I have to say, at the start of this piece, that I am extremely skeptical of the claims made by those who so warn us of ‘Global Warming’. Part of it is their manner – I do not take kindly to being threatened or bullied, and I see a lot of that among the ‘Climate Change’ thugs, no matter how popular they may be in Hollywood or how well-funded their activists may be. I also do not think it is an effective manner to address the question, by declaring the debate to be over just when it really begins. If your case is solid, it can withstand questions, challenges, and doubts – telling me not to test your claim is really telling me you are a con artist.
There has been a lot of Science claimed in this debate, with a lot built on speculative projections by computers. You know, those same computers that year in and year out miss the number and scope and location of hurricanes we will see each summer, yet we’re supposed to buy a century-ahead projection based on the assumptions I just noted never get tested in the first place. I could go into the technobabble, but really that does not get us anywhere since it all comes down to chroming up a Yugo to make folks forget it’s a Yugo. Let’s get down to simple cases, I suggest.
Pollution is a very real problem, and like a certain other problem it’s obvious when you see it. If trees and grass die in the vicinity of a factory, it’s pretty reasonable to wonder what sort of effect that factory is having on the kids in that neighborhood. If the water turns funny colors and gets lumpy, you could reasonably question its safety. If the air turns funny colors and gets hard to breathe, it’s even more an obvious problem. There was a time when getting rid of particulates in the air, carcinogens in the water, and filtering out known poisons from the trash and by-products of a machine or building was right and needed. The advocates for the environment stood for us all then, but as I recall their chief method was to inform and debate, to encourage folks to ask questions and be skeptical. Funny how different the next generation of ‘environmentalists’ are about their method.
I say that because we hear a much different cry today. The air, the water, and the land are all much much cleaner in the United States and most “industrialized” nations. It sort of puts the environmentalists out of business, the way things have gone, but they found a new Bogeyman, nice and even scarier because they can – and do – claim that the whole planet is in peril, and there’s no time to do anything but what they tell us. It comes down to carbon.
Carbon is an element, no more harmful than Hydrogen or Iron or Oxygen in itself. A diamond is simply compressed carbon, coal is carbon that is burned for energy use, and other types of carbon find their way into food and clothing and all sorts of uses. It’s not harmful, judging by the history of the past few thousand years. There’s even a nice little symbiosis between animals and plants; we inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide, and plants consume carbon dioxide and emit oxygen. Again, that way of things has been around for thousands of years, probably longer but unlike the ecologists I try not to claim something where we cannot really verify it.
But all of a sudden, carbon emissions are supposed to be threatening the planet. The way this is supposed to happen is kind of like cross-genus evolution, there’s carbon emissions at the start, then somehow it all turns into earth-ending catastrophe. Horrible storms, droughts, floods, bad hair days, failed marriages and TV writers going on strike, it’s – well- every bad dream all rolled up neatly into a packaged crisis which can only be solved by, well, mindlessly agreeing to the dictates of a few “experts” who are so smart and important that we’re not even allowed to check their credentials. Sorry, but I’m one of those gotta-see-the-proof kind of guys, and from where I sit, a factory that emits carbon dioxide pretty much the same way my piehole does, is really a good thing, not a bad one.
Now, having said that, I also want to say that I try hard to be open-minded, and I am aware that Carbon can be dangerous in certain forms. Carbonic acid, Carbon Monoxide, Carbon Tetrachloride, it’s certainly possible for Carbon to take a form which is dangerous to folks, but I don’t see Carbon Dioxide that way, again because there’s really no hard evidence to show causality.
So here’s the thing, you Global Warming, Climate Change, or Gore Is God types or whatever you call yourselves this month: Present your evidence, support your position against challenges and questions, and demonstrate that your hypothesis is superior to any of the alternatives – and yes there are certainly alternative suggestions – and you could win us over. But if all you can do is make demands and refuse to support your claim, then please just go away and let the adults get back to work.
Friday, March 07, 2008
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
The Republican Primaries 2008: What Went Wrong?
Congratulations to Senator John McCain, who clinched the 2008 Republican Party Nominee for President of the United States last night, yet who is also a man disliked by a significant portion of the party and a man who generates enthusiasm less often than a year-old box of corn flakes. McCain’s advocates fall into three broad categories; those who emphasize his war credentials and ignore his record on other issues, those who are afraid of the Democrats’ nominee and want a Republican in the White House, any Republican, and so are willing to settle for McCain, and those who actually like censorship of political speech during an election, for a minority of the Senate to decide the fate of judicial nominees, and for the Global Warming Ponzi Scheme to be allowed to constrain business and rob taxpayers. How on earth did the Party of Ronald Reagan come to this?
