On Message

Some years back, in the alternate universe I knew as a high school sports official, there was a football game with special significance in the District race and Playoff possibilities. As the Back Judge on my crew, one of my duties was to let the head coaches know when it was time to come out for the coin toss. The Linebacker chosen to represent his team as Captain for the coin toss was charged up for the game, enough so that as the team came down the ramp to the field, the head coach was warning him (apparently not for the first time) to not let his emotions get out of hand, to remember how important it was to stay in control.

The two teams walked out onto the field, and the officials led the Captains to the 50-yard line for the toss. As the two Captains shook hands, the linebacker I had seen being cautioned by his coach grasped his opponent's hand firmly, looked him straight in the eye, and in a voice loud enough to be heard at the sidelines, informed him "gonna f--- you up" .

fwip! went the Crew Chief's flag, and out of the corner of my eye I saw the coach drop his jaw and his clipboard. His team got a 15-yard Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty before even the first kickoff, and they simply never recovered from that.

I mention this, not only because it was one of those interesting things I got to experience as a ref, but also because I sense the same sort of blunder by the Democrats. To be it bluntly, they had a really good chance to win the White House, but started off with the wrong message.

The Democrats had an impressive set of advantages and clever tactics for this campaign: The press was distinctly on the side of the Left, to such degree that Dan Rather kept trying to use forged documents to smear the President, even weeks after admitting they were as phony as his claim to objectivity. Michael Moore had managed to sell a slanderous pack of lies to the world as a "documentary", in defiance of all decency and most Federal Election law. George Soros, not even an American citizen, had personally poured anywhere from 30 to 40 million dollars into a boorish attempt to buy the election. Hollywood, never representative of America, did its best to lie about the President's work and personal character to sway the gullible. Several Democrat-supporting groups compared Bush to Hitler and the GOP to Nazis, even as they physically assaulted GOP volunteers, slashing tires of vans to prevent Republicans from voting, and in three documented cases, fired guns into or at Bush campaign offices (Nazis are as Nazis do, you thugs), as well as numerous vandal attacks and break-ins of GOP offices (If it was wrong for Nixon's thugs to do it, why is it OK for Democrats to do it?). And the Democrats had managed to evade any serious discussion of Kerry's qualifications, working hard to make the election solely an attack on the President. Kerry's questionable claim to his medals was ignored, and when decorated veterans brought up the question, Kerry's attack dogs shouted them down and claimed that while it was critical for the President to answer rumors and unsupported allegations about his service in the National Guard, it was unacceptable for hundreds of war veterans to challenge Kerry's fairy-tale accounts. Kerry's treason, by meeting with Viet Cong leaders in Paris while the United States was still at war in Vietnam and Kerry remained a Naval Reserve Officer, was hushed up. Kerry's membership in a group which advocated assassination of U.S. Congressmen was side-stepped. Kerry second-guessed every decision Bush made about the Iraq War, including the ones Kerry supported when Bush made those decisions. And Kerry continued to press the lie about the "bad" economy, long after its recovery was obvious to everyone not a Liberal lawyer with a huge political ego to feed.

With all these advantages, assisted by Bush's clumsy public speaking and difficulty explaining complex decisions in a 90-second or 2-minute span, Kerry edged to a lead, especially in the Midwest, where it became obvious the election would be decided. Yet Kerry lost. How did this happen?

There are 4 major parts to the election chemistry; Money, Image, the Official Message and the Unofficial Message. Somehow Kerry forgot that the message is delivered on more than one level. Bush was careful to decry the 527's, knowing many Americans disliked the ads. He remained aware, of course, that he could not rein in the Swift Boat Vets, as they were a private group with1st Amendment rights, just as MoveOn.org was. But Bush, who probably didn't like the negative attacks on Kerry (though he did attack his record, which is not a negative tactic at all, by the way), was careful to make sure the American voter knew that the unofficial message attacking Kerry was not coming from him. Kerry, on the other hand, used profanity in describing the President early on, he specifically called Bush's supporters the "biggest bunch of crooks" - Kerry essentially echoed a lot of the cheap shots, and he never bothered to step away from the hate. That tied Kerry to personal attacks and no-class sniping, and it hurt him when it counted.

Bill Cinton defeated a popular President Bush in 1992, using the Economy issue effectively, but never suggesting publicly that he had anything but great respect for the President. That took the edge off some GOP attacks on Clinton, because clinton looked better than the image they were projecting. In Kerry's case, instead of proving his detractors wrong, over and over again he proved them right. He tripped over a Secret Service man, then blamed the other guy. He went to a Wendy's while his real gourmet meal was being prepared on a bus, and blew that photo op by insulting a group of Marines there because they supported the President. He tried to sell exclusive resorts and expensive sports as evidence he was a regular-guy, and he reminded every living person on the planet about his Vietnam experience, long after it had lost any virtue in supporting his claim to a responsible character.

To be sure, there are honorable aspects to John Kerry. He did serve in Vietnam, and he did see combat, whatever else is said about him. He is very supportive of his wife Tereza, and clearly loves his daughters very much. His long tenure as a Senator shows that the people of Massachusetts have repeatedly found him worthy of their trust. But the message John Kerry sent to America, more than anything else, was that he was not qualified to be President. Like that football Captain at the start of this article, John Kerry was chosen to lead his team, but before the contest even began, he set a tone for sure defeat.

Four years from now, there will be another run for the White House. I hope when that time comes again, the Democrats will think longer and harder about the they want to send to America. Defeatism and cheap shots at the Right (supported by 59 million voters this last time) is just going to hurt them before they even get started.

THANK YOU

Want to feel 'elite'? Well , if you're reading this, you are!

I noticed my sitemeter is way down from its normal pace. Small wonder really, since a lot of people were coming by to check on the Reader's Presidential Poll, and my work on the polls leading up to the election. Now that the election is over, small guys like me are, well, smaller. Just sixty people have come by today. Six-oh.

I admit, I was a little depressed when I first saw the numbers. After all, I blog because I want to share my thoughts. But after some thought, I realized that in a way, this site is becoming like an exclusive locale, known only to the truly adventerous and discerning. The people who come here now are the ones who understand the issues better, and who share a common appetite for exchanging ideas and learning. At least, I hope that's the case. I will continue to post on politics, but also on other moral and life issues. Don't forget the comments sections will still be there, so if there is something you'd like to see or want me to cut out, please sound off.

But especially, thank you all for coming by and reading my articles. I really do appreciate it, and hope that I will be a worthy contributor to your reading pleasure.

DJ Drummond

Butterfly Vandalism and Political Myths

Some years back, I learned a bit about Chaos Theory. One favorite parable of its advocates, is the notion that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world can lead to torrential storms in another part of the world. The claim is specious, of course, for two major reasons: First, the planet we inhabit happens to be rather a bit tougher than the delicate balance so often claimed by mental nerfheads like Al Gore and similar Intelligentsia wannabes. Also, the chain of events cited in this type of scenario ignores the effect of other relevant factors. For instance, there are literally thousands of forest fires each year in the world, which are never fought by even a single fire fighter, but they die out because of factors like natural firebreaks, heavy rain, lack of fuel, and wind patterns. A great many logical-sounding explanations simply don't work in the real world. The most vicious butterfly in history remains a butterfly, and there are clear limits to what a butterfly may do, incidentally or deliberately.

When we apply this to Politics, we see the emergence of many patterns and phenomena, but for this article, I would submit that in general, we see three types of politicians: The Selfish, the Idealist, and the Leader. This is not to judge them overly kindly or harshly; each official faces a situation pretty much unique to its time and place. But there is a pattern of method I see in the way these officials address their responsibilities.

The Selfish politicians will meet their responsibilities more or less, but are known for doing things in whatever way gets them credit, and fits into their existing plans. The best recent example of such a politician is President Clinton, who was able to produce legislation, display canny tactics, and get his way even when he lacked a majority of support (note that in neither of his two election victories, did he match or exceed 50% of the vote). But Clinton accomplished no lasting work; as an example, look at his attempt to reform Healthcare. When Clinton's socialist approach failed in 1993, he simply discarded the effort and moved on to other things. In comparison, George W. Bush accomplished more in his first term for Healthcare reform, than Clinton managed in two. Other examples include President Coolidge and President Andrew Johnson.

The Idealist politicians have grand notions of what they hope to accomplish, but often fail to understand the pragmatic requirements, or the limits of what can be done. A recent example of that sort, is President G.H.W. Bush, who envisioned a Middle East at peace after the first Gulf War, but who failed to foresee the enmity of repressive states in the region, or the duplicity of his political opponents. Like Clinton, the first President Bush failed to establish any lasting results from his work. Other examples include President Wilson and President Carter.

The Leaders are politicians who set aside their personal preferences for the good of the nation, who choose a course because it is necessary, and who are willing to face personal loss in order to do what is right. It's no surprise to people who know me, that I consider President George W. Bush such a man, but to present a better example, I would submit Presidents Kennedy and Reagan. While some would suggest that the two men had little in common, I would say that in both cases, what the men wanted when they entered office had to be set aside in favor of what the country needed. Kennedy was a Democrat who cut taxes; Reagan was a Republican who made treaties with the Soviets. Kennedy was willing to risk his political future to face down Khruschev; Reagan was willing to risk his political future to face down Andropov and Chernenko.

The lesson for today? George W. Bush and John F. Kerry are two completely different kinds of politicians. I warrant that Americans recognized the difference, and chose accordingly.

Victory!

OK, assuming John Kerry doesn’t change his mind again, it’s over, and the forces of Light and Goodness have won. And that means I can start thinking about praising the people who called the Scoreboard correctly first.

I took the Popular Vote numbers from CNN, as well as the EV tally (presuming Bush takes Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico, since he is leading all three states), and here’s the tentative numbers:

President Bush ======== 58,489,865 ==== 51.4% ====== 286 EV
Senator Kerry========= 54,970,878 ==== 48.3% ====== 252 EV
Ralph Nader============ 391,533 ===== 00.3%

Looking at these numbers, I can begin to comment on the people who nailed either the Popular Vote or the Electoral Vote. I will post another version Friday, either correcting the numbers if they change, or confirming these winners.

No one got it exactly right, but three people got Bush’s PV mark exactly right. And one pundit was less than half-point off.

Bruce Campbell, who posted on October 27 at 3:02 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 47.7%, which was off by an aggregate 0.6 points. Bruce got Bush’s number exactly right, and closer than the other two posters who got it exactly right. If the PV stands up, Bruce is our winner!

Bill, who posted on October 13 at 4:06 PM, predicted Bush 51.5%, Kerry 48.5%, which was off by only 0.3 aggregate points. Well done!

dukeblondie, who posted on October 12 at 2:51 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.6%, off by an aggregate 1.7 points.

And IJB, who posted on October 14 at 9:23 PM, predicted Bush 51.4%, Kerry 46.3%, off by an aggregate 2.0 points.

Also worth noting, are the people who got the EV pick exactly right:

Anthony Roberts posted at 8:46 PM on October 30, picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-48.5 PV prediction was only 0.6 aggregate points off!

soccer4ever posted at 12:38 PM on October 25, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 51-47 PV prediction was 1.7 aggregate points off.

Duncan Currie posted at 11:30 AM on October 29, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 52-47 PV prediction was 1.9 aggregate points off.

Finally, Carl Richardson posted at 1:50 AM on October 31, also picking 286-252 for the EV mark. The 50.1-49.3 PV prediction was 2.3 aggregate points off.

Congratulations to our winners! The entire Scoreboard is still up, if you want to check the whole list.

The Scoreboard

ELECTION DAY!!! FINAL UPDATE WAS AT 11:00 AM MONDAY

CHANGES LOCKED OUT AS OF FRIDAY, FINAL PREDICTIONS NOW CLOSED

This board started three weeks out; Close enough to the election, that a lot of people have their idea of who will win, and far enough out that the numbers may not be obvious. I have put up the predictions from everyone who wants to put it up in front of everyone. This board will be on top of this site every day through the election, with the nominations for specific Popular and Electoral Vote balances noted. The winner gets bragging rights (hey, I do this for free), which is a nice prize in the Blogosphere.

Predictions have been added to this board in the Comments section here or over on Polipundit on the "Scoreboard" thread. The predictions include the Popular Vote breakdown expected, the Electoral Vote if desired (also for tiebreakers), and include your email to validate. I will post all predictions, by PV and EV and date and post name.

NOTE: Gates will close for predictions on November 1st!

Through 11:00 AM, November 1:

