stood at $14.825 trillion, an obscenely large number no matter how it’s presented.

$3.7 trillion was held in General government long-term notes, with another $3.6 trillion in ‘Other sector’ long-term bonds and notes. This is actually good news, as it means just about half the debt is held in bonds and notes that will come due over a long period of time, with only about $365 billion coming due each year in principal.

Another $1.7 trillion dollars was held in currency and deposits in banks, with another $583 billion in currency and deposits in other sectors and monetary authorities. That’s money being used in circulation, and while it’s a good idea to reduce that amount a bit once the economy gets going again, for now we can take the news that this money is not ‘coming due’ in the sense that we normally apply to debt.

Money Market instruments account for another $884 billion, which means some liability, but like long-term bonds the payments due are not generally immediate. Even ‘short term’ debts won’t all come due in August. Another $2.5 trillion is held in loans, which also are repaid over time. All in all, the debt situation is difficult but manageable, provided the government simply gets spending under control.

Here’s a more detailed look at where the money has gone. In simple terms, the Federal Reserve is telling us that our debt is held by a lot of creditors, some overseas, but for the most part the money we owe is to ourselves. That does not mean it does not have to be paid, and paid on time, of course. We have obligations to fund essential services, and the whole concept of bonds and loans depends on confidence that the loans will be paid according to the contracted terms. And the weight of the debt total is simply too big, and cannot be sustained indefinitely. And as wiser observers have noted, if the U.S. gets into trouble, there is simply no one available to bail us out. The Congress has to find a practical solution, and set things in motion in the next five days.

Which brings us back to the audience. Whatever is finally done to address the debt problem, the public will make their opinion known rather quickly, and it is therefore essential for republicans and democrats, both, to understand the perspective of people to whom they are listening, and with whom they should be talking. Listening to radio and reading blogs, I have observed that the avowed Tea Party members have promised fierce primary opposition to “anyone” who supports the Boehner plan, simply because even if it passes it would not be a complete and total victory. Leaving aside the obvious fact that anything that would completely please the Tea Party Clique would have absolutely no chance of passing the democrat-controlled Senate, or getting the signature of President Obama, I would also note that Allen West and Paul Ryan support the Boehner plan. Not because it is perfect, but because it is the best plan available with a realistic chance of passing through the Congress. To put it plainly, anyone calling themselves conservative who would attack Allen West and Paul Ryan, is representative neither of conservative values or intellectual maturity, and should not be taken seriously by the people making important decisions. Similarly, the people still obsessed with class warfare and tax hikes to fix the government’s spending crisis should be ignored by anyone trying to find viable solutions or read the public will. What most people want and demand is simply a reasonable approach to the problem and a serious attempt to cut down on spending. Scare tactics have no place in the debate, nor do ultimatums by politicians or special interest groups. Three hundred million Americans are going to be affected by the decision and resolve of the Congress, so it’s high time the Congress address the broad majority who are simply demanding Congress and the President stop making threats and speeches, and put together a solution, starting by voting on the plans already available.

Why He Will, Why he Won’t

President Obama has made it quite clear that he has one goal, and only one goal, on his mind: Getting re-elected. It seems therefore appropriate to give a look at his chances, and his problems.

First, a look back at 2008. Barack Obama and Joe Biden teamed up to beat John McCain and Sarah Palin, 365 electoral votes to 173 and 66.86 million votes to 58.32 million. In other words, Obama claimed 95 electoral votes more than he needed to win, and enjoyed a popular margin of eight and a half million votes. Reasons for the win depend on who you ask, but common responses point out the novelty of Obama’s run as a black candidate, McCain’s lack of charisma and eloquence, the declining public image of the Bush Administration, worry over the economy, and conservatives abandoning the GOP. It produced a perfect storm for Obama, which raises the obvious question about whether he can work such magic again.

First, the factors which work for Obama. There has been some discussion about a possible fight for Obama to claim the Democrats’ nomination in 2012 if he gets into public trouble, but it’s not very likely to work out that way. The media, for example, has been very much a pal to President Obama; his ‘honeymoon’ has lasted throughout his first term with every indication that the major networks and press will continue to act as lackeys for him for the foreseeable future. To change support for a different candidate would require these networks to abandon Obama while he remains in office, an unlikely prospect. Further, there is the historical record. No president running for re-election has failed to claim his party nomination since LBJ in 1968 (and no incumbent party has nominated a candidate who was neither the sitting president nor vice-president since 1952). It’s reasonable to say on just these two points alone, that if Barack Obama is not nominated by the Democrats in 2012, then the winner of the 2012 Presidential Election will be the Republican.

The next point to consider is Obama’s Job Approval. Obama’s present approval according to Gallup has dropped to 42 percent, just one point above his worst ever from April this year and October 2010. The thing is, the worst Obama has received is 41 percent approval. Compare that to Bill Clinton, whose approval support in the first seven months of 1995 ranged from 42 percent to 51 percent. Pretty similar, it seems. In any case, the numbers show that despite his abysmal job performance, Obama continues to enjoy enough support that he is very well-positioned to win another term.

The third factor to consider in Obama’s favor is the Republican field. Obama won in 2008 with unintentional help from the Republicans, who spent the bulk of the campaign feuding with each other, which led to a nomination which pleased few and angered many on the Right. One might think the bitter lesson would have been learned, but so far the field for the coming election is behaving much like the 2008 field did, with serious reason to fear a similar outcome.

Put these three factors together, and you have a problem for Republicans, and given how he has performed, for the nation. Fortunately, there are also a number of strong reasons why Barack Obama will have a hard time winning re-election.

First and foremost is Obama’s record. Since 1916, seven of the last ten presidents to seek re-election won their contest, but the three who lost (Hoover in 1932, Carter in 1980, and GHW Bush in 1992) all lost because of the economy. In a word, Jobs. If unemployment is high, the incumbent is in trouble. And that problem is especially bad for Mr. Obama, whose policies have pretty much done nothing but make things worse for the economy. Obama inherited an unemployment rate of 7.8% but has averaged 9.4% since taking office; the rate has not been below nine percent since May of 2009. Despite his attempts to blame Bush for the problem, Obama owns this record. What’s worse for Obama, his pet programs target employment at most public corporations, so Obama can effectively reduce unemployment only by abandoning his signature policies.

The second problem for Obama is the polling. Frank Newport of Gallup observed Presidents who have a 48 percent or better approval tend to win re-election, while those below do not. In that context, his present 42-43 percent approval levels are a warning to Obama that he is in trouble. Worse for Obama, he’s been able to get bumps only for short periods of time no matter what he says or does; not very much like Clinton after all, perhaps. Especially since Bill Clinton understood that his political survival depended on the economy improving, something Obama shows no sign of grasping. While it’s certainly believable that Obama could find a way to bring his approval up a few points to reach that tipping point, the clear momentum is working against him, and if he drops below 40 percent as he seems to be headed now, then time will become an implacable enemy.