I think a lot of this started early. Back in 2005, Patrick Ruffini ran a straw poll about GOP candidates, and I called him on a number of wrong claims and false statements. It was, in short, an informal shoot-the-bull poll with no value beyond a very local barometer of the moment, just as my occasional polls here should not be taken to represent the nation. But I called Ruffini on his attempt to play his poll into something it was not. The reason I bring up that dead cat carcass again, is because even there, I warned that Ruffini was pushing a false image, in his case the viability of Giuliani. It’s not that Rudy was a horrible choice, but that pushing him so early in a poll which closed off some far more conservative possibilities displayed the problem we saw this spring, a set of choices created by non-Conservatives, yet forced on Conservatives. Do you want the really liberal RINO, or perhaps the only-sometimes-RINO? Ruffini has inconsiderately moved or deleted his 2005 poll from his archives, so I cannot recite his list of options, but I can safely advise the public that Senator Fred Thompson, Secretary of State Condi Rice, Governor Jeb Bush, and other leading Conservative voices were – oh so conveniently – left off the poll. Not to belabor Mr. Ruffini too much, as he has every right to speak for the milktoast Republicans when he feels so inclined, but even from the start, Republicans were shown polls and surveys with no meat on the menu. There was, I will say bluntly, no seat at the table for a Reagan Republican.
There were, of course, a few plays for the Conservatives. There are so many Conservatives, that some GOP candidates would surely try for their support. Fred Thompson said the right things, but sadly he missed the crest of support in mid-2007, and by the time he started moving, he was too far behind, in media attention, campaign funds, and in developing his grassroots network. Mitt Romney also played up his newfound Conservatism, but he failed to convince enough Conservatives that he was the real deal. Same problem with Huckabee; the rhetoric just did not square with his record. McCain took the contrary path. Seeing that Conservatives were split, unable to find anyone who really reflected their ideals and priorities, he decided not to chase their support in the primaries, and instead made them his target, successfully drawing support from outside the party even as he chased the party’s mantle. The hypocrisy of such a strategy does not appear to bother Senator McCain.
So here we are; the Democrats are enemies of Conservatism, and now so is the Republican Party’s nominee. Fortunately, we are not bereft of hope. In a statement sure to be sneered at by non-Conservatives, I believe most devoutly that God Almighty favors most Conservative Ideals, and just as Ronald Reagan arrived to bring back America’s greatness after Carter’s disastrous term, I believe that our movement will yet again regain its support and strength. But Reagan had to wait for his moment, and before him Barry Goldwater was a true Conservative who never got to set foot in the promised land of a Conservative America. With McCain, Clinton, or Obama in the White House for at least four years, this nation will suffer for at least that long. The sole mitigation will be those Conservatives in the House and Senate, whose backbones and nerve will sorely be tested by the new reigning coalition of Liberals, Quislings, and McCainiacs. This crucible, though, may be the testing ground for the next Reagan.
I think a lot of this started early. Back in 2005, Patrick Ruffini ran a straw poll about GOP candidates, and I called him on a number of wrong claims and false statements. It was, in short, an informal shoot-the-bull poll with no value beyond a very local barometer of the moment, just as my occasional polls here should not be taken to represent the nation. But I called Ruffini on his attempt to play his poll into something it was not. The reason I bring up that dead cat carcass again, is because even there, I warned that Ruffini was pushing a false image, in his case the viability of Giuliani. It’s not that Rudy was a horrible choice, but that pushing him so early in a poll which closed off some far more conservative possibilities displayed the problem we saw this spring, a set of choices created by non-Conservatives, yet forced on Conservatives. Do you want the really liberal RINO, or perhaps the only-sometimes-RINO? Ruffini has inconsiderately moved or deleted his 2005 poll from his archives, so I cannot recite his list of options, but I can safely advise the public that Senator Fred Thompson, Secretary of State Condi Rice, Governor Jeb Bush, and other leading Conservative voices were – oh so conveniently – left off the poll. Not to belabor Mr. Ruffini too much, as he has every right to speak for the milktoast Republicans when he feels so inclined, but even from the start, Republicans were shown polls and surveys with no meat on the menu. There was, I will say bluntly, no seat at the table for a Reagan Republican.
There were, of course, a few plays for the Conservatives. There are so many Conservatives, that some GOP candidates would surely try for their support. Fred Thompson said the right things, but sadly he missed the crest of support in mid-2007, and by the time he started moving, he was too far behind, in media attention, campaign funds, and in developing his grassroots network. Mitt Romney also played up his newfound Conservatism, but he failed to convince enough Conservatives that he was the real deal. Same problem with Huckabee; the rhetoric just did not square with his record. McCain took the contrary path. Seeing that Conservatives were split, unable to find anyone who really reflected their ideals and priorities, he decided not to chase their support in the primaries, and instead made them his target, successfully drawing support from outside the party even as he chased the party’s mantle. The hypocrisy of such a strategy does not appear to bother Senator McCain.
So here we are; the Democrats are enemies of Conservatism, and now so is the Republican Party’s nominee. Fortunately, we are not bereft of hope. In a statement sure to be sneered at by non-Conservatives, I believe most devoutly that God Almighty favors most Conservative Ideals, and just as Ronald Reagan arrived to bring back America’s greatness after Carter’s disastrous term, I believe that our movement will yet again regain its support and strength. But Reagan had to wait for his moment, and before him Barry Goldwater was a true Conservative who never got to set foot in the promised land of a Conservative America. With McCain, Clinton, or Obama in the White House for at least four years, this nation will suffer for at least that long. The sole mitigation will be those Conservatives in the House and Senate, whose backbones and nerve will sorely be tested by the new reigning coalition of Liberals, Quislings, and McCainiacs. This crucible, though, may be the testing ground for the next Reagan.
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
The Virtue of Debt
The news has been pretty fear-based, lately. We’re in danger of economic collapse, nobody loves America, there’s no hope unless we elect Obama right now, and so on. Really, if panic were a commodity, it would be the hot ticket, wouldn’t it? Anyway, a lot of this comes down to the idea that people do not like being debt. That could be healthy, except of course for the modern pervasive belief that we are somehow entitled to whatever we want. And here we are.
I grew up believing in personal responsibility. We owe for what we use and have, and we owe both our parents for what we got from them, and to our children for the promise we make by having children. We owe our spouses the lifelong commitment we accepted at the alter, we owe our employers our best effort, and we owe our nation our loyalty and constant efforts to reach the ideals set so long ago, and which grow each generation as our ability grows. All this responsibility is difficult sometimes, but it’s a good thing. We need it.
This is what gets lost, when the media leads cries for someone to make all our troubles go away. That’s a lie in the first place, but even if it could be, Utopia is only another kind of prison. It’s in paying our own debts, that we find real freedom.
I grew up believing in personal responsibility. We owe for what we use and have, and we owe both our parents for what we got from them, and to our children for the promise we make by having children. We owe our spouses the lifelong commitment we accepted at the alter, we owe our employers our best effort, and we owe our nation our loyalty and constant efforts to reach the ideals set so long ago, and which grow each generation as our ability grows. All this responsibility is difficult sometimes, but it’s a good thing. We need it.
This is what gets lost, when the media leads cries for someone to make all our troubles go away. That’s a lie in the first place, but even if it could be, Utopia is only another kind of prison. It’s in paying our own debts, that we find real freedom.
Monday, March 03, 2008
The Party and the President
I am still not at all happy with the idea that John McCain is likely to win the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States. The man's hypocrisy regarding Free Speech is unacceptable, his fatuous buy-in to the Global Warming lie is disturbing, and his regular habit of attacking Conservatives in his policies and statements is insulting. The problem is, if McCain gets the Republican nomination and I do not vote for him in the fall, then I am effectively supporting the Democrats' nominee, either the criminal Hillary Clinton or the vacuous and completely unqualified Barack Obama. Not at all a good situation.
But with that said, there is a bigger problem. George W. Bush has his faults, but he was a good President, and he could have been great if the Republican Party had backed him more often, instead of stabbing him in the back on so many key votes. The reason they did this is simple enough; a mix of territorial greed and personal hubris. More than a couple leading Republicans got it into their head that they mattered more than the President of the United States, and they did all the could to punish President Bush for putting the nation first.
The Democrats do this too, of course. One reason the 2006 mid-term elections turned out not to be so earth-shaking, is the non-stop feuding between Pelosi and Reid and Dean and Schumer and so on. And it's not a new thing; the Congress under Clinton started out under control of the Democrats, who nonetheless saw no reason to respect President Clinton's role as the nation's leader.
Most Presidents, actually, have found Congress much more often an obstacle to their plans and policies than an ally. Reagan stands out because of his ability to go over the heads of Congress to the American people, but frankly no one today demonstrates such skill. No, Obama does not have that skill, because he lacks the moral weight and rhetorical wit to carry the day past the first wave of resistance. No, Hillary Clinton's shrill and cackling delivery will not achieve success with the people. McCain's angry bark will reflect a bitter, narcissistic man, not a leader.
The one thing I am sure of, for the 2009-12 term of our next President, is that the years will be rancorous and ineffective in the main, except where exceptional need or duplicitioous greed compels or sways some new venture. That, and that we the people will get the bill for it.
But with that said, there is a bigger problem. George W. Bush has his faults, but he was a good President, and he could have been great if the Republican Party had backed him more often, instead of stabbing him in the back on so many key votes. The reason they did this is simple enough; a mix of territorial greed and personal hubris. More than a couple leading Republicans got it into their head that they mattered more than the President of the United States, and they did all the could to punish President Bush for putting the nation first.
The Democrats do this too, of course. One reason the 2006 mid-term elections turned out not to be so earth-shaking, is the non-stop feuding between Pelosi and Reid and Dean and Schumer and so on. And it's not a new thing; the Congress under Clinton started out under control of the Democrats, who nonetheless saw no reason to respect President Clinton's role as the nation's leader.
Most Presidents, actually, have found Congress much more often an obstacle to their plans and policies than an ally. Reagan stands out because of his ability to go over the heads of Congress to the American people, but frankly no one today demonstrates such skill. No, Obama does not have that skill, because he lacks the moral weight and rhetorical wit to carry the day past the first wave of resistance. No, Hillary Clinton's shrill and cackling delivery will not achieve success with the people. McCain's angry bark will reflect a bitter, narcissistic man, not a leader.
The one thing I am sure of, for the 2009-12 term of our next President, is that the years will be rancorous and ineffective in the main, except where exceptional need or duplicitioous greed compels or sways some new venture. That, and that we the people will get the bill for it.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
McCain Blows It – Again
During an appearance in Cincinnati, Senator John McCain discovered that the talk radio host who was warming up the crowd referenced Senator Barack Hussein Obama by his full name, sharply criticized Obama’s connections to Chicago political sharks, and mocked Obama’s empty rhetoric in the face of the threat from Terrorism.
In response, McCain immediately apologized to the Democrats and repudiated the talk show host.
“I did not know about these remarks, but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them," he said. "My entire campaign I have treated Senator Obama and Senator (Hillary Rodham) Clinton with respect. I will continue to do that throughout this campaign."
McCain called both Democrats "honorable Americans" and said, "I want to dissociate myself with any disparaging remarks that may have been said about them."
This is much kinder than what Democrats have been doing, trashing President Bush with lies and character smears. One wonders why Senator McCain never rose to call the Democrats on their conduct, yet is so quick to apologize to them. One wonders, as well, why McCain’s determination to show respect to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, was never mirrored by respect for fellow Republicans Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.
At best, McCain blew yet another test of his ideals and character. At worst, he showed colors wholly unsuited to the GOP’s nominee for President. Either way McCain has once again damaged his prospects by attacking Conservatives instead of the real enemy.
In response, McCain immediately apologized to the Democrats and repudiated the talk show host.
“I did not know about these remarks, but I take responsibility for them. I repudiate them," he said. "My entire campaign I have treated Senator Obama and Senator (Hillary Rodham) Clinton with respect. I will continue to do that throughout this campaign."
McCain called both Democrats "honorable Americans" and said, "I want to dissociate myself with any disparaging remarks that may have been said about them."
This is much kinder than what Democrats have been doing, trashing President Bush with lies and character smears. One wonders why Senator McCain never rose to call the Democrats on their conduct, yet is so quick to apologize to them. One wonders, as well, why McCain’s determination to show respect to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, was never mirrored by respect for fellow Republicans Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.
At best, McCain blew yet another test of his ideals and character. At worst, he showed colors wholly unsuited to the GOP’s nominee for President. Either way McCain has once again damaged his prospects by attacking Conservatives instead of the real enemy.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
My Primary Vote
I am a firm believer in citizens’ duty to vote, so I went out today and early-voted in the Republican Primary. Partly because there are a lot of races at the state and local and county level which need attention, but also because even with the current weasel-fest, a vote matters.
So, besides the other races, platform decisions and issues, I cast my vote for Mitt Romney to be the Republican Party nominee for President. It occurred to me that it might be worth discussion, that decision.
I am still undecided, frankly, about whether I will vote for John McCain this fall if he – as expected – wins the GOP nomination. I fully understand the ramifications of not supporting the Republican in a race, where the Democrat would clearly be far worse. But for now, in the primary, the decision was easy – even out of the race, Romney did more to convince me he was fit and suited for the job, while McCain did not even make the effort to earn my vote.
When the votes are tallied, I fully expect McCain to have ‘won’ Texas. That makes my vote more important, than less. If enough people vote as I did, maybe McCain will ‘win’ by something less than a convincing margin, and it would send an appropriate message, for McCain to find that voters prefer some of the guys already out of the race, to the fake conservative from Arizona. John McCain might get my vote this fall, but he will have to earn it. I think there are many of us who feel that way, and it’s up to John to show he has learned that he needs conservatives to win and direct his campaign accordingly, not for us to knuckle under to threats or scare tactics.
So, besides the other races, platform decisions and issues, I cast my vote for Mitt Romney to be the Republican Party nominee for President. It occurred to me that it might be worth discussion, that decision.
I am still undecided, frankly, about whether I will vote for John McCain this fall if he – as expected – wins the GOP nomination. I fully understand the ramifications of not supporting the Republican in a race, where the Democrat would clearly be far worse. But for now, in the primary, the decision was easy – even out of the race, Romney did more to convince me he was fit and suited for the job, while McCain did not even make the effort to earn my vote.
When the votes are tallied, I fully expect McCain to have ‘won’ Texas. That makes my vote more important, than less. If enough people vote as I did, maybe McCain will ‘win’ by something less than a convincing margin, and it would send an appropriate message, for McCain to find that voters prefer some of the guys already out of the race, to the fake conservative from Arizona. John McCain might get my vote this fall, but he will have to earn it. I think there are many of us who feel that way, and it’s up to John to show he has learned that he needs conservatives to win and direct his campaign accordingly, not for us to knuckle under to threats or scare tactics.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Tragedy and a Worthy Gesture
A police officer in Dallas died this morning while escorting Senator Hillary Clinton's motorcade to a campaign rally. The officer's name has not yet been released.
In response to the tragedy, Senator Clinton said "We are just heartsick at this loss of life in the line of duty," and cancelled her next rally, saying such an event would be inappropriate under the circumstances. Senator Clinton said she plans to speak to the officer's family, adding "It is important that we respect and appreciate their service ... I certainly am grateful for all they do for me."
This is a tragic event, but also a suitable and worthy response from Senator Clinton.
In response to the tragedy, Senator Clinton said "We are just heartsick at this loss of life in the line of duty," and cancelled her next rally, saying such an event would be inappropriate under the circumstances. Senator Clinton said she plans to speak to the officer's family, adding "It is important that we respect and appreciate their service ... I certainly am grateful for all they do for me."
This is a tragic event, but also a suitable and worthy response from Senator Clinton.
Can Americans Respect a President They Don’t Like?
BDS: Bush Derangement Syndrome. The increasingly serious diagnosis of people who blame President George W. Bush for all manner of disappointments. The venomous hatred of President Bush goes all the way back to his Inauguration, and has included such notable milestones as a movie celebrating his possible assassination. Before Bush, President Clinton experienced a similarly odious treatment, accused of everything from complicity in rape and murder to deliberate treason against America. For at least half a generation, the President of the United States has been smeared by a substantial portion of the population, regardless of political affiliation or his actual conduct. To some degree, this is almost an American tradition – Abraham Lincoln was denounced in newspaper editorials as a buffoon and as a stupid man who did not understand the office he held. Grover Cleveland was the target of smear campaigns by corrupt politicians whose plans he opposed. Teddy Roosevelt was commonly regarded as incompetent and reckless, as was Andrew Jackson by his enemies (although Jackson’s enemies were a bit more anonymous, since Jackson held a formidable reputation as an accomplished duelist). Even so, the modern disparagement of the President seems well out of balance and fueled by a most unhealthy and irrational spite.
And this coming election may promise no better climate. Democrats have to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, with indications that supporters of the losing candidate may find it difficult to support the party nominee. The Republicans also face a schism, as John McCain’s vindictive and foolish rejection of Conservative Republicans (even as he pretends to be a Conservative himself) is increasingly likely to bring about their rejection of McCain in the Fall. All of the three significant candidates for President, therefore, have alienated and antagonized significant portions of the populace, generating sizable negatives. It would seem that a most unlikeable President is about to take office. What then?
Speaking for myself, I never liked President Clinton, but he was not wholly incompetent. Faint praise, I admit, but what I mean is that even where I disagreed with his decisions and policies, I never lost sight of the context, nor took to blaming him for obscene lies. I will not grace them here with specific mention, but many readers will recall the sorts of things which, on no evidence, President Clinton was accused. And as with Bush, more than a few people claimed Clinton was the worst of all the Presidents, forgetting Woodrow Wilson’s belief that the Constitution should be replaced, Andrew Johnson’s drunken binges, James Buchanan doing nothing to prevent the Civil War, or James Madison’s invasion of Canada. Clinton’s enemies ignored his successes, just as Bush’s do now. As much as I dislike any of the three main contenders to become the next President, I still make the effort to note their ability and skills, and to respect the office, and in time, hopefully the President. It is important to the Nation that we all make that effort.
And this coming election may promise no better climate. Democrats have to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, with indications that supporters of the losing candidate may find it difficult to support the party nominee. The Republicans also face a schism, as John McCain’s vindictive and foolish rejection of Conservative Republicans (even as he pretends to be a Conservative himself) is increasingly likely to bring about their rejection of McCain in the Fall. All of the three significant candidates for President, therefore, have alienated and antagonized significant portions of the populace, generating sizable negatives. It would seem that a most unlikeable President is about to take office. What then?
Speaking for myself, I never liked President Clinton, but he was not wholly incompetent. Faint praise, I admit, but what I mean is that even where I disagreed with his decisions and policies, I never lost sight of the context, nor took to blaming him for obscene lies. I will not grace them here with specific mention, but many readers will recall the sorts of things which, on no evidence, President Clinton was accused. And as with Bush, more than a few people claimed Clinton was the worst of all the Presidents, forgetting Woodrow Wilson’s belief that the Constitution should be replaced, Andrew Johnson’s drunken binges, James Buchanan doing nothing to prevent the Civil War, or James Madison’s invasion of Canada. Clinton’s enemies ignored his successes, just as Bush’s do now. As much as I dislike any of the three main contenders to become the next President, I still make the effort to note their ability and skills, and to respect the office, and in time, hopefully the President. It is important to the Nation that we all make that effort.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
2008 Battlefield States
Unless something very, very strange happens in the next few weeks, we know the contest for the fall election; Barack Obama versus John McCain, Vapid Hope matched against Angry Moderation. While both campaigns will guard against premature assumptions, both will also have begun planning strategy for the fall’s General Election.
I have said before that the Presidential election is not a single national contest, but a set of 51 regional contests, which produce the Electoral Vote tallies which determine the winner of the office. Even with the enormous amounts of money spent on the election, a candidate must still plan carefully where to allocate resources, especially since time and personal appearances remain limited. Some states are regarded as “safe”, states which will support the candidate in every forseeable condition, while others are considered too unlikely to be worth much effort. The states in between, the states which “belong” to the candidate but which may be lost, or the states which “belong” to the opponent but which may be won, and the states which seem undecided, these are targeted for varying degrees of attention, promises, and displays of appreciation, and are called the battleground states. The question early on for candidates, is knowing which states will fall into this category, because that varies from election to election. More than a few candidates have lost elections because they did not correctly identify their weak spots and opportunities. And it is not as easy as some people might think to work out the territory which matters.
Take California, for example. With 55 Electoral Votes, California is the biggest of all prizes, and so would seem to be a smart place to invest time and money. But is it? After all, the last four elections saw California choose the Democrat, and by 10 or more points of the popular vote each time. That would seem to suggest that California is locked up for the Democrats, but then again, maybe not. Kerry took California by 10 points in 2004, but that was 4 points closer than Clinton’s margin of victory in 1996. And for comparison, Reagan took California by a 17 point margin in both 1980 and 1984. Even GHW Bush won California in 1988, so there is historical evidence to suggest that the right conditions could put it into play. How does someone properly weigh the benefits and costs of spending resources in a state? One way is to examine the historical behavior of a state, and from that determine the probability of a positive or negative reaction to unusual focus on that state. This essay examines that historical structure. It does not project a winner, nor does it weigh the specific positions of any particular candidate, because its purpose is to suggest areas of interest to each of the two major political parties.
I started by noting the popular vote results per state for every Presidential election from 1948 to 2004. I chose that range for two reasons; the world has changed significantly over time, and it is not reasonable to assume that election conditions in, say, 1880, are really comparable to the modern condition. World War 2 was the Rubicon in many ways to American election development, and so the 15 Presidential elections after that war stand as the best relative indicators as to the political identity of each state. Also, the 60-year time frame covers the majority of voter demographics, and so is a reasonable representative of how voters as a whole have behaved. I took the popular vote collected by each party and rounded it up or down, then compared votes for a whole integer margin. This means that ‘0’ margins exist, which are treated as statistical ties for this purpose. That information provided averages, largest and smallest margins of victory and defeat, and of course the streak of victories by a party. But that is just the start. The margin from one election could also be compared to the margin for the next, and the change in results represents variance. Delaware, for example, supported Reagan by 2% in 1980, but 20% in 1984, which is an 18% gain for the Republicans. Bush won Delaware in 1988, but only by 12%, which was an 8% gain for Democrats, and so on. Taking each variance and squaring it, summing up those squared-variance tallies and then finding the square root give the Standard Deviation of each state’s Popular Vote margin. The smallest SD was 6.254 for the District of Columbia, and the largest SD was 42.838 for Mississippi. This is because D.C.’s margin of victory has never changed by more than 9 points, while Mississippi’s margin of victory changed by 60 points or more on four occasions. The ten most volatile SD’s are as follows:
1. Mississippi – 42.838
2. Alabama – 33.388
3. Georgia – 30.988
4. Hawaii – 29.281
5. Arkansas – 27.575
6. Oklahoma – 24.751
7. Louisiana – 24.648
8. Maine – 24.150
9. Rhode Island – 23.469
10. South Carolina – 23.266
The SD is an important indicator of historical volatility, but it may not be a valid indicator of current trends. Of the top 10 states for volatility, five are from the Deep South which rebelled at one time against both the Democrats and Republicans; Mississippi’s volatility, for example, ranged between 60 and 85 points between 1964 and 1976, but the SD for 1980-2004 is only 11.661. Reweighting the SDs to increase proportionately as the time frame approaches the present, then dividing that result by the consecutive victories by the party which last won the state produced the following revised 10 most and least volatile SD’s:
MOST VOLATILE
1. Florida, 18.745
2. New Hampshire, 18.045
3. Arkansas, 13.622
4. New Mexico, 13.368
5. Iowa, 12.819
6. Oregon, 12.065
7. Wisconsin, 10.971
8. Louisiana, 10.473
9. West Virginia, 9.744
10. Tennessee, 9.744
LEAST VOLATILE
1. District of Columbia, 1.200
2. Indiana, 1.295
3. Delaware, 1.344
4. Nebraska, 1.405
5. South Dakota, 1.432
6. Virginia, 1.500
7. Idaho, 1.544
8. Kansas, 1.566
9. Utah, 1.639
10. North Dakota, 1.712
It’s hardly a surprise to see Florida at the top, but it may surprise some folks to see Oregon, Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Tennessee in play. It is also interesting, to me at least, to see that the numbers indicate that states like Virginia and Indiana are not budging.
But there is also another indicator, a simpler one, about which states are likely to switch. I took the SD and the weighted SD, and divided each by the margin from the 2004 election. If the margin was greater than the SD or weighted SD, it is very unlikely that the state would switch in 2008. That produced these top 10 lists:
STATES MOST LIKELY TO SWITCH IN 2008
SD
1. New Hampshire, 21.092
2. Alaska, 21.047
3. Iowa, 18.787
4. New Mexico, 16.404
5. Wisconsin, 15.672
6. Arizona, 13.06
7. Nevada, 9.474
8. Ohio, 8.676
9. Michigan, 5.235
10. Pennsylvania, 5.157
Weighted SD
1. New Hampshire, 18.045
2. Alaska, 17.901
3. New Mexico, 13.368
4. Iowa, 12.819
5. Wisconsin, 10.971
6. Nevada, 8.182
7. Ohio, 7.083
8. Michigan, 4.323
9. Pennsylvania, 3.885
10. Florida, 3.749
STATES LEAST LIKELY TO SWITCH IN 2008
SD
1. District of Columbia, 0.301
2. Utah, 0.406
3. Idaho, 0.461
4. Wyoming, 0.501
5. Nebraska, 0.569
6. North Dakota, 0.757
7. Indiana, 0.760
8. Oklahoma, 0.773
9. Kansas, 0.780
10. Massachusetts, 0.782
Weighted SD
1. District of Columbia, 0.059
2. Utah, 0.356
3. Idaho, 0.406
4. Nebraska, 0.426
5. Wyoming, 0.473
6. Massachusetts, 0.568
7. North Dakota, 0.612
8. Kansas, 0.626
9. Oklahoma, 0.642
10. Indiana, 0.648
Twelve states have a less than 1% chance of switching in 2008, by the SD calculation, and by the weighted SD eighteen states have less than a 1% chance of switching in 2008.
But that still leaves the question of where candidates should focus their resources. The final answer I found, took the average of the Standard Deviation of popular vote margins and the Weighted Standard Deviation, and multiplied that number by the portion each state has of the total 538 Electoral Votes. That produced the following target list:
1 Ohio 29.292
2 Wisconsin 24.761
3 Iowa 20.562
4 Florida 19.916
5 Pennsylvania 17.647
6 Michigan 15.101
7 New Hampshire 14.549
8 New Mexico 13.835
9 Arizona 13.219
10 California 11.981
11 Alaska 10.859
12 Nevada 8.204
13 Minnesota 8.091
14 New Jersey 7.202
15 Texas 5.587
16 Colorado 5.473
17 New York 5.333
18 Georgia 5.145
19 Illinois 4.922
20 Missouri 4.769
21 Oregon 4.603
22 North Carolina 4.578
23 Virginia 4.318
24 Washington 3.821
25 Arkansas 3.056
26 Tennessee 2.860
27 Louisiana 2.542
28 Maryland 2.329
29 Connecticut 2.235
30 Mississippi 2.126
31 Hawaii 2.003
32 South Carolina 1.914
33 Alabama 1.851
34 Massachusetts 1.506
35 West Virginia 1.493
36 Indiana 1.439
37 Kentucky 1.432
38 Maine 1.251
39 Oklahoma 0.921
40 Kansas 0.784
41 Rhode Island 0.758
42 District Columbia 0.599
43 Delaware 0.559
44 Vermont 0.559
45 Nebraska 0.462
46 Montana 0.436
47 South Dakota 0.416
48 North Dakota 0.382
49 Utah 0.354
50 Idaho 0.322
51 Wyoming 0.272
Both parties, therefore, should be expected to focus primarily on Ohio, followed by Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
I have said before that the Presidential election is not a single national contest, but a set of 51 regional contests, which produce the Electoral Vote tallies which determine the winner of the office. Even with the enormous amounts of money spent on the election, a candidate must still plan carefully where to allocate resources, especially since time and personal appearances remain limited. Some states are regarded as “safe”, states which will support the candidate in every forseeable condition, while others are considered too unlikely to be worth much effort. The states in between, the states which “belong” to the candidate but which may be lost, or the states which “belong” to the opponent but which may be won, and the states which seem undecided, these are targeted for varying degrees of attention, promises, and displays of appreciation, and are called the battleground states. The question early on for candidates, is knowing which states will fall into this category, because that varies from election to election. More than a few candidates have lost elections because they did not correctly identify their weak spots and opportunities. And it is not as easy as some people might think to work out the territory which matters.
Take California, for example. With 55 Electoral Votes, California is the biggest of all prizes, and so would seem to be a smart place to invest time and money. But is it? After all, the last four elections saw California choose the Democrat, and by 10 or more points of the popular vote each time. That would seem to suggest that California is locked up for the Democrats, but then again, maybe not. Kerry took California by 10 points in 2004, but that was 4 points closer than Clinton’s margin of victory in 1996. And for comparison, Reagan took California by a 17 point margin in both 1980 and 1984. Even GHW Bush won California in 1988, so there is historical evidence to suggest that the right conditions could put it into play. How does someone properly weigh the benefits and costs of spending resources in a state? One way is to examine the historical behavior of a state, and from that determine the probability of a positive or negative reaction to unusual focus on that state. This essay examines that historical structure. It does not project a winner, nor does it weigh the specific positions of any particular candidate, because its purpose is to suggest areas of interest to each of the two major political parties.
I started by noting the popular vote results per state for every Presidential election from 1948 to 2004. I chose that range for two reasons; the world has changed significantly over time, and it is not reasonable to assume that election conditions in, say, 1880, are really comparable to the modern condition. World War 2 was the Rubicon in many ways to American election development, and so the 15 Presidential elections after that war stand as the best relative indicators as to the political identity of each state. Also, the 60-year time frame covers the majority of voter demographics, and so is a reasonable representative of how voters as a whole have behaved. I took the popular vote collected by each party and rounded it up or down, then compared votes for a whole integer margin. This means that ‘0’ margins exist, which are treated as statistical ties for this purpose. That information provided averages, largest and smallest margins of victory and defeat, and of course the streak of victories by a party. But that is just the start. The margin from one election could also be compared to the margin for the next, and the change in results represents variance. Delaware, for example, supported Reagan by 2% in 1980, but 20% in 1984, which is an 18% gain for the Republicans. Bush won Delaware in 1988, but only by 12%, which was an 8% gain for Democrats, and so on. Taking each variance and squaring it, summing up those squared-variance tallies and then finding the square root give the Standard Deviation of each state’s Popular Vote margin. The smallest SD was 6.254 for the District of Columbia, and the largest SD was 42.838 for Mississippi. This is because D.C.’s margin of victory has never changed by more than 9 points, while Mississippi’s margin of victory changed by 60 points or more on four occasions. The ten most volatile SD’s are as follows:
1. Mississippi – 42.838
2. Alabama – 33.388
3. Georgia – 30.988
4. Hawaii – 29.281
5. Arkansas – 27.575
6. Oklahoma – 24.751
7. Louisiana – 24.648
8. Maine – 24.150
9. Rhode Island – 23.469
10. South Carolina – 23.266
The SD is an important indicator of historical volatility, but it may not be a valid indicator of current trends. Of the top 10 states for volatility, five are from the Deep South which rebelled at one time against both the Democrats and Republicans; Mississippi’s volatility, for example, ranged between 60 and 85 points between 1964 and 1976, but the SD for 1980-2004 is only 11.661. Reweighting the SDs to increase proportionately as the time frame approaches the present, then dividing that result by the consecutive victories by the party which last won the state produced the following revised 10 most and least volatile SD’s:
MOST VOLATILE
1. Florida, 18.745
2. New Hampshire, 18.045
3. Arkansas, 13.622
4. New Mexico, 13.368
5. Iowa, 12.819
6. Oregon, 12.065
7. Wisconsin, 10.971
8. Louisiana, 10.473
9. West Virginia, 9.744
10. Tennessee, 9.744
LEAST VOLATILE
1. District of Columbia, 1.200
2. Indiana, 1.295
3. Delaware, 1.344
4. Nebraska, 1.405
5. South Dakota, 1.432
6. Virginia, 1.500
7. Idaho, 1.544
8. Kansas, 1.566
9. Utah, 1.639
10. North Dakota, 1.712
It’s hardly a surprise to see Florida at the top, but it may surprise some folks to see Oregon, Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Tennessee in play. It is also interesting, to me at least, to see that the numbers indicate that states like Virginia and Indiana are not budging.
But there is also another indicator, a simpler one, about which states are likely to switch. I took the SD and the weighted SD, and divided each by the margin from the 2004 election. If the margin was greater than the SD or weighted SD, it is very unlikely that the state would switch in 2008. That produced these top 10 lists:
STATES MOST LIKELY TO SWITCH IN 2008
SD
1. New Hampshire, 21.092
2. Alaska, 21.047
3. Iowa, 18.787
4. New Mexico, 16.404
5. Wisconsin, 15.672
6. Arizona, 13.06
7. Nevada, 9.474
8. Ohio, 8.676
9. Michigan, 5.235
10. Pennsylvania, 5.157
Weighted SD
1. New Hampshire, 18.045
2. Alaska, 17.901
3. New Mexico, 13.368
4. Iowa, 12.819
5. Wisconsin, 10.971
6. Nevada, 8.182
7. Ohio, 7.083
8. Michigan, 4.323
9. Pennsylvania, 3.885
10. Florida, 3.749
STATES LEAST LIKELY TO SWITCH IN 2008
SD
1. District of Columbia, 0.301
2. Utah, 0.406
3. Idaho, 0.461
4. Wyoming, 0.501
5. Nebraska, 0.569
6. North Dakota, 0.757
7. Indiana, 0.760
8. Oklahoma, 0.773
9. Kansas, 0.780
10. Massachusetts, 0.782
Weighted SD
1. District of Columbia, 0.059
2. Utah, 0.356
3. Idaho, 0.406
4. Nebraska, 0.426
5. Wyoming, 0.473
6. Massachusetts, 0.568
7. North Dakota, 0.612
8. Kansas, 0.626
9. Oklahoma, 0.642
10. Indiana, 0.648
Twelve states have a less than 1% chance of switching in 2008, by the SD calculation, and by the weighted SD eighteen states have less than a 1% chance of switching in 2008.
But that still leaves the question of where candidates should focus their resources. The final answer I found, took the average of the Standard Deviation of popular vote margins and the Weighted Standard Deviation, and multiