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When I announced my intention to remain in Houston during Hurricane Rita, it immediately provoked a fair amount of debate. Now that the crisis is largely past, I think it would be useful to re-examine the decision.
There is an old saying; no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. And it’s not far from that to say that the real world is not kind to plans we make for emergencies. That’s part of why I am writing this article, actually - it is far easier to make a general plan and demand someone else follow it faithfully, than to make all the adjustments needed under the pressure of real time and significant consequences.
It’s always a good idea to have plans for emergencies; fire escape plans, tornado and flood response, intruder alarm and escape, and so on. But it’s just as important to have Plans B, C, and D, for what happens if something shoots the first plan to pieces. And hurricanes are a good example of a situation not agreeing to follow the plan.
Like Katrina, Rita formed up rather quickly for a storm of its size and strength. It changed course a number of times, even in the last day before landfall, making it difficult to know the conditions to expect. Some will (correctly) observe that this fact makes it important to prepare for the worst, but it also means that we have to divide our plans into things we expect to control, and things we cannot control.
Like many people who live on the Gulf Coast (though not nearly so many as I would like), I made plans to address hurricane and severe storm conditions. The things I can control in such conditions basically come down to laying in supplies, like canned food and bottled water, confirming the stability of the residence and street conditions, and planning evacuation routes for various situations. These were all in place.
A number of factors affected the decision I had to make last Wednesday. They included the following:
1. The coastal and low-lying areas were ordered to evacuate, and people living in known flood-prone areas were asked to consider evacuation. People who did not live in flood plains, as is my case, were told to exercise “common sense”. The area where I live has never flooded on record.
2. We had two cars, and had plans which allowed flexibility depending on which car (or both) we took. When my car was stolen on the night of the 13th, that reduced options severely.
2a. With only one car, we no longer had the ability to keep one car fully fueled at all times, and because of the necessary method for getting parents to and from work, and the daughter to and from school, the CRV was only half-full Wednesday evening when we had to choose our actions.
3. Because Mikki and I both had to work through Wednesday, by the time we were all back home, the major roads were crowded, the gas stations were jammed with long lines and already starting to run dry, and this reduced feasible options.
4. I knew Houston traffic from long congestion, and correctly anticipated that we would run out of gas before could reach a safe destination, and might be unable to find fuel to make the journey.
5. I have relatives in other countries, but not in Central or North Texas. As a result, evacuation would mean trying to find a hotel in another county on no notice, which would be relatively expensive and difficult.
6. Our residence does not sit in a flood plain, nor do any of the major roads which lead from it out of town.
7. The building in which I live is a thick brick structure, with surrounding brick structures. It has never been flooded, nor has it suffered significant damage from wind. Since we are 60 miles inland, and our apartment is on the second floor, we are in danger from neither the storm surge nor flooding, unless something truly unprecedented happens, but must prepare for wind under a known number of limited possibilities.
Our choices then, were reduced to trying to find fuel, risking what we already, had, and then to make a long trip to an unknown destination. Otherwise, we could choose to reinforce our residence, make use of prepared supplies, and ride out the storm. The measure was unknown risk against known risk, unknown cost and difficulty against a reasonable estimate of cost and difficulty, and the uncontrollable behavior of other drivers and non-local conditions, against controlled conditions. From that perspective, the choice to remain at home was clearly the best option, in terms of protecting family and preventing harm. The severity of the storm is actually a greater factor of danger if we evacuated, than if we stayed.
Obviously, had we been on the coast, if we lived in something like a trailer or a wood-frame house, if our neighborhood was known for periodic flooding, then bugging out would be required, but in our condition, we were as secure or more in our home as we would be in any location we could reach for more than a hundred miles. While wind was a threat to consider, it was not the only factor, and the decision I made was the one which best protected my family. In other conditions, situations, or with different options, my choices would have been different. But I made my decision without emotional imbalance, without forgetting priorities and known history.
Just something to think about when looking at a hard decision someone else has to make. Know your options, what you can control and what is byond your control, and make your decision without panic.
Monday, September 26, 2005
Sunday, September 25, 2005
Houston
[H!] [O!] [U!] [S!] [T!] [O!] [N!]
As I begin this article, I will say at the outset that I am a Houstonian, and so may be prone to a certain bias in favor of my hometown. That said, I would contend that Houston has established a very good reputation by its works, earned through the character of its citizens.
I was already proud of Houston’s response to Katrina; where so many other cities were mouthing sympathy, Houston took the overwhelming majority of refugees from Katrina, and amazingly, had major shelters finding places to live and temporary work for victims before most Louisiana shelters had an accurate roster of people staying there. Houston provided more supplies, helped more people with shelter, relief, and assistance in finding family than any other city, and did it in less time and with less bureacracy than any other government entity. This led to praise for the Space City not only from other Americans, but also other countries.
This weekend, it happened again. As motorists found themselves stranded on Interstates 10, 45, and 59, residents in North Houston took it upon themselves to bring water, ice, and gasoline to them so they could continue their evacuation. My wife’s mother in Hong Kong saw such actions on the news there, and remarked to my wife about how generous and helpful Houstonians are.
I have complimented Mayor Bill White not only for his planning and cool head, but also a professional modesty which allowed people to do their jobs without undue pressure. I would note, however, the cooperation and community spirit for Houston in general, from Centerpoint getting 83% of the Greater Houston area back with power in less than a day, to City of Houston services getting traffic lights back in operation and countless signs repaired/replaced by Sunday morning, to area gas stations and grocery stores getting open by Sunday morning to not only resupply citizens in need, but also send the message of re-establishing a comforting routine. I also found a strong city-wide commitment to courtesy and order.
Last night is a good example. Around 9:40 PM, ABC News showed a helicopter shot of an HEB on Highway 6 which was pumping gas. My wife and I did a quick consult, and we decided to try to get some gas, as no one in our immediate area had been able to find a place with any to sell, and the tank was close to empty. When we got to the store however, we found a very long line of more than a hundred cars, and almost immediately after we got into line, a Sheriff came by and announced that there was no more gas to be had, and to go home.
As we were driving home, I took a smaller road home than the one we took over, and found my lane slowing then coming to a stop. There was a lane to our left, but I had a gut feeling I should stay where we were at, and sure enough, as time passed we began to inch forward, and a gas station appeared in the distance. What was interesting, was that the line stayed orderly, no one cutting in line and no one losing their temper. It took an hour in line, but we got our gas. The station stayed open to at least 11:30 PM, and served more than a hundred customers in the time I was waiting and watching. My point is, that without the need for law enforcement or anyone getting unruly a lot of people were able to get what they needed, because the store was open, staffed, stocked, and had a plan to get people what they needed. That was the story across all 600+ square miles of Houston, and that made a real difference in this event.
As I begin this article, I will say at the outset that I am a Houstonian, and so may be prone to a certain bias in favor of my hometown. That said, I would contend that Houston has established a very good reputation by its works, earned through the character of its citizens.
I was already proud of Houston’s response to Katrina; where so many other cities were mouthing sympathy, Houston took the overwhelming majority of refugees from Katrina, and amazingly, had major shelters finding places to live and temporary work for victims before most Louisiana shelters had an accurate roster of people staying there. Houston provided more supplies, helped more people with shelter, relief, and assistance in finding family than any other city, and did it in less time and with less bureacracy than any other government entity. This led to praise for the Space City not only from other Americans, but also other countries.
This weekend, it happened again. As motorists found themselves stranded on Interstates 10, 45, and 59, residents in North Houston took it upon themselves to bring water, ice, and gasoline to them so they could continue their evacuation. My wife’s mother in Hong Kong saw such actions on the news there, and remarked to my wife about how generous and helpful Houstonians are.
I have complimented Mayor Bill White not only for his planning and cool head, but also a professional modesty which allowed people to do their jobs without undue pressure. I would note, however, the cooperation and community spirit for Houston in general, from Centerpoint getting 83% of the Greater Houston area back with power in less than a day, to City of Houston services getting traffic lights back in operation and countless signs repaired/replaced by Sunday morning, to area gas stations and grocery stores getting open by Sunday morning to not only resupply citizens in need, but also send the message of re-establishing a comforting routine. I also found a strong city-wide commitment to courtesy and order.
Last night is a good example. Around 9:40 PM, ABC News showed a helicopter shot of an HEB on Highway 6 which was pumping gas. My wife and I did a quick consult, and we decided to try to get some gas, as no one in our immediate area had been able to find a place with any to sell, and the tank was close to empty. When we got to the store however, we found a very long line of more than a hundred cars, and almost immediately after we got into line, a Sheriff came by and announced that there was no more gas to be had, and to go home.
As we were driving home, I took a smaller road home than the one we took over, and found my lane slowing then coming to a stop. There was a lane to our left, but I had a gut feeling I should stay where we were at, and sure enough, as time passed we began to inch forward, and a gas station appeared in the distance. What was interesting, was that the line stayed orderly, no one cutting in line and no one losing their temper. It took an hour in line, but we got our gas. The station stayed open to at least 11:30 PM, and served more than a hundred customers in the time I was waiting and watching. My point is, that without the need for law enforcement or anyone getting unruly a lot of people were able to get what they needed, because the store was open, staffed, stocked, and had a plan to get people what they needed. That was the story across all 600+ square miles of Houston, and that made a real difference in this event.
Saturday, September 24, 2005
Logging Back In
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Power came back about 4:30 PM. I confess I indulged in a shower before re-assembling the computer and logging back in to report I am alive and well, though I need to find a gas station.
Gasoline is the big word for everyone right now. At the 5 PM Newscast, there were two (2) gasoline statons open for business and fueling up cars, at an average wait time of three hours for those in line. KHOU advised that if you were not already in line, they might well be out before you could get there. Houston remains the city which, two days after finishing the 2005 “Get Outta Town” marathon, is now the city of “Stay Where You Are”. Gas stations are expected to be closed until at least Monday or Tuesday throughout Houston, although FEMA (more on them in a moment) has sent rations of gasoline to locations along major roadways.
I feel like the guy in those movies who has a gun pointed at his chest, only to see the shooter turn and fire into the guy next to him. Louisiana got a lot of Rita, and East Texas got a lot more. Rita politely dropped her windspeeds from 175 mph sustained to just about 130 mph when she made shore, and she moved froma dead-on course for Galveston. Since Rita was so big, Houston still got hurricane-force winds and a fair bit of rain, but no real storm surge and a lot less damage than we expected.
I saw an interesting effect from Rita late yesterday. The sky was clear at sunrise, but clouds moved in around noon, and by 4 PM were clearly threatening. Around 7:30 PM, the setting sun turned the cloudscape golden, a stunning sight which seemed like a divine promise of protection. Of course, it was overcome in about 20 minutes by black clouds swiftly moving in, so that could be taken the other way, but it was a fascinating sight, not unlike the green skies I have seen just before a tornado hits.
We kept waiting for monster winds, but the sustained winds were fairly controlled, not much worse than the tree-shakers we get every couple weeks or so. Of course, those storms don’t last for fifteen hours, but even so, the winds didn’t seem too bad, and even the gusts brought down only a few trees and signs in the neighborhood; the building proved to be just the rock we hoped it would be. All the streetlights are still out, and no one has gas,but we’re good. And Centerpoint got the lights back on before nightfall.
Now, I will be annoying some of the Red-Ticket-Only contingent, the ones who maintain that we are morally obliged to vote a straight-ticket, but I have to say that Mayor Bill White, a life-long Democrat even if he did his best to keep that quiet when he ran for Mayor, has done an outstanding job in this crisis, especially in avoiding finger-pointing for things like the gas shortage, and in asking Houstonians to use “common sense” early in the week in deciding whether to evacuate and in cooperating to help stranded motorists and in planning actions with state and federal officials. White, very unlike Nagin, got in touch with state and federal officials early on and made all the necessary approvals and requests to get supplies deployed and responders on the same page. I will writing more on Bill White later this week but for now I have to say that, Democrat or not, he’s earned my respect and my vote. I will give Governor Perry a chance to redeem himself as recovery unfolds, but he was a moron to publicly promise that Houston gas stations would get gas by Friday evening; it never happened and he plain looked like an idiot for promising what we all knew would never happen.
Now about FEMA: FEMA had officials in Houston Thursday, in close cooperation with the Red Cross and Salvation Army, and more importantly, with office space specifically set up by the Mayor. By Friday night, a convoy of eighteen-wheelers was bringing medical and food supplies to the 49 Red Cross shelters in the greater Houston area, ahead of the storm. It is noteworthy as well that in about the same time that it took for New Orleans to get about 200,000 people out of New Orleans, more than three million people evacuated the greater Houston area. Think about that, really.
Well, I gotta get going; Jagan needs dinner and I want to find a Coke machine.
Power came back about 4:30 PM. I confess I indulged in a shower before re-assembling the computer and logging back in to report I am alive and well, though I need to find a gas station.
Gasoline is the big word for everyone right now. At the 5 PM Newscast, there were two (2) gasoline statons open for business and fueling up cars, at an average wait time of three hours for those in line. KHOU advised that if you were not already in line, they might well be out before you could get there. Houston remains the city which, two days after finishing the 2005 “Get Outta Town” marathon, is now the city of “Stay Where You Are”. Gas stations are expected to be closed until at least Monday or Tuesday throughout Houston, although FEMA (more on them in a moment) has sent rations of gasoline to locations along major roadways.
I feel like the guy in those movies who has a gun pointed at his chest, only to see the shooter turn and fire into the guy next to him. Louisiana got a lot of Rita, and East Texas got a lot more. Rita politely dropped her windspeeds from 175 mph sustained to just about 130 mph when she made shore, and she moved froma dead-on course for Galveston. Since Rita was so big, Houston still got hurricane-force winds and a fair bit of rain, but no real storm surge and a lot less damage than we expected.
I saw an interesting effect from Rita late yesterday. The sky was clear at sunrise, but clouds moved in around noon, and by 4 PM were clearly threatening. Around 7:30 PM, the setting sun turned the cloudscape golden, a stunning sight which seemed like a divine promise of protection. Of course, it was overcome in about 20 minutes by black clouds swiftly moving in, so that could be taken the other way, but it was a fascinating sight, not unlike the green skies I have seen just before a tornado hits.
We kept waiting for monster winds, but the sustained winds were fairly controlled, not much worse than the tree-shakers we get every couple weeks or so. Of course, those storms don’t last for fifteen hours, but even so, the winds didn’t seem too bad, and even the gusts brought down only a few trees and signs in the neighborhood; the building proved to be just the rock we hoped it would be. All the streetlights are still out, and no one has gas,but we’re good. And Centerpoint got the lights back on before nightfall.
Now, I will be annoying some of the Red-Ticket-Only contingent, the ones who maintain that we are morally obliged to vote a straight-ticket, but I have to say that Mayor Bill White, a life-long Democrat even if he did his best to keep that quiet when he ran for Mayor, has done an outstanding job in this crisis, especially in avoiding finger-pointing for things like the gas shortage, and in asking Houstonians to use “common sense” early in the week in deciding whether to evacuate and in cooperating to help stranded motorists and in planning actions with state and federal officials. White, very unlike Nagin, got in touch with state and federal officials early on and made all the necessary approvals and requests to get supplies deployed and responders on the same page. I will writing more on Bill White later this week but for now I have to say that, Democrat or not, he’s earned my respect and my vote. I will give Governor Perry a chance to redeem himself as recovery unfolds, but he was a moron to publicly promise that Houston gas stations would get gas by Friday evening; it never happened and he plain looked like an idiot for promising what we all knew would never happen.
Now about FEMA: FEMA had officials in Houston Thursday, in close cooperation with the Red Cross and Salvation Army, and more importantly, with office space specifically set up by the Mayor. By Friday night, a convoy of eighteen-wheelers was bringing medical and food supplies to the 49 Red Cross shelters in the greater Houston area, ahead of the storm. It is noteworthy as well that in about the same time that it took for New Orleans to get about 200,000 people out of New Orleans, more than three million people evacuated the greater Houston area. Think about that, really.
Well, I gotta get going; Jagan needs dinner and I want to find a Coke machine.
Friday, September 23, 2005
Shutting Down
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Storm clouds moving in, wind gusts up to 40 mph now.
Closing down until the storm surge passes.
Storm clouds moving in, wind gusts up to 40 mph now.
Closing down until the storm surge passes.
A Chat With A Witch, about a Really Mean Lady
UUUUUUUUUUUUUU
I was walking around today, trying to think of anything I might have missed in preparing to ride out Hurricane Rita, when a figure in black caught my eye. Looking up, I saw a woman in black riding a broomstick, and peering down with a worried look. I waved at her, and she came down to the ground.
“You look lost”, I said to the woman. “Can I help you?”
“Maybe”, replied the woman. “I’m a witch, and I’m trying to find a little brat and her dog.”
“That sounds familiar.” I remarked.
“Yeah, I know, I know”, shrugged the woman. “Gerty Nightfall, Wicked Witch of the West.”
“Like in the Wizard of Oz?” I asked.
“Kind of, yeah”, agreed Gerty. “That movie didn’t really catch the whole story, you know.”
“Really?” I asked
“Oh yeah”, assured Gerty. “Like that brat Dorothy. To hear people talk, you’d think she was a sweet innocent little girl, but in reality she’s a racist murderer.”
“That sounds harsh.” I said.
“Hey, her mom started the ‘tradition’ by dropping a house on my great-aunt. And ever since, it’s been a running game of ‘kill the witch’. I could sure use a Harry Potter on my side, even a Voldemort.”