The third problem for Obama is, well, Obama. He ran on a lot of promises in 2008, casting himself essentially as a non-partisan visionary and peacemaker. It’s more than plain by now that the real Barack Obama is a thin-skinned paranoid narcissist with delusions of competency; he wavers between indecision and bad judgment, all the while complaining that he doesn’t get enough credit and admiration. On the one hand, it may be observed that Obama has fired up conservatives to get back into the national debate again, although some may argue that Obama should not waste time thinking about people he cannot win over anyway; but on the other, Obama has also outraged many on the Left with his broken promises regarding Guantanamo, Iraq, and other liberal demands. While as President of the United States Barack Obama holds tremendous power and influence, his habit of making enemies so readily means that if pressed into desperation, he has few allies who will come to his aid unless they gain from the action themselves; no one supports a tyrant out of agreement with his character.

Obama’s next problem is the Tea Party. Political movements spring up all the time, but officials would do well to note those which genuinely start at the grassroots, and which focus on only one or a few key issues, because those don’t go away without making changes in the landscape … and in politicians who refuse to notice the change in reality. The Tea Party was a significant force in the 2010 midterm elections, and ignoring them is just plain foolish. Dismissing the Tea Party’s significance can be a bad idea, in battleground states where concerns about federal spending and accountability influence not only votes but the debates of the election. This does not mean that Obama will lose because the Tea Party does not like him, but his ignorance of the movement’s identity and influence could damage his campaign in several states.

The next problem, and the big one, is the Republican nominee. Obama had an easy time beating John McCain in 2008, but it’s very unlikely the GOP will nominate someone that weak this time. In 2008 conservatives were disillusioned and bitter, producing no significant candidates and contributing little to the campaign. The main body of republican voters this time is more conservative and active, and they are also better-focused. Guys who talk but can’t deliver (like Thompson), or ‘centrist’ republicans eager to give in to democrats in order to ‘get along’ (like McCain) will find the going harder than last time. This does not give the inside track to image-first candidates with weak resumes (Bachman or Palin), but builds a stage for experienced leaders who understand what will really work. While this will mean the republican nominee won’t emerge for a while yet, when he does it will be someone the voters can identify by values and commitment, and he will be a sharp contrast with President Superficial.

How it shakes out, is in the math. There’s no doubt that Obama has lost a lot of support, and in all likelihood will be less compelling in 2012 than he was in 2008. But having 95 more electoral votes than he needed in 2008 means that even a weakened Obama could still win. The question is just how many of the states will swing away from Obama to the republican. In 2008, Obama won DC and 29 states, but if his support falls by just three points he loses five states, and if he drops by five points he loses eleven states.You may choose to disagree, but unless the republicans thoroughly destroy their chances, they’re looking at their best opportunity to rout the democrats in a presidential election by the largest margin since Reagan’s win in 1984.

Guess The Source

Emotion, yet peace.

Ignorance, yet knowledge.

Passion, yet serenity.

Chaos, yet harmony.

Death, yet Life.

Just a Thought I Had

What is true is true, no matter the language or custom. What is hateful is hateful, no matter how well-argued its reason or how popular its habit. Therefore, anyone who loves and helps his neighbor is not only my neighbor but my brother, and anyone who seeks truth is to me a teacher as well.



But it is hard for many to put away fear, just as they hold doubt in their hearts, which is why they make such noise when proclaiming their belief; they hope it will drown out their own doubt and fear.



Time may not change this, but growth and maturity shall do so, no matter the starting place.



This, at least, is my belief and practice.

The Need for a College Education

I notice that education has come under attack again. For examples, a Washington Post article challenges the value of a college education, and the Town Hall website suggests that many people should start a business rather than go to college. It’s become a trendy thing, challenging the value of a college education. It’s also a very risky thing, and many of the challenges are intellectually dishonest.

According to the Small Business Administration, about half of all new businesses fail within 5 years. But the University of Buffalo released a study showing the failure rate to be much higher rate, at 80% failure within five years. It’s difficult to track precisely, but the general message should be clear that simply starting a business does not mean it will survive, let alone become successful. And it’s not hard to figure that while some business owners are unfortunate, failure to study, plan and work hard will contribute to failure. In other words, if someone is a poor student, they would probably be a poor business owner as well. The people attacking schools for failures miss the fact that intelligence, diligence and inspiration are uncommon traits, and it’s not the schools’ fault if someone does not do their work. They get worked up about the cost, but really , from a historic perspective it has always been expensive and difficult to get a really good education, and if someone really does their homework, so to speak, they can get their credentials for a lot less than some other people. But the main reason the challenges fail, is because the challengers do not understand the basic purpose and function of collegiate education in the first place.

My dad grew up in the Depression. His first job was a factory shift when he was 8 years old. The child labor laws were not of much concern to folks in those days, nor were safety or compensation standards. He came to believe that the key to getting a better life was to get a solid education, so he earned a Bachelor’s in Chemical Engineering and a Masters in Mathematics. He also took some business courses at Wharton. My father made it clear to all of his children, that he expected us to do as well as possible in school. My mom earned a Bachelor’s in Sociology, and four degrees were earned by the four children, in six majors. My brother did not earn a degree, my sister and I earned a Bachelor’s degree in Literature and I later earned my MBA, and my other sister triple-majored in Chemistry, Physics, and Business for her Bachelor’s. Between my parents and us kids, we earned seven degrees plus certifications in nine majors at seven different universities. I believe I can claim we represent broad experience in education.

Besides the practical value my dad felt that advanced education represents, my father also felt that education was mental exercise, a vital need to seek intellectual growth just the same as we should use nutrition and physical exercise to develop our bodies, and join religious and ethical organizations to grow as moral individuals. Long before continuing education became commonplace, my dad believed and taught that a person should never consider their education complete or finished. I mention this because my values largely follow the same line of opinion. I also think that these additional points need to be included in the discussion.

Let’s start, then, but addressing the biggest real problem in the college decision – most young students are not able to make a good decision about college on their own. We live in a world where people get into routines and tend to do what they believe is expected from them. So a lot of kids know by the end of high school whether they are going to college, not because they have thought out the decision with the care it should be given, but because they know what is expected. The decision will only be about cost, opportunity, difficulty, or value to a very small degree; it will generally be about what the person’s family and friends say and do about the matter. As a result, if you are friends or family with someone going into their last couple years of high school, or if they talk about deciding on going to college, speak up and let them know what you think.

The next thing to consider is the career path you want to follow. The people criticizing college seem to imagine that only college students have hard choices. But for good or ill, life in general is hard and a lot of young people have no real idea what they are getting into when they choose their lifestyle. Media is not helpful; the celebrities and glamorous people we see in movies and television, look, they are just not normal folks. In fact, even the stars and athletes often warn folks that the image does not match even their own reality. Most new businesses fail, as I said earlier, so the idea that kids coming out of high school should plan on being the next instant millionaire is pretty close to being complete fiction. And working for a living straight out of high school with no special training or advance education, is a ticket straight to hard times and a poor future. When you get right down to it, what everyone needs to do is reach a place where they understand the three circles of their career horizon; what you are able to do, what you want to do, and what someone is willing to pay you to do. That’s it, simple but hard to work out. And answering those questions takes the ability called critical thinking, which is not often taught anywhere these days. I’m not saying you get perfect results from talking things out with your family and friends, or from trying to figure out what you want to be in 20 years, but you’ll definitely get a better sense of which path is better for your situation right now.