[] Bush 67.5, Kerry 32 [EV unk] beavereater, 10.29.04, 6:19 PM
[] Bush 63, Kerry 34 [B519-019] Emile Zola, 1012.04, 4:12 PM
[] Bush 63, Kerry 35 [B320-218] Ron Steele, 10.28.04, 4:39 PM
[] Bush 61.5, Kerry 32.4 [B403-130] JTB in Texas, 10.29.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 61, Kerry 38 [EV unk] HL Shancken, 10.17.04, 3:39 PM
[] Bush 60, Kerry 38 [EV unk] Drew, 10.15.04, 12:39 PM
[] Bush 60, Kerry+Nader 40 [EV unk] G Galvan, 10.21.04, 2:46 PM
[] Bush 58.7, Kerry 41 [B395-143] Ovi, 10.12.04, 11:32 PM
[] Bush 58.6, Kerry 41.4 [B465-073] Robert Modean, 10.12.04, 3:16 PM
[] Bush 58.1, Kerry 43.8 [EV unk] Joe Schmoe, 10.28.04, 4:33 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 40 [EV unk] Paula, 10.23.04, 11:03 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 40 [EV unk] Todd, 10.27.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 58, Kerry 41 [B312-226] Gabe Gabaldon, 10.29.04, 11:40 PM
[] Bush 57.5, Kerry 40.5 [B395-143] pawnking, 10.29.04, 12:44 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 41 [B396-142] Kevin McClenathan, 10.17.04, 4:05 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 41 [EV unk] Larry Meiring, 10.23.04, 9:28 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B350-188] Randy Nelson, 10.18.04, 6:19 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B347-191] daniel a, 10.17.04, 6:01 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [B302-236] Robin Burk, 10.30.04, 6:43 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [EV unk ] Bill Roberts, 10.12.04, 2:11 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 42 [EV unk] Bill K, 10.12.04, 2:29 PM
[] Bush 57, Kerry 43 [B350-089] Carl, 10.26.04, 1:08 PM
[] Bush 56.6, Kerry 40.7 [B342-196] Spitfire, 10.30.04, 8:33 PM
[] Bush 56.5, Kerry 42 [B359-179] Michael Ihle, 10.13.04, 4:55 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 38 [EV unk], George, 10.23.04, 10:33 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 41 [B353-185] Gordy Hulten, 10.21.04, 4:50 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 42 [B350-188] medscribe, 10.12.04 2:10 PM (1st to cite EV picks)
[] Bush 56, Kerry 42 [EV unk] Another Thought, 10.27.04, 3:20 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B353-185] Judd Bandry, 10.12.04, 6:18 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B342-196] Recycler, 10.25.04, 12:19 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B335-203] Myron, 10.12.04, 3:15 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B335-103] max, 10.30.04, 8:30 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 43 [B291-248] Patrick, 10.26.04, 6:23 PM
[] Bush 56, Kerry 44 [B356-182] Alvar N.C.de Vaca, 10.14.04, 12:32 PM
[] Bush 55.9, Kerry 43 [EV unk] kcourt, 10.23.04, 10:24 PM
[] Bush 55.8, Kerry 42.4 [B318-220] Joe Cox, 10.12.04, 3:34 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 42.5 [B356-182] Jayson Javitz, 10.29.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 43 [B353-185] Lloyd, 10.15.04, 12:54 PM
[] Bush 55.5, Kerry 44 [EV unk], D.C. Weir, 10.29.04, 12:08 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 39 [B335-203] Geoff, 10.23.04, 9:25 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 42 [B377-161] Gary, 10.18.04, 7:26 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B440-098] Dennis, 10.18.04, 1:42 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B405-133] Brad Huston, 10.12.04, 2:31 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B404-134] TomS, 10.15.04, 12:14 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B395-143] DJ Drummond, 03.01.04
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B357-181] Iblis, 10.15.04, 7:18 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B350-188] Duano, 10.16.04, 9:06 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B320-218] retired military, 10.15.04, 11:45 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [B318-220] Darrell Harris, 10.18.04, 5:21 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [EV unk] GerryG, 10.18.04, 8:36 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 43 [EV unk] Duane Roelands, 10.26.04, 3:10 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B374-164] Cincinnatus, 10.30.04, 8:13 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B371-166] Michael, 10.15.04, 4:37 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B320-218] Schneide, 10.19.04, 6:13 AM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B310-228] Jason dru-net, 10.31.04, 2:59 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [B305-233] Solly, 10.23.04, 9:19 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Steve Larrimore, 10.14.04, 12:37 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [B388-150] Rutherford, 10.15.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [B312-226] Andreas, 10.17.04, 12:32 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 45 [EV unk] M Evans, 10.12.04, 4:31 PM
[] Bush 55, Kerry 48 [B298-220] Linda, 10.31.04, 12:02 AM
[] Bush 54.7, Kerry unk [B295-243] Joel Collinsworth, 10.15.04, 3:37 PM
[] Bush 54.6, Kerry 44.0 [B339-199] Kenneth Gankofskie, 10.24.04, 5:00 AM
[] Bush 54.6, Kerry 44.3 [B396-142] Joe Tetreault, 10.26.04, 2:21 PM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 43.5 [B352-186] Bradley Hampton, 10.31.04, 1:38 PM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 44.3 [EV unk] Chris Hopkins, 10.14.04, 9:57 AM
[] Bush 54.5, Kerry 44.5 [B393-144] Albert Jones, 10.28.04, 5:04 PM
[] Bush 54.4, Kerry 44.2 [B331-207] WyGuy, 10.18.04, 9:18 PM
[] Bush 54.4, Kerry 44.5 [B374-164] Twi, 10.29.04, 10:16 PM
[] Bush 54.3, Kerry 41.6 [B279-259] Michelle Z., 10.28.04, 4:38 PM
[] Bush 54.2, Kerry 43.9 [B341-198] Shmuel Melamed, 10.24.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 54.2, Kerry 44.8 [B300-238] Norman Conquest, 10.29.04, 1:46 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 43 [EV unk] jvr, 10.12.04, 2:59 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 43 [EV unk] howard the liberal, 10.18.04, 12:14 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B374-164] Blinkblogger, 10.17.04, 11:05 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B352-186] erkoch, 10.30.04, 11:57 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B335-203] pat, 10.24.04, 7:22 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B315-223] Mark L, 10.18.04, 9:56 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B312-226] ddoolin, 10.12.04, 5:11 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [K303-235] Robin, 10.29.04, 1:05 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [B300-238] Craddock, 10.15.04, 12:17 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] JB, 10.12.04, 4:18 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Gmac, 10.15.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Julie, 10.22.04, 5:20 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 44.5 [B320-218] Vic, 10.16.04, 9:28 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B374-164] bw, 10.30.04, 10:27 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B369-169] CoolPa, 10.19.04, 6:11 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B349-189] Stephen Nichols, 10.15.04, 7:45 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B345-193] Evinx, 10.12.04, 8:44 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B343-195] wendy forward’s mom, 10.12.04, 3:21 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B336-185] fritz, 10.12.04, 2:40 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B331-207] Lyon Jewett, 10.26.04, 1:16 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B320-218] Andy, 10.31.04, 6:55 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B315-224] Bill S, 10.27.04, 3:54 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B315-223] Tony in Maine, 10.29.04, 1:23 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B312-226] Wally Lind, 10.19.04, 6:49 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B311-227] Aaron, 10.28.04, 5:53 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B310-238] Behind Enemy Lines, 10.12.04, 2:56 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [B305-233] Adam Lawson, 10.12.04, 3:12 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Todd, 10.12.04, 3:39 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Diamond bar Mike, 10.12.04, 5:26 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] ty gregg, 10.15.04, 3:30 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 45 [EV unk] cincysux, 10.19.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 46 [B293-245] Jonathan V. Last, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 54, Kerry 46 [B291-247] James4, 10.26.04, 3:20 PM
[] Bush 53.8, Kerry 44.9 [B305-233] Greg H, 10.12.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 53.8, Kerry 45.1 [B349-189] Jeff Guentensberger, 10.26.04, 1:33 PM
[] Bush 53.7, Kerry 45.1 [B335-203] Stuart S., 10.24.04, 1:55 AM
[] Bush 53.6, Kerry 45.5 [B317-221] David H., 10.31.04, 12:20 AM
[] Bush 53.5, Kerry 45 [B312-226] PineapplePaul, 10.16.04, 9:44 PM
[] Bush 53.4, Kerry 43.2 [EV unk] A Alejandro, 10.18.04, 10:05 PM
[] Bush 53.3, Kerry 45.2 [B301-237] Steve, 10.15.04, 6:13 PM
[] Bush 53.2, Kerry 46.2 [B311-227] Brantley Smith, 10.12.04, 4:22 PM
[] Bush 53.1, Kerry 45.3 [B301-234] oblomov, 10.19.04, 5:40 PM
[] Bush 53.1, Kerry unk [B310-238] Jack, 10.16.04, 9:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 41 [EV unk] lykhach, 10.12.04, 3:01 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B310-228] Corie Schweitzer, 10.18.04, 5:29 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B291-247] Chemboss, 10.25.04, 12:50 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44 [B290-248] David, 10.31.04, 10:22 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 44.5 [B354-184] Michael Fabiano, 10.15.04, 1:49 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B371-167] Gary Matthew Miller, 10.12.04, 4:51 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B374-164] Charlotte, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B325-213] Pete Harrigan, 10.15.04, 5:45 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B311-227] Brandon, 10.24.04, 1:37 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B310-228] Gad, 10.18.04, 4:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B308-230] Kelli, 10.15.04, 7:46 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B306-232] Alexander, 10.15.04, 5:07 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B306-232] Peggy Oberg, 10.21.04, 3:45 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B284-254] MWB, 10.29.04, 10:10 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [B276-262] E Tennessee Republican, 10.27.04, 3:32 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Addison, 10.12.04, 2:28 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 45.4 [B320-218] Kevin Jackson, 10.12.04, 3:59 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B368-170] Mr. Right, 11.01.04, 1:30 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B343-195] Michelle, 10.12.04, 3:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B340-198] Brent T, 10.12.04, 2:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B334-204] Perry, 10.19.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B332-206] Anthony, 10.18.04, 8:18 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B332-206] cwenger, 10.22.04, 5:15 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B331-206] Sammy Boy, 10.12.04, 3:37 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B331-207] Tom Gordon, 10.18.04, 12:41 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B328-210] totally sirius, 10.12.04, 3:19 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B328-210] TN Conservative, 10.12.04, 3:28 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B321-214] GayPaytriot, 10.13.04, 12:13 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B321-217] Penny Silver, 10.15.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B317-221] AWW, 10.12.04, 2:34 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Dan, 10.12.04, 6:31 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B310-228] jpg, 10.12.04, 3:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B310-165] Jonathan Petramala, 10.31.04, 11:52 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B305-233] INC, 10.24.04, 2:39 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B303-235] Rusty, 10.15.04, 2:38 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B300-238] Southern Boy, 10.20.04, 10:30 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B297-241] kdeweb, 10.14.04, 1:43 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B297-232] Patrick Casey, 10.24.04, 11:37 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Positivethinking, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B295-243] Doud S, 10.31.04, 12:10 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B292-246] Dave Schmidt, 10.12.04, 4:05 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B291-247] bob friedman, 10.15.04, 12:00 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B291-247] Scott Rosenthal, 10.28.04, 7:12 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B290-248] Ellis Wyatt, 10.15.04, 1:35 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B290-248] mategethoff, 10.17.04, 5:08 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B289-249] Eric Lindholm, 10.15.04, 7:38 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [B274-264] Kent, 10.18.04, 11:55 AM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Midwest Kay, 10.12.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] blw321, 10.14.04, 1:22 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Joanne, 10.15.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 46 [EV unk] CT, 10.27.04, 3:43 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Susan, 10.12.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 53, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Cableguy, 10.12.04, 3:40 PM
[] Bush 52.95, Kerry 46.35 [B304-231] HHU TuttoMatto, 10.29.04, 6:46
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 45.3 [B333-205] Gary Smith, 10.18.04, 7:22 PM
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 45.7 [B296-242] GWB Senior, 10.29.04, 6:48 PM
[] Bush 52.9, Kerry 47.9 [B295-243] Mark Galliher, 10.12.04, 6:32 PM
[] Bush 52.8, Kerry 44.6 [B310-228] Neville Trinidade, 10.23.04, 10:04 PM
[] Bush 52.8, Kerry 45.6 [B314-224] David Harrill, 10.17.04, 12:26 PM
[] Bush 52.7, Kerry 45.3 [B331-207] Don D, 10.15.04, 1:02 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 45.7 [EV unk] LibraryLady, 10.15.04 6:29 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 45.8 [B356-182] Scott Elliott, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 46.3 [B306-232] Lawrence Person, 10.26.04, 1:22 PM
[] Bush 52.6, Kerry 47.1 [EV unk] Dan Frazier, 10.15.04, 1:44 PM
[] Bush 52.55, Kerry 44.95 [EV unk] HolyHumpa, 10.18.04, 4:01 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45 [B321-217] freddy caple, 10.17.04, 8:17 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45.3 [EV unk] Alan H., 10.15.04, 1:33 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 45.8 [EV unk] Rocketman, 10.12.04 5:44 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.3 [B317-221] farmGolfer, 10.30.04, 8:36 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.5 [B308-230] Jim Edholm, 10.12.04, 7:54 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 46.5 [EV unk] Cohiba, 10.23.04, 10:07 PM
[] Bush 52.5, Kerry 47.5 [B324-214] Ipse Dixit, 10.15.04, 11:26 PM
[] Bush 52.4, Kerry 46.2 [B310-229] EyesofTX, 10.29.04, 1:14 PM
[] Bush 52.4, Kerry 46.9 [B342-196] matt, 10.27.04, 11:58 AM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 46.6 [B373-162] S Santomauro, 10.12.04, 7:10 PM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 46.7 [B300-238] Richard, 10.25.04, 1:51 PM
[] Bush 52.3, Kerry 47.0 [B306-232] Go Dawgs, 10.25.04, 1:16 PM
[] Bush 52.2, Kerry 47.0 [B307-231] JeanneB, 10.26.04, 2:04 PM
[] Bush 52.2, Kerry 47.0 [B288-250] CGB54, 10.15.04, 10:00 PM
[] Bush 52.1, Kerry 46.0 [B360-178] AuH2Orepublican, 10.28.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 52.1, Kerry 46.8 [EV unk] nwoods, 10.28.04, 4:42 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [B320-218] John K., 10.12.04, 2:43 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [B300-238] Grumps, 10.12.04, 7:02 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] RAZ, 10.12.04, 3:25 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] jbas, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 45 [EV unk] Sau-Wing Lam, 10.15.04, 12:07 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B371-168] CA Conservative, 10.13.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B363-175] Blackjack, 10.28.04, 5:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B347-191] Mike in Ohio, 10.29.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B339-199] Lyford, 10.15.04, 1:50 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B338-200] Albert Hodges, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B327-211] Bill W., 10.12.04, 3:24 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B325-213] Spike, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B324-214] Terry Kelly, 10.12.04, 2:28 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B324-214] BillyW, 10.13.04, 5:59 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B323-215] Eric W, 10.15.04, 1:31 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B316-242] Gary Lewis, 10.18.04, 9:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Shawn M, 10.15.04, 6:52 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B311-227] Tstoelting, 10.18.04, 6:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B310-228] bdog57, 10.27.04, 3:29 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Noel, 10.31.04, 12:39 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B306-232] Joe, 10.18.04, 5:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Pericles, 10.12.04, 8:11 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B289-249] Brian Barker, 10.18.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [B280-258] Danny Tesvich, 10.27.04, 3:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] NYC Steve, 10.12.04, 1:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Jason, 10.12.04, 4:20 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Mark, 10.15.04, 1:00 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] thomas, 10.18.04, 11:50 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46 [EV unk] Bob Cmelak, 10.18.04, 2:46 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 46.5 [B316-222] pduffau, 10.28.04, 10:59 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B349-189] d sherwood, 10.30.04, 11:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B348-190] William Kristol, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B332-206] DarthKosh, 10.12.04, 7:04 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B331-207] Chris, 10.25.04, 1:46 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B326-212] UAW_republican, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B325-218] Ken, 10.14.04, 12:36 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B317-221] Section 9, 10.29.04, 1:32 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] JC, 10.24.04, 4:39 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Fred Barnes, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Athena, 10.28.04, 5:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B306-232] Jayson’s girl Kim, 10.30.04, 11:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B305-233] Ace, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B305-233] PJO, 10.12.04, 2:13 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Gactimus, 10.12.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Duncan, 10.12.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B299-239] ravi, 10.18.04, 12:49 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B297-241] Gordon Shumway, 10.16.04, 1:12 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] John Cox, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] SamuelV, 10.12.04, 2:12 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] awr000, 10.18.04, 12:23 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B296-242] reliapundit, 10.24.04, 10:35 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B295-243] Jean Dussault, 10.18.04, 5:58 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B295-242] Jeroboam, 10.29.04, 5:58 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B294-244] Pollmaniac, 10.12.04, 3:38 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Knighthawk, 10.12.04, 2:03 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B290-248] wendy forward, 10.12.04, 3:18 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B289-249] Mart Martin, 10.15.04, 12:57 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B289-249] M.E., 10.22.04, 5:37 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B286-252] Duncan Currie, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B285-249] Steve Plunk, 10.12.04, 3:28 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B284-249] Frank, 10.12.04, 2:54 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B284-254] Guido Sandulli, 10.12.04, 2:16 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B283-250] Jim Harvey, 10.12.04, 2:34 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [B270-268] Patrick, 10.27.04, 1:22 AM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] Mark, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 52, Kerry 47 [EV unk] Rick, 10.27.04, 8:55 AM