“I guess. So, what are you doing in Houston?” I asked her.
“Houston?” repeated Gerty, clearly surprised. “I thought I saw storm clouds, like a tornado coming.”
“Umm, no.” I answered. “Those storm clouds are Hurricane Rita.”
“Hurricane?” asked Gerty. “So, no houses being picked up and moved to another land?”
“More like winds tearing down houses and land being turned into instant lakefronts.” I answered.
“Ow. Sounds mean, this Rita.” said Gerty.
“She is that.” I said. “Six hundred miles across, winds moving faster than some aircraft can fly, and she can’t make up her mind.”
“Indecisive? How do you mean?”
“Well, Rita was supposed to be heading for Matagorda, then Brownsville, then Corpus Christi, then Matagorda again, then straight for Galveston, now it’s nudging more towards Beaumont.”
“So some of your coast could be OK?”
“Not really. The storm is so big, pretty much the whole state will take a hit, it’s just a question of who gets the worst of it.”
“I get it.” said Gerty. “So why are you sticking around? Are you that tough, or that stupid?”
“I’ve been hearing that”, I replied. “It really comes down to three factors, which people don’t often see unless they have to face the decision themselves.
“First, have you seen the traffic jams? By the time my wife and I got off work yesterday, the roads heading North were jammed so tight, that the time to get out of Harris County was in the 12-13 hour range. Also, we couldn’t get gas for the CRV; stations were running out and the ones which still had gas Wednesday had lines dozens of cars deep. We decided driving out was not feasible.”
“So that’s what that was.” muttered Gerty. “I thought it was just a bunch of really big snakes, sleeping and stinking in the heat. What about catching a flight?”
“I can’t ride a broom, Gerty” I said.
“Ha ha” said Gerty. “Come on, you’ve got airports.”
“Yes, but we can’t get there, the only way to get to any of them is to drive the same roads that are already jammed.” I explained. “And anyway, everything that can fly out has pretty much already left; can’t blame the airlines for not wanting to park a few thirty-million dollar planes out where the wind will rip them up. So that’s not really an option.”
“You said there were three reasons” reminded Gerty.
“Yes.” I replied. “Leaving town would be stressful and expensive, no matter how we did it-”
“And staying for the storm is fun?” interrupted Gerty.
“No fun, but we have to come back and clean up sooner or later” I replied. “If we had left town, we’d be spending hundreds of dollars we can’t easily spare, to sit in a hotel or shelter somewhere, stressed out while we worry, and then afterwards we have to get back and clean up, and probably do repairs. It just prolongs the stress, increases the cost, and makes more problems. Also, there is a real danger of looting.”
“OK, but isn’t your family more important?” asked Gerty.
“Absolutely.” I answered. “And that’s where the third reason kicks in. Houston is a huge city, covering about six hundred square miles. About four and a half million people live in Houston and the surrounding areas. Throw in another hundred thousand or so fleeing from Galveston and other coastal counties who are heading North through Houston, and you have a lot of people driving on some very limited roadspace, and with no way to refuel them. It doesn’t matter what time you leave, or which highway you take, you’re going to run out of patience, fuel, and options if you didn’t leave early Wednesday or if you didn’t get lucky. There are a bunch of people who went on the long drive, only to end up having to come back home, only more tired and less prepared than when they left. Next to that, staying home and readying supplies looks very smart.”
“I guess”, said Gerty. “Well, good luck with the storm.”
“And good luck to you with Dorothy” I said, as Gerty prepared to fly away.
“And her little dog, too” she chuckled as she left.
It was only much later that I wondered about the monkeys...
I was walking around today, trying to think of anything I might have missed in preparing to ride out Hurricane Rita, when a figure in black caught my eye. Looking up, I saw a woman in black riding a broomstick, and peering down with a worried look. I waved at her, and she came down to the ground.
“You look lost”, I said to the woman. “Can I help you?”
“Maybe”, replied the woman. “I’m a witch, and I’m trying to find a little brat and her dog.”
“That sounds familiar.” I remarked.
“Yeah, I know, I know”, shrugged the woman. “Gerty Nightfall, Wicked Witch of the West.”
“Like in the Wizard of Oz?” I asked.
“Kind of, yeah”, agreed Gerty. “That movie didn’t really catch the whole story, you know.”
“Really?” I asked
“Oh yeah”, assured Gerty. “Like that brat Dorothy. To hear people talk, you’d think she was a sweet innocent little girl, but in reality she’s a racist murderer.”
“That sounds harsh.” I said.
“Hey, her mom started the ‘tradition’ by dropping a house on my great-aunt. And ever since, it’s been a running game of ‘kill the witch’. I could sure use a Harry Potter on my side, even a Voldemort.”
“I guess. So, what are you doing in Houston?” I asked her.
“Houston?” repeated Gerty, clearly surprised. “I thought I saw storm clouds, like a tornado coming.”
“Umm, no.” I answered. “Those storm clouds are Hurricane Rita.”
“Hurricane?” asked Gerty. “So, no houses being picked up and moved to another land?”
“More like winds tearing down houses and land being turned into instant lakefronts.” I answered.
“Ow. Sounds mean, this Rita.” said Gerty.
“She is that.” I said. “Six hundred miles across, winds moving faster than some aircraft can fly, and she can’t make up her mind.”
“Indecisive? How do you mean?”
“Well, Rita was supposed to be heading for Matagorda, then Brownsville, then Corpus Christi, then Matagorda again, then straight for Galveston, now it’s nudging more towards Beaumont.”
“So some of your coast could be OK?”
“Not really. The storm is so big, pretty much the whole state will take a hit, it’s just a question of who gets the worst of it.”
“I get it.” said Gerty. “So why are you sticking around? Are you that tough, or that stupid?”
“I’ve been hearing that”, I replied. “It really comes down to three factors, which people don’t often see unless they have to face the decision themselves.
“First, have you seen the traffic jams? By the time my wife and I got off work yesterday, the roads heading North were jammed so tight, that the time to get out of Harris County was in the 12-13 hour range. Also, we couldn’t get gas for the CRV; stations were running out and the ones which still had gas Wednesday had lines dozens of cars deep. We decided driving out was not feasible.”
“So that’s what that was.” muttered Gerty. “I thought it was just a bunch of really big snakes, sleeping and stinking in the heat. What about catching a flight?”
“I can’t ride a broom, Gerty” I said.
“Ha ha” said Gerty. “Come on, you’ve got airports.”
“Yes, but we can’t get there, the only way to get to any of them is to drive the same roads that are already jammed.” I explained. “And anyway, everything that can fly out has pretty much already left; can’t blame the airlines for not wanting to park a few thirty-million dollar planes out where the wind will rip them up. So that’s not really an option.”
“You said there were three reasons” reminded Gerty.
“Yes.” I replied. “Leaving town would be stressful and expensive, no matter how we did it-”
“And staying for the storm is fun?” interrupted Gerty.
“No fun, but we have to come back and clean up sooner or later” I replied. “If we had left town, we’d be spending hundreds of dollars we can’t easily spare, to sit in a hotel or shelter somewhere, stressed out while we worry, and then afterwards we have to get back and clean up, and probably do repairs. It just prolongs the stress, increases the cost, and makes more problems. Also, there is a real danger of looting.”
“OK, but isn’t your family more important?” asked Gerty.
“Absolutely.” I answered. “And that’s where the third reason kicks in. Houston is a huge city, covering about six hundred square miles. About four and a half million people live in Houston and the surrounding areas. Throw in another hundred thousand or so fleeing from Galveston and other coastal counties who are heading North through Houston, and you have a lot of people driving on some very limited roadspace, and with no way to refuel them. It doesn’t matter what time you leave, or which highway you take, you’re going to run out of patience, fuel, and options if you didn’t leave early Wednesday or if you didn’t get lucky. There are a bunch of people who went on the long drive, only to end up having to come back home, only more tired and less prepared than when they left. Next to that, staying home and readying supplies looks very smart.”
“I guess”, said Gerty. “Well, good luck with the storm.”
“And good luck to you with Dorothy” I said, as Gerty prepared to fly away.
“And her little dog, too” she chuckled as she left.
It was only much later that I wondered about the monkeys...
Thursday, September 22, 2005
City In The Crosshairs
[-] [+] [-]
Thursday, September 22, 2005. Houston is fast becoming a ghost town. With the evidence of Katrina’s pain and misery unloaded on the people who stayed in New Orleans, many Houstonians didn’t have to be prodded very hard to evacuate. Of course, the rush to get out of town led to huge lines at gas stations, empty store shelves, and chaos on the major northbound routes. There are over four million people living in the greater Houston area, easily nine times the number of people in the greater New Orleans area. Given the comparison in available roads, notice before the storm hits, and the wind force of the relative storms, Houston is going to have just as hard a time getting everyone out as New Orleans did. And, like New Orleans, there will be many who are unable or unwilling to leave, like my own family. We do not have the finances necessary to take shelter in a North Texas hotel, we do not trust the police or neighborhood to prevent our apartment from being burglarized if we leave town for any length of time, and in any case, the long drive North before the storm, and the return later to deal with the consequences would only add to the stress and fatigue before we got down to the task of cleaning up and repair. So we have stored up provisions, prepared escape plans for worst-case conditions, and readied ourselves for both what we expect to see happen, and for possibilities of every magnitude. My employer took the precaution of closing early for the weekend, so we will have all of Thursday and Friday to get ready for Rita’s landfall. Our apartment is not in a flood plain, the one car we have remaining is a relatively high-clearance SUV, we have several cases of water, a fair amount of dry and canned food, a decent first-aid kit, candles, and a small butane stove. The apartment building itself is a heavy brick building, ugly but sturdy, and we live on the second floor. As long as the power stays on, I will blog updates on the Hurricane. At the moment, Rita is a full-Category 5 Hurricane, the 3rd-strongest storm ever tracked, headed on a course directly for the Galveston Bay and Houston. We expect to start seeing storm effects Friday morning, with landfall expected around 1 AM Saturday morning.
The most likely scenarios for Rita all include heavy rain and high winds; the only question is really how much flooding, how high the wind gusts will be in major metropolitan areas, and how far inland Rita will be able to do catastrophic damage. Galveston, both the city and the county, will be in for a really hard hit, just like Lake Jackson and the rest of the Texas Gulf coast. Buses and other means have been used to move thousands of people already, and the rescue crews and shelters are all in place and have several plans and contingency options ready for whatever comes.
What I’m saying is that there are really three zones of Hurricane impact; the Gulf Coast cities, the Houston metropolitan area, and inland Texas. The areas of greatest danger have had mandatory evacuations begin already, including Seabrook, Galveston, Clear Lake, Dickinson, LaPorte, Corpus Christi, Nassau Bay, Hitchcock, Victoria, Wharton, Pasadena, Baytown, and all the way down the coastline. The Houston metropolitan area is actually three sub-areas - downtown with high-rise buildings and a lot of glass, low-lying areas to the South, and a lot of land which is going to get hit with high winds and flooding to some extent, but which is sixty miles from the coast, so there will be effectively nothing like the storm surge which hit New Orleans. The main concern is the fact that Houston is a very decentralized city, so that people who are trapped in flooded areas or by wind destruction will be difficult to reach. City officials warn that 911 services will seriously degraded during the time the Hurricane is passing through Houston, and the sheer size of the storm (more than 600 miles across at this writing, with sustained 170 mph winds) means that it’s fifteen mph pace of approach will take around twenty hours or so to make its way through the city, so there will be literally a full day of high winds and heavy rainfall. According to KHOU-TV, around a million and a half Houstonians have or are evacuating through this morning, generally from the areas with flood history. TXDOT has begun to reverse inbound lanes on major highways and toll roads to outbound traffic only, to improve the flow of traffic out of town. Additional deliveries of gasoline to stations is planned for today, to provide fuel for the evacuees. Medical evacuations began late Tuesday evening, so that the most critical cases were out of town before Mayor White announced the voluntary evacuation stage.
Houston is also seeing traffic from the South, as coastal areas evacuate through Houston to reach inland destinations. This is another reason for the congestion, as well as the heavy gasoline consumption. Many evacuees from Galveston and the coast were nearly out of gas when they got to Houston, creating intense demand for the limited supplies by both Houstonians and through traffic. In addition, owners and employees of many stations are themselves evacuating, further reducing the supply. At the moment, the supply of gasoline has definitely been the biggest problem so far. Most of us would be happy if that were the only big problem from this storm.
Thursday, September 22, 2005. Houston is fast becoming a ghost town. With the evidence of Katrina’s pain and misery unloaded on the people who stayed in New Orleans, many Houstonians didn’t have to be prodded very hard to evacuate. Of course, the rush to get out of town led to huge lines at gas stations, empty store shelves, and chaos on the major northbound routes. There are over four million people living in the greater Houston area, easily nine times the number of people in the greater New Orleans area. Given the comparison in available roads, notice before the storm hits, and the wind force of the relative storms, Houston is going to have just as hard a time getting everyone out as New Orleans did. And, like New Orleans, there will be many who are unable or unwilling to leave, like my own family. We do not have the finances necessary to take shelter in a North Texas hotel, we do not trust the police or neighborhood to prevent our apartment from being burglarized if we leave town for any length of time, and in any case, the long drive North before the storm, and the return later to deal with the consequences would only add to the stress and fatigue before we got down to the task of cleaning up and repair. So we have stored up provisions, prepared escape plans for worst-case conditions, and readied ourselves for both what we expect to see happen, and for possibilities of every magnitude. My employer took the precaution of closing early for the weekend, so we will have all of Thursday and Friday to get ready for Rita’s landfall. Our apartment is not in a flood plain, the one car we have remaining is a relatively high-clearance SUV, we have several cases of water, a fair amount of dry and canned food, a decent first-aid kit, candles, and a small butane stove. The apartment building itself is a heavy brick building, ugly but sturdy, and we live on the second floor. As long as the power stays on, I will blog updates on the Hurricane. At the moment, Rita is a full-Category 5 Hurricane, the 3rd-strongest storm ever tracked, headed on a course directly for the Galveston Bay and Houston. We expect to start seeing storm effects Friday morning, with landfall expected around 1 AM Saturday morning.
The most likely scenarios for Rita all include heavy rain and high winds; the only question is really how much flooding, how high the wind gusts will be in major metropolitan areas, and how far inland Rita will be able to do catastrophic damage. Galveston, both the city and the county, will be in for a really hard hit, just like Lake Jackson and the rest of the Texas Gulf coast. Buses and other means have been used to move thousands of people already, and the rescue crews and shelters are all in place and have several plans and contingency options ready for whatever comes.
What I’m saying is that there are really three zones of Hurricane impact; the Gulf Coast cities, the Houston metropolitan area, and inland Texas. The areas of greatest danger have had mandatory evacuations begin already, including Seabrook, Galveston, Clear Lake, Dickinson, LaPorte, Corpus Christi, Nassau Bay, Hitchcock, Victoria, Wharton, Pasadena, Baytown, and all the way down the coastline. The Houston metropolitan area is actually three sub-areas - downtown with high-rise buildings and a lot of glass, low-lying areas to the South, and a lot of land which is going to get hit with high winds and flooding to some extent, but which is sixty miles from the coast, so there will be effectively nothing like the storm surge which hit New Orleans. The main concern is the fact that Houston is a very decentralized city, so that people who are trapped in flooded areas or by wind destruction will be difficult to reach. City officials warn that 911 services will seriously degraded during the time the Hurricane is passing through Houston, and the sheer size of the storm (more than 600 miles across at this writing, with sustained 170 mph winds) means that it’s fifteen mph pace of approach will take around twenty hours or so to make its way through the city, so there will be literally a full day of high winds and heavy rainfall. According to KHOU-TV, around a million and a half Houstonians have or are evacuating through this morning, generally from the areas with flood history. TXDOT has begun to reverse inbound lanes on major highways and toll roads to outbound traffic only, to improve the flow of traffic out of town. Additional deliveries of gasoline to stations is planned for today, to provide fuel for the evacuees. Medical evacuations began late Tuesday evening, so that the most critical cases were out of town before Mayor White announced the voluntary evacuation stage.
Houston is also seeing traffic from the South, as coastal areas evacuate through Houston to reach inland destinations. This is another reason for the congestion, as well as the heavy gasoline consumption. Many evacuees from Galveston and the coast were nearly out of gas when they got to Houston, creating intense demand for the limited supplies by both Houstonians and through traffic. In addition, owners and employees of many stations are themselves evacuating, further reducing the supply. At the moment, the supply of gasoline has definitely been the biggest problem so far. Most of us would be happy if that were the only big problem from this storm.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Outrageous - Class Warfare a la Reader’s Digest
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The October edition of Reader’s Digest is out and with it, another in a series of outrageous injustices - or so it may seem, if you don’t look at the details or pay much attention to the writer’s hidden motive. The writer of this particular piece, titled “the $54,000 an Hour Executive”, is Michael Crowley, whom Reader’s Digest acknowledges in rather fine print after the article, is also Senior Editor at The New Republic. That is, he sees things with his own perspective and agenda, and while this is valid for a writer, it’s just a touch unfair that Reader’s Digest does not present this fact plainly, at the start. The reader is led to believe that Mr. Crowley speaks from Middle America, and so is misled from the start.
The article Mr. Crowley put out this month is a harangue against CEO pay. Don’t get me wrong; there are a lot of overpaid people in the world, and more than once I have looked at this case or that and wondered “What were they thinking?”, about the people who approved such extravagant compensation. But the essence of Crowley’s article is based on a very false premise; that wages and compensation should be controlled, that if someone makes more money than the average person thinks is appropriate, that he should be denied his wealth. That, friends, is nothing but forced redistribution of wealth, the stuff of Lenin and Stalin and Chairman Mao. As un-American as anything we’ve seen since the Nazis thought it would be cool to impose their will on anyone they could control. I am not saying that Michael Crowley is a communist or wishes to overthrow the American tradition of government, but simply that he has done a poor job of thinking his complaint through. He’s done a poor job, but broadcast his ill-considered thoughts on a very significant stage. That must be rebuked.
Sure, some CEOs make a ton of money. But the guys who garner these deals do so through negotiations; no one is forced to make the deal they do, and Mr. Crowley leaves off the success stories, in large part because there are too many CEOs who do their jobs with integrity and modesty; they don’t fit the picture Crowley wants to sell, so he leaves them off, but still pretends he’s showing the matter cleanly.
Consider professional sports, those fortunate few who are paid millions to play games. A basketball, football, or baseball player who is able to drive his name and reputation can make more than a hundred million dollars before he sees his first grey hair. Next to pro sports, the money paid to the average CEO is frankly paltry. Then there are doctors and lawyers, who can make millions of dollars off a single case; why doesn’t Mr. Crowley consider that a conflict of interest? Authors who find an audience can become rich, even though they do not hire employees, produce tangible commodities, or improve the efficiency of any business or industry. Shall we tell Michael Crichton or J.K. Rowling that they are not entitled to the results of their efforts? For that matter, it seems that Mr. Crowley’s annual earnings are several times my own, even though I work just as many hours, just as hard, and with just as much ingenuity and creativity. Perhaps Mr. Crowley should, in keeping with his sense of fairness, share his salary with me? Somehow, I doubt his sense of fairness extends to personal responsibility.
The October edition of Reader’s Digest is out and with it, another in a series of outrageous injustices - or so it may seem, if you don’t look at the details or pay much attention to the writer’s hidden motive. The writer of this particular piece, titled “the $54,000 an Hour Executive”, is Michael Crowley, whom Reader’s Digest acknowledges in rather fine print after the article, is also Senior Editor at The New Republic. That is, he sees things with his own perspective and agenda, and while this is valid for a writer, it’s just a touch unfair that Reader’s Digest does not present this fact plainly, at the start. The reader is led to believe that Mr. Crowley speaks from Middle America, and so is misled from the start.
The article Mr. Crowley put out this month is a harangue against CEO pay. Don’t get me wrong; there are a lot of overpaid people in the world, and more than once I have looked at this case or that and wondered “What were they thinking?”, about the people who approved such extravagant compensation. But the essence of Crowley’s article is based on a very false premise; that wages and compensation should be controlled, that if someone makes more money than the average person thinks is appropriate, that he should be denied his wealth. That, friends, is nothing but forced redistribution of wealth, the stuff of Lenin and Stalin and Chairman Mao. As un-American as anything we’ve seen since the Nazis thought it would be cool to impose their will on anyone they could control. I am not saying that Michael Crowley is a communist or wishes to overthrow the American tradition of government, but simply that he has done a poor job of thinking his complaint through. He’s done a poor job, but broadcast his ill-considered thoughts on a very significant stage. That must be rebuked.
Sure, some CEOs make a ton of money. But the guys who garner these deals do so through negotiations; no one is forced to make the deal they do, and Mr. Crowley leaves off the success stories, in large part because there are too many CEOs who do their jobs with integrity and modesty; they don’t fit the picture Crowley wants to sell, so he leaves them off, but still pretends he’s showing the matter cleanly.
Consider professional sports, those fortunate few who are paid millions to play games. A basketball, football, or baseball player who is able to drive his name and reputation can make more than a hundred million dollars before he sees his first grey hair. Next to pro sports, the money paid to the average CEO is frankly paltry. Then there are doctors and lawyers, who can make millions of dollars off a single case; why doesn’t Mr. Crowley consider that a conflict of interest? Authors who find an audience can become rich, even though they do not hire employees, produce tangible commodities, or improve the efficiency of any business or industry. Shall we tell Michael Crichton or J.K. Rowling that they are not entitled to the results of their efforts? For that matter, it seems that Mr. Crowley’s annual earnings are several times my own, even though I work just as many hours, just as hard, and with just as much ingenuity and creativity. Perhaps Mr. Crowley should, in keeping with his sense of fairness, share his salary with me? Somehow, I doubt his sense of fairness extends to personal responsibility.
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Republicans: By the Polls
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Yesterday, I noted the numbers for the Donkeyfied Party, today I look at the Pachyderms.
Again using the numbers from Polling Report I took a gander to see how the Grand Old Party sails in the American eye. Here are the numbers, using the same polls:
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll says that 42% of Americans viewed the Republican Party as “Very Positive” or “Somewhat Positive” in January 1997. That remained at 42% in January 2000, and only climbed to 44% just after the 2000 election. April 2003 saw the Republicans rise slightly to 49%, and in September 2005 the Republicans are down to 37%. Compared to the Democrats, the Republicans in this poll started 5 points lower, pulled ahead in 2003, and now are even with the Democrats.
Then there’s the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. In October 1997, the Republicans held a 50% “Favorable Rating”, reached 61% Favorable in January 2002, and in July 2005 owned a 46% rating (no newer data). During Bush’s time in office, the Republican Party has generally been above 50% Approval in this poll.
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll has a shorter timeline, starting in December 2000 at 54% Approval (10 points below the Democrats), but rising to 63% in January 2002, and sloping back down to 49% in June 2005, their lowest rating since ABC started tracking. This represents an eight-point gain in that time-frame.
The CBS News/New York Times Poll showed the Republicans at 41% Favorable in June 1999 (10 points behind the Democrats), rising as high as 58% in January 2002 (even with the Democrats), and staying near or above 50% since 2003. Their July 2004 number (last report) sat at 49%. This represents an eight-point gain for the party, and the absence of recent readings is interesting.
And finally, the Pew Research Center showed the Republicans at 52% “Very Favorable” or “Mostly Favorable” in January 1997 (8 points behind the Democrats), and as high as 59% in December 2002, their most recent report (5 points higher than the Democrats). The absence of recent data is interesting, and the thirteen-point gain by the Republicans is in line with a strong increase in self-identified Republican voters.
Note that only the NBC/WSJ Poll has asked about people’s opinion of either Democrats or Republicans in anything like recent weeks.
Well.
Well.
Well.
Yesterday, I noted the numbers for the Donkeyfied Party, today I look at the Pachyderms.
Again using the numbers from Polling Report I took a gander to see how the Grand Old Party sails in the American eye. Here are the numbers, using the same polls:
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll says that 42% of Americans viewed the Republican Party as “Very Positive” or “Somewhat Positive” in January 1997. That remained at 42% in January 2000, and only climbed to 44% just after the 2000 election. April 2003 saw the Republicans rise slightly to 49%, and in September 2005 the Republicans are down to 37%. Compared to the Democrats, the Republicans in this poll started 5 points lower, pulled ahead in 2003, and now are even with the Democrats.
Then there’s the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. In October 1997, the Republicans held a 50% “Favorable Rating”, reached 61% Favorable in January 2002, and in July 2005 owned a 46% rating (no newer data). During Bush’s time in office, the Republican Party has generally been above 50% Approval in this poll.
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll has a shorter timeline, starting in December 2000 at 54% Approval (10 points below the Democrats), but rising to 63% in January 2002, and sloping back down to 49% in June 2005, their lowest rating since ABC started tracking. This represents an eight-point gain in that time-frame.
The CBS News/New York Times Poll showed the Republicans at 41% Favorable in June 1999 (10 points behind the Democrats), rising as high as 58% in January 2002 (even with the Democrats), and staying near or above 50% since 2003. Their July 2004 number (last report) sat at 49%. This represents an eight-point gain for the party, and the absence of recent readings is interesting.
And finally, the Pew Research Center showed the Republicans at 52% “Very Favorable” or “Mostly Favorable” in January 1997 (8 points behind the Democrats), and as high as 59% in December 2002, their most recent report (5 points higher than the Democrats). The absence of recent data is interesting, and the thirteen-point gain by the Republicans is in line with a strong increase in self-identified Republican voters.
Note that only the NBC/WSJ Poll has asked about people’s opinion of either Democrats or Republicans in anything like recent weeks.
Well.
Well.
Well.
Monday, September 19, 2005
Democrats: By the Polls
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I love Polling Report. If you want to see what’s what on a topic in an opinion poll, you can’t do better than visit Polling Report, who present side-by-side polls to show the consensus without a word of their own preference.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Democrats, and I have to admit, if these guys had been steering the Titanic, they’d have aimed for the iceberg, but anyway. I thought it might be interesting to see what people think of the party that used to bring us men like Truman and John Kennedy, and now has to settle for Howard Dean and Ted Kennedy. Here's what the numbers say:
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll says that 47% of Americans viewed the Democratic Party as “Very Positive” or “Somewhat Positive” in January 1997. That rose to 50% in January 2000, but was down again to 46% just after the 2000 election. April 2003 saw the Democrats drop to 36%, and in September 2005 the Democrats are at 37%.
Then there’s the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. In October 1997, the Democrats held a 54% “Favorable Rating”, and in July 2005 own a 52% rating (no newer data). But the Democrats, who reached 61% approval in January 2000, have also been as low as 46%, that mark in February 2005. Before the midterm elections the Democrats were generally above 50% in the this poll, after 2002 generally below it.
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll has a shorter timeline, starting in December 2000 at 64% Approval, but dropping down to 51% in June 2005, their lowest rating since ABC started tracking.
The CBS News/New York Times Poll showed the Democrats at 51% Favorable in June 1999, rising as high as 58% in January 2002, and dropping as low as 46% in May 2003. Their July 2005 number sat at 54%.
And finally, the Pew Research Center showed the Democrats at 60% “Very Favorable” or “Mostly Favorable”, as high as 61% in June 1997, falling as low as 52% in August 1997. Their last reading was 54% in December 2002, no data after that.
Note that only the NBC/WSJ Poll has asked about people’s opinion of Democrats since July.
/\/\/
I love Polling Report. If you want to see what’s what on a topic in an opinion poll, you can’t do better than visit Polling Report, who present side-by-side polls to show the consensus without a word of their own preference.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Democrats, and I have to admit, if these guys had been steering the Titanic, they’d have aimed for the iceberg, but anyway. I thought it might be interesting to see what people think of the party that used to bring us men like Truman and John Kennedy, and now has to settle for Howard Dean and Ted Kennedy. Here's what the numbers say:
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll says that 47% of Americans viewed the Democratic Party as “Very Positive” or “Somewhat Positive” in January 1997. That rose to 50% in January 2000, but was down again to 46% just after the 2000 election. April 2003 saw the Democrats drop to 36%, and in September 2005 the Democrats are at 37%.
Then there’s the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. In October 1997, the Democrats held a 54% “Favorable Rating”, and in July 2005 own a 52% rating (no newer data). But the Democrats, who reached 61% approval in January 2000, have also been as low as 46%, that mark in February 2005. Before the midterm elections the Democrats were generally above 50% in the this poll, after 2002 generally below it.
The ABC News/Washington Post Poll has a shorter timeline, starting in December 2000 at 64% Approval, but dropping down to 51% in June 2005, their lowest rating since ABC started tracking.
The CBS News/New York Times Poll showed the Democrats at 51% Favorable in June 1999, rising as high as 58% in January 2002, and dropping as low as 46% in May 2003. Their July 2005 number sat at 54%.
And finally, the Pew Research Center showed the Democrats at 60% “Very Favorable” or “Mostly Favorable”, as high as 61% in June 1997, falling as low as 52% in August 1997. Their last reading was 54% in December 2002, no data after that.
Note that only the NBC/WSJ Poll has asked about people’s opinion of Democrats since July.
Sunday, September 18, 2005
The Hidden Secret of Albus Dumbledore
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It’s really a mark of how great J.K. Rowling has mastered her craft, that legions of fans are arguing for weeks on end about whether Severus Snape is a loyal but misunderstood servant of Light and Justice, or else a slimy traitor who should not only be killed in the final book if there is justice, but in an especially prolonged and painfull manner. I should say right here that if by this point you are a fan of the “Harry Potter” series, but have not yet finished the “Half-Blood Prince”, this article would be a ‘spoiler’, so you might want to stop here. Also, if you are not a fan of Harry Potter, or if the name Harry Potter rings no bells, this article will hold little value to you.
With that said, readers of HBP (as the 6th book is usually dubbed in shorthand) are appalled to learn about the death of Albus Dumbledore, Headmaster at Hogwarts School and Harry Potter’s mentor. If the events of the book depict matters clearly, it also happens that Severus Snape, a teacher at Hogwarts specifically protected under Dumbledore’s trust, delivered the kiling blow with a forbidden curse. Snape was last seen fleeing the school, Death Eaters and snotty bully Draco Malfoy in tow. As a result, all sorts of debates have begun concerning the character of Snape’s heart and soul, and more to the point, predictions about what is to come in the pronounced finale to the best-selling series. The essential point comes down to a critical question: Was it Snape’s idea that Dumbledore, or was it actually Dumbledore himself? There seems to be strong support for either position, but I have found an early indicator of Dumbledore’s intentions along this line of thought.
First things first, and by that I mean that a lot of good information can be found in the first book, “Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone” (American title under Scholastic publisher; all references in this article will be under the American edition), the shorthand for the title is SS. Anyway, the very first words spoken about our man Dumbledore come from Professor Minerva McGonagall, who tells Dumbledore that the only reason Voldemort has any powers that Dumbledore does not, is because Dumbledore is too “noble” (page 11). That significant word is reinforced througout the series, so it strikes me that we should key on it.
Another early reference to Dumbledore shows up when Harry meets Ron Weasley on the train to Hogwarts, and also discovers Chocolate Frogs and Famous Wizards Trading Cards. Harry’s first card is no other than Albus Dumbledore. The card’s detail says Dumbledore is famous for a number of accomplishments and merits, including “the discovery of the twelve uses of dragon’s blood, and his work on alchemy with his partner, Nicolas Flamel.” (page 103). The story brings up this connection later in Harry’s discovery of the significance of Nicolas Flamel, and his search for the hidden stone and its importance to the mystery.
At the end of SS, in wrapping things up, Dumbledore says a number of things which are very important if they are recalled and applied to the context. To Harry’s first question, Albus “sighed very deeply”, and said “I cannot tell you. Not today. Not now.” (page 299). This is important, because it reinforces that there is information we do not receive directly, nor at the time or in the way we wish.
But before that, in the course of discussing the magical stone, Dumbledore says a number of things which need closer attention. In the first place, Albus flatly explains “As for the stone, it has been destroyed.”
Harry immediately realizes that the destruction of the stone will mean the death of Nicolas Flamel and his wife. Dumbledore explains:
“Nicolas and I had a little chat, and agreed it’s all for the best.”
“But that means he and his wife will die, won’t they?”
“They have enough Elixir stored to set their affairs in order and then, yes, they will die.”
(Page 297) It strike me as worth looking at that statement more closely, with a few thoughts.
First, one might wonder why the Flamels are willing to discuss this matter with Albus Dumbledore in the equal footing that they do.
One might note that Dumbledore and Flamel were not merely colleagues in magic, but according to the card, partners in alchemy.
One might consider that Dumbledore’s true age is difficult to know, except that he is very old by all accounts. He has no wife or children, and seems to have little planned for the future.
One might consider that Flamel and Dumbledore discovered how to make the Sorceror’s Stone together, and shared its virtues together. That would explain why Albus spoke with Nicolas; they shared the same fate.
Once the Stone was destroyed, Albus Dumbledore knew he was going to die, years before it happened. In all probability, Snape (who knew a great deal about potions, the Stone, and the events involving them) did as well. Everything after that is details about how it may best be used to accomplish good.
It’s really a mark of how great J.K. Rowling has mastered her craft, that legions of fans are arguing for weeks on end about whether Severus Snape is a loyal but misunderstood servant of Light and Justice, or else a slimy traitor who should not only be killed in the final book if there is justice, but in an especially prolonged and painfull manner. I should say right here that if by this point you are a fan of the “Harry Potter” series, but have not yet finished the “Half-Blood Prince”, this article would be a ‘spoiler’, so you might want to stop here. Also, if you are not a fan of Harry Potter, or if the name Harry Potter rings no bells, this article will hold little value to you.
With that said, readers of HBP (as the 6th book is usually dubbed in shorthand) are appalled to learn about the death of Albus Dumbledore, Headmaster at Hogwarts School and Harry Potter’s mentor. If the events of the book depict matters clearly, it also happens that Severus Snape, a teacher at Hogwarts specifically protected under Dumbledore’s trust, delivered the kiling blow with a forbidden curse. Snape was last seen fleeing the school, Death Eaters and snotty bully Draco Malfoy in tow. As a result, all sorts of debates have begun concerning the character of Snape’s heart and soul, and more to the point, predictions about what is to come in the pronounced finale to the best-selling series. The essential point comes down to a critical question: Was it Snape’s idea that Dumbledore, or was it actually Dumbledore himself? There seems to be strong support for either position, but I have found an early indicator of Dumbledore’s intentions along this line of thought.
First things first, and by that I mean that a lot of good information can be found in the first book, “Harry Potter and the Sorceror’s Stone” (American title under Scholastic publisher; all references in this article will be under the American edition), the shorthand for the title is SS. Anyway, the very first words spoken about our man Dumbledore come from Professor Minerva McGonagall, who tells Dumbledore that the only reason Voldemort has any powers that Dumbledore does not, is because Dumbledore is too “noble” (page 11). That significant word is reinforced througout the series, so it strikes me that we should key on it.
Another early reference to Dumbledore shows up when Harry meets Ron Weasley on the train to Hogwarts, and also discovers Chocolate Frogs and Famous Wizards Trading Cards. Harry’s first card is no other than Albus Dumbledore. The card’s detail says Dumbledore is famous for a number of accomplishments and merits, including “the discovery of the twelve uses of dragon’s blood, and his work on alchemy with his partner, Nicolas Flamel.” (page 103). The story brings up this connection later in Harry’s discovery of the significance of Nicolas Flamel, and his search for the hidden stone and its importance to the mystery.
At the end of SS, in wrapping things up, Dumbledore says a number of things which are very important if they are recalled and applied to the context. To Harry’s first question, Albus “sighed very deeply”, and said “I cannot tell you. Not today. Not now.” (page 299). This is important, because it reinforces that there is information we do not receive directly, nor at the time or in the way we wish.
But before that, in the course of discussing the magical stone, Dumbledore says a number of things which need closer attention. In the first place, Albus flatly explains “As for the stone, it has been destroyed.”
Harry immediately realizes that the destruction of the stone will mean the death of Nicolas Flamel and his wife. Dumbledore explains:
“Nicolas and I had a little chat, and agreed it’s all for the best.”
“But that means he and his wife will die, won’t they?”
“They have enough Elixir stored to set their affairs in order and then, yes, they will die.”
(Page 297) It strike me as worth looking at that statement more closely, with a few thoughts.
First, one might wonder why the Flamels are willing to discuss this matter with Albus Dumbledore in the equal footing that they do.
One might note that Dumbledore and Flamel were not merely colleagues in magic, but according to the card, partners in alchemy.
One might consider that Dumbledore’s true age is difficult to know, except that he is very old by all accounts. He has no wife or children, and seems to have little planned for the future.
One might consider that Flamel and Dumbledore discovered how to make the Sorceror’s Stone together, and shared its virtues together. That would explain why Albus spoke with Nicolas; they shared the same fate.
Once the Stone was destroyed, Albus Dumbledore knew he was going to die, years before it happened. In all probability, Snape (who knew a great deal about potions, the Stone, and the events involving them) did as well. Everything after that is details about how it may best be used to accomplish good.
Saturday, September 17, 2005
The Logic of Rebuilding
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One strange thing about the political party in control of the government, is that they seldom seem content to accept their good conditions. When Democrats held absolute control of the U.S. Government during the FDR Administration, many leading Democrats took issue with various elements of Roosevelt’s policies, sometimes for reasons which amounted to little more than personal pique.
Some Republicans are starting to do the same thing now, in Dubya’s second term. Some may be speaking out of personal ambition, or in hopes of gaining influence with the various cliques, while others may be speaking out of genuine concern for the ideal of government restraint.
The function of government should be limited, but it should also be present. George Washington said many times that he opposed the concept of a standing army in principle, but the world given to us made a standing army unavoidably necessary. So, in addition to from an ideal perspective, one must also consider tasks and duties which cannot be avoided. The discussion then should focus on the best objectives and standards.
I have always been of two minds about Franklin Roosevelt. On the one hand, his “New Deal” corrupted the role of government on all levels, increasing the federal role beyond any reasonable position, feeding the avarice of future politicians by showing how to buy votes with tax revenues, and shifting the nature of the country from self-sufficiency to an unhealthy dependence on government. On the other hand however, the United States was clearly in a Depression caused from unique factors which arguably could not be addressed without specific and significant government involvement, and which remedy depended on restoration of consumer confidence. That is, economists understand that the Depression of the 1930s was not caused so much by the ‘crash’ of the New York Stock Market, or even the failure of the banks, as it was the collapse of confidence by Americans in their infrastructure. When people lost confidence in the stock market, it crashed; when they took all their money out of banks, the banks failed; when people worried they could not afford to spend money, they closed off the flow of cash and killed the businesses in a self-fulfilling prophecy. The critical factor in recovery from any downturn is restoration of confidence, to get the money flow moving again.
The devastation from Hurricane Katrina, whatever one names for its fault, unquestionably did severe damage to dozens of towns and counties in several states. While many of the citizens and businesses could eventually recover on their own in normal conditions from a natural disaster restricted in locality, in this case major employers, credit unions and state banks, and county-level infrastructures have been destroyed, so that an individual must find someone to employ him, someone to protect his money, and someone to address his police and municipal needs. In other words, hundreds of thousands of people will need to see municipal authority re-established, after which businesses and banks need to be re-established and primed, and then people can rebuild and find new employment. The requirements are multi-dimensional, and the need for government oversight and direction is obvious. As a result, President Bush’s decision to involve the federal government at close level makes solid sense.
A fair analogy, if somewhat imperfect, would be starting up a business intended to become a major corporation. Because so many employees are needed, to serve so many customers in so many places, there needs to be substantial initial investment and detailed planning. The corporation would spend a great deal of money up front in capital expenditure, but would gain a great deal more later from the revenue driven by their planning. Better planning = better results, and that brings us to the next point about rebuilding Louisiana.
I don’t know how many of the victims of Katrina will return to New Orleans specifically, but it is reasonable to say now that (in spite of reasonable risk concerns) the city with so much historical and cultural significance will be restored, especially the French Quarter. That task must have some government control, if for no reason beyond its scope. Responsibility for that rebuilding, and no small amount of resources, may be entrusted to Local officials like Mayor Nagin, State officials like Governor Blanco, or Federal agencies. This too shows good consideration by the President.
There are hundreds of ways the rebuilding could lead to incompetence, negligence, or corruption. But if it is done correctly, the rebuilding can lead to a stronger infrastructure, more reliable and accountable government, and a much stronger economy. Obviously, the results will not be fully seen for at least a decade, but to me that just shows the foresight and serious competency of President Bush.
One strange thing about the political party in control of the government, is that they seldom seem content to accept their good conditions. When Democrats held absolute control of the U.S. Government during the FDR Administration, many leading Democrats took issue with various elements of Roosevelt’s policies, sometimes for reasons which amounted to little more than personal pique.
Some Republicans are starting to do the same thing now, in Dubya’s second term. Some may be speaking out of personal ambition, or in hopes of gaining influence with the various cliques, while others may be speaking out of genuine concern for the ideal of government restraint.
The function of government should be limited, but it should also be present. George Washington said many times that he opposed the concept of a standing army in principle, but the world given to us made a standing army unavoidably necessary. So, in addition to from an ideal perspective, one must also consider tasks and duties which cannot be avoided. The discussion then should focus on the best objectives and standards.
I have always been of two minds about Franklin Roosevelt. On the one hand, his “New Deal” corrupted the role of government on all levels, increasing the federal role beyond any reasonable position, feeding the avarice of future politicians by showing how to buy votes with tax revenues, and shifting the nature of the country from self-sufficiency to an unhealthy dependence on government. On the other hand however, the United States was clearly in a Depression caused from unique factors which arguably could not be addressed without specific and significant government involvement, and which remedy depended on restoration of consumer confidence. That is, economists understand that the Depression of the 1930s was not caused so much by the ‘crash’ of the New York Stock Market, or even the failure of the banks, as it was the collapse of confidence by Americans in their infrastructure. When people lost confidence in the stock market, it crashed; when they took all their money out of banks, the banks failed; when people worried they could not afford to spend money, they closed off the flow of cash and killed the businesses in a self-fulfilling prophecy. The critical factor in recovery from any downturn is restoration of confidence, to get the money flow moving again.
The devastation from Hurricane Katrina, whatever one names for its fault, unquestionably did severe damage to dozens of towns and counties in several states. While many of the citizens and businesses could eventually recover on their own in normal conditions from a natural disaster restricted in locality, in this case major employers, credit unions and state banks, and county-level infrastructures have been destroyed, so that an individual must find someone to employ him, someone to protect his money, and someone to address his police and municipal needs. In other words, hundreds of thousands of people will need to see municipal authority re-established, after which businesses and banks need to be re-established and primed, and then people can rebuild and find new employment. The requirements are multi-dimensional, and the need for government oversight and direction is obvious. As a result, President Bush’s decision to involve the federal government at close level makes solid sense.
A fair analogy, if somewhat imperfect, would be starting up a business intended to become a major corporation. Because so many employees are needed, to serve so many customers in so many places, there needs to be substantial initial investment and detailed planning. The corporation would spend a great deal of money up front in capital expenditure, but would gain a great deal more later from the revenue driven by their planning. Better planning = better results, and that brings us to the next point about rebuilding Louisiana.
I don’t know how many of the victims of Katrina will return to New Orleans specifically, but it is reasonable to say now that (in spite of reasonable risk concerns) the city with so much historical and cultural significance will be restored, especially the French Quarter. That task must have some government control, if for no reason beyond its scope. Responsibility for that rebuilding, and no small amount of resources, may be entrusted to Local officials like Mayor Nagin, State officials like Governor Blanco, or Federal agencies. This too shows good consideration by the President.
There are hundreds of ways the rebuilding could lead to incompetence, negligence, or corruption. But if it is done correctly, the rebuilding can lead to a stronger infrastructure, more reliable and accountable government, and a much stronger economy. Obviously, the results will not be fully seen for at least a decade, but to me that just shows the foresight and serious competency of President Bush.
Friday, September 16, 2005
The NYT/CBS notion of Balance and Demographics Weighting
oooooooo
Tom Elia at The New Editor asks “Is the Latest NYT/CBS Poll Biased?”
Off the top of my head, the answer is ‘yes’. On reflection, ‘yes’. On prolonged consideration and after examining the evidence and history, ‘absolutely yes’.
Fortunately, as I have mentioned before, the funny thing about the NYT/CBS Poll, is that for all their arrogance and bias, they are pretty forward about presenting their numbers, which makes it possible to reverse-engineer the poll and determine a true state.
The first thing which jumps out at me comes up right on the first page of the poll results. Right under the title and date is the following note:
“N=1,167
White N = 877
Black N = 211”
In other words, 877 of the respondents were white (~75%), 211 of the respondents were black (~18%), and another 79 respondents were neither black nor white (~7%), possibly meaning Hispanic, though the NYT/CBS does not say.
The Census reports that whites comprise about 82% of the population, blacks about 13%, and other races about 5%. This demonstrates a demographic mis-weighting by the poll.
Continuing, the overall support was 12% by blacks and 47% by whites, both well within historical norms for Dubya during his Presidency, especially in this generally sour poll. 49% of whites approve of how Bush has addressed Katrina, very respectable considering the absolute smear job against him by the MSM, and 18% of blacks agree he’s done well in responding to Katrina, which is higher than the black support in general for Bush. When the question is phrased in terms of the “people affected by Katrina”, white support climbs to 50% and black support to 23%, again both very good in the context presented.
I thought it interesting that the poll focused mainly on four questions, treating them very much as related to each other. The poll addressed the response to Katrina, the condition of the economy, and the War in Iraq. The poll also paid attention to the confirmation hearings on John Roberts, even though nearly half the respondents admit they have paid almost no attention to them.
Returning to demographics, the NYT/CBS poll states that 22% of the respondents were 18-29 years of age. The Roper Center shows that in the 2004 election, only 17% of voters were 29 years old or younger, so again there is an obvious imbalance. And as Elia noted in his column, the NYT/CBS Poll shows a 36% Democrat/26% Republican/28% Independent/9% Don’t Know breakdown, far off the 37%-37%-26% balance reflected by the Roper Exit Poll.
Also, and this is important, the NYT/CBS Poll admits that 20% of its respondents did not vote in the 2004 Election, and another 6% say they voted but don’t know whom they voted for!
So, at this point we can safely say that the NYT/CBS Poll is not, in fact, trustworthy, nor should they be believed in their claims. The poll oversamples blacks, Democrats, people under 30, and people who did not vote in the last election and who admit they are not paying close attention to what is going on in important events. In other words, just the sort of people who get their news and opinion from the New York Times or CBS News, instead of checking out the facts.
Tom Elia at The New Editor asks “Is the Latest NYT/CBS Poll Biased?”
Off the top of my head, the answer is ‘yes’. On reflection, ‘yes’. On prolonged consideration and after examining the evidence and history, ‘absolutely yes’.
Fortunately, as I have mentioned before, the funny thing about the NYT/CBS Poll, is that for all their arrogance and bias, they are pretty forward about presenting their numbers, which makes it possible to reverse-engineer the poll and determine a true state.
The first thing which jumps out at me comes up right on the first page of the poll results. Right under the title and date is the following note:
“N=1,167
White N = 877
Black N = 211”
In other words, 877 of the respondents were white (~75%), 211 of the respondents were black (~18%), and another 79 respondents were neither black nor white (~7%), possibly meaning Hispanic, though the NYT/CBS does not say.
The Census reports that whites comprise about 82% of the population, blacks about 13%, and other races about 5%. This demonstrates a demographic mis-weighting by the poll.
Continuing, the overall support was 12% by blacks and 47% by whites, both well within historical norms for Dubya during his Presidency, especially in this generally sour poll. 49% of whites approve of how Bush has addressed Katrina, very respectable considering the absolute smear job against him by the MSM, and 18% of blacks agree he’s done well in responding to Katrina, which is higher than the black support in general for Bush. When the question is phrased in terms of the “people affected by Katrina”, white support climbs to 50% and black support to 23%, again both very good in the context presented.
I thought it interesting that the poll focused mainly on four questions, treating them very much as related to each other. The poll addressed the response to Katrina, the condition of the economy, and the War in Iraq. The poll also paid attention to the confirmation hearings on John Roberts, even though nearly half the respondents admit they have paid almost no attention to them.
Returning to demographics, the NYT/CBS poll states that 22% of the respondents were 18-29 years of age. The Roper Center shows that in the 2004 election, only 17% of voters were 29 years old or younger, so again there is an obvious imbalance. And as Elia noted in his column, the NYT/CBS Poll shows a 36% Democrat/26% Republican/28% Independent/9% Don’t Know breakdown, far off the 37%-37%-26% balance reflected by the Roper Exit Poll.
Also, and this is important, the NYT/CBS Poll admits that 20% of its respondents did not vote in the 2004 Election, and another 6% say they voted but don’t know whom they voted for!
So, at this point we can safely say that the NYT/CBS Poll is not, in fact, trustworthy, nor should they be believed in their claims. The poll oversamples blacks, Democrats, people under 30, and people who did not vote in the last election and who admit they are not paying close attention to what is going on in important events. In other words, just the sort of people who get their news and opinion from the New York Times or CBS News, instead of checking out the facts.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
The New Asia
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Bruce Kesler, writing for Democracy Project, is discussing Japan in today’s article.
He begins with this observation:
“In the 1950’s, we laughed at “Made in Japan” labels for kitsch and poor quality. In the 1970’s, we stopped laughing and panicked to catch up to Japanese quality and management focus. In the 1990’s we hoped we had gotten our money out of the Japanese stock market in time. In the 2000’s, we’ve largely just ignored Japan.”
From my perspective, we actually didn’t notice Japan until the late 1970s. During the first half of the decade, Japan stood for cheap little cars which didn’t drive well, but by 1978 and later people were worried enough about the price of gas to buy them anyway. In the 1980s, and especially after 1986, Honda and Toyota had clearly passed American-made cars in quality and performance. In the 1990s, we first worried that Japan was buying up American businesses and real estate, but by 1998 we were generally amused to discover Japan had paid far too much for the land, and in a chase for hard currency, investors were selling property back to Americans at heavy losses, which damaged the appearance of respect and cooperation; more than a few leading Japanese accused the U.S. of manipulating the market to play the Japanese for fools, or at least for unfairly taking advantage of the situation, which is ironically amusing, given Japan’s abuse of the Trade imbalance and Tariff games played so long by MITI.
Kesler used his article to reference the columns by Sol Sanders, especially the ones focusing on changes under Prime Minister Koizumi. I agree that Sanders, like Kesler, is experienced and knows his subject well, but I would also argue for the broader view, and in this point I find myself somewhat a defender of the Clinton Doctrine, insofar as Bubba ever put one together.
As a faithful husband, I have no respect for President Clinton’s personal conduct while in office at any level, and as an American, I agree with those who contend that Clinton damaged National Security by lowering the restrictions on American technology that the Chinese wanted to buy, steal, or otherwise acquire. That said however, I think Clinton had a good perception of the Asian pantheon, ironically superior than is possible from within the Pacific Rim. Also, too close a focus on any one of the Asian nations misses the balance between them.
Japan is an economic powerhouse, and many analysts believe they have the world’s third-best navy, perhaps the second-best. However, they have real issues in relations with their Asian neighbors, not only because of lingering bitterness from World War 2 (which Japan refuses to discuss in specifics), but also from trade practices which lead many nations to consider Japan unreliable. In business, you cannot succeed if you cannot be trusted.
South Korea is a growing regional power, and a true thorn in the side, and a permanent one, for Japan. Not only is SK’s industrial capacity growing to the same scale as Japan’s, their geographic location gives them comparable logistics. It is not a coincidence that DaeWoo and Hyundai are strong brands, as known for quality as they are for price.