The decision about education also can be seen as a window of opportunity. Back when I graduated high school, there was really only one way to go to a decent school; full-time at a school and on-campus, living in the dorm and basically immersing yourself totally in the school’s culture. And in those days, almost everyone at college started right after high school; the older students were generally military veterans or professionals seeking advanced degrees and certification. Alternatives to traditional colleges existed, but these were generally night schools and were commonly regarded as inferior educational opportunities. Today, the demographic is much broader as is the window of opportunity. In addition to full and part-time campuses, there are online courses, commuter campuses, and a number of flexible options. Accreditation insures the quality of education provided, and the smart individual can check out a school on virtually any desired criteria prior to submitting an application. Cost, regimen, focus and degree criteria can all be determined and compared, and should be weighed in balance to the student’s need. The days of one-size-fits-all are long gone, and it is well that they should be.

The critics of modern education blame the schools, which is sometimes deserved, and a culture which demands a degree for most professional positions, or to advance in a company. What these critics fail to consider, is that the student has the right and responsibility to choose their path, that there is good historical reason for believing that higher education produces, generally, superior employees, and the critics completely fail to grasp that non-collegiate careers are generally limited, low-paying, and, well, dismal. This is another reason why anyone deciding about college should talk carefully with their family and friends – the consequences of the decision are literally life-changing, and you should not make a decision that important on the advice of strangers.

A college degree does not guarantee a person is competent, nor intelligent, nor really much of anything. But if you’re considering hiring them for your company, your part includes interviewing them and asking the right questions. There’s no use blaming the educational system if you get lousy people because you make a choice on appearances and don’t find out about the person you’re bringing aboard. Same thing if you’re considering education for any other reason; you need to find from the individual what he or she really understands and about their character and personality. Come to that, if you choose to enroll at a college, and the courses you take do not challenge you, force you to grow, then it’s your responsibility to do something about it. College-level students are presumed to be adults, and adults are responsible for their decisions and choices. Choosing the right school, the right regimen, and working hard to produce your best possible results can change your life for the better, but simply going to college is not enough. Conversely, while a college graduate is not guaranteed to be smarter or harder working than someone who did not go to college, a degree proves that the individual had enough initiative, intelligence, and follow-through to accomplish the degree, while not going to college proves nothing of the sort. Many companies require management candidates to have college degrees, because the degree demonstrates at least a minimal level of discipline and accomplishment; at the very least, a college graduate can be trained for somewhat detailed work and to gain additional skills. A college graduate has demonstrated at least a willingness to grow and expand his or her horizons.

The critics also have a habit of sneering at degrees they consider non-academic, especially business degrees. Of course, by that myopic mindset one should reject medical school for ignoring literature, law school for ignoring biology, and even the liberal arts for focusing on just one area within the academic realm. Never mind that most people go to college in hopes of acquiring a marketable skill, and many businesses sponsor executives to return to school for specific training relevant to their work. Anyone who sneers at a student with a 3.5+ GPA proves their self an idiot unworthy of further consideration. Work is work, and accomplishment which sets a student apart from his or her peers deserves praise and recognition. Some folks simply don’t understand case studies don’t work the same way as rote memorization, but still count for developing relevant competency, that skills-based coursework in quantitative analysis is as valid as traditional math, and serves a more direct application, and that simulations and models in business theory are as valid as in the ‘hard’ sciences. Perhaps more so, because modern scientists seldom seem willing to test their assumptions and double-check whether their models produced valid results. At least business students understand the Deming Cycle.

In the end, we each make our own choices regarding career and education, and it’s no one else’s fault if we make bad choices. We have all the tools we need to succeed, and while success is not guaranteed, opportunity is abundant and a college degree is, in general, still the best road to intellectual competency and financial success.

A Thief In Amber – Fifth Draft (Still Very Very Rough)

Some people are hard to kill. I don’t mean the moral decision to kill, but the difficulty in getting someone to die, who is stubbornly opposed to the idea. Some people are hard to kill because they are physically tough, some have one of those spirits that refuses to quit, and some are just plain durable.

And some spirits exist for the fight.

It was in the early days, before all the betrayals and family intrigues … OK, we always had those going on, but this was back in the days when we still imagined that we played by the rules. You couldn’t attempt to murder a sibling then, without at least feigning innocence, and alliance with genocidal maniacs was only allowed if said monsters were friends of Oberon.

So, when word got out that someone or something was making its way through the halls of Castle Amber at night, killing members of the staff and generally hurting the castle’s reputation for fine dining and keeping folks safe from threats to their safety, the family decided it was time to take matters in hand. And, being expected to take the lead, I did so.

Oberon, as he commonly did, was traveling and away from Amber. Caine and Gerard were at sea and therefore also unavailable. Dierdre and Llewellen on a diplomatic mission for the Golden Circle, Brand, Random and Eric were out of the city for reasons not known to anyone else in the family, or if known not shared with me. That, of course, was also a reason for me to take charge; it would gall Eric no end if I could resolve things before he even heard about them … and give me no end of amusement if I could find a way to suggest he was somehow responsible for the problem. I was in those years when I was trying to show up everyone else, and convinced I looked good doing it. So it was that four princes and two princesses gathered for dinner, as we often did when we wanted to discuss issues of importance, and to imagine ourselves civilized.

The food was fine. The conversation, however, was wholly unsatisfying. It soon became apparent that none of us knew what was really going on, had any idea who or what was behind the attacks, and no one wanted to appear as helpless as we all felt.

After dinner, we all went to the library for drinks, and a second try at strategy. That fell apart as soon we chose our drinks. I watched as we chose different drinks, then different seats. Hell, we weren’t even looking at each other. I tried logic, first sitting with Benedict, who usually presented the best plan for dealing with any threat to Amber, but Benedict was even less talkative than usual. I followed with Julian, who was still angry with me for a prior disagreement, and he refused to even acknowledge my presence.

And so it went until I came to Fiona.

I knew something was about, when she smiled at my approach. Fiona and I never shared amusements or ideals, so a smile from her could only come at my cost. It also struck as strange that she seemed to be enjoying the present crisis. Was she its instigator, or if not, what was the source of her pleasure in this moment? I chose a drink, a seat, and a gambit.

“Hello Fiona”, I said. “You couldn’t just kill your enemies in a duel, like anyone else in the family?”

Fiona glared at me for a moment, then that smile returned as she realized – all too quickly – that I was just trying to draw her out.

“You play at things you do not understand, Corwin”, she answered. “As usual.

“I have no interest in your word games, and I must say I disapprove of your manners, and their lack.”

“I am not playing a game here” I protested, “but hunting the cause and source of our present threat. It is an elusive bird, truth, one which seems to be hidden by at least one of our princesses.”

Fiona smirked and replied, “Whereas wit is a bird that eludes the hand of rather too many princes.”

I shrugged. “Your disapproval concerns me even less than usual, Fi. All things considered.”

She tossed her head, red hair like a fall of flame. “Yet, perhaps it should. All things considered.”

I did things with my own eyebrows, emptied my glass, swung my boots down from the table, and headed for the door.

She chuckled, behind me.

I stopped, refrained from turning, and waited. Fiona could never resist showing the rest of us that she was a step ahead. Or pretending to be.

“You are wearing your blade,” she said. “Good.”

I went out, uttering no clever comments. With at least three murderous ghosts stalking Castle Amber, the time for such things was past.’

Hours passed, as I waited with blade drawn and senses wary, sitting in the hallway outside a row of rooms where I thought an appearance most likely by one or more of our homicidal specters.

I guessed wrong. The most dangerous thing to pass my way that night was an odor wafting from Julian’s room. I could pretend it was some feral scent from our nocturnal attackers, but I am sure it was simply the unwashed aroma of a pair of his dogs. In any case, I saw no spirits floating about, encountered no need to use my weapon, and generally felt like I was wasting my time.

Until I heard Flora scream. Down another hall, and far from my chosen station. Naturally. Or un-naturally. Whatever.

I felt damn foolish as I ran towards Flora’s room, hoping my missed guess would not be a costly mistake.

Fortunately, the volume of Flora’s shouts was not matched by actual peril. That is, Flora was not a passive screamer; when assailed by spirits coming at her, as she claimed, from within the walls, she not only cried for help but began throwing things at her attackers. It was hard to tell if any of them was some effective weapon, or the sheer volume of makeup, jewelry, hair care items and mirrors had thwarted their aggression. For all I knew, Flora had surprised them as much as they surprised her. There was no way to be sure. For the moment, we all relaxed in the discovery that our disembodied attackers seemed able to make mistakes, and we felt more confident that we ourselves were perhaps immune to their threat.

Then Bleys found Julian, more than half-dead in his quarters. Julian did not appear for breakfast, and Bleys was the first to check his rooms. I began to wonder why I had not heard anything from my vigilant post, and why Julian’s dogs had done nothing to defend him.

Also, for some reason Julian had not worn his armor the previous night. That cost him. He had been attacked from behind, as was evident by the burn marks on his back. He had fought off his attackers, but his arms, back, and legs were badly burned. I wished I could ask Julian what he had seen, and how he had fought off his assailants, but he was in a coma from his injuries, or the same thing for practical purposes. Benedict saw to his wounds and set a guard to door, with instructions to call him the instant Julian awoke – or anything appeared that might be the spirit murderers coming to finish the job.

I was not friendly with Julian, but an attack on family trumped personal arguments. Besides, just as I stood to gain from Eric’s humiliation if I could solve a mystery he was not around to handle, so too I would suffer my own humiliation if I could not resolve the problem right in front of me – and if a brother prince died on my watch, especially one I was not close to, I could count on Eric making me pay for it. And Father had made it clear that he counted fratricide as unforgivable. Failing to protect a brother was guilt by omission, and I knew that no defense I could present would clear me unless Julian lived. And I resolved the mystery and destroyed the threat.

I spoke to Benedict again, and – while cryptic – his comments included suggestions on where I might try my next vigil, and when I might expect to meet my foes.

It was very late, or rather early, before one of the walls opened in a place where it should not have done, and something that was both silver and shadow joined me.

Grayswandir felt good in my hand as I put down what I was finished drinking anyway, and waited.

Patience, they say, is a chiefly a virtue for statues, but I’d made more than my share of mistakes, thus far, and blood is hell to get out of good rugs.

Came a whisper, out of darkness. “Corwin, is it time?”

A fight for my life, I expected. Temporal confusion from the spooks, I have to admit, I did not see coming.

“No, go back to sleep”, I tried. OK, not a brilliant strategy, but I was tired and didn’t expect the question anyway.

There was a moment of silence, then the forms began to take shape. I expected something, I don’t know, human-like and perhaps demonic. These were, after all, undead spirits seeking to kill the living. Nor was I wrong.

Not exactly.

The attackers swirled into the room like sentient fog, and quickly surrounded me. I suddenly realized something was behind me, taking more substantial shape, and – I felt dread rush up my spine – preparing to strike me the same it had attacked Julian.

Something like lightning flashed, and surprised me. Mostly because the lightning came from inside the room … from Grayswandir.

I jumped to my feet, swinging up Grayswandir with one arm as I threw the book behind me into the – face? – of my posterior assailant. I heard the book smack into something, which swore as if hurt, and I pivoted, putting my back against the wall while swinging my sword into a guard position. Then I stopped.

That was a mistake.

The spirits, once the sword, stopped moving, resumed their attack, and I felt a crackle of something hot shoot past my head, striking the wall hard as if a crossbow bolt. Something else, like a burning lasso, wrapped my boots and tried to trip me. I hopped reflexively, brought my sword up again and swung it about me as if trying to burn cobwebs with a torch.

And shadows fled before me, and I was alone.

My book was on the floor, blackened. Damn. I watched lightning flicker and wondered if I would ever know what I fought, or why. Family politics seemed as tiresome as ever.

Three ghosts, Benedict had said, and had been on the brink of saying more ere his face had smoothed and he’d turned away.

Which meant he’d recognized the one he’d seen.

So had the lamplighter, before the ghost that slew him caught up with him and burned his skull bare, from within.

Coln had died, before that, and one of the cooks. Seven maids, or more by now, since.

Then they started on us. Flora had almost fallen to one, and then Julian. Almost.

We’re tough meat, we of Amber.’

Speaking of meat, I found myself famished. Deciding between preparing for a second round with the spooks, alerting the rest of the family to my attack, and getting an early breakfast, the stomach spoke with the greatest authority. Besides, I was somehow sure the attack for the night was done, and I needed to think through what had just happened before I spoke to anyone else. If one of us was behind the attacks, I had no intention of giving out thoughts on how to make sure I was properly killed next time.

I made my way to the kitchen and found it empty, as I hoped it would be. A half-dozen eggs, some cheese, ham and the appropriate spices produced a passable omelet, which I ate with coffee I made while I thought over the attack. I’m a good enough cook, but the quality of thoughts I considered diminished my appetite a bit.

I realized that I had to share my encounter, with at least one person. The attacks on Flora, then Julian so close afterwards showed that anyone could be next, and I had to help protect the innocent. If only I could be sure none among us was the guilty …

I decided on Benedict. He had shared the plan to catch out the spirits, so I already owed him a report on the attack for that reason. Also, he was the least likely to try a sneak attack on any of us – and if he had, his victims would not have survived. No, this was not Benedict’s trick, whatever it was.

I found him sitting with Julian. Julian remained still and lifeless, to all appearances. Enough to make his usual loquacity and stiff behavior seem positive ebullient. Benedict was not much more enthusiastic. I think I knew why. Julian was not so strong as some of us, but a prince of Amber should not be laid low so easily by anything. He seemed not to be resting, so much as lying helpless. That could be any one of us, even Benedict, and I could see that in Benedict’s thin, grim face.

“No change, Corwin”, said Benedict, as I entered the bedroom.

“So I see”, I answered. “But I have news for you.”

I handed Benedict the scorched book from my encounter as he rose from his seat. He looked at it, then met my eyes with his own.

“You encountered them, then?” he asked.