[] Bush 51.9, Kerry 47.1 [B284-254] gpapa, 10.17.04, 12:41 AM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 46.2 [B317-221] Eric Soderlund, 10.12.04, 3:01 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 46.3 [B355-183] Dave, 10.14.04, 4:03 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.1 [B311-227] Ross, 10.18.04, 12:35 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.2 [B296-242] PhillyScott, 10.30.04, 7:35 PM
[] Bush 51.8, Kerry 47.8 [B306-232] Todd Schmidt, 10.26.04, 1:56 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 46.5 [B323-215] BoomerBob, 10.15.04, 12:41 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 46.6 [B291-247] CJ, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Paul Deignan, 10.18.04, 9:16 PM
[] Bush 51.7, Kerry 47.1 [B292-246] Niccolo Machiavelli, 10.24.04, 5:53 AM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 46.8 [B306-232] Jim Durbin, 10.26.04, 1:09 PM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 47.2 [B306-232] Moqul, 10.17.04, 12:51 PM
[] Bush 51.6, Kerry 48.1 [B303-235] Oak Leaf, 10.30.04, 7:09 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 46.5 [B305-233] Nick in NY, 10.16.04, 4:32 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47 [B294-244] irish guard, 10.12.04, 3:13 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.2 [B291-247] John Adams, 10.27.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.3 [B297-241] dlacy, 10.15.04, 1:24 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B312-226] Morrie, 10.19.04, 8:49 AM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B310-220] Eye Doc, 10.15.04, 1:08 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B310-228] STLScott, 10.27.04, 3:30 PM
[] Bush 51.5, Kerry 47.5 [B276-262] ripley, 10.25.04, 4:15 PM
[] Bush 51.5. Kerry 48.5 [B296-242] Bill, 10.13.04, 4:06 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 46.3 [B322-216] IJB, 10.14.04, 9:23 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 46.6 [B344-194] dukeblondie, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 51.4, Kerry 47.7 [B321-217] Bruce Campbell, 10.27.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.3 [B305-233] Glacomo, 10.29.04, 4:46 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.4 [B322-216] ECS, 10.14.04, 1:56 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.5 [B314-224] Doug, 10.29.04, 8:33 PM
[] Bush 51.3, Kerry 47.8 [B301-237] MichaelK, 10.15.04, 4:49 PM
[] Bush 51.25, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] taino, 10.15.04, 12:57 PM
[] Bush 51.25, Kerry 47.75 [EV unk] Darwin Finch, 10.12.04, 2:41 PM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.3 [B311-227] Kip Miller, 10.24.04, 2:57 AM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.4 [B295-243] Jon, 10.28.04, 1:03 AM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 48.0 [B279-259] Charles Fulner, 10.12.04 3:31 PM
[] Bush 51.2, Kerry 48.9 [B296-242] Finnman, 1028.04, 5:03 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 46.4 [B298-240] Joe, 10.12.04, 3:27 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Sean, 10.27.04, 2:50 PM
[] Bush 51.1, Kerry 47.1 [B306-232] Barry Johnson, 10.15.04, 1:34 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 45 [B299-239] MEC2, 10.15.04, 5:45 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B334-208] MikeKS, 10.13.04, 3:56 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Modad, 10.30.04, 11:50 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B307-231] Evan3457, 10.12.04, 4:35 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B307-231] Martin Karo, 10.19.04, 4:30 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B306-232] Alanb, 10.13.04, 4:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B305-233] Jim, 10.27.04, 4:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B301-237] Violent Kitten, 10.12.04, 3:23 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B300-238] JPSchroer, 10.12.04, 2:40 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B297-241] WinstonPundit, 10.19.04, 5:54 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 46 [B296-242] Texas_Dawg, 10.15.04, 5:23 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B323-215] Gregg the Obscure, 10.17.04, 9:31 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B311-227] Jeff M, 10.12.04, 3:22 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B311-227] Kent Alcott, 10.15.04, 10:07 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B310-228] Ray, 10.25.04, 12:07 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B301-237] Brandon, 10.12.04, 10:37 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B300-238] J, 10.14.04, 11:12 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B298-240] Montyf13, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B297-241] Michael, 10.15.04, 9:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Dennis Strickland, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Smooth Jazz, 10.12.04, 2:35 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] tester, 10.24.04, 4:28 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B296-242] Armin Tamzarian, 10.28.04, 4:38 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B295-243] Mike Maurer, 10.12.04, 2:52 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B291-247] Lawson Lambert , 10.19.04, 2:46 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B286-252] soccer4ever, 10.25.04, 12:38 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B285-250] Mikey, 10.13.04, 5:29 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B282-256] gavin, 10.18.04, 5:19 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 47 [B276-262] Mark L., 10.27.04, 9:48 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B312-226] Rich F, 10.15.04, 1:13 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B306-232] Excelsior, 10.27.04, 11:19 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] Dominick S., 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B301-237] mike the analyst, 10.21.04, 11:27 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B298-240] Rachel DiCarlo, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B297-241] Michael Call, 10.15.04, 6:20 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] SGG, 10.12.04, 3:00 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] Paul, 10.24.04, 10:19 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B296-242] VACons, 10.26.04, 8:02 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B295-243] Van Pham, 10.12.04, 2:08 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B292-246] Larry, 10.15.04, 3:31 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B291-247] JB, 10.12.04, 3:05 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [B290-248] RoBear, 10.12.04, 3:18 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48 [EV unk] Jerryx, 10.31.04, 2:33 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B310-228] Dennis Logue, 10.27.04, 9:56 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B304-234] Dan Judd, 10.29.04, 2:48 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B286-252] Anthony Roberts, 10.30.04, 8:46 PM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 48.5 [B283-255] Trey Jackson, 10.28.04, 10:34 AM
[] Bush 51, Kerry 49 [B271-267] David Skinner, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50.9, Kerry 46.5 [B317-221] Tim McDonald, 10.17.04, 1:43 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.4 [B322-216] Marc, 10.12.04, 2:37 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.5 [B296-242] Thaddeus Billman, 10.31.04, 12:09 AM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 47.8 [B307-231] Ben Maller, 10.31.04, 12:18 AM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.2 [B301-237] Doc Steve, 10.23.04, 9:39 PM
[] Bush 50.8, Kerry 48.6 [B291-247] David M. McClory, 10.30.04, 11:29 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 47.2 [B291-247] Rick Hine, 10.12.04, 7:41 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.2 [B300-238] George Tobin, 10.27.04, 3:34 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3 [B276-249] William Winfield, 10.29.04, 1:51 PM
[] Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.5 [B292-246] Scott Carlson, 10.18.04, 5:12 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.5 [B374-164] Polish Immigrant, 10.30.04, 11:00 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.5 [EV unk] MD, 10.24.04, 8:32 AM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 47.8 [B296-242] basokla, 10.27.04, 4:06 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B304-238] T Brewer, 10.14.04, 3:53 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B302-236] Michael Fabiano, 10.14.04, 10:55 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48 [B300-238] Pete Gardiner, 10.31.04, 10:30 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48.5 [B284-254] Keith, 10.18.04, 12:02 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 48.5 [EV unk] badriverdave, 10.12.04, 3:08 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 49 [EV unk], Juristex, 10.18.04, 6:39 PM
[] Bush 50.5, Kerry 49.5 [B296-242] george purcell, 10.30.04, 11:46 PM
[] Bush 50.4, Kerry 47.3 [B296-242] Jeff, 10.24.04, 10:28 PM
[] Bush 50.4, Kerry 48.6 [B306-232] Will Franklin, 10.29.04, 2:13 PM
[] Bush 50.3, Kerry 48.8 [B273-265] William m Johnson, 10.24.04, 11:00 AM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 47.5 [B280-258] Leonard, 10.29.04, 8:49 AM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 48 [B279-259] Paul, 10.12.04, 10:58 PM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.6 [EV unk] Ace Perry, 10.18.04, 12:12 PM
[] Bush 50.2, Kerry 49.0 [K311-227] JosephA, 10.30.04, 8:04 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48 [B291-247] LogCabin, 10.12.04, 10:48 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.1 [EV unk] Joe Rambus, 10.14.04, 12:52 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.2 [B270-268] The Mose, 10.12.04, 2:29 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.5 [B285-254] Obsidian Order, 10.21.04, 8:08 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.1 [B276-262] John Kim, 10.28.04, 3:53 PM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.3 [B286-252] Carl Richardson, 10.31.04, 1:50 AM
[] Bush 50.1, Kerry 49.9 [B284-253] GOP Wins, 10.12.04, 2:14 PM
[] Bush 50.04, Kerry 47.92 [B284-254] Pat, 10.13.04, 12:04 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 44 [EV unk] Wes Wetherell, 10.18.04, 8:48 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 46 [B310-228] Pat Hajovsky, 10.12.04, 7:54 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 46 [B297-241] Howard, 10.27.04, 3:23 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 47 [B300-238] Nahanni, 10.15.04, 5:10 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B300-238] Ryan, 10.12.04, 2:53 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B291-247] Tom, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B291-247] VictoryArgus, 10.23.04, 9:19 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B287-251] Kevin Martin, 10.12.04, 3:04 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B284-254] Chris Atkins, 10.12.04, 2:17 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [B273-265] Mike Paranzino, 10.30.04, 11:42 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48 [EV unk] ras, 10.18.04, 12:26 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48.5 [B305-233] J Boz, 10.12.04, 9:05 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 48.5 [B303-235] Paul Bauer, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B297-241] Michael Goldfarb, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B296-242] John, 10.18.04, 8:24 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B296-242] Terry Eastland, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B284-254] Gerry Owen, 10.14.04, 4:28 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B284-254] Dutch Buckhead, 10.12.04, 3:36 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B281-257] Matthew Continetti, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B276-262] Chas, 10.12.04, 6:21 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [B271-267] Nathan Lim, 10.12.04, 2:49 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [EV unk] News guy, 10.14.04, 1:04 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Ebon, 10.30.04, 4:56 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 50 [B285-253] Jack, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 50, Kerry 50 [T269-269] Katherine Mangu-Ward, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 50 [EV unk] Arron Mathew Arnwine, 10.12.04, 2:10 PM
[] Bush 49.9, Kerry 48.1 [B295-243] C.H. Truth, 10.12.04, 3:02 PM
[] Bush 49.9, Kerry 49.1 [B283-255] Richard Starr, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 46 [B290-248] Jacob Swain, 10.28.04, 4:54 PM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 47.9 [B310-228] darkgenius, 10.28.04, 6:59 PM
[] Bush 49.8, Kerry 48.8 [B273-265] Ed Wagner, 10.24.04, 4:37 AM
[] Bush 49.7, Kerry 47.9 [B309-229] Nathan, 10.30.04, 7:12 PM
[] Bush 49.7, Kerry 47.9 [B296-242] RRSchwab, 10.15.04, 8:22 PM
[] Bush 49.6, Kerry 47.2 [B290-248] JL in Berkeley, 10.18.04, 10:56 PM
[] Bush 49.6, Kerry 48.2 [K279-259] David#1, 10.29.04, 7:52 AM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B310-228] Mike G, 10.30.04, 9:20 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B295-243] The Opinionator, 10.26.04, 1:09 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 48.5 [B270-267] John Berner, 10.22.04, 6:15 PM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 49 [B285-253] Ben Bauman. 10.17.04, 11:58 AM
[] Bush 49.5, Kerry 49 [B272-260] A Tom C, 10.29.04, 2:56 PM
[] Kerry 49.5, Bush 49.5 [EV unk] David S. Lott, 10.12.04, 3:55 PM
[] Bush 49.46, Kerry 49.27 [B276-262] Ed Mick, 10.29.04, 12:26 AM
[] Bush 49.4, Kerry 48.2 [K277-261] Ryan, 10.23.04, 11:55 PM
[] Bush 49.4, Kerry 49.1 [B284-254] excelsior, 10.14.04, 9:55 PM
[] Bush 49.2, Kerry 48.1 [EV unk] Brian, 10.27.04, 4:58 PM
[] Bush 49.2, Kerry 48.6 [B280-258] Rezuls, 10.24.04, 8:00 PM
[] Bush 49.1, Kerry 48.7 [B277-261] Patrick, 10.27.04, 4:40 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 44 [B304-234] Donovan, 10.26.04, 7:55 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 47 [B274-264] Will, 10.18.04, 1:39 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 48 [B280-258] Kenny, 10.12.04, 2:53 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 48.5 [B289-249] RM Stanley, 10.29.04, 1:02 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [B278-260] Adrian, 10.12.04, 2:51 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [T269-269] Tim Cameron, 10.13.04, 12:32 AM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Textbook Stupidity, 10.12.04, 3:21 PM
[] Bush 49, Kerry 49 [EV unk] Senator Spitball, 10.12.04, 3:34 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [B274-264] ubaldus, 10.14.04, 3:31 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [B271-267] Daisy, 10.18.04, 6:17 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [T269-269] Slickrock, 10.12.04, 2:21 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K276-262] Ben, 10.12.04, 3:17 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K295-243] Matt Labash, 10.29.04, 11:30 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 49 [K300-238] Karl Marx, 10.12.04 2:10 PM
[] Kerry 50.5, Bush 49 [K299-239] Eric, 10.12.04, 9:32 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 49 [K289-249] Harold Showalter, 10.20.04, 1:47 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 49 [K306-232] mac, 10.18.04, 8:27 PM
[] Bush 48.8, Kerry 48.7 [K278-260] Cory, 10.25.04, 4:27 PM
[] Kerry 49.4, Bush 48.8 [B270-267] David Tell, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 49.7, Bush 48.8 [B276-261] Gameboy, 10.12.04, 10:05 PM
[] Kerry 49.8, Bush 48.8 [K289-249] Brian Alexander, 10.12.04, 5:13 PM
[] Kerry 49.3, Bush 48.7 [K294-244] Verniebaby, 10.30.04, 10:38 PM
[] Bush 48.6, Kerry 48.3 [B270-268] MG, 10.14.04, 12:38 PM
[] Kerry 49.9, Bush 48.6 [K302-233] p.lukasiak, 10.18.04, 6:42 PM
[] Kerry 48.75, Bush 48.5 [K274-264] Shawn Showers, 10.18.04, 6:02 PM
[] Kerry 50.5, Bush 48.5 [K296-242] mark, 10.18.04, 5:58 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 48 [K272-268] Ripple180, 10.29.04, 7:20 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 48 [EV unk] Lee, 10.31.04, 5:33 AM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 48 [K284-254] Jack, 10.12.04, 7:49 PM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 48 [K291-247] Stephen Hayes, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 48 [K277-261] Becky, 10.18.04, 6:01 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 48 [K284-254] tired of blogs, 10.28.04, 10:46 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 48 [EV unk] Susan Petrarca, 10.23.04, 11:00 PM
[] Kerry 49.1, Bush 47.9 [K306-232] Jason R., 10.29.04, 10:49 AM
[] Kerry 50.2, Bush 47.6 [K285-253] akaDoug, 10.12.04, 6:12 PM
[] Kerry 48.1, Bush 47.4 [K278-260] Phillipe, 10.12.04, 3:35 PM
[] Kerry 50.6, Bush 47.2 [K330-208] Dizzy, 10.18.04, 6:07 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [B284-244] Craig Edwards, 10.24.04, 10:09 AM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [K280-258] Dan, 10.14.04, 11:18 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 47 [K285-253] Victorino Matus, 10.29.04, 11:30 AM
[] Kerry 50, Bush 47 [K297-241] Steve, 10.29.04, 7:23 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 47 [K274-264] seaprog, 10.18.04, 6:19 PM
[] Kerry 51, Bush 47 [K291-247] freddyd, 10.12.04, 4:36 PM
[] Kerry 51.7, Bush 46.5 [K288-250] Ted666, 10.28.04, 1:19 PM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 46 [K289-249] Howie, 10.18.04, 6:03 PM
[] Kerry 52, Bush 46 [K322-216] Babak Talebi, 10.18.04, 5:03 PM
[] Kerry 53.5, Bush 45.6 [K290-248] CalDoc, 10.18.04, 6:02 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K317-221] Sailships, 10.12.04 3:10 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K390-148] Bikram Simpson, 10.18.04, 6:17 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K390-148] Bob, 10.18.04, 6:46 PM
[] Kerry 54, Bush 45 [K330-208] Liberal Chris, 10.14.04, 12:51 PM
[] Kerry 49, Bush 44 [EV unk] Ali Karim Bey, 10.15.04, 12:02 PM
[] Nader 65, B 24, K 11 [N227 B207 K104] Marcin,
[] Kerry 96, Bush 02 [EV unk] pighound, 10.19.04, 4:45 PM

There were 485 predictions, with an average breakdown of 51.4% Bush, 46.0% Kerry (EV 303.5-230.5 Bush).

There have been 341 predictions since the final Presidential Debate, averaging 52.0% Bush, 46.5% Kerry (EV 304.4-233.2 Bush).

425 predicted Bush would win both the PV and EV,
39 predicted Kerry would win both the PV and EV,
5 predicted Bush would win the PV but Kerry the EV,
6 predicted Kerry would win the PV but Bush the EV,
2 said the PV would be a tie, but Bush would win the EV,
1 said Kerry would win the PV but the EV would be a tie,
1 said Bush would win the PV but no one would reach 270 EV,
1 said Nader would win the PV but no one would reach 270 EV, and
5 said both the PV and EV would result in a tie.

405 said Bush would take at least 50% of the PV, while 13 said Kerry would take at least 50% of the PV. 7 said Bush would take at least 60% of the PV, while 1 said Kerry would take at least 60% of the PV.


OK, that's the picks from our readers! I'm keeping the Scoreboard on top over here through the end of the week, and I will note the results from Election Day.

As of Friday, corrections or alterations to existing predictions were locked out; no more changes may be made. Original predictions were close this morning, Monday, November 1.

Closest guesses will be praised, worst guesses will be mocked (see how crazy at least one guess is, already!).

Something Fun to Pass the Time

OK, first a caveat: This is NOT a scientific, trustworthy poll. This is a “Time to Kill While I Wait For Hard Results” activity.

AOL wants people to say how they voted, and they have an exit poll of sorts up for that job. Just go here, And tell ‘em how you voted. The results are not scientific, but they are interesting and illustrate a trend. As of 1:30 PM, over 170,000 votes had been received, and nationally the President leads Kerry 57% to 41%. Here are the state results from AOL (early, non-scientific, remember):

Alabama 58-41 Bush
Alaska 68-32 Bush
Arkansas 61-38 Bush
Arizona 62-37 Bush
California 53-46 Bush !!!
Colorado 58-40 Bush
Connecticut 52-46 Bush
Delaware no responses
D.C. 50-48 Kerry
Florida 57-42 Bush
Georgia 66-32 Bush
Hawaii 59-39 Bush
Idaho 68-32 Bush
Illinois 54-44 Bush!!!
Indiana 67-31 Bush
Iowa 56-42 Bush
Kansas 62-37 Bush
Kentucky 62-36 Bush
Louisiana 72-27 Bush
Maine 51-47 Bush
Maryland 59-39 Bush
Massachusetts 50-48 Kerry
Michigan 55-43 Bush!!!
Minnesota 53-46 Bush
Mississippi 77-22 Bush
Missouri 61-37 Bush
Montana 64-33 Bush
Nebraska 67-32 Bush
Nevada 59-39 Bush
New Hampshire 52-42 Bush
New Jersey 55-43 Bush!!!
New Mexico 58-40 Bush
New York 52-46 Kerry
North Carolina 63-35 Bush
North Dakota 65-34 Bush
Ohio 59-40 Bush
Oklahoma 70-28 Bush
Oregon 56-42 Bush
Pennsylvania 53-45 Bush!!!
Rhode Island 52-45 Kerry
South Carolina 69-29 Bush
South Dakota 71-27 Bush
Tennessee 67-32 Bush
Texas 69-29 Bush
Utah 65-31 Bush
Vermont 49-48 Kerry
Virginia 62-35 Bush
Washington 56-41 Bush
West Virginia 61-37 Bush
Wisconsin 58-40 Bush
Wyoming 74-24

President Bush is projected (by this poll) to win, 57-41% PV and 482-056 EV. Doesn’t that look nice?

Osama and the Other Cowards

Some years back, I took a strong interest in History. Part of it fit my personal interest in following trends and patterns; people are very habitual, even in groups, and what they do, they are likely to repeat. I also enjoyed the lessons of significant actions, many times from initial points which did not seem as vital as they later proved. But I also found it intriguing, how many times people chose to ignore History, replacing it with specious flotsam they preferred to watch, or else simply guessing at their steps and courses. This proves particularly true in Politics, where so many make their fortune through manipulation and deceit.

But that deceit often is played against oneself, and that very often when we come across the foreign culture. I am presently reading a history of crime syndicates in China, and when I reached the section regarding the Boxer Rebellion, I was struck by the inability of East and West to understand the other side’s reason and motive. I see the same self-blinding attitude in the First and Second World Wars, in the Rise and Fall of Communism (and before them the great Trusts of Europe and America), and in the arrogance of the over-weening Federal government here in America, and the oppressive appetite of the United Nations, more for fraud and self-advancement, than ever for peace and raising the level of human welfare.

This past week, Osama bin Laden made a blatant and clumsy effort to influence the Presidential elections. Most Americans immediately understood his motive and, whatever their preference, have made sure to keep the Mad Mullah’s intentions and preferences out of their decisioning. It is important, however, to consider just why bin Laden thinks this tape he has released might work for him, anyway.

Many people understand that Osama bin Laden is very intelligent. He is college-educated, speaks a number of languages, and is trained to think mathematically, having an engineering background. Ironically, the man started his life preparing to build and establish things, rather than his later career of killing and destroying. But many people fail to understand that Osama bin Laden not only has no experience with Western Culture, he went out of his way to eschew it. This may be well for his perverted version of Islam, but it is rank foolishness if you want to know your opponent. Unfortunately, Osama became a force in Terrorism just as Bill Clinton was taking office. In Clinton’s defense, any American President would have been unlikely to recognize the full effect of Terrorism’s new evolution, but by 1995, Clinton was clearly aware that Al Qaeda existed as a new sort of Terrorist threat, an independent multi-national organization, dedicated to aims hostile to U.S. interests and security. Worse, Clinton’s habit to window-dressing his actions to look good, no matter how futile in reality, seemed to Osama to mirror the actions taken by the Saudi and Pakistani governments; face-saving measures and nothing more. This made Al Qaeda bolder and more aggressive. On September 11, 2001, we discovered the level of his new braggadocio.

Fortunately for us, the nation had a new leader. If George W. Bush has his flaws (which he does), at the least he understands a few things about National Security, and he has the right temperament for such as crisis as 9/11. Even though Democrats chastised him for being unwilling to scare a roomful of school children (apparently believing that a mad dash without knowing what to do, was somehow preferable to letting the Secret Service and his staff coordinate his next actions), President Bush quickly isolated the areas of attack, grounding air traffic first in the stricken area, then nationwide to prevent further potential attacks (and we know from the capture and interrogation of Khalid Mohammed, that exactly such follow-up attcks were foiled by Bush’s quick thinking). He took all the immediate actions against Al Qaeda which were possible (such as seizing bank accounts and ordering a coordination of available intelligence on the group in connection with the known facts) , and planned a serious campaign for taking out major Terrorist groups and their support. Whatever your opinion of the War on Terror, from Osama bin Laden’s perspective, it has been a nightmare, as his financial and logistic base have been wiped out. How many people, I wonder, have understood that a videotape is the best Osama can do, having lost most of the means to strike at the United States as he would prefer to do? How many people understand the significance, that the man who boasted loudly that he wished to die as a martyr in the war against America, now suggests he would like to negotiate with the U.S.?