China is still the 900-pound-gorilla in the room, but also still a very clumsy one. Until the PRC allows for independent audits and audited financial statements, they will attract some investment because of their sheer size, but will chase away plum contracts because their track record is suspect. It seems impossible to imagine a functional Chinese version of the SEC at this time, however.
Vietnam is another growing industry center, although their forte seems to be shipping, like Holland. Clever in its way, since it avoids direct competition with the neighboring countries.
And then there’s India. India is absolutely a wild card in any discussion, not only on the economic front, which is diversified and pretty complex, but also the military front, where India’s modernized navy and much more disciplined army cannot help but effect the balance of influence in the region.
And all that does not even touch the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, or the islands of Micronesia, often forgotten but still a major player in many technology contracts.
Get a scorecard; it’s not just Japan.
Bruce Kesler, writing for Democracy Project, is discussing Japan in today’s article.
He begins with this observation:
“In the 1950’s, we laughed at “Made in Japan” labels for kitsch and poor quality. In the 1970’s, we stopped laughing and panicked to catch up to Japanese quality and management focus. In the 1990’s we hoped we had gotten our money out of the Japanese stock market in time. In the 2000’s, we’ve largely just ignored Japan.”
From my perspective, we actually didn’t notice Japan until the late 1970s. During the first half of the decade, Japan stood for cheap little cars which didn’t drive well, but by 1978 and later people were worried enough about the price of gas to buy them anyway. In the 1980s, and especially after 1986, Honda and Toyota had clearly passed American-made cars in quality and performance. In the 1990s, we first worried that Japan was buying up American businesses and real estate, but by 1998 we were generally amused to discover Japan had paid far too much for the land, and in a chase for hard currency, investors were selling property back to Americans at heavy losses, which damaged the appearance of respect and cooperation; more than a few leading Japanese accused the U.S. of manipulating the market to play the Japanese for fools, or at least for unfairly taking advantage of the situation, which is ironically amusing, given Japan’s abuse of the Trade imbalance and Tariff games played so long by MITI.
Kesler used his article to reference the columns by Sol Sanders, especially the ones focusing on changes under Prime Minister Koizumi. I agree that Sanders, like Kesler, is experienced and knows his subject well, but I would also argue for the broader view, and in this point I find myself somewhat a defender of the Clinton Doctrine, insofar as Bubba ever put one together.
As a faithful husband, I have no respect for President Clinton’s personal conduct while in office at any level, and as an American, I agree with those who contend that Clinton damaged National Security by lowering the restrictions on American technology that the Chinese wanted to buy, steal, or otherwise acquire. That said however, I think Clinton had a good perception of the Asian pantheon, ironically superior than is possible from within the Pacific Rim. Also, too close a focus on any one of the Asian nations misses the balance between them.
Japan is an economic powerhouse, and many analysts believe they have the world’s third-best navy, perhaps the second-best. However, they have real issues in relations with their Asian neighbors, not only because of lingering bitterness from World War 2 (which Japan refuses to discuss in specifics), but also from trade practices which lead many nations to consider Japan unreliable. In business, you cannot succeed if you cannot be trusted.
South Korea is a growing regional power, and a true thorn in the side, and a permanent one, for Japan. Not only is SK’s industrial capacity growing to the same scale as Japan’s, their geographic location gives them comparable logistics. It is not a coincidence that DaeWoo and Hyundai are strong brands, as known for quality as they are for price.
China is still the 900-pound-gorilla in the room, but also still a very clumsy one. Until the PRC allows for independent audits and audited financial statements, they will attract some investment because of their sheer size, but will chase away plum contracts because their track record is suspect. It seems impossible to imagine a functional Chinese version of the SEC at this time, however.
Vietnam is another growing industry center, although their forte seems to be shipping, like Holland. Clever in its way, since it avoids direct competition with the neighboring countries.
And then there’s India. India is absolutely a wild card in any discussion, not only on the economic front, which is diversified and pretty complex, but also the military front, where India’s modernized navy and much more disciplined army cannot help but effect the balance of influence in the region.
And all that does not even touch the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, or the islands of Micronesia, often forgotten but still a major player in many technology contracts.
Get a scorecard; it’s not just Japan.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Dude, Where’s My Car? Seriously, Where Is My Car?
~~~~~~~~~~~~
I like looking at statistics. Finding out I have become one is rather less intriguing.
Last night, I happened to notice my car as my wife were talking on our porch. This morning, I happened to notice that a different car was parked in the place where I left my car on Tuesday. After checking the lot to make sure I was not simply I had not simply been mistaken, I received that sick feeling in my gut, realizing that someone else liked my car as well, enough to acquire it during the night.
I did all the expected things, calling the police and insurance and the EZ-Tag people. Naturally, since my car was getting old and had a lot of miles on it, I had dropped the full coverage a couple years earlier, getting by with just Liability and UM coverage, so that means I get nothing for the loss. Just swell.
It also means that I have to keep checking my bank and credit card accounts regularly, to be sure that I didn’t accidentally leave something in the car that can come back and cause more problems. Like anyone else in this situation, I did not need this in my life, and whatever I do next, will end up being expensive and annoying. New cars are obscenely expensive, and buying a used car almost assures one of collecting a new set of less-than-appealing qualities with the car, even if one spends a great deal of car and attention trying to get the right one. And even if, by some mercy from God, I actually get my old Honda back, I have no illusions that the thieves will have been kind to it, or left everything as it should be. Worse, more than a few people have told me that my particular year and model is prized, ordinary as it looks, for its hard-to-find parts. Hardly a cheering thought.
What’s it mean? I couldn’t say just now. Maybe later I will come up with some witty insight that makes it relevant to politics or the day’s events, but for now I am focused on an immediate and personal need, and everything else must bide.
I like looking at statistics. Finding out I have become one is rather less intriguing.
Last night, I happened to notice my car as my wife were talking on our porch. This morning, I happened to notice that a different car was parked in the place where I left my car on Tuesday. After checking the lot to make sure I was not simply I had not simply been mistaken, I received that sick feeling in my gut, realizing that someone else liked my car as well, enough to acquire it during the night.
I did all the expected things, calling the police and insurance and the EZ-Tag people. Naturally, since my car was getting old and had a lot of miles on it, I had dropped the full coverage a couple years earlier, getting by with just Liability and UM coverage, so that means I get nothing for the loss. Just swell.
It also means that I have to keep checking my bank and credit card accounts regularly, to be sure that I didn’t accidentally leave something in the car that can come back and cause more problems. Like anyone else in this situation, I did not need this in my life, and whatever I do next, will end up being expensive and annoying. New cars are obscenely expensive, and buying a used car almost assures one of collecting a new set of less-than-appealing qualities with the car, even if one spends a great deal of car and attention trying to get the right one. And even if, by some mercy from God, I actually get my old Honda back, I have no illusions that the thieves will have been kind to it, or left everything as it should be. Worse, more than a few people have told me that my particular year and model is prized, ordinary as it looks, for its hard-to-find parts. Hardly a cheering thought.
What’s it mean? I couldn’t say just now. Maybe later I will come up with some witty insight that makes it relevant to politics or the day’s events, but for now I am focused on an immediate and personal need, and everything else must bide.
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Accusation, Revealed
???????
Over on Polipundit, I promised to name the culprit most responsible for the absolute Cluster-Fudge that was New Orleans between August 29th and September 1st. For four days, it seemed that no one was in charge, knew what to do, or cared about the more than a million people affected by Hurricane Katrina in the Southeast Louisiana area. To be sure, there were conditions no one could control, and also there is no question that certain individuals set themselves apart, but in dishonor and personal disgrace. But when one starts to sift the facts out, one man becomes clearly involved in every major blunder, every key decision involving New Orleans, and one man who had contact with every decision-maker, in many cases the man expected to tell them the conditions, needs, and options. That man did so horrible a job, that in any just universe he will face criminal charges. That man is Major General Bennett C. Landreneau, who is also the head of Louisiana's Department of Homeland Security.
As many people know, the City of New Orleans did have a hurricane preparation and response plan. The plan is aligned with the official "State of Louisiana Emergency Operations Plan, Supplement 1A".
Unfortunately, the City of New Orleans did not train for it, nor did they follow its provisions when the event happened. But that part can be discussed in another article.
The plans specified state and local actions which simply did not happen, including (City and State use identical plan references)
D1b. The Governor will, after declaring a State of Emergency, "Issue supplemental declarations and orders", to address specific needs not covered by the initial declaration. That is the part where the Governor needed to ask for troops from out-of-state, rather than assume they would just show up.
D1c. "Authorize and direct the use of State government personnel and other resources to deal with the emergency."
D1d. "Authorize and direct the authorities of non-risk parishes to coordinate the opening and operation of shelters with DSS in conjunction with ARC, and to lend all possible assistance to the evacuation and shelter effort." (DSS is the Department of Social Services, ARC is American Red Cross)
D1e. "Request federal government assistance as needed."
The Adjutant General/Director of the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness (LOEP) is charged in section D2 with the coordination of the Governor's actions and declarations, and to "keep the Governor and the Legislature informed of progress and problems in dealing with the disaster."
The Louisiana State Police are charged in D3. to "maintain order on State highways and expedite the flow of traffic from the risk to the host parishes"
The Department of Social Services is charged in D5 to "coordinate the opening of shelters in conjunction with the ARC for evacuees from the risk area."
The Department of Health and Hospitals is charged in D6 to "coordinate the evacuation and sheltering of people who have special medical and health needs".
The New Orleans plan, in section E, says that "direction and control is specified in the State Emergency Operations Plan".
That puts us back the matter of coordination. What happens, essentially, is that the Adjutant General of Louisiana‘s Department of Homeland Security (not to be confused with the U.S. DHS) is responsible for telling the Governor what ia happening and what needs to be done next. The same man is responsible for coordinating state agencies with the parishes which need help, in this case most critically with Mayor Nagin. That same man is also responsible for telling FEMA where the people fleeing the storm are going, and making sure they get the water, food, medicine, and other supplies they need. As we have seen in the actual event, none of those things were done, and they all depended on General Landreneau. It is clear from the evidence, that the man had no idea what he was doing, and lacked the sense to get out of the way until President replaced him with General Honore on Wednesday. The timeline shows that once Landreneau was replaced, the system began to work.
FEMA coordinates the actions of twenty-seven federal agencies, as explained briefly here, and in depth here.
In Section III, Roles and Responsibilities (pdf page 28 of 426), FEMA explains that the Federal government may coordinate multiple agencies under the provisions of the Stafford Act. FEMA, as its name suggests, is a Manager of Agencies, responsible for coordination, and totally dependent on information from and cooperation with local and state agencies.
The Stafford Act, in essence, manages relief resources supplied by the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, the Mennonite Disaster Service, "and any other relief or disaster assistance organizations" operating to assist in relief efforts. That is, FEMA's first actions are to coordinate the supplies and aid being brought in by the extant relief groups. FEMA does not establish shelters or perform evacuations, does not command police or armed forces, and must depend on the information and cooperation received from the stateÂ’s authorized commander for disaster relief. In other states, FEMA was relatively swift and effective, but in Louisiana, FEMA was obstructed by the LDHS.
Now, about General Landreneau. The first words from the General were in an August 29th press conference, where he assured the press that 200 boats were positioned to go in to rescue stranded victims, "as soon as the winds decrease". In the actual fact, far fewer boats weravailablele, and they went out much later.
On that same date, Landreneau downplayed the initial effects of Katrina, as his agency suggested the hurricane had already done its worst. "Officials originally were concerned that hurricane protection levees would be topped, but Katrina's drift to the east apparently kept that from occurring" said an article interviewing the general.
That same article quoted Landreneau as saying "there was a report that there was a breech or overtopping of a levee on the 17th Street Canal, which divides Jefferson and Orleans. Some areas had been flooded, perhaps in the Lakeview section of New Orleans." Landreneau did not understand the importance of his own information.
Confusion was evident sometimes in the very same statement. In one place, "Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau, adjutant general for the Louisiana National Guard, said that the number of people taking shelter in the Superdome has risen to around 15,000 to 20,000 as search and rescue teams bring more people to the Superdome from areas hit hard by the flooding."
But the same article noted that Mayor Nagin had declared the Superdome to be a "refuge of last resort, that no food, water, or supplies would be provided. Residents who evacuated to the Superdome were warned to bring their own supplies." In this statement, the Mayor was correct under the plan described by the State, but General Landreneau appeared to be unaware of the terms of the plan, and what this meant to the people there.
This is a worrisome indicator that Landreneau underestimated the danger from Katrina, and directed his force to keep people from entering New Orleans, rather than focusing on getting people out, or making sure the people at shelters had needed supplies. This attitude also explains the reports from Major Garrett that State DHS forces commanded by Landreneau had prevented the Red Cross and Salvation Army from delivering food and water to the Superdome.
Garret said the Red Cross quoted a State official as saying to them "look, we do not want to create a magnet for more people to come to the Superdome or the convention center. We want to get them out." In plain English, Landreneau failed to tell his own agency that the Superdome, originally designated a Shelter of Last Resort, which by design do not receive food or water, had been redesignated as a major relief shelter. Small wonder; Landreneau never did any of the paperwork necessary to order that change, and did not even announce to his own deputies the change in plan.
Landreneau was mentioned in an August 31 report about a controversy around who would use a new planned airport. Landreneau's reluctance to make a clear decision, as highlighted in the article, indicates an indecision which may have played a role in the disaster response.
A Boston Globe report on August 30 noted that there was a great deal of confusion in the State response, even to the details about numbers of victims and locations of focus. Landreneau appeared to be one of many chiefs, rather than the man in charge.
Although the Shreveport Times reports that Landreneau was keeping Governor Blanco informed of events and needs, it appears that Blanco was not being told about the numbers in shelters without food or water, and was not told about the need to ask for additional National Guard support.
While it seems peculiar that Governor Blanco would not understand that her Declaration of a State of Emergency did not satisfy the conditions under Posse Comitatus necessary for out-of-state forces to assist in forceful restoration of order, it should be noted that General Landreneau never explained the requirement to her; if a State Executives should understand this, certainly her military adjutant in charge of disaster response should suggest the action. But General Landreneau never briefed Governor Blanco on Posse Comitatus, or suggested the request for federal troops in support of the LNG.
On August 30, even as the world at large began to know about the terrible conditions in the Superdome, Landreneau continued to instruct rescuers to move victims there.
"Rescue teams were still picking up people throughout the city Tuesday, leaving them on island-like highway overpasses and on a levee to wait to be moved again. Eventually, they will end up in the Superdome, where 15,000 to 20,000 people have taken already refuge, said Louisiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau."
Mayor Nagin depended on Landreneau to move and feed and protect the citizens of New Orleans. That did not happen. Nagin depended on Landreneau to give people good answers on how to find shelter and food. That did not happen. Governor Blanco depended on Landreneau to keep her informed on the next step to restore order and help the victims. That did not happen. Blanco depended on Landreneau to coordinate with the Red Cross and Salvation Army to get people what they needed. That did not happen. President Bush depended on Landreneau to do his job. That did not happen.
Landreneau should be fired, demoted, then arrested.
Over on Polipundit, I promised to name the culprit most responsible for the absolute Cluster-Fudge that was New Orleans between August 29th and September 1st. For four days, it seemed that no one was in charge, knew what to do, or cared about the more than a million people affected by Hurricane Katrina in the Southeast Louisiana area. To be sure, there were conditions no one could control, and also there is no question that certain individuals set themselves apart, but in dishonor and personal disgrace. But when one starts to sift the facts out, one man becomes clearly involved in every major blunder, every key decision involving New Orleans, and one man who had contact with every decision-maker, in many cases the man expected to tell them the conditions, needs, and options. That man did so horrible a job, that in any just universe he will face criminal charges. That man is Major General Bennett C. Landreneau, who is also the head of Louisiana's Department of Homeland Security.
As many people know, the City of New Orleans did have a hurricane preparation and response plan. The plan is aligned with the official "State of Louisiana Emergency Operations Plan, Supplement 1A".
Unfortunately, the City of New Orleans did not train for it, nor did they follow its provisions when the event happened. But that part can be discussed in another article.
The plans specified state and local actions which simply did not happen, including (City and State use identical plan references)
D1b. The Governor will, after declaring a State of Emergency, "Issue supplemental declarations and orders", to address specific needs not covered by the initial declaration. That is the part where the Governor needed to ask for troops from out-of-state, rather than assume they would just show up.
D1c. "Authorize and direct the use of State government personnel and other resources to deal with the emergency."
D1d. "Authorize and direct the authorities of non-risk parishes to coordinate the opening and operation of shelters with DSS in conjunction with ARC, and to lend all possible assistance to the evacuation and shelter effort." (DSS is the Department of Social Services, ARC is American Red Cross)
D1e. "Request federal government assistance as needed."
The Adjutant General/Director of the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness (LOEP) is charged in section D2 with the coordination of the Governor's actions and declarations, and to "keep the Governor and the Legislature informed of progress and problems in dealing with the disaster."
The Louisiana State Police are charged in D3. to "maintain order on State highways and expedite the flow of traffic from the risk to the host parishes"
The Department of Social Services is charged in D5 to "coordinate the opening of shelters in conjunction with the ARC for evacuees from the risk area."
The Department of Health and Hospitals is charged in D6 to "coordinate the evacuation and sheltering of people who have special medical and health needs".
The New Orleans plan, in section E, says that "direction and control is specified in the State Emergency Operations Plan".
That puts us back the matter of coordination. What happens, essentially, is that the Adjutant General of Louisiana‘s Department of Homeland Security (not to be confused with the U.S. DHS) is responsible for telling the Governor what ia happening and what needs to be done next. The same man is responsible for coordinating state agencies with the parishes which need help, in this case most critically with Mayor Nagin. That same man is also responsible for telling FEMA where the people fleeing the storm are going, and making sure they get the water, food, medicine, and other supplies they need. As we have seen in the actual event, none of those things were done, and they all depended on General Landreneau. It is clear from the evidence, that the man had no idea what he was doing, and lacked the sense to get out of the way until President replaced him with General Honore on Wednesday. The timeline shows that once Landreneau was replaced, the system began to work.
FEMA coordinates the actions of twenty-seven federal agencies, as explained briefly here, and in depth here.
In Section III, Roles and Responsibilities (pdf page 28 of 426), FEMA explains that the Federal government may coordinate multiple agencies under the provisions of the Stafford Act. FEMA, as its name suggests, is a Manager of Agencies, responsible for coordination, and totally dependent on information from and cooperation with local and state agencies.
The Stafford Act, in essence, manages relief resources supplied by the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, the Mennonite Disaster Service, "and any other relief or disaster assistance organizations" operating to assist in relief efforts. That is, FEMA's first actions are to coordinate the supplies and aid being brought in by the extant relief groups. FEMA does not establish shelters or perform evacuations, does not command police or armed forces, and must depend on the information and cooperation received from the stateÂ’s authorized commander for disaster relief. In other states, FEMA was relatively swift and effective, but in Louisiana, FEMA was obstructed by the LDHS.
Now, about General Landreneau. The first words from the General were in an August 29th press conference, where he assured the press that 200 boats were positioned to go in to rescue stranded victims, "as soon as the winds decrease". In the actual fact, far fewer boats weravailablele, and they went out much later.
On that same date, Landreneau downplayed the initial effects of Katrina, as his agency suggested the hurricane had already done its worst. "Officials originally were concerned that hurricane protection levees would be topped, but Katrina's drift to the east apparently kept that from occurring" said an article interviewing the general.
That same article quoted Landreneau as saying "there was a report that there was a breech or overtopping of a levee on the 17th Street Canal, which divides Jefferson and Orleans. Some areas had been flooded, perhaps in the Lakeview section of New Orleans." Landreneau did not understand the importance of his own information.
Confusion was evident sometimes in the very same statement. In one place, "Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau, adjutant general for the Louisiana National Guard, said that the number of people taking shelter in the Superdome has risen to around 15,000 to 20,000 as search and rescue teams bring more people to the Superdome from areas hit hard by the flooding."
But the same article noted that Mayor Nagin had declared the Superdome to be a "refuge of last resort, that no food, water, or supplies would be provided. Residents who evacuated to the Superdome were warned to bring their own supplies." In this statement, the Mayor was correct under the plan described by the State, but General Landreneau appeared to be unaware of the terms of the plan, and what this meant to the people there.
This is a worrisome indicator that Landreneau underestimated the danger from Katrina, and directed his force to keep people from entering New Orleans, rather than focusing on getting people out, or making sure the people at shelters had needed supplies. This attitude also explains the reports from Major Garrett that State DHS forces commanded by Landreneau had prevented the Red Cross and Salvation Army from delivering food and water to the Superdome.
Garret said the Red Cross quoted a State official as saying to them "look, we do not want to create a magnet for more people to come to the Superdome or the convention center. We want to get them out." In plain English, Landreneau failed to tell his own agency that the Superdome, originally designated a Shelter of Last Resort, which by design do not receive food or water, had been redesignated as a major relief shelter. Small wonder; Landreneau never did any of the paperwork necessary to order that change, and did not even announce to his own deputies the change in plan.
Landreneau was mentioned in an August 31 report about a controversy around who would use a new planned airport. Landreneau's reluctance to make a clear decision, as highlighted in the article, indicates an indecision which may have played a role in the disaster response.
A Boston Globe report on August 30 noted that there was a great deal of confusion in the State response, even to the details about numbers of victims and locations of focus. Landreneau appeared to be one of many chiefs, rather than the man in charge.
Although the Shreveport Times reports that Landreneau was keeping Governor Blanco informed of events and needs, it appears that Blanco was not being told about the numbers in shelters without food or water, and was not told about the need to ask for additional National Guard support.
While it seems peculiar that Governor Blanco would not understand that her Declaration of a State of Emergency did not satisfy the conditions under Posse Comitatus necessary for out-of-state forces to assist in forceful restoration of order, it should be noted that General Landreneau never explained the requirement to her; if a State Executives should understand this, certainly her military adjutant in charge of disaster response should suggest the action. But General Landreneau never briefed Governor Blanco on Posse Comitatus, or suggested the request for federal troops in support of the LNG.
On August 30, even as the world at large began to know about the terrible conditions in the Superdome, Landreneau continued to instruct rescuers to move victims there.
"Rescue teams were still picking up people throughout the city Tuesday, leaving them on island-like highway overpasses and on a levee to wait to be moved again. Eventually, they will end up in the Superdome, where 15,000 to 20,000 people have taken already refuge, said Louisiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau."
Mayor Nagin depended on Landreneau to move and feed and protect the citizens of New Orleans. That did not happen. Nagin depended on Landreneau to give people good answers on how to find shelter and food. That did not happen. Governor Blanco depended on Landreneau to keep her informed on the next step to restore order and help the victims. That did not happen. Blanco depended on Landreneau to coordinate with the Red Cross and Salvation Army to get people what they needed. That did not happen. President Bush depended on Landreneau to do his job. That did not happen.
Landreneau should be fired, demoted, then arrested.
Monday, September 12, 2005
I Accuse...
????????
OK, the rescue efforts are largely successful, the death toll appears to be significantly below the 10,000 pitched by Mayor Nagin, and since the Liberals have had their predictable flurry of attempts to pin yet another act of Nature on President Bush, it seems to me that we have finally reached the point where we can start talking about who bears the bulk of the responsibility for this disaster in New Orleans.
Bearing in mind, as always, that we are talking about an unforeseen natural disaster.
Fortunately, there has ben a great deal of information presented on the timeline and responsibilities. And in reading those documents, I have found a candidate who appears far more culpable than anyone else. Here are some hints:
[] It's not President Bush
[] It's not anyone named Clinton
[] It's not FEMA Director Michael Brown
[] It's not Louisiana Governor "Quick Decision" Blanco
[] It's not even Mayor "Calm Under Pressure" Nagin
The last two, especially, have their own responsibilities to be sure, but I found someone whose duties, as specified in the stautes in place when Katrina made landfall, makes their burden the heaviest.
I wonder who else might know the person I mean?
More to come...
OK, the rescue efforts are largely successful, the death toll appears to be significantly below the 10,000 pitched by Mayor Nagin, and since the Liberals have had their predictable flurry of attempts to pin yet another act of Nature on President Bush, it seems to me that we have finally reached the point where we can start talking about who bears the bulk of the responsibility for this disaster in New Orleans.
Bearing in mind, as always, that we are talking about an unforeseen natural disaster.
Fortunately, there has ben a great deal of information presented on the timeline and responsibilities. And in reading those documents, I have found a candidate who appears far more culpable than anyone else. Here are some hints:
[] It's not President Bush
[] It's not anyone named Clinton
[] It's not FEMA Director Michael Brown
[] It's not Louisiana Governor "Quick Decision" Blanco
[] It's not even Mayor "Calm Under Pressure" Nagin
The last two, especially, have their own responsibilities to be sure, but I found someone whose duties, as specified in the stautes in place when Katrina made landfall, makes their burden the heaviest.
I wonder who else might know the person I mean?
More to come...
Sunday, September 11, 2005
Renewal
\\*// \\*//
On September 11, 2001, the Democrats were still pushing the claim that George W. Bush was not really President by right, and would not accomplish anything of significance in his office. This, even though the Democrats had tried to deny the votes of thousands of U.S. servicemen, and had attempted to subvert the Constitutions of Florida and the United States in opposing the results of the election.
RINO Jim Jeffords (Undecided) deserted the GOP in (vain) hopes of attracting Democrat support for his bills and ambition, throwing control of the U.S. Senate back to the Left.
The government of China continued to press a political advantage caused by its interception of a U.S. Navy plane over International waters in the early part of the year.
The bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, like the bombings of two U.S. Embassies, had received little overt official attention and no apparent response.
Then less than two dozen men hijacked four commercial airliners and killed around three thousand Americans, for the offense of being Americans.
The mastermind, Osama bin Laden, is either dead on continuing a multi-year campaign to discover the merits of living in caves throughout the Middle East, hoping his life won’t end in a well-deserved condemnation, especially now that six separate Muslim Imams have issued fatwas justifying his death as an apostate.
Al Qaeda has gone from an organization capable of attacking military units and changing the policies of governments, to a group unable to coordinate attacks beyond the level of ordinary gangs.
The Taliban has been thrown out of control in Afghanistan, and most of their deadership is dead, and most of the survivors are in prison.
Saddam Hussein has been deposed, found hiding in a hole, arrested, arraigned, and has confessed to the murder or thousands of innocents.
The Baath party has ceased to exist in Iraq.
Afghanistan and Iraq have held free elections.
On the encouragement from President Bush, and with mobs holding signs and banners with his name and picture, crowds of Lebanese have shamed Syrian troops into leaving Lebanon.
In fear of an Operation Libya Freedom, Moamar Qaddafi has renounced his WMD programs and promised to respect the border with Chad.
The Democrats have lost seats in both houses of Congress ever since Bush took office.
Thousands of Americans died on September 11. But not in vain. They are remembered, and the memory of their loss has fed the birth of new hope in countless places.
On September 11, 2001, the Democrats were still pushing the claim that George W. Bush was not really President by right, and would not accomplish anything of significance in his office. This, even though the Democrats had tried to deny the votes of thousands of U.S. servicemen, and had attempted to subvert the Constitutions of Florida and the United States in opposing the results of the election.
RINO Jim Jeffords (Undecided) deserted the GOP in (vain) hopes of attracting Democrat support for his bills and ambition, throwing control of the U.S. Senate back to the Left.
The government of China continued to press a political advantage caused by its interception of a U.S. Navy plane over International waters in the early part of the year.
The bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, like the bombings of two U.S. Embassies, had received little overt official attention and no apparent response.
Then less than two dozen men hijacked four commercial airliners and killed around three thousand Americans, for the offense of being Americans.
The mastermind, Osama bin Laden, is either dead on continuing a multi-year campaign to discover the merits of living in caves throughout the Middle East, hoping his life won’t end in a well-deserved condemnation, especially now that six separate Muslim Imams have issued fatwas justifying his death as an apostate.
Al Qaeda has gone from an organization capable of attacking military units and changing the policies of governments, to a group unable to coordinate attacks beyond the level of ordinary gangs.
The Taliban has been thrown out of control in Afghanistan, and most of their deadership is dead, and most of the survivors are in prison.
Saddam Hussein has been deposed, found hiding in a hole, arrested, arraigned, and has confessed to the murder or thousands of innocents.
The Baath party has ceased to exist in Iraq.
Afghanistan and Iraq have held free elections.
On the encouragement from President Bush, and with mobs holding signs and banners with his name and picture, crowds of Lebanese have shamed Syrian troops into leaving Lebanon.
In fear of an Operation Libya Freedom, Moamar Qaddafi has renounced his WMD programs and promised to respect the border with Chad.
The Democrats have lost seats in both houses of Congress ever since Bush took office.
Thousands of Americans died on September 11. But not in vain. They are remembered, and the memory of their loss has fed the birth of new hope in countless places.
Walk Down Another Road
*-*-*-*-*
What if Al Gore had won in 2000? Looking at the actual events since that election, and changing things not very much at all from the actual events, here’s how the world might have run:
2001
January 6 - The U.S. Congress, presided over by Vice President Al Gore as President of the Senate, certifies Gore’s controversial Electoral College victory, and thus as the winner of 2000 presidential election.
January 11 - The Federal Trade Commission approves the merger of AOL and Time Warner to form AOL Time Warner.
January 23-25 - UN war crimes prosecutor Del Ponte demands that Serbia hand over Slobodan Milošević.
February 9 - American submarine USS Greeneville accidentally strikes and sinks Japanese fishing vessel Ehime-Maru. President Gore personally apologizes and promises US reparations.
February 19 - A Oklahoma City bombing museum is dedicated at the Oklahoma City National Memorial. President Gore says America must clean its own house before looking to judge other nations about terrorism.
February 20 - FBI agent Robert Hanssen is arrested and charged with spying for Russia for 15 years.
April 1 - An EP-3E American spyplane collides with a Chinese fighter jet and is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Gore apologizes to the PRC and orders the U.S. Navy to pay half of a promised $75 Million penalty to the widow of Chinese pilot, Wang Wei. Gore also forbids US flights within 50 miles of the China coast without express exception. The government of Taiwan protests the action.
June 5 - Senator Jim Jeffords leaves the Republican party, an act which changes control of the United States Senate from the Republican party to the Democratic party
August 2 – Frank Lautenberg confirmed as the new FBI director.
September 6 - United States v. Microsoft: The United States Justice Department announces that it was adding additional charges, and will continue to seek harsh antitrust penalties.
September 11 - Around 3,000 killed in the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and rural Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
September 17 - The New York Stock Exchange reopens following the terrorist attacks in New York.
September 18 - The 2001 anthrax attacks commence as anthrax letters are mailed from Princeton, New Jersey to ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, the New York Post, and the National Enquirer.
October 4 - First case of anthrax in the US (attack) is announced by federal officials. President Gore orders the USPS shut down “until we can restore confidence in the mail.” The Dow plunges 600 points in one day on the news.
October 5 – Bill Clinton is appointed to be the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
November 12 - In New York City, American Airlines Flight 587 crashes minutes after takeoff from John F. Kennedy International Airport, killing all 260 on-board. The FAA, reportedly on orders from the White House, suspends all civilian international flights for ten days.
November 12 – Terrorists bomb the U.S. Embassy in Berlin. President Gore is outraged, but orders no retaliation.
November 13 –President Gore submits the Islam Civil Rights Bill to Congress, demanding special protection for Muslims in the United States against “the rising threat of hate crimes”.
December 2 – Dynegy offers to buy out Enron for $5.6 Billion.
December 13 – President Gore announces he is sending a delegate to sign the Kyoto Emissions Treaty in Kobe, Japan.
December 22 - A Paris-Miami flight is destroyed in mid-air by a bomb carried aboard by a terrorist, later identified as Richard Reid.
December 27 - The People's Republic of China is granted permanent normal trade status with the United States.
2002
January 9 - The Dynegy/Enron deal falls through. Enron announces it has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. The United States Department of Justice announces it is going to pursue a criminal investigation of Enron.
January 16 – The Washington Times reveals that the White House was involved in negotiations between Dynegy and Enron, and pushed hard to make the deal go through.
January 16 - The UN Security Council unanimously establishes an arms embargo and the freezing of assets of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida, and the Taliban.
January 22 - AOL Time Warner brings a federal suit against Microsoft seeking damages. Kmart Corp becomes the largest retailer in American history to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
March 1 – China invades Pakistan, “for security of the people”. President Gore has no comment. Israel breaks relations with China
March 19 – China invades Afghanistan. France says it regrets the action. PM Tony Blair warns that NATO regards the action with “grave concern”.
May 12 - Former President Jimmy Carter arrives in Cuba for a five-day visit with Fidel Castro becoming the first President of the United States, in or out of office, to visit the island since Castro's 1959 revolution. President Gore jokes “I wish I could be there with you”
July 14 - During Bastille Day celebrations, Jacques Chirac is assassinated; his murderers appear to be Arab, but are not immediately identified.
July 21 - Telecommunications giant WorldCom files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest such filing in United States history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls below 6,000. The Fed warns that the recession is becoming steeper.
September 12 – An unconfirmed report links the Gore Administration with the Enron scandal. The Gore Admnistration denies the reports, which are finding attention on the web and in the New York Times.
September 22 - The German federal election leaves Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, his Social Democrats and the Greens in power
October 2 – Terrorists bomb the family residence in Riyadh, Suadi Arabia.
October 12 - Bali bombing: Terrorists detonate massive bombs in two nightclubs in Kuta, Bali, killing 202 and injuring over 300.
October 24 - The Beltway snipers are arrested. President Gore demands stronger gun control laws. The Gore Administration repeatedly refuses to discuss the growing Enron scandal, now gaining interest in the mainstream press.
November 5 - U.S. Elections: The Republican Party maintains control of the House of Representatives and regains control of the Senate by a wide margin. The House is now 75% Republican, and 58 seats in the Senate now belong to the GOP. The Dow rallies, at 5,300 points.
November 8 - Iraq conducts manuevers, shows previously unknown troop numbers and arms. Questions rise about how and where Iraq gained these arms. China warns of a Middle East crisis.
November 21 - NATO Summit in Prague - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia invited to become NATO members.
November 25 - President Gore signs the Homeland Savings Act into law, scaling down existing military forces and promising to “end this insane arms race”.
2003
January 30 -The leaders of Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, and the Czech Republic release a statement, the letter of the eight, demonstrating concern of Iraq’s intentions in the Middle East.
January 30 - The Turkish parliment signs a “working agreement” with China for cooperative military exercises.
March 12 - WHO issues a global alert on SARS.
March 15 - Hu Jintao becomes president of the People's Republic of China, replacing Jiang Zemin. President Gore immediately places a congratulatory call to the new president.
March 19 – For the third time in American History, the House of Representatives impeaches a President. President Gore is impeached for alleged personal involvement in Obstruction of Justice in the Enron Scandal.
May 12 – The Senate trial of President Gore begins.
May 17 – For the first time in American History, a sitting President of the United States is convicted in an Impeachment trial, and is dismissed from office. Former Vice President Joe Lieberman is sworn in as President, immediately afterwhich Chief Justice Rehquist resigns his seat on the U.S. Supreme Court in protest of Gore’s conviction. President Lieberman nominates Hillary Clinton to become Vice President.. Despite rancorous hearings, Clinton is confirmed as Vice President.
October 7 - 2003 California recall: Voters recall Governor Gray Davis from office and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger to succeed him.
October 15 - China launches Shenzhou 5, their first manned space mission.
November 15 - Two car bombs explode simultaneously in Istanbul, Turkey targeting two synagogues, killing at least 25 people and wounding more than 300; Al-Qaida claims responsibility.
December 26 - A massive earthquake devastates southeastern Iran. Over 40,000 people are reported to have been killed in the city of Bam.
December 28 – Iraq invades Iran. China mobilizes troops.
2004
February 10 - The French National Assembly votes to pass a law banning religious items and clothing from schools.
February 12 - Same sex marriage in the United States: The City and County of San Francisco begins issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples as an act of civil disobedience. President Lieberman applauds the ruling.
February 20 – Iraq seizes Teheran. The Federation of Arab States (FAS) is announced, uniting Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon under Baath control.
March 2 – George W. Bush effectively clinches the U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.
March 17 - Organized violence breaks out over two days in Kosovo. Nineteen people are killed, 139 Serbian homes are burned, schools and businesses are vandalized, and over 30 orthodox monasteries and churches are burned and destroyed. President Lieberman says he “deplores the violence”, but orders no retaliation.
March 29 - Largest expansion of NATO to date, allowing Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia into the organization.
April 17 - Israeli invades Lebanon. In a surprise, China commends the action, and warns Iraq against “imperialist ambitions”.
June 5 - Former President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, dies at age 93.
August 3 - Statue of Liberty reopens after security improvements.
August 6 - A United Nations report that blames the government of Sudan for crimes against humanity in Darfur is released.
August 21 – terrorist kill 43 athletes and coaches at the Olympics in Athens, in a bombing attack.
September 1 - Chechen rebels take between 1,000 and 1,500 people hostage, mostly children, in a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. The hostage-takers demand the release of Chechen rebels imprisoned in neighbouring Ingushetia and the independence of Chechnya from Russia.
September 2 - The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 1559 calling for the removal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. This measure is largely aimed at Syrian troops.
September 3 - Russian forces end the siege at a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. At least 335 people (among which at least 32 of the approximately 40 hostage-takers) have been killed and at least 700 people have been injured.
November 2 - U.S. presidential election: Republican George W. Bush defeats President Joe Lieberman. Republicans make more gains in the House and Senate, controlling nearly 82% of the House, and 74% of the Senate.
December 8 - The biggest Chinese PC producer Lenovo announces its plan to purchase IBM's global PC business, making it the third largest world PC maker after Dell and Hewlett-Packard.
December 11 - Tests show that Ukrainian opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with a large dose of dioxin.
December 13 - Software giants Oracle Corporation and PeopleSoft to merge in a $10.3 billion deal, creating the second largest maker of business applications software.
2005
January 20 - George W. Bush is inaugurated in Washington D.C. 45th President of the United States.
Some twists, but in the end, not that different. It’s not as though the events make the man, or that Americans can be fooled forever.
What if Al Gore had won in 2000? Looking at the actual events since that election, and changing things not very much at all from the actual events, here’s how the world might have run:
2001
January 6 - The U.S. Congress, presided over by Vice President Al Gore as President of the Senate, certifies Gore’s controversial Electoral College victory, and thus as the winner of 2000 presidential election.
January 11 - The Federal Trade Commission approves the merger of AOL and Time Warner to form AOL Time Warner.
January 23-25 - UN war crimes prosecutor Del Ponte demands that Serbia hand over Slobodan Milošević.
February 9 - American submarine USS Greeneville accidentally strikes and sinks Japanese fishing vessel Ehime-Maru. President Gore personally apologizes and promises US reparations.
February 19 - A Oklahoma City bombing museum is dedicated at the Oklahoma City National Memorial. President Gore says America must clean its own house before looking to judge other nations about terrorism.
February 20 - FBI agent Robert Hanssen is arrested and charged with spying for Russia for 15 years.
April 1 - An EP-3E American spyplane collides with a Chinese fighter jet and is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Gore apologizes to the PRC and orders the U.S. Navy to pay half of a promised $75 Million penalty to the widow of Chinese pilot, Wang Wei. Gore also forbids US flights within 50 miles of the China coast without express exception. The government of Taiwan protests the action.
June 5 - Senator Jim Jeffords leaves the Republican party, an act which changes control of the United States Senate from the Republican party to the Democratic party
August 2 – Frank Lautenberg confirmed as the new FBI director.
September 6 - United States v. Microsoft: The United States Justice Department announces that it was adding additional charges, and will continue to seek harsh antitrust penalties.
September 11 - Around 3,000 killed in the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and rural Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
September 17 - The New York Stock Exchange reopens following the terrorist attacks in New York.
September 18 - The 2001 anthrax attacks commence as anthrax letters are mailed from Princeton, New Jersey to ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, the New York Post, and the National Enquirer.
October 4 - First case of anthrax in the US (attack) is announced by federal officials. President Gore orders the USPS shut down “until we can restore confidence in the mail.” The Dow plunges 600 points in one day on the news.
October 5 – Bill Clinton is appointed to be the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
November 12 - In New York City, American Airlines Flight 587 crashes minutes after takeoff from John F. Kennedy International Airport, killing all 260 on-board. The FAA, reportedly on orders from the White House, suspends all civilian international flights for ten days.
November 12 – Terrorists bomb the U.S. Embassy in Berlin. President Gore is outraged, but orders no retaliation.
November 13 –President Gore submits the Islam Civil Rights Bill to Congress, demanding special protection for Muslims in the United States against “the rising threat of hate crimes”.
December 2 – Dynegy offers to buy out Enron for $5.6 Billion.
December 13 – President Gore announces he is sending a delegate to sign the Kyoto Emissions Treaty in Kobe, Japan.
December 22 - A Paris-Miami flight is destroyed in mid-air by a bomb carried aboard by a terrorist, later identified as Richard Reid.
December 27 - The People's Republic of China is granted permanent normal trade status with the United States.
2002
January 9 - The Dynegy/Enron deal falls through. Enron announces it has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. The United States Department of Justice announces it is going to pursue a criminal investigation of Enron.
January 16 – The Washington Times reveals that the White House was involved in negotiations between Dynegy and Enron, and pushed hard to make the deal go through.
January 16 - The UN Security Council unanimously establishes an arms embargo and the freezing of assets of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida, and the Taliban.
January 22 - AOL Time Warner brings a federal suit against Microsoft seeking damages. Kmart Corp becomes the largest retailer in American history to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
March 1 – China invades Pakistan, “for security of the people”. President Gore has no comment. Israel breaks relations with China
March 19 – China invades Afghanistan. France says it regrets the action. PM Tony Blair warns that NATO regards the action with “grave concern”.
May 12 - Former President Jimmy Carter arrives in Cuba for a five-day visit with Fidel Castro becoming the first President of the United States, in or out of office, to visit the island since Castro's 1959 revolution. President Gore jokes “I wish I could be there with you”
July 14 - During Bastille Day celebrations, Jacques Chirac is assassinated; his murderers appear to be Arab, but are not immediately identified.
July 21 - Telecommunications giant WorldCom files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest such filing in United States history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls below 6,000. The Fed warns that the recession is becoming steeper.
September 12 – An unconfirmed report links the Gore Administration with the Enron scandal. The Gore Admnistration denies the reports, which are finding attention on the web and in the New York Times.
September 22 - The German federal election leaves Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, his Social Democrats and the Greens in power
October 2 – Terrorists bomb the family residence in Riyadh, Suadi Arabia.
October 12 - Bali bombing: Terrorists detonate massive bombs in two nightclubs in Kuta, Bali, killing 202 and injuring over 300.
October 24 - The Beltway snipers are arrested. President Gore demands stronger gun control laws. The Gore Administration repeatedly refuses to discuss the growing Enron scandal, now gaining interest in the mainstream press.
November 5 - U.S. Elections: The Republican Party maintains control of the House of Representatives and regains control of the Senate by a wide margin. The House is now 75% Republican, and 58 seats in the Senate now belong to the GOP. The Dow rallies, at 5,300 points.
November 8 - Iraq conducts manuevers, shows previously unknown troop numbers and arms. Questions rise about how and where Iraq gained these arms. China warns of a Middle East crisis.
November 21 - NATO Summit in Prague - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia invited to become NATO members.
November 25 - President Gore signs the Homeland Savings Act into law, scaling down existing military forces and promising to “end this insane arms race”.
2003
January 30 -The leaders of Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, and the Czech Republic release a statement, the letter of the eight, demonstrating concern of Iraq’s intentions in the Middle East.
January 30 - The Turkish parliment signs a “working agreement” with China for cooperative military exercises.
March 12 - WHO issues a global alert on SARS.
March 15 - Hu Jintao becomes president of the People's Republic of China, replacing Jiang Zemin. President Gore immediately places a congratulatory call to the new president.
March 19 – For the third time in American History, the House of Representatives impeaches a President. President Gore is impeached for alleged personal involvement in Obstruction of Justice in the Enron Scandal.
May 12 – The Senate trial of President Gore begins.
May 17 – For the first time in American History, a sitting President of the United States is convicted in an Impeachment trial, and is dismissed from office. Former Vice President Joe Lieberman is sworn in as President, immediately afterwhich Chief Justice Rehquist resigns his seat on the U.S. Supreme Court in protest of Gore’s conviction. President Lieberman nominates Hillary Clinton to become Vice President.. Despite rancorous hearings, Clinton is confirmed as Vice President.
October 7 - 2003 California recall: Voters recall Governor Gray Davis from office and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger to succeed him.
October 15 - China launches Shenzhou 5, their first manned space mission.
November 15 - Two car bombs explode simultaneously in Istanbul, Turkey targeting two synagogues, killing at least 25 people and wounding more than 300; Al-Qaida claims responsibility.
December 26 - A massive earthquake devastates southeastern Iran. Over 40,000 people are reported to have been killed in the city of Bam.
December 28 – Iraq invades Iran. China mobilizes troops.
2004
February 10 - The French National Assembly votes to pass a law banning religious items and clothing from schools.
February 12 - Same sex marriage in the United States: The City and County of San Francisco begins issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples as an act of civil disobedience. President Lieberman applauds the ruling.
February 20 – Iraq seizes Teheran. The Federation of Arab States (FAS) is announced, uniting Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon under Baath control.
March 2 – George W. Bush effectively clinches the U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.
March 17 - Organized violence breaks out over two days in Kosovo. Nineteen people are killed, 139 Serbian homes are burned, schools and businesses are vandalized, and over 30 orthodox monasteries and churches are burned and destroyed. President Lieberman says he “deplores the violence”, but orders no retaliation.
March 29 - Largest expansion of NATO to date, allowing Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia into the organization.
April 17 - Israeli invades Lebanon. In a surprise, China commends the action, and warns Iraq against “imperialist ambitions”.
June 5 - Former President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, dies at age 93.
August 3 - Statue of Liberty reopens after security improvements.
August 6 - A United Nations report that blames the government of Sudan for crimes against humanity in Darfur is released.
August 21 – terrorist kill 43 athletes and coaches at the Olympics in Athens, in a bombing attack.
September 1 - Chechen rebels take between 1,000 and 1,500 people hostage, mostly children, in a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. The hostage-takers demand the release of Chechen rebels imprisoned in neighbouring Ingushetia and the independence of Chechnya from Russia.
September 2 - The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 1559 calling for the removal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. This measure is largely aimed at Syrian troops.
September 3 - Russian forces end the siege at a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. At least 335 people (among which at least 32 of the approximately 40 hostage-takers) have been killed and at least 700 people have been injured.
November 2 - U.S. presidential election: Republican George W. Bush defeats President Joe Lieberman. Republicans make more gains in the House and Senate, controlling nearly 82% of the House, and 74% of the Senate.
December 8 - The biggest Chinese PC producer Lenovo announces its plan to purchase IBM's global PC business, making it the third largest world PC maker after Dell and Hewlett-Packard.
December 11 - Tests show that Ukrainian opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with a large dose of dioxin.
December 13 - Software giants Oracle Corporation and PeopleSoft to merge in a $10.3 billion deal, creating the second largest maker of business applications software.
2005
January 20 - George W. Bush is inaugurated in Washington D.C. 45th President of the United States.
Some twists, but in the end, not that different. It’s not as though the events make the man, or that Americans can be fooled forever.
Saturday, September 10, 2005
Disaster Response - The Basics
++++++++++++++
As various chattering make-up jobs on television and radio express their opinion of the job done to help the victims of Katrina, it is sadly obvious that meny don't understand how things are meant to work. Many TV anchors do not understand even the basic points, so I will mention it briefly here.
Disasters, in terms of relief, have five stages:
[] Preparation and planning
[] Pre-positioning
[] First responders and evacuation
[] Survival aid
[] Restoration and rebuilding
The first stage is critical. Every group which means to help must plan for what they will do, in advance. The people staffed, their assignment and authority, the tools and supplies provided, all need to planned ahead of time. In the case of Katrina, the basic levels of planning were at the LOCAL, STATE, and FEDERAL level. All three levels had to work to be effective.
As for pre-positioning, in the case of Hurricane Katrina, the authorities understood that the weather would reduce mobility as soon as the storm hit, so supplies and personnel had to put in place ahead of the storm, during the critical window between alert of the storm and its initial impact.
The first responders have two main duties; get people away from danger, and perform life-saving tasks. This falls again on three levels - the LOCAl authorities, who have the most people on-scene at the start and who know the terrain and conditions best; the STATE authorities, who have better equipment and supplies; and the FEDERAL authorities, who have specialized equipment for critical situations, but who must be told by local and state authorities what is needed, and where.
Survival aid is set up at aid stations, and the critical issue here is coordination between the on-scene authorities and the groups bringing aid.
And finally, federal aid in disasters after the initial rescues is generally focused on financial and administrative aid, which is much different from the short-term material needs, which are generally addressed by the on-scene local and state authorities.
People will have different views of how each group did its job, but these simple categories help illustrate what went right, what went wrong, and why.
As various chattering make-up jobs on television and radio express their opinion of the job done to help the victims of Katrina, it is sadly obvious that meny don't understand how things are meant to work. Many TV anchors do not understand even the basic points, so I will mention it briefly here.
Disasters, in terms of relief, have five stages:
[] Preparation and planning
[] Pre-positioning
[] First responders and evacuation
[] Survival aid
[] Restoration and rebuilding
The first stage is critical. Every group which means to help must plan for what they will do, in advance. The people staffed, their assignment and authority, the tools and supplies provided, all need to planned ahead of time. In the case of Katrina, the basic levels of planning were at the LOCAL, STATE, and FEDERAL level. All three levels had to work to be effective.
As for pre-positioning, in the case of Hurricane Katrina, the authorities understood that the weather would reduce mobility as soon as the storm hit, so supplies and personnel had to put in place ahead of the storm, during the critical window between alert of the storm and its initial impact.
The first responders have two main duties; get people away from danger, and perform life-saving tasks. This falls again on three levels - the LOCAl authorities, who have the most people on-scene at the start and who know the terrain and conditions best; the STATE authorities, who have better equipment and supplies; and the FEDERAL authorities, who have specialized equipment for critical situations, but who must be told by local and state authorities what is needed, and where.
Survival aid is set up at aid stations, and the critical issue here is coordination between the on-scene authorities and the groups bringing aid.
And finally, federal aid in disasters after the initial rescues is generally focused on financial and administrative aid, which is much different from the short-term material needs, which are generally addressed by the on-scene local and state authorities.
People will have different views of how each group did its job, but these simple categories help illustrate what went right, what went wrong, and why.
Friday, September 09, 2005
Should Louisiana Re-District?
[x]
Reader Jimmy Nix had an intriguing question:
“It would appear that there are many elected officials that no longer represent many voters in Louisiana. It seems likely that those voters will stay in whatever state they spend the next several months or years. Should Louisiana look at redistricting next year? The political and demographic makeup of Louisiana has truly changed overnight.”
Speaking for myself, I’d say ‘no’ in the immediate future. In the first place, because so many of the victims are in flux right now, and there’s no telling where a lot of folks will end up settling down. Also, with so many Louisianans coming to Texas, can you imagine the games certain Democrats would play with trying to get Texas redistricted, as well?
Reader Jimmy Nix had an intriguing question:
“It would appear that there are many elected officials that no longer represent many voters in Louisiana. It seems likely that those voters will stay in whatever state they spend the next several months or years. Should Louisiana look at redistricting next year? The political and demographic makeup of Louisiana has truly changed overnight.”
Speaking for myself, I’d say ‘no’ in the immediate future. In the first place, because so many of the victims are in flux right now, and there’s no telling where a lot of folks will end up settling down. Also, with so many Louisianans coming to Texas, can you imagine the games certain Democrats would play with trying to get Texas redistricted, as well?