I nodded.

“Yes, but unlike you, I did not recognize any of them” I said, watching for a reaction to my observation. But Benedict remained solemn and still, as was his usual mood, even in happier times.

I waited for him to speak, but Benedict simply held my gaze, and after a moment. I continued.

“Yes, I was attacked”, I said. “Where you said they would likely be, and only an hour or so after the time you predicted. Which makes me curious, of course, how you knew …?”

I somehow expected Benedict to smile at being prescient, but he remained solemn. I also expected him to provide more helpful information, but I was wrong on that count as well.

“What do you know about this, Corwin?” asked Benedict, his left hand casually resting on the hilt of a dagger he had on his belt. There was no menace in his tone, but Benedict was clear in his meaning.

“Of the attacks? Nothing to speak of, Benedict.” I replied. “I told you my thoughts the last time we spoke, and I am trying to free us from who or whatever is attacking us.”

“Convenient, though”, remarked Benedict, “that you were the closest to Julian of us all, and yet you saw and heard nothing when he was attacked.”

“I know”, I protested, “and you know I would have arranged an alibi if I were going to attack Julian. Like, say, being away from Amber during the attacks?”

Benedict shook his head in irritation.

“Don’t start that stupid game again, of plots and intrigue, Corwin.”

“I won’t”, I replied, “as long as you agree to stop accusing me of being behind the attacks I’m trying to stop.”

Benedict sighed.

“All right”, he agreed. “But you were attacked, yourself, yet you have not yet told me about it.”

So I did. Including my reluctance to trust the full story to anyone in our family who might be the plotter behind the ghosts.

Benedict sighed again.

“I hate to agree with you on this, Corwin” he said, “but I sense that these attacks are part of something larger.

“And until we find a way to stop it, our danger will only grow.”

“So how do you think you escaped –” Benedict stopped and glanced down at Julian’s unmoving figure.

“Grayswandir” I said simply. “They’re afraid of it, for some reason.”

I remembered something just then.

“And I think Fiona knows they are afraid of it.” I continued. “The evening before Flora and Julian were attacked, she commented on my blade.”

Benedict grimly nodded.
“Go speak to Fiona” he said. We rose together, and he stopped for a moment in thought.

“Be direct,” he advised, “She will think she’s ahead of us, and she might be, but she might lose some of her nerve if you give her reason to think she could have missed something important.

“Good luck, Corwin” said Benedict. “Call me on my trump if you need me, but no matter what, be careful.

“Your blade may help protect you from these ghosts, but you still have to find the hand behind the spirit.” With that, Benedict turned his attention back to Julian.

But Fiona had anticipated more than my fight with the ghosts. Her room was empty, but she left a note in a sealed envelope addressed to me.

Of course, being Fiona, she had put a spell on the envelope which prevented anyone from opening it without saying the right phrase. I tried the normal and predictable phrases I knew she had used in the past to goad brothers and sisters, and since it was addressed to me I included ones she had taunted me with, like ‘Fiona is wise, Corwin tells lies’, that kind of thing. A tired and juvenile game, but Fiona liked to play that kind of thing often.

But this time there were no such games. Fiona had laughed the last time we spoke, but it seemed her mood had changed by the time she wrote her note. I called up Benedict on his trump and explained the situation. He had no advice except to tell me to keep trying.

I kept at it for more than an hour, then threw down the envelope muttering, “I give up”.

The seal appeared and broke on the envelope. I seized it and pulled out the note.

‘Corwin, hello’ began the note. ‘That you are reading this proves either that I am a great fool and feared for no good cause, or that you are as strong as I believed … or as lucky.

‘I have left the Eternal City for the present, because the forces you fight are as unpredictable as they are strong. I know them well enough to give you information, and well enough to flee them while they present a threat to us all. My craft and skills are useless as weapons against them. You, however, have the means to resolve the matter, and sufficient luck that I trust you will survive. I have bet much on your success.’

I smiled grimly at Fiona’s confidence in betting my life on the matter.

‘Trust your sword but not your brothers’, the note continued, and I chuckled at Fiona repeating such a well-known maxim among us, ‘except one whose sword suits the need even better than your own. Ask him nicely …’

I stopped and pondered for a moment who the hell Fiona could mean, then went back to the last part of the note.
‘… and strike you both one step to the LEFT of where you normally aim. Strike twice, but not at yourself.

‘Good luck, Corwin.’

If I did not know her better, that last line would have made me wonder about Fiona’s state of mind. I handed the note to Benedict, rather than have to read those instructions out loud.

Benedict read the note twice, or else slowly, then looked me in the eye.

“She wrote this for you, Corwin. Any idea how she knew you’d be the one to find it?”

“None.” I replied. “Anymore than how she knew you’d be here.”

“She wrote nothing of me” protested Benedict.

“I think she did” I said. “That line about a sword better-suited than my own. With Eric and Brand not here, she has to have meant you.”

Benedict paused in thought for a moment, then nodded sharply.

“Actually, Corwin, she might know my weapons better than I do – at least one of them. I know of a blade which might help here, but I am surprised that Fiona would know of it.”

“She seems to know a lot more than she is revealing”, I commented . “Is that blade of your accessible?”

“Oddly, yes” said Benedict. “Fiona asked about it just last week, when all of this was still largely unknown for the threat it has become.

“It makes me wonder how she considered the threat,” he pondered. “As much as I hate to cast suspicion, Corwin, this point concerns me.”

“I also wonder”, I agreed, careful not to go further with my thoughts. I could not help but wonder, though, if my sister had not started something she found she could not control.

Benedict stopped to Julian’s door, said a few words and handed something small to the guards he had posted. Then he strode away, ostensibly to collect the blade he mentioned.

As I stood in the hall thinking what to do next, I heard a noise, and realized Julian was stirring. As I went to his doorway, one guard moved to stop me but the other waved him away, saying Benedict had cleared me.

“But no one else”, I heard him warn, as I entered Julian’s room.

Julian was conscious, and aware of his injuries. Every other word seemed an oath as he took stock of his condition. He attempted to get out of bed, then quickly thought better of that idea. As he settled back into bed, Julian noticed me for the first time.

“Here to gloat?” he inquired.

“Not at all”, I assured him. “I’m glad you’re going to be OK.”

Julian groaned.

“After I can move without searing pain, I might come to share that opinion”, he muttered. “For now I count myself glad to have survived the experience.”

“What can you tell me?”, I asked, deciding not to mention my own attack.

Julian opened his mouth, then closed it.

“I am not sure I am ready to discuss that”, he said.

“Even with lives at risk?” I countered.

“Even so”, said Julian. He held my gaze for a few moments, then closed his eyes and sighed.

“Look, Corwin”, said Julian, “I can’t say I like you, and I have reason to be wary of who may be behind all this.

“I am especially vulnerable just now, even with Benedict’s protection.”

“What if I can help?” I asked.

“You don’t know what you are saying”, retorted Julian. “I can hold my own against any man, I warrant, but if you had faced what I had to face, you would better understand what you are against.”

“But he has” broke in Benedict, who had returned to the room. “This is one reason I trust him in this.”

“I see no injuries on Corwin” responded Julian. “Convenient, don’t you think, that our brother here could escape unscathed, the spirits which have killed many and almost killed me.”

“Fiona supports Corwin”, answered Benedict.

Julian stared at Benedict, then shook his head.

“No offense, Benedict, but it would mean more to me to hear that from Fiona herself.”

“She is not here”, answered Benedict, “but she left a note for Corwin, and I have read it. Fiona trusts Corwin.”

Julian barked a short, harsh laugh.

“Fiona trusts no one, brother – surely you know that by now.”

“In this”, returned Benedict, “she does.”

Julian said nothing for a few moments, and Benedict and I stood by as well rather than break into his thoughts. Julian stared holes into me with his cold, blue eyes, but I held my silence, as did Benedict.

“One thing,” said Julian, when he was ready to speak again, “I have to know, is just how Corwin faced these ghosts and is no worse for the encounter, yet the ghosts remain.”

“The same reason,” broke in Benedict before I could answer, “that I faced them myself early on, yet could not resolve the matter then.

“These are not honorable enemies, to take risk along with opportunity, but more on the level of jackals, striking when they have the chance, but fleeing if the moment turns against them.”

Julian peered at Benedict with renewed suspicion.

“I heard that this happened,” he said, “but disbelieved it because I know you are more efficient, than to leave an enemy standing after the fight.”

Benedict shrugged.

“You have seen how they move, how they attack,” he reminded Julian. “If we knew their lair, I would attack right now.

“But we lack enough information, partly -” Benedict stopped and looked at me pointedly before turning back to Julian – “partly because we have not been open enough with each other about what we have encountered.”

Julian looked uncomfortable, Benedict looked concerned, and I tried my best to hide my confusion. All three of us had been attacked, but I could not imagine what I knew that I had not told to Benedict. That implied that Benedict believed that I and Julian knew something about the matter that we had kept private, and that he had withheld that same information from the family but believed Julian and I were in on his secret.

Julian stared hard at Benedict.

“Are you saying that we should tell the rest of the family that Osric and Finndo have come back to haunt us?” demanded Julian.

Oh, my. Julian’s question threw a switch in my mind and turned on a light. One of my attackers had looked like family, and now I thought on it could well have been the form of the late Osric. Come to that, Finndo was fond of using a crossbow, and the shot taken at me in our brief contest had sounded like a bolt hitting the wall.

Benedict looked uneasily at the door.

“If they have, then they are truly ghosts,” he said. “I saw them die, many years ago.”

Benedict seemed about to say more, but stopped himself. Julian and I looked at each other, then Julian said to Benedict, “If we are to be open, I should hope you would also choose to share what you know, brother.”

Benedict sighed.

“It’s not really relevant, and I have never shared what happened in that war.”

He turned away from us, as if to leave, but stopped, still facing away.

“If I come to believe that the way Osric and Finndo died is important to resolving this situation, then I will tell you directly.

“For now, I can only ask you to trust my judgment, that their appearance means something else.”

Again Julian and I looked at each other. Neither of us was happy about it, but Benedict, aside from Gerard, was the most trustworthy of us, and in any case neither Julian nor I could do much to compel Benedict to share his secrets. Damning, though, that we were once again at an impasse.

[ to be continued ]

A Thief In Amber – Fourth Draft (Still Very Very Rough)

Some people are hard to kill. I don’t mean the moral decision to kill, but the difficulty in getting someone to die, who is stubbornly opposed to the idea. Some people are hard to kill because they are physically tough, some have one of those spirits that refuses to quit, and some are just plain durable.

And some spirits exist for the fight.

It was in the early days, before all the betrayals and family intrigues … OK, we always had those going on, but this was back in the days when we still imagined that we played by the rules. You couldn’t attempt to murder a sibling then, without at least feigning innocence, and alliance with genocidal maniacs was only allowed if the said monsters were friends of Oberon.

So, when word got out that someone or something was making its way through the halls of Castle Amber at night, killing members of the staff and generally hurting the castle’s reputation for fine dining and keeping folks safe from threats to their safety, the family decided it was time to take matters in hand. And, being expected to take the lead, I did so.

Oberon, as he commonly did, was traveling and away from Amber. Caine and Gerard were at sea and therefore also unavailable. Dierdre and Llewellen on a diplomatic mission for the Golden Circle, Brand, Random and Eric were out of the city for reasons not known to anyone else in the family, or if known not shared with me. That, of course, was also a reason for me to take charge; it would gall Eric no end if I could resolve things before he even heard about them … and give me no end of amusement if I could find a way to suggest he was somehow responsible for the problem. I was in those years when I was trying to show up everyone else, and convinced I looked good doing it. So it was that four princes and two princesses gathered for dinner, as we often did when we wanted to discuss issues of importance, and to imagine ourselves civilized.

The food was fine. The conversation, however, was wholly unsatisfying. It soon became apparent that none of us knew what was really going on, had any idea who or what was behind the attacks, and no one wanted to appear as helpless as we all felt.

After dinner, we all went to the library for drinks, and a second try at strategy. That fell apart as soon we chose our drinks. I watched as we chose different drinks, then different seats. Hell, we weren’t even looking at each other. I tried logic, first sitting with Benedict, who usually presented the best plan for dealing with any threat to Amber, but Benedict was even less talkative than usual. I followed with Julian, who was still angry with me for a prior disagreement, and he refused to even acknowledge my presence.

And so it went until I came to Fiona.

I knew something was about, when she smiled at my approach. Fiona and I never shared amusements or ideals, so a smile from her could only come at my cost. It also struck as strange that she seemed to be enjoying the present crisis. Was she its instigator, or if not, what was the source of her pleasure in this moment? I chose a drink, a seat, and a gambit.

“Hello Fiona”, I said. “You couldn’t just kill your enemies in a duel, like anyone else in the family?”

Fiona glared at me for a moment, then that smile returned as she realized – all too quickly – that I was just trying to draw her out.

“You play at things you do not understand, Corwin”, she answered. “As usual.

“I have no interest in your word games, and I must say I disapprove of your manners, and their lack.”

“I am not playing a game here” I protested, “but hunting the cause and source of our present threat. It is an elusive bird, truth, one which seems to be hidden by at least one of our princesses.”

Fiona smirked and replied, “Whereas wit is a bird that eludes the hand of rather too many princes.”

I shrugged. “Your disapproval concerns me even less than usual, Fi. All things considered.”

She tossed her head, red hair like a fall of flame. “Yet, perhaps it should. All things considered.”

I did things with my own eyebrows, emptied my glass, swung my boots down from the table, and headed for the door.

She chuckled, behind me.

I stopped, refrained from turning, and waited. Fiona could never resist showing the rest of us that she was a step ahead. Or pretending to be.

“You are wearing your blade,” she said. “Good.”

I went out, uttering no clever comments. With at least three murderous ghosts stalking Castle Amber, the time for such things was past.’

Hours passed, as I waited with blade drawn and senses wary, sitting in the hallway outside a row of rooms where I thought an appearance most likely by one or more of our homicidal specters.