There are several critical lessons for Americans to understand about Osama bin Laden. One of them, is that Osama represents no country, and only a perversion of Islam. He has been able to poison places like Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past, and many of the terrorists still warring in Iraq are loyal to Osama or men just like him. But the average Arab has no love for this murderer, and anyone with a sense of Islam as The Prophet taught it, knows that Osama is as much the infidel, as Saddam was, or as any false prophet. Some of the Muslim nations have voiced against the United States and appeared to support Osama, but that was only for their own advantage. Notice that Osama does not dare step in Saudi Arabia, where a death sentence awaits Osama, nor even Syria or Iran. When Osama dies, they will simply move on to the next convenient tool. If he should somehow survive, Osama is of no value to the nations of the Middle East, except that so long as he appears to be popular with many people, those governments will play devotion to please their crowds.

The next lesson is that the Middle East is in transition. Most people do not realize that the nations of the Middle East, for the most part, only came into being as we now know them after the Second World War, and even then they enjoyed little independence or freedom. Only now are many Middle Eastern people discovering they may choose their own way, faithful to The Prophet yet secure in their own worth as individuals. Only now are many Arabs discovering they may, perhaps, choose their own path, perhaps even establishing a future for themselves and their families by their own work and planning.

The third lesson is America. We have hardly been a perfect nation, but as happened after World War 2, the Arab World is now beginning to realize that we are a nation of our word. We not only make bold promises, this time we shall keep those promises, to the benefit of all. A democratic republic in Iraq, coupled with the new government in Afghanistan, can change many things in the region. Some of the groups acting against us, do so out of fear. After all, men who have enjoyed power through sexist, racist, or class suppression have great reason to fear the education, equal opportunity, and civil protection of all people, but in the end, the advancement of these basic rights will be precious to future generations.

Osama hates us, but he also fears us. Because we are his doom and the end of many like him, if we stay the course and do not give up. That is just one more reason, why it is so important that President Bush must be re-elected. We are at a crossroads, and the whole world is bettered or cheated by our choice.

A Comment on Comments

I've been reading a lot of comments lately from all sorts of readers. I have also been getting a lot of mail, from readers who want a more direct approach. Come to that, my virus filter has been more busy than usual, suggesting that some others prefer a more malicious approach to expressing themselves (remember that, if you start up your own blog).

Many of the comments have been entertaining, and some quite intriguing for their perspectives and observations. But I also read a lot of notes and posts from people on both ends of the range, suggesting that they respected and enjoyed my work - as long as I agreed with them. To these, there is something wrong with having my own opinion, and they reject my positions out of hand, simply for being different from their own opinion. Tough tookies. I write my opinion honestly, neither forgetting the President's errors, nor excusing the thuggish tactics shown by the Democrats in this campaign. If this is a problem for you, well, there's plenty of sites which only consider the Hard Left or the Far Right, where maturity is not expected nor encouraged, or where honesty is considered an unfortunate lapse in message.

It is entirely possible that Senator Kerry will win. While I do not believe this will happen, if it does, Kerry will be the legitimately-elected President, and I will post my opinion acording to his performance, giving credit or fault as appropriate. In such a case, I will be interested to see which of his many contradictory promises John Kerry will keep, if any.

It is likely, I deem, that President Bush will win re-election. Well enough, and in this election I certainly think we have been presented no rational alternative to the sitting President. But that does not mean that I will give Dubya a pass on whatever he wants to do. Whether we are talking about the War on Terrorism, the Economy, Deficit, Taxes, Immigration, Judicial Appointments, or any of countless potential crises, I will be writing from my own perspective on the virtue or foolishness of his acts in a second term.

I have every intention of being as opinionated and wordy over the next four years, as I have been in the past few months. If you find my articles reasonable, thanks and plan on more on that level. If you find my honesty too blunt for your taste, then that's your matter.

As always, thanks to my readers and also for your comments.

Lessons

I have always held an inordinate interest in politics, especially Presidential Elections. I have to say, I'm fairly amused when I read and hear how different this election is, when compared to all the ones before it. But I agree, that there seem to be lessons in each of the elections I've seen, and it seems we'll all learn a new one next week.

The first election I was able to participate in, was the 1972 race between Richard Nixon and George McGovern. I remember how bitter everyone was, even at my Junior High School. I also thought it was obvious, that McGovern didn't understand the needs of the country. From the results, I think that was obvious to the voters. The lesson in 1972 was, if you can't explain how you'll protect the nation, you can't be the President.

In 1976, I saw Gerald Ford lose a narrow race to Jimmy Carter. Even though there were serious questions about Carter's ability, President Ford couldn't overcome the curse for Watergate. The lesson in 1976 was, if you cheat the nation as Nixon did, everyone pays for it.

In 1980, I saw the media attack and try to ignore Governor Ronald Reagan, but President Carter's bumbling, matched against Reagan's clear optimism and clarity, proved the course. The lesson in 1980 was, you can try to hide the opinion of the people, but the mood catches hold anyway.

In 1984, Democrats tried very hard to hit Reagan with some kind of scandal, very much as they attack Bush today. When the public figured out it was just dirty tricks from the Left, the result was the biggest landslide in a generation. The lesson in 1984 was, dirty tricks can backfire.

In 1988, VP George Bush trailed Governor Dukakis for most of the early going. But Dukakis' record did not stand up to inspection, and in the end, the man couldn't answer serious questions. The lesson in 1988 was, be true to your convictions for the best result.

In 1992, a manufactured image by the media and the Democrats tore down a President wearied by attacks abroad and at home. The Congress made promises to the President, then broke them, and the media made sure every success was suppressed. The lesson in 1992 was, trusting your enemies gets you a knife in your back.

In 1996, Bill Clinton successfully hid his lies and shortcuts to a second term, largely because the GOP settled on a dull contender. The lesson in 1996 is, style can and does trump substance in elections.

In 2000, Governor George W. Bush trailed Vice-President Al Gore for most of the late summer, then took a late lead, only to see it evaporate with a cheap-shot slander, combined with a very effective Democratic GOTV effort. Bush was able to win the election with the Electoral Vote, but lost the Popular Vote narrowly. The lesson in 2000 is, assume nothing and never let up until the race is over.

My opinion in this election is known, but if somehow I am wrong and Senator Kerry is able to win the election, it will prove that dirty tricks can get anyone elected. If I am right that Bush wins, but only narrowly, it will still give Democrats confidence that more lies and mud is always teh best strategy. If I am right, however, this won't be a problem. It won't be a problem, because Americans are generally smarter than they're given credit for being. They saw the difference between Truman's substance and Dewey's acting in 1948, between Eisenhower's ability and Stevenson's pretense, between Reagan's optimism and Carter's confusion. Yeah, they bought into Slick Willy, but John Kerry is not Bill Clinton. If I'm right, George W, Bush will not only win, he'll stomp Kerry big-time in both the PV and EV. There are many reasons why I expect this, but at its heart, it really comes down to the lesson of 2004: Amercians love this country, and will not forget 9/11 anytime soon.

We will see.

Walkabout

A lot of people have been talking about 'Red-State-Blue-State', as if the race has been an even tie all these months. That's just not so.

Kerry started, effectively, where Al Gore left off, with 20 states and D.C. to think of as his turf, worth 267 EV in 2000 but only 260 today (after the Census redistribution). So, in order to be President, John Kerry has had to chase down all Gore had in 2000, plus another 10 EV somewhere from Bush territory. The starting lines then, were not even, but 278-260 Bush.

Kerry has managed to put Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia, Colorado, and Arkansas in play, of the 'Red' states. That's 8 Bush states, worth 87 Electoral Votes. Bush's 'safe' tally drops from 278 to 191 EV. We'll come back in a minute to look again at these states.

But Bush has managed to put Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Oregon, New Jersey, Maine, and Hawaii into play, of the 'Blue' states. That's 10 'Gore/Kerry' states, worth 100 Electoral Votes. Kerry's 'safe' tally drops from 260 to 160 EV, so as we prepare to look at these states a second time, that puts Bush still ahead of Kerry by 31 EV, 191 to 160.

Taking the RCP averages in hand, here are how the states stand:

Maine: Kerry + 8.5
Oregon: Kerry + 4.5
Michigan: Kerry + 4.0
New Jersey: Kerry + 4.0
Pennsylvania: Kerry + 3.2
New Hampshire: Kerry + 2.4
Florida: Bush + 0.5
Ohio: Bush + 0.6
Hawaii: Bush + 0.9
Minnesota: Bush + 1.0
Arkansas: Bush + 2.0
Wisconsin: Bush + 2.0
New Mexico: Bush + 2.7
Iowa: Bush + 3.3
West Virginia: Bush + 4.0
Colorado: Bush + 4.4
Missouri: Bush + 5.3
Nevada: Bush + 5.4

Of those 18 states, Kerry leads in 6, Bush the other 12 states. If I also look at the Average Variance (or bias) I identified in an earlier review of state polling, the simple fact is that Kerry is in big trouble. The net effect of all of this, is that President Bush is trending stronger, gaining every week. If Kerry cannot win Florida or Ohio, he cannot win. Since the overall race is so close in many Blue states, the last few days will have to be spent travelling to all close contests, meaning Pennsylvania-Ohio-Iowa-Wisconsin-Minnesota will be the dominant circuit. It also shows, that if the present trend continues, the chance of a Bush win remains strong and the chance of a Bush landslide is getting stronger every day.

How Texas Does Landslides (originally posted Aug 27)

Some November 3rd Conversations...


Pic 1: "I don't believe it!

"OK, I lost to Bush, I can deal with that. But then, he takes out the mansion, the lake house, the summer place, all three campaign jets, even the yacht! Tereza is royally annoyed!

"I wanted to sue him, but Edwards has plain disappeared.

"George W. Bush has destroyed my aspirations, in a manner reminiscent of Jenjhis Khan..."


Pic 2: "Ha! You are sooooo lucky!

"Bush trashed all twenty-four of my palaces, except for the ones he gave to his Marines!

"I not only lost my job, and all my palaces and everyone hits my pictures with shoes and feces, he has me arrested!

"You lost millions, but I lost BILLIONS, and now everyone in Islam calls me "Spider Hole Wuss"!"


Pic 3: Dubya - "Thanks, guys!"

Pilot 1 - "Hey, the oath we take, says ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC..."

Pilot 2 - "Yeah, and some parts of Massachusetts remind me of Iraq!"

See Kerry Sweat

Just an observation:

In both Florida and Ohio, where Kerry thought he could make a play, Bush numbers are coming back up.

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are both in the Kerry column, but now by less than their Margins of Error.

Michigan is supposed to be secure for Kerry, but a new poll shows Bush ahead.

Kerry now trails the President in the following "Blue" states:

Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Hawaii


When the Botox wears off, it is not pretty.

Lessons From Lawyers

We are told, over and over again, about how partisan this election is, and how we can't trust the other side. While there are some mean and petty types out there (and yes, I figure about 98% of the really bad guys are Democrats this time), I don't buy the idea that the average citizen is some mind-controlled robot or deluded fanatic. As evidence, take a look at the recent court decisions.

Yes, it's true that Senator Kerry has sent out teams of "pre-emptive strike" lawyers, like the ninjas in countless bad movies, but the results so far have been encouraging. Courts in Ohio, Michigan, and Florida have all upheld state law preventing funny business with provisional ballots, and in short, have told the lawyers that they are distinctly not inclined to repeat the shenanigans that ran the 2000 Election into absurdity. yes, one partisan judge tried to subvert the law in Ohio, but the Appeals Court spanked him for it almost immediately. And the Florida Supreme Court, the same guys who tried to sneak the state for Al Gore, unanimously rejected the notion of messing with Florida election law this year.

There is sanity, at least signs of it, at work this year. And that is very good for all of us.

The Divide

Over the course of this election, I have noticed that many on the Left and Right look at the other side and wonder in so many words, "why don't they get it?". I have a bit of a better idea about that now.

Friday, I was chattnig with a co-worker. Smart guy, nice and pretty rational. But while we were discussing the Astros, he mentioned that he was an "anti-Bush" voter.

'Come again' I asked.

"I'm not for Kerry" he explained. "I'm just against Bush."

We discussed that option for a few minutes. In short, the guy said he just couldn't agree with Bush after the War in Iraq. The guy said he was sure Bush deliberately misled the country about WMD in order to invade Iraq.

'Now, think about that' I suggested to him. 'Bush was sure we'd win, right?'

The man agreed.

'So,' I continued, 'Bush knew we'd win in Iraq. So if he knew before the war that we wouldn't find WMD there, why would he make such a noise about WMD before the war? He would have known that would come back on him later.'

The man had no explanation.

I asked him what he thought Kerry would do about Terrorism, or Taxes, or any of the major issues. What made John Kerry qualified to be President of the United States?

The guy shrugged. That's right, he had said he planned to vote for John Kerry to lead the nation for the next four years, and he had not even one substantial reason to trust the man with the job.

Anyway, I pressed him politely on why he was going to vote 'against Bush' when the facts were as they are, and he shrugged again. 'That's how I feel' he said.

And that's it. Some of us will vote by how we feel, and some of us have thought the matter through. May God save the United States of America from people who vote, but refuse to think.

Dilative Poll Demographic Transition

Hello again!

For those interested in the details under the surface of most National polls, I have reviewed the September 20-26 demographic sector support, and note them now alongside the October 14-20 demographic sector support.

Further discussion of the nature and validity of the National polls may be read here.

Category:.......................................September...........................October
Republican Support for Bush......91.3%....................................91.3%
Democrat Suport for Bush..........11.5%.....................................09.3%
Independent Support for Bush...46.3%...................................45.8%
Republican Support for Kerry.....05.0%..................................06.5%
Democrat Support for Kerry.......83.3%...................................87.0%
Independent Support for Kerry..41.3%...................................44.5%

Men for Bush..................................52.2%..................................52.8%
Men for Kerry................................40.0%..................................41.3%
Women for Bush............................47.2%...................................44.3%
Women for Kerry..........................45.0%...................................50.0%

Job Approval..................................52.4%...................................49.5%

Bush Personal Favorability..........50.3%...................................54.0%
Kerry Personal Favorability........43.3%....................................32.7%

(age range differs from poll to poll)
18-49 yr old Bush..........................56%.......................................51%
18-49 yr old Kerry........................40%.......................................45%
18-30 yr old Bush.........................51%........................................42%
18-30 yr old Kerry.......................42%........................................51%
31-44 yr old Bush..........................50%.......................................52.5%
31-44 yr old Kerry........................44%........................................43%
30-49 yr old Bush..........................51%........................................49%
30-49 yr old Kerry........................39%........................................44%
45-60 yr old Bush..........................53%........................................49%
45-60 yr old Kerry........................43%........................................45.5%
50-64 yr old Bush..........................49%........................................46.5%
50-64 yr old Kerry........................43%........................................47.5%
61+ yr old Bush..............................48%........................................51%
61+ yr old Kerry............................45%........................................44.5%
65+ yr old Bush..............................50%........................................43.5%
65+ yr old Kerry............................42%.........................................46.5%

Whites for Bush..............................56.7%.......................................56.5%
Whites for Kerry............................35.7%.......................................40%
non-Whites for Bush.....................27%...........................................22.5%
non-Whites for Kerry...................63%...........................................67.5%
Blacks for Bush..............................13.5%........................................11%
Blacks for Kerry............................76%............................................80%

East - Bush.....................................43.3%........................................41.5%
East - Kerry...................................49%...........................................53.3%
Midwest - Bush.............................53%...........................................47.8%
Midwest - Kerry...........................39%............................................46%
South - Bush..................................53.5%.........................................53.5%
South - Kerry................................40%............................................40.5%
West - Bush...................................47.8%.........................................47.5%
West - Kerry.................................44.5%.........................................46.8%

Imagine

Imagine the following scenario:

Syria hosts a groups which has just assassinated a high-ranking Israeli elected official. Israel is threatening immediate military action against Syria, unless the group is arrested and turned over to Israeli authorities for trial and punishment. The leaders of France and Germany plead for calm, denouncing in advance any "reckless" U.S. action. England says terrorists must not be tolerated.

If this were to happen in, say, March of April of next year, we all know pretty well what President Bush would do about it ( And to my mind, that's one reason nothing like that has happened there ).

But if John Kerry were to be the President in such a situation, how would he handle it? When you understand, you'll know why it's so important, for so many reasons on so many levels, why President Bush must be re-elected.

Look Presidential

One of the more interesting messages I have received. Asked about those yellow bands being worn by both President Bush and Senator Kerry. What, he asked, is that about? Some secret society, some private identification, some obscure conspiracy?

Actually, the yellow bands worn by both the President and Mr. Kerry are for a worthy cause both men support. The yellow bands are from the Lance Armstrong Foundation, a foundation Lance created to help cancer survivors and their families. The yellow bands are called “Livestrong” bands, and donors to the Foundation wear the bands as signs of their support and to spread the word about cancer research.

One thing, besides wearing the bands, that speaks well for both men, is that neither has ever brought up the bands or tried to use the Foundation for political gain.

Bands may be bought in lots of 10, 100, or 1000, at only a $1 a wristband. Because of strong interest, it takes 3 to 4 weeks for delivery, but the cause is the thing.

Be Presidential; donate to the Lance Armstrong Foundation!

A Clear Choice

It's a simple choice, really.

John Kerry calls this a "nuisance".

President George W. Bush calls this an act of war, which demands America respond in force to prevent future attacks here.

Who do you choose to lead us in these times?

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I've been getting a lot of mail about my prediction that President Bush will claim 55% of the Popular Vote in this election. Some people have wondered whether I am serious about my call, or whether I'm just selling pro-Bush excitement. Yes, I am serious, and while I could go into the technical reasons how I arrived at 55%, for this article I'd rather just explain how it's really a common-sense position.

Since World War 2, what I'd call the modern political era, there have been six presidents who ran for re-election. Four got re-elected, and two were defeated. In a quick glance, I find Dubya's position a lot more like Clinton in 1996, Reagan in 1984, Nixon in 1972, and Eisenhower in 1956, than I do GHW Bush in 1992, or Carter in 1980. When a President wins re-election, it tends to be by a big margin.But there's more. I find Dr. Ray Fair's economic model valid, and that model says Bush will win with between 54 and 58 percent of the 2-party split. The three key issues voters say will decide their vote (Terrorism, Iraq, Taxes), are issues where Bush hold a commanding lead. Also, the state polls which are getting the most attention since the debates ended, all show Bush gaining strength. That means a small Bush lead now, is growing and will continue to grow.

But there's more. The polls right now like to push respondents to pick a candidate, regardless of their strength of support. And that inflates Kerry's numbers, to be blunt. EVERY poll tracking strength of support, has put President Bush well ahead of Senator Kerry in every poll this year, by anywhere from five to twenty points! That means, to me, that the people saying they support Bush and plan to vote for him, are likely to do so, but some of the people saying they support Kerry, will not, in fact, actually vote.

Also, there is the old myth that undecideds break for the challenger, 2 to 1. That's not true. Sometimes a challenger gets the undecideds, but sometimes the incumbent does. In 2000, for example, Al Gore (representing the incumbent party, since Clinton was President at the time) took 65% of the undecideds. A lot of people made a lot of noise about Kerry "winning" the debates, but when asked who they will vote for, of three focus groups asked, between 60% and 75% say they will vote ... for President Bush.

Finally, recall one critical question that warned us early that Kerry's support wasn't very good. All year long, most of Kerry's supporters have said they were not voting for Kerry, but against President Bush. Not too many people have thought it through, to realize that this means no matter what Kerry says, these Kerry supporters are paying attention mostly to the President. If he convinces them to switch back, that's a big thing, and no, there are no Bush supporters of any number who are basing their decision on anything Kerry says or does.

Bush 55%. It's for real.

How The Democrats Are Helping Dubya Get Re-Elected

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I never thought I'd be one to write this, but: Thank you, John Kerry.

Thank you for concentrating your campaign on the issue where President Bush is the strongest, and for insisting that his most obvious success came from a road you would not choose to take .

Thank you for reminding America that you would demand that America get World permission before defending itself against Terrorists, whom you equate with misdemeanor crimes like Prostitution and Gambling.

Thank you for reminding us in the Primaries that the World, Iraq, and America are all safer with Saddam captured, then throwing away that position in the General Election to claim that somehow we would be safer with Saddam in power.

Thank you for admitting that you think Human Rights are "given by our courts", rather than God or our own existence.

Thank you for displaying your boorish condescension of Mary Cheney to the nation on television, attempting to demean her and her family in order to insinuate a prejudice that they do not exhibit, but you and your running mate displayed repeatedly.

Thank you for never elucidating a clear explanation of your policies and positions.

Thank you for demonstrating that while you claim to represent the average man, your idea of the average man is a fellow who hunts deer on his belly with a shotgun, who can afford weekend jaunts to the coast for windsurfing at a private resort, who hates successful people and doesn't mind more taxes, and who botoxes his face and paints it orange in the belief that he looks more natural that way.

Thank you for being so thin-skinned, you over-react to every reasonable examination of your record.

Thank you for letting yourself be connected to thugs like Michael Moore and MoveOn.org, and for showing your true character in your treatment of the men assigned for your protection.

There was a time, Senator, where you really did have a chance at winning the White House. Thank you for throwing that chance away, and insuring that George W. Bush will be re-elected.

Thoughts on the Spin

This morning, I was listening to the radio on the way to work, and thought about the 'Insta-polls' from the night before, which boldly declared that Kerry won the debate.

I knew all the reasons not to believe in those works of spin. I was well aware, for example, that many Democrat websites and groups had planned ahead of time to swamp the polls for Kerry, and I also knew that there is absolutely no science to those things; even the network polls admit they have no detailed demographics and use a much smaller base than anyone would consider reasonable for even a snapshot. But more than anything else, they miss the critical question. They ask who won the debate, assuming that this matters in the election. They do not, I think intentionally, ask who the voters will support in the Election. Because they already know that answer, and they want to sell a different story.

But I also thought of another way to explain why the spin is not important. A couple years ago, my department was expanding, and my company had me interview a number of applicants. I remember one woman in particular. She was very attractive, very intelligent, and very articulate. Of more than thirty interviews I had, I would have to say hers was the most enjoyable, and she made a very good impression. However, when it was time to make the decision on the two people to hire, this woman was not one of the two I chose. Why not? Because for all her appearance, intelligence, and personality, she was not nearly the best qualified. My department has no direct contact with the public, so beauty and fashion have no value for our group. My department does analysis and investigations, and the team members have to be very familiar with the relevant laws and codes in force. This woman did well in her interview, but completely failed to show why she should be hired for the position; she possessed none of the requisite skills.

That is the same problem for John Kerry. he is clearly intelligent, and dresses well. He does not, however, have the necessary abilities and resume to be President of the United States. Somehow, Kerry managed to forget that while his "Hate Bush" message was sufficient to get people to give him a look, he still had to convince voters that he could do the job. For all the months he spent campaigning, for all his time in front of cameras during the Primaries, during the Democrats' Convention, and the three Debates, John Kerry never showed any compelling reason to believe he could make the hard choices, or that he understood the priorities and mission of the White House. Yes, he managed to look and sound impressive at times. But that only qualified him to replace Martin Sheen. It never came close to qualifying him for the Oval Office.

It remains to be seen, how much damage will be done by the Old Media spin machine, by the frantic efforts of his '527' attack dogs, or the smear tactics of the lawyers sent to extort a Democrat win in the swing states, but in the end it won't be enough.

John Kerry has proven to the nation that he is not up to the job, and President Bush has affirmed that he is competent.

Why Dubya Will Win

I love getting mail. One of my readers, Marc Straus, asked me why I was so confident President Bush will win re-election. I sent him back a reply, then decided I should post my argument here, as well.

I predict a 55% to 43% Bush victory; there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

I'll put up another post between now and the election about why the numbers will be this high, but basically, it comes down to three factors; Key Issues, Strength-of-Support, and Turnout.

First, Key Issues. There's a lot of chatter, but over the past two years, people have clearly said over and over they really only wonder about three big issues: The Economy, Iraq, and the War on Terror. The Economy was weak last year, but has been steadily growing for a long time. Notice how the Democrats have had to progressively back off their talk about Recession, then about no new jobs, then they finally resorted to statistics, trying to get people to stop thinking things are good. That's not a winning hand. Next, things in Iraq have really settled down since May, with the Handover of Sovereignty and the coming elections, and the news that the Sadr Militia is disbanding. Then there's Terrorism. Kerry somehow still doesn't get it, to the point that he talks about the #1 issue with voters, as a "nuisance". All of these work to Bush's advantage.

Now, about Strength-of-Support. Even when Kerry had a lead this summer, I noticed that his internals showed his voters weren't hard-core, but soft, while the President's support has always been concentrated, very focused. Kerry never got around to specifics in his plans, and his attacks on Bush ran only on emotion; even with all the attention, there was never a scrap of substance to them, so Kerry also became seen as a man attacking a strong President. Strong enough, that even after a poor first debate, Bush was seen as a more decisive leader, and a better man in a crisis. That keeps things going in the same direction.

Then there's turnout. A lot of people talk about the 48-60% turnout, but few people pay attention to what causes the dropoff. In the end, the fact is that most people don't think much about elections, especially since most voters only show up for Presidential and Congressional elections. It's not routine, it means getting registered, then remembering to find out where and when to vote, and if you don't vote early (most people don't), then you have to remember to make extra time on one day to go to a place you have likely not been before. Basically, people only turn out in big numbers when they are really excited by a candidate, or they are really mad at his opponent. Simply put, Kerry is not exciting to very many people, but Dubya is, and more, Kerry has said the same things for so long, it doesn't really charge people up. But the attacks on Bush, especially the lies told, have revved up the Bush people.

Put it all together, and yes, I'm comfortable with the idea that President will put up big numbers. Actually, President Bush had the chance for some really big numbers, but he is not as eloquent as Reagan, and the media has slammed him pretty good. But with a good economy and a decent foreign policy, 55% is not unreasonable.

Thanks to Marc for his question, and to all of you for reading, and your comments! Alternative opinions are also welcome, but I'd like to see your reasoning, as well.

DJD

Two Men, Two Battles, Two Attitudes

Many people opened their newspapers or websites this morning, and read about the tragic death of Christopher Reeve at age 52. Already, the more Left-leaning partisans have begun to work political outrage from the passing of the popular actor/advocate. It's not unexpected, given the words and arguments of the past year.

Coincidentally, another man passed away last night, also from a heart attack. Ken Caminiti, the one-time National League's Most Valuable Player, and beloved member of the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres organizations, died at age 41, alone and bankrupt. His death, equally tragic, brings no calls for accountability from anyone, and indeed, little enough attention. The differences between these two men, and the people who knew them, is worth comment.

Nine years ago, Christopher Reeve was a succesful Hollywood actor, who was already using his name and influence to support favored liberal causes. In May of 1995, while riding a show horse, the horse balked, and Reeve fell, landing on his head and crushing several vertebrae in his spine. Only prompt medical attention and expert surgery saved his life, but it left him paralyzed. Reeve was able to recover limited use of his body, and he went on to write books and speak publically, often tying his disability to the need to suport his chosen causes. Reeve never said so directly, but often suggested that he would recover faster, if his favored research into embryonic stem cell research had been fully suported, even though a primary source for embryonic stem cells is aborted fetuses. The fact that embryonic stem cell research has not been established as leading to the cure for even one disease, and shows no promise whatsoever for chronic conditions, Reeve conveniently ignored.

Nine years ago, Ken Caminiti was in a slump. The All-Star 3rd baseman for the Astros appeared to be slowing down and losing power. Before the season began, he was traded to the San Diego Padres, where he worked hard to improve his batting average from .283 to .302, but nine years in the Majors were wearing him down. Ken had a well-deserved reputation as a serious player, who never missed workouts or practices, not to mention exhibition games or appearances. By the end of 1995, Caminiti had played in 1,243 regular-season games.

In 1996, Reeve's therapy allowed him some minor successes, but none more important than regaining some of his speech. He was able to direct and write books, as well as give limited interviews. In 1996, Ken Caminiti was the National League's MVP, with a .326 batting average and a .621 slugging average. He hit 40 home runs that year, and enjoyed a .954 fielding percentage, and had been on base 260 times. Unfortunately, 1996 was pretty much the high-water mark for both men.

Reeve's recovery suffered a letdown, and he broke his arm in a fall from his exercise bike. As for Caminiti, he began a slide which took years to appear in its effects. Caminiti was the kind of player who went all-out, and he paid for it in pain and muscle damage. Caminiti began to regularly use steroids, unaware at the time that there would be long-term effects; he wanted to be game-ready, and considered steroids a price he had to pay to meet that commitment.

By 2001, the two men had clearly begun their descent. Both also began to speak out against apathy in their conditions. Reeve wanted more research done to help paralysis, while Caminiti spoke out against steroid abuse in MLB, to keep other athletes from becoming addicted, as he was. Unknown to the public, however, Reeve was suffering a long-term decline in his condition, and Caminiti had also become addicted to prescription pain relievers.

By 2003, the decline had steepened. Reeve began to lose muscle tone in his lower body again. Ken Caminiti, given a chance by the Padres, the Rangers, and a second chance with the Astros, saw his career end with an arrest for cocaine possession. The 3-time All-Star, who owned 3 Gold Gloves and an MVP award, had lost his baseball career, his wife left him, and most of his friends were nowhere to be found. Even those who wanted to help Ken, found him stubborn and reclusive.

In the end, there are both striking similarities and differences between these men. Both were famous and successful at their chosen profession, famous and wealthy. But one used his disability to advance his political causes, while the other tried to fight his battles alone, accepting responsibility but unable to defeat his demons. One enjoyed the support of his family and friends, and kept his wealth and reputation, while the other lost everything, from his wife to his fortune to his health to his name to his very last chance.

Both men should be remembered. But for very different reasons.

Demographics: A Reminder

Back on August 26, I put up an article about the weight and history of demographics, as they've played out in Presidential elections. It's not a bad idea to look again at the numbers, to see if and how things stand, with just over three weeks to go.

By the way, here in Texas early voting starts October 18. I plan to get my vote in early, just in case E-day is crazy. You might want to make sure you'll get your vote in, also.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with just 41% of the Men’s vote. In 2000, Bush took 53% of the Men’s Vote. In August Bush had 49.0%, Kerry 42.2%. Right now Bush as 51.2%, to Kerry's 43.6%, which favors Bush.

In 1968, Richard Nixon won the White House with just 43% of the Women’s vote. In 2000, Bush took 43% of Women’s Vote. Kerry in August had 49.0%, Bush 40.8%, to the present average of 48.6% Kerry to 45.0% Bush. Again, the trend is moving towards Bush.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with just 39% of the White vote. In 2000, Bush took 54% of the White Vote. In August Bush had 54.0%, and Kerry had 40.0%. Now, it's 53.5% Bush to 41.5% Kerry.

In 2000, George W. Bush won the White House with just 9% of the Black vote. Kerry had 84% and Bush 12% of the Black vote in August. now, it's 82% Kerry, 14% Bush, which is very good for Dubya.

In 2000, George W. Bush took 22.8% of the non-White Vote. In August, Kerry had 73.1% and Bush 24.1% of the non-White Vote. Now it's 66.3% Kerry to 26.7% Bush, another sign of growing support for the President.

.In 1980, Ronald Reagan won the White House with just 86% of the Republican Vote. In 2000, Bush took 92% of the Republican Vote. In August, Bush had 88.4% of the Republican Vote. he now runs at 91.9%.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with just 82% of the Democrat Vote. Kerry had 85.4% of the Democrat Vote in August. He now runs at 76.4%.

In 2000, Bush won the White House with 10% of the Democrat Vote. In August, Bush was polling 8.3% of the Democrat Vote. He now claims 9.8%.

In 1960, John F. Kennedy won the White House with 5% of the Republican Vote. In August, Kerry was polling 6% of the Republican Vote. He now is getting 4.2%.

All in all, the numbers speak loudly. If you listen closely, you can make it out:

Four More Years
Four More Years
Four More Years...