Thursday, September 08, 2005
The Blame Game, Again
000
If you can’t say something nice about someone, well the Washington Post may want you to do their polling.
“A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken last Friday illustrates the point vividly. Just 17 percent of Democrats said they approved of the way Bush was handling the Katrina crisis while 74 percent of Republicans said they approved. About two in three Republicans rated the federal government's response as good or excellent, while two in three Democrats rated it not so good or poor.”
What a shock, huh?
btw, notice the poll came out six days ago, long before Blanco and Nagin started letting slip the facts of the matter...
If you can’t say something nice about someone, well the Washington Post may want you to do their polling.
“A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken last Friday illustrates the point vividly. Just 17 percent of Democrats said they approved of the way Bush was handling the Katrina crisis while 74 percent of Republicans said they approved. About two in three Republicans rated the federal government's response as good or excellent, while two in three Democrats rated it not so good or poor.”
What a shock, huh?
btw, notice the poll came out six days ago, long before Blanco and Nagin started letting slip the facts of the matter...
Lookie Here
\\\\\\\\
Anybody who likes to look up stuff has to love the Meta-Search. But these days it can get tiresome, trying to find relevant commentary on a topic. Well, have I got some words for you:
Technorati
Feedster
IceRocket
BlogPulse
These and several others are vying to be, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, the “Google of Blogs”.
Technology is my friend.
Anybody who likes to look up stuff has to love the Meta-Search. But these days it can get tiresome, trying to find relevant commentary on a topic. Well, have I got some words for you:
Technorati
Feedster
IceRocket
BlogPulse
These and several others are vying to be, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, the “Google of Blogs”.
Technology is my friend.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
An Insensitive Thought
-*-*-*-*-
OK, I will say in advance this is not a sensitive thing to say right now, but it's rolling around in my head and I have to post it to get it off my mind:
New Orleans had a lot of mediums and fortune tellers and psychics. Wouldn't you think, if they knew their business, they'd have been the first people out of town?
I guess, like Mayor Nagin, they just had other things on their mind that weekend.
OK, I will say in advance this is not a sensitive thing to say right now, but it's rolling around in my head and I have to post it to get it off my mind:
New Orleans had a lot of mediums and fortune tellers and psychics. Wouldn't you think, if they knew their business, they'd have been the first people out of town?
I guess, like Mayor Nagin, they just had other things on their mind that weekend.
Just The Facts
\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/
Readers may recall that I tried to put some perspective on Katrina with a timeline. A much better timeline, built on verifiable links, can be found here.
Rick Moran has done an outstanding job, and his evidence is absolutely compelling.
Readers may recall that I tried to put some perspective on Katrina with a timeline. A much better timeline, built on verifiable links, can be found here.
Rick Moran has done an outstanding job, and his evidence is absolutely compelling.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
The Rage of Fools
**********************
I’m tired, I admit it. The week past, with all the images of personal grief and loss has worn me out, and the finger-pointing by so many people, however predictable, has soured the flow of stories about giving and heroism I have heard from so many places. Thank God I live in Houston, where the evidence of kindness and hope is so profound, or I’d be screaming right now.
Which brings me to those catcalling malcontents. It occurs to me that they are, as usual, both missing a chance to rebuild some credibility, and missing the target they would like to stain with their bile. What I mean is, it is becoming clear that while it is puerile to point fingers at this stage, if one insists on doing so the available evidence indicates that President Bush and the Federal response was actually far swifter and appropriate than the actions taken on the State and Local levels. The people making all the noise could be working to call their own into accountability, but instead are chasing the President on nothing more than a paranoid fantasy.
And worse for the minions of name-calling, they have not realized that they have once again chosen the target which will do them the least good. Allowing for the moment the faint possibility that they can actually pin this on President Bush somehow (the private dream, I’m sure, of everyone at the CBS network), it won’t do them any good. President Bush, you see, is not running for office again, nor is Vice-President Cheney. No one from FEMA is running for Congress, the Senate, or the White House. So the sum effect of all this noise is like the poodle barking at the living room drapes in order to convince himself of his bravery. The other common factors are the bad odor and low standards of personal hygiene.
Ignore them. Give to the charities which best suit your ideals and look for the stories of hope and promise, but just ignore these fools, as you would any stupid animal with bad manners.
I’m tired, I admit it. The week past, with all the images of personal grief and loss has worn me out, and the finger-pointing by so many people, however predictable, has soured the flow of stories about giving and heroism I have heard from so many places. Thank God I live in Houston, where the evidence of kindness and hope is so profound, or I’d be screaming right now.
Which brings me to those catcalling malcontents. It occurs to me that they are, as usual, both missing a chance to rebuild some credibility, and missing the target they would like to stain with their bile. What I mean is, it is becoming clear that while it is puerile to point fingers at this stage, if one insists on doing so the available evidence indicates that President Bush and the Federal response was actually far swifter and appropriate than the actions taken on the State and Local levels. The people making all the noise could be working to call their own into accountability, but instead are chasing the President on nothing more than a paranoid fantasy.
And worse for the minions of name-calling, they have not realized that they have once again chosen the target which will do them the least good. Allowing for the moment the faint possibility that they can actually pin this on President Bush somehow (the private dream, I’m sure, of everyone at the CBS network), it won’t do them any good. President Bush, you see, is not running for office again, nor is Vice-President Cheney. No one from FEMA is running for Congress, the Senate, or the White House. So the sum effect of all this noise is like the poodle barking at the living room drapes in order to convince himself of his bravery. The other common factors are the bad odor and low standards of personal hygiene.
Ignore them. Give to the charities which best suit your ideals and look for the stories of hope and promise, but just ignore these fools, as you would any stupid animal with bad manners.
Monday, September 05, 2005
Labor Day - Thanks and Respect
[]-[]-[]
Today is Labor Day. Like most holidays, the way Labor Day is celebrated, has often missed the reason for the holiday. I would humbly submit that for 2005, it would be only fitting to take a moment to say thanks for the hard work of the following groups, without whose superlative efforts and dedication far more people would be far worse off, or simply dead:
The United States Coast Guard - Right about now, the Coasties deserve at least as much praise and respect as anyone else in the uniform of the United States. Thousands of people quite literally would be dead right now, except that the Coast Guard came for them.
The Doctors, Nurses, and Paramedics who stayed behind to help - Roughly 60 doctors, nurses, and paramedics from New Orleans area hospitals lost everything they had, just like everyone else, and they too want to know where their family is, but chose to stay behind to help the patients who arrived after others were evacuated. For six days now, these people have worked with little rest or food, supplies almost exhausted, for no pay beyond the knowledge that they were the difference between life and death for countless people.
The National Guard - The most food, the most road clearing, and the only way to restore order. If not for these men, the gangs would still be running New Orleans.
The Salvation Army - First on the scene, as always. Not a word of self-praise from them, as always. Well worth your donation, as always.
Hilton's Furniture and Gallery Furniture - now that clothing and food needs are being met, these guys have provided hundreds of real beds for victims to sleep in, and are collecting supplies for longer-term needs in Houston.
Countless churches, as always, have been collecting supplies, taking in people who need a place to stay, and even making plans to help victims rebuild their lives.
And of course, the American Red Cross, who is coordinating most of the relief, and helping families find each other across the nation.
If you see a representative from any of these groups, please consider taking a moment to stop and tell them you appreciate all they’ve done. And if you see anyone from a television station, please feel free to remind them that pointing fingers and spurring on spite and hatred is the last thing the Gulf Coast needs right now.
Today is Labor Day. Like most holidays, the way Labor Day is celebrated, has often missed the reason for the holiday. I would humbly submit that for 2005, it would be only fitting to take a moment to say thanks for the hard work of the following groups, without whose superlative efforts and dedication far more people would be far worse off, or simply dead:
The United States Coast Guard - Right about now, the Coasties deserve at least as much praise and respect as anyone else in the uniform of the United States. Thousands of people quite literally would be dead right now, except that the Coast Guard came for them.
The Doctors, Nurses, and Paramedics who stayed behind to help - Roughly 60 doctors, nurses, and paramedics from New Orleans area hospitals lost everything they had, just like everyone else, and they too want to know where their family is, but chose to stay behind to help the patients who arrived after others were evacuated. For six days now, these people have worked with little rest or food, supplies almost exhausted, for no pay beyond the knowledge that they were the difference between life and death for countless people.
The National Guard - The most food, the most road clearing, and the only way to restore order. If not for these men, the gangs would still be running New Orleans.
The Salvation Army - First on the scene, as always. Not a word of self-praise from them, as always. Well worth your donation, as always.
Hilton's Furniture and Gallery Furniture - now that clothing and food needs are being met, these guys have provided hundreds of real beds for victims to sleep in, and are collecting supplies for longer-term needs in Houston.
Countless churches, as always, have been collecting supplies, taking in people who need a place to stay, and even making plans to help victims rebuild their lives.
And of course, the American Red Cross, who is coordinating most of the relief, and helping families find each other across the nation.
If you see a representative from any of these groups, please consider taking a moment to stop and tell them you appreciate all they’ve done. And if you see anyone from a television station, please feel free to remind them that pointing fingers and spurring on spite and hatred is the last thing the Gulf Coast needs right now.
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Rebuilding
o-o-o-o-o
The question now comes down to what we do next. It will take a while to get to all the people in New Orleans, the rest of Louisiana, Mississippi, and the rest of the Gulf Coast hit so hard by the Hurricane, but the process is underway. Food and water and clothing are getting to people, and the distribution lines, though still crude, are getting the job done. The next step is getting long-time medical needs addressed. Texas has done a great job of addressing the needs of students, opening public schools to all the people fleeing Louisiana, and many colleges and universities across the country are accepting transfers from students at Tulane, LaSalle, and all the other Louisiana colleges and universities. The immediate needs of more than a million people hit by the devastation are being met.
The process moves on to what happens in the next half-year or so. Most of Katrina’s victims have not been able to sit down and consider what they want to do next, but the planning has to be in place. Fortunately, a number of corporations, churches, and groups experienced in long-term disaster relief have made preparations. Essentially, the people dislocated by the destruction will need jobs, transportation, and the structure of a routine; for many people, there is great emotional comfort in having things they can count on, including responsibility and duties, which enforce the personal sense of worth and identity. You are what you do.
The states of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana will rebuild. For all the destruction, the basic infrastructure of the states is in place and can be re-established. The greatest costs will be the roads, power grid, and coastal industries, like fishing and the ports. The city of New Orleans is another matter. It is well-understood that the city lies below sea level, and its position relative to Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf makes this a critical risk. Insurance companies have already expressed serious reservations about insuring any new construction or rebuilt homes and businesses in the city. Unless the federal government chooses to private special insurance, it is doubtful that businesses and homes can be rebuilt and operate in New Orleans to the scale of the city before. Even the construction of a seawall like the one protecting Galveston Texas would be insufficient for New Orleans, because of the elevation concerns.
There is also the risk of fraud. Disasters bring out the best and worst qualities in people, and this is also true in the matter of fraud. When a home is destroyed, it is sometimes difficult to confirm what personal property was lost. How much more difficult is it, to confirm the losses of an entire city? While most people would not try to manipulate the system to take money so badly needed by real victims, it’s historically true that fraud is a real element in disaster relief. Given the scale of this event, unique security measures will be necessary in addressing the needs of New Orleans’ citizens. There is, despite the best intentions of charities and generous donors, a limit to how much relief will be available.
I would not be surprised, personally, to see the victims of Katrina given two general options. Most will be encouraged to restart in the town where they have been relocated, meaning that the visitors to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and many other Texas cities will be likely to become citizens there. The option of returning to Louisiana will be there, but I expect that New Orleans will be, while rebuilt, much smaller in scale and much less centralized. The Corps of Engineers will have to examine the ground in the area, but it would be logical for new construction to be undertaken on ground with higher elevation and known to be stable, rather than trying to demolish the rubble in New Orleans, test the ground, reset everything from foundations up, and hope that the new buildings last. This has happened before, after all. In 1900, the city of Galveston Texas was a thriving center of commerce and culture. A Hurricane (no names were used for Hurricanes in 1900) estimated to be Category 4 in force, effectively destroyed the city, killing anywhere between eight and twelve thousand people (Census rolls were unclear, and many bodies had to be buried in mass graves or burned, to control the risk of disease. Like the New Orleans disaster, Galveston was isolated from contact, and so sending assistance was made impossible by the storm’s damage for a long time. In the end, the small town to Galveston’s north, Houston, was made the focus for rebuilding and relocation, and eventually became the far greater city. I could actually see the city of New Orleans out and out relocated about forty miles to the north of its old location, in a plan which would take more than ten years to happen, but which could capture the imagination and emotion of the state of Louisiana and the nation, a symbol of rebirth and a mix of old and new. The key would be the Port of New Orleans, which largely survived Katrina, and which would be the lifeblood of the newly built city, whether on the original land or in a new location with better stability.
But that’s just speculation, and will be driven by the feasibility of options yet to be confirmed. The rebuilding begins, as always, with examining and meeting long-term needs of the families. The Red Cross has begun to rejoin families, and to provide information on what has happened for victims to find out. As I mentioned above, job opportunities have been made available, and career counselors are preparing resources and building networks to help people not only find some job, but one fitted to their skills. The social assistance of churches and schools also helps the process, helping people to find a place of identity and acceptance, from which the sense of community grows.
The question now comes down to what we do next. It will take a while to get to all the people in New Orleans, the rest of Louisiana, Mississippi, and the rest of the Gulf Coast hit so hard by the Hurricane, but the process is underway. Food and water and clothing are getting to people, and the distribution lines, though still crude, are getting the job done. The next step is getting long-time medical needs addressed. Texas has done a great job of addressing the needs of students, opening public schools to all the people fleeing Louisiana, and many colleges and universities across the country are accepting transfers from students at Tulane, LaSalle, and all the other Louisiana colleges and universities. The immediate needs of more than a million people hit by the devastation are being met.
The process moves on to what happens in the next half-year or so. Most of Katrina’s victims have not been able to sit down and consider what they want to do next, but the planning has to be in place. Fortunately, a number of corporations, churches, and groups experienced in long-term disaster relief have made preparations. Essentially, the people dislocated by the destruction will need jobs, transportation, and the structure of a routine; for many people, there is great emotional comfort in having things they can count on, including responsibility and duties, which enforce the personal sense of worth and identity. You are what you do.
The states of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana will rebuild. For all the destruction, the basic infrastructure of the states is in place and can be re-established. The greatest costs will be the roads, power grid, and coastal industries, like fishing and the ports. The city of New Orleans is another matter. It is well-understood that the city lies below sea level, and its position relative to Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf makes this a critical risk. Insurance companies have already expressed serious reservations about insuring any new construction or rebuilt homes and businesses in the city. Unless the federal government chooses to private special insurance, it is doubtful that businesses and homes can be rebuilt and operate in New Orleans to the scale of the city before. Even the construction of a seawall like the one protecting Galveston Texas would be insufficient for New Orleans, because of the elevation concerns.
There is also the risk of fraud. Disasters bring out the best and worst qualities in people, and this is also true in the matter of fraud. When a home is destroyed, it is sometimes difficult to confirm what personal property was lost. How much more difficult is it, to confirm the losses of an entire city? While most people would not try to manipulate the system to take money so badly needed by real victims, it’s historically true that fraud is a real element in disaster relief. Given the scale of this event, unique security measures will be necessary in addressing the needs of New Orleans’ citizens. There is, despite the best intentions of charities and generous donors, a limit to how much relief will be available.
I would not be surprised, personally, to see the victims of Katrina given two general options. Most will be encouraged to restart in the town where they have been relocated, meaning that the visitors to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and many other Texas cities will be likely to become citizens there. The option of returning to Louisiana will be there, but I expect that New Orleans will be, while rebuilt, much smaller in scale and much less centralized. The Corps of Engineers will have to examine the ground in the area, but it would be logical for new construction to be undertaken on ground with higher elevation and known to be stable, rather than trying to demolish the rubble in New Orleans, test the ground, reset everything from foundations up, and hope that the new buildings last. This has happened before, after all. In 1900, the city of Galveston Texas was a thriving center of commerce and culture. A Hurricane (no names were used for Hurricanes in 1900) estimated to be Category 4 in force, effectively destroyed the city, killing anywhere between eight and twelve thousand people (Census rolls were unclear, and many bodies had to be buried in mass graves or burned, to control the risk of disease. Like the New Orleans disaster, Galveston was isolated from contact, and so sending assistance was made impossible by the storm’s damage for a long time. In the end, the small town to Galveston’s north, Houston, was made the focus for rebuilding and relocation, and eventually became the far greater city. I could actually see the city of New Orleans out and out relocated about forty miles to the north of its old location, in a plan which would take more than ten years to happen, but which could capture the imagination and emotion of the state of Louisiana and the nation, a symbol of rebirth and a mix of old and new. The key would be the Port of New Orleans, which largely survived Katrina, and which would be the lifeblood of the newly built city, whether on the original land or in a new location with better stability.
But that’s just speculation, and will be driven by the feasibility of options yet to be confirmed. The rebuilding begins, as always, with examining and meeting long-term needs of the families. The Red Cross has begun to rejoin families, and to provide information on what has happened for victims to find out. As I mentioned above, job opportunities have been made available, and career counselors are preparing resources and building networks to help people not only find some job, but one fitted to their skills. The social assistance of churches and schools also helps the process, helping people to find a place of identity and acceptance, from which the sense of community grows.
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