I guessed wrong. The most dangerous thing to pass my way that night was an odor wafting from Julian’s room. I could pretend it was some feral scent from our nocturnal attackers, but I am sure it was simply the unwashed aroma of a pair of his dogs. In any case, I saw no spirits floating about, encountered no need to use my weapon, and generally felt like I was wasting my time.

Until I heard Flora scream. Down another hall, and far from my chosen station. Naturally. Or un-naturally. Whatever.

I felt damn foolish as I ran towards Flora’s room, hoping my missed guess would not be a costly mistake.

Fortunately, the volume of Flora’s shouts was not matched by actual peril. That is, Flora was not a passive screamer; when assailed by spirits coming at her, as she claimed, from within the walls, she not only cried for help but began throwing things at her attackers. It was hard to tell if any of them was some effective weapon, or the sheer volume of makeup, jewelry, hair care items and mirrors had thwarted their aggression. For all I knew, Flora had surprised them as much as they surprised her. There was no way to be sure. For the moment, we all relaxed in the discovery that our disembodied attackers seemed able to make mistakes, and we felt more confident that we ourselves were perhaps immune to their threat.

Then Bleys found Julian, more than half-dead in his quarters. Julian did not appear for breakfast, and Bleys was the first to check his rooms. I began to wonder why I had not heard anything from my vigilant post, and why Julian’s dogs had done nothing to defend him.

Also, for some reason Julian had not worn his armor the previous night. That cost him. He had been attacked from behind, as was evident by the burn marks on his back. He had fought off his attackers, but his arms, back, and legs were badly burned. I wished I could ask Julian what he had seen, and how he had fought off his assailants, but he was in a coma from his injuries, or the same thing for practical purposes. Benedict saw to his wounds and set a guard to door, with instructions to call him the instant Julian awoke – or anything appeared that might be the spirit murderers coming to finish the job.

I was not friendly with Julian, but an attack on family trumped personal arguments. Besides, just as I stood to gain from Eric’s humiliation if I could solve a mystery he was not around to handle, so too I would suffer my own humiliation if I could not resolve the problem right in front of me – and if a brother prince died on my watch, especially one I was not close to, I could count on Eric making me pay for it. And Father had made it clear that he counted fratricide as unforgivable. Failing to protect a brother was guilt by omission, and I knew that no defense I could present would clear me unless Julian lived. And I resolved the mystery and destroyed the threat.

I spoke to Benedict again, and – while cryptic – his comments included suggestions on where I might try my next vigil, and when I might expect to meet my foes.

It was very late, or rather early, before one of the walls opened in a place where it should not have done, and something that was both silver and shadow joined me.

Grayswandir felt good in my hand as I put down what I was finished drinking anyway, and waited.

Patience, they say, is a chiefly a virtue for statues, but I’d made more than my share of mistakes, thus far, and blood is hell to get out of good rugs.

Came a whisper, out of darkness. “Corwin, is it time?”

A fight for my life, I expected. Temporal confusion from the spooks, I have to admit, I did not see coming.

“No, go back to sleep”, I tried. OK, not a brilliant strategy, but I was tired and didn’t expect the question anyway.

There was a moment of silence, then the forms began to take shape. I expected something, I don’t know, human-like and perhaps demonic. These were, after all, undead spirits seeking to kill the living. Nor was I wrong.

Not exactly.

The attackers swirled into the room like sentient fog, and quickly surrounded me. I suddenly realized something was behind me, taking more substantial shape, and – I felt dread rush up my spine – preparing to strike me the same it had attacked Julian.

Something like lightning flashed, and surprised me. Mostly because the lightning came from inside the room … from Grayswandir.

I jumped to my feet, swinging up Grayswandir with one arm as I threw the book behind me into the – face? – of my posterior assailant. I heard the book smack into something, which swore as if hurt, and I pivoted, putting my back against the wall while swinging my sword into a guard position. Then I stopped.

That was a mistake.

The spirits, once the sword, stopped moving, resumed their attack, and I felt a crackle of something hot shoot past my head, striking the wall hard as if a crossbow bolt. Something else, like a burning lasso, wrapped my boots and tried to trip me. I hopped reflexively, brought my sword up again and swung it about me as if trying to burn cobwebs with a torch.

And shadows fled before me, and I was alone.

My book was on the floor, blackened. Damn. I watched lightning flicker and wondered if I would ever know what I fought, or why. Family politics seemed as tiresome as ever.

Three ghosts, Benedict had said, and had been on the brink of saying more ere his face had smoothed and he’d turned away.

Which meant he’d recognized the one he’d seen.

So had the lamplighter, before the ghost that slew him caught up with him and burned his skull bare, from within.

Coln had died, before that, and one of the cooks. Seven maids, or more by now, since.

Then they started on us. Flora had almost fallen to one, and then Julian. Almost.

We’re tough meat, we of Amber.’

Speaking of meat, I found myself famished. Deciding between preparing for a second round with the spooks, alerting the rest of the family to my attack, and getting an early breakfast, the stomach spoke with the greatest authority. Besides, I was somehow sure the attack for the night was done, and I needed to think through what had just happened before I spoke to anyone else. If one of us was behind the attacks, I had no intention of giving out thoughts on how to make sure I was properly killed next time.

I made my way to the kitchen and found it empty, as I hoped it would be. A half-dozen eggs, some cheese, ham and the appropriate spices produced a passable omelet, which I ate with coffee I made while I thought over the attack. I’m a good enough cook, but the quality of thoughts I considered diminished my appetite a bit.

I realized that I had to share my encounter, with at least one person. The attacks on Flora, then Julian so close afterwards showed that anyone could be next, and I had to help protect the innocent. If only I could be sure none among us was the guilty …

I decided on Benedict. He had shared the plan to catch out the spirits, so I already owed him a report on the attack for that reason. Also, he was the least likely to try a sneak attack on any of us – and if he had, his victims would not have survived. No, this was not Benedict’s trick, whatever it was.

I found him sitting with Julian. Julian remained still and lifeless, to all appearances. Enough to make his usual loquacity and stiff behavior seem positive ebullient. Benedict was not much more enthusiastic. I think I knew why. Julian was not so strong as some of us, but a prince of Amber should not be laid low so easily by anything. He seemed not to be resting, so much as lying helpless. That could be any one of us, even Benedict, and I could see that in Benedict’s thin, grim face.

“No change, Corwin”, said Benedict, as I entered the bedroom.

“So I see”, I answered. “But I have news for you.”

I handed Benedict the scorched book from my encounter as he rose from his seat. He looked at it, then met my eyes with his own.

“You encountered them, then?” he asked.

I nodded.

“Yes, but unlike you, I did not recognize any of them” I said, watching for a reaction to my observation. But Benedict remained solemn and still, as was his usual mood, even in happier times.

I waited for him to speak, but Benedict simply held my gaze, and after a moment. I continued.

“Yes, I was attacked”, I said. “Where you said they would likely be, and only an hour or so after the time you predicted. Which makes me curious, of course, how you knew …?”

I somehow expected Benedict to smile at being prescient, but he remained solemn. I also expected him to provide more helpful information, but I was wrong on that count as well.

“What do you know about this, Corwin?” asked Benedict, his left hand casually resting on the hilt of a dagger he had on his belt. There was no menace in his tone, but Benedict was clear in his meaning.

“Of the attacks? Nothing to speak of, Benedict.” I replied. “I told you my thoughts the last time we spoke, and I am trying to free us from who or whatever is attacking us.”

“Convenient, though”, remarked Benedict, “that you were the closest to Julian of us all, and yet you saw and heard nothing when he was attacked.”

“I know”, I protested, “and you know I would have arranged an alibi if I were going to attack Julian. Like, say, being away from Amber during the attacks?”

Benedict shook his head in irritation.

“Don’t start that stupid game again, of plots and intrigue, Corwin.”

“I won’t”, I replied, “as long as you agree to stop accusing me of being behind the attacks I’m trying to stop.”

Benedict sighed.

“All right”, he agreed. “But you were attacked, yourself, yet you have not yet told me about it.”

So I did. Including my reluctance to trust the full story to anyone in our family who might be the plotter behind the ghosts.

Benedict sighed again.

“I hate to agree with you on this, Corwin” he said, “but I sense that these attacks are part of something larger.

“And until we find a way to stop it, our danger will only grow.”

“So how do you think you escaped –” Benedict stopped and glanced down at Julian’s unmoving figure.

“Grayswandir” I said simply. “They’re afraid of it, for some reason.”

I remembered something just then.

“And I think Fiona knows they are afraid of it.” I continued. “The evening before Flora and Julian were attacked, she commented on my blade.”

Benedict grimly nodded.
“Go speak to Fiona” he said. We rose together, and he stopped for a moment in thought.

“Be direct,” he advised, “She will think she’s ahead of us, and she might be, but she might lose some of her nerve if you give her reason to think she could have missed something important.

“Good luck, Corwin” said Benedict. “Call me on my trump if you need me, but no matter what, be careful.

“Your blade may help protect you from these ghosts, but you still have to find the hand behind the spirit.” With that, Benedict turned his attention back to Julian.

But Fiona had anticipated more than my fight with the ghosts. Her room was empty, but she left a note in a sealed envelope addressed to me.

Of course, being Fiona, she had put a spell on the envelope which prevented anyone from opening it without saying the right phrase. I tried the normal and predictable phrases I knew she had used in the past to goad brothers and sisters, and since it was addressed to me I included ones she had taunted me with, like ‘Fiona is wise, Corwin tells lies’, that kind of thing. A tired and juvenile game, but Fiona liked to play that kind of thing often.

But this time there were no such games. Fiona had laughed the last time we spoke, but it seemed her mood had changed by the time she wrote her note. I called up Benedict on his trump and explained the situation. He had no advice except to tell me to keep trying.

I kept at it for more than an hour, then threw down the envelope muttering, “I give up”.

The seal appeared and broke on the envelope. I seized it and pulled out the note.

‘Corwin, hello’ began the note. ‘That you are reading this proves either that I am a great fool and feared for no good cause, or that you are as strong as I believed … or as lucky.

‘I have left the Eternal City for the present, because the forces you fight are as unpredictable as they are strong. I know them well enough to give you information, and well enough to flee them while they present a threat to us all. My craft and skills are useless as weapons against them. You, however, have the means to resolve the matter, and sufficient luck that I trust you will survive. I have bet much on your success.’

I smiled grimly at Fiona’s confidence in betting my life on the matter.

‘Trust your sword but not your brothers’, the note continued, and I chuckled at Fiona repeating such a well-known maxim among us, ‘except one whose sword suits the need even better than your own. Ask him nicely …’

I stopped and pondered for a moment who the hell Fiona could mean, then went back to the last part of the note.
‘… and strike you both one step to the LEFT of where you normally aim. Strike twice, but not at yourself.

‘Good luck, Corwin.’

If I did not know her better, that last line would have made me wonder at Fiona’s state of mind. I handed the note to Benedict, rather than have to read those instructions out loud.

Benedict read the note twice, or else slowly, then looked me in the eye.

“She wrote this for you, Corwin. Any idea how she knew you’d be the one to find it?”

“None.” I replied. “Anymore than how she knew you’d be here.”

“She wrote nothing of me” protested Benedict.

“I think she did” I said. “That line about a sword better-suited than my own. With Eric and Brand not here, she has to have meant you.”

Benedict paused in thought for a moment, then nodded sharply.

“Actually, Corwin, she might know my weapons better than I do – at least one of them. I know of a blade which might help here, but I am surprised that Fiona would know of it.”

“She seems to know a lot more than she is revealing”, I commented . “Is that blade of your accessible?”

“Oddly, yes” said Benedict. “Fiona asked about it just last week, when all of this was still largely unknown for the threat it has become.

“It makes me wonder how she considered the threat,” he pondered. “As much as I hate to cast suspicion, Corwin, this point concerns me.”

“I also wonder”, I agreed, careful not to go further with my thoughts. I could not help but wonder, though, if my sister had not started something she found she could not control.

Benedict stopped to Julian’s door, said a few words and handed something small to the guards he had posted. Then he strode away, ostensibly to collect the blade he mentioned.

As I stood in the hall thinking what to do next, I heard a noise, and realized Julian was stirring. As I went to his doorway, one guard moved to stop me but the other waved him away, saying Benedict had cleared me.

“But no one else”, I heard him warn, as I entered Julian’s room.

Julian was conscious, and aware of his injuries. Every other word seemed an oath as he took stock of his condition. He attempted to get out of bed, then quickly thought better of that idea. As he settled back into bed, Julian noticed me for the first time.

“Here to gloat?” he inquired.

“Not at all”, I assured him. “I’m glad you’re going to be OK.”

Julian groaned.

“After I can move without searing pain, I might come to share that opinion”, he muttered. “for now I count myself glad to have survived the experience.”

“What can you tell me?”, I asked, deciding not to mention my own attack.

Julian opened his mouth, then closed it.

“I am not sure I am ready to discuss that”, he said.

“Even with lives at risk?” I countered.

“Even so”, said Julian. He held my gaze for a few moments, then closed his eyes and sighed.

“Look, Corwin”, said Julian, “I can’t say I like you, and I have reason to be wary of who may be behind all this.

“I am especially vulnerable just now, even with Benedict’s protection.”

“What if I can help?” I asked.

“You don’t know what you are saying”, retorted Julian. “I can hold my own against any man, I warrant, but if you had faced what I had to face, you would better understand what you are against.”

“But he has” broke in Benedict, who had returned to the room. “This is one reason I trust him in this.”

“I see no injuries on Corwin” responded Julian. “Convenient, don’t you think, that our brother here could escape unscathed, the spirits which have killed many and almost killed me.”

“Fiona supports Corwin”, answered Benedict.

Julian stared at Benedict, then shook his head.

“No offense, Benedict, but it would mean more to me to hear that from Fiona herself.”

“She is not here”, answered Benedict, “but she left a note for Corwin, and I have read it. Fiona trusts Corwin.”

Julian barked a short, harsh laugh.

“Fiona trusts no one, brother – surely you know that by now.”

“In this”, returned Benedict, “she does.”

[ to be continued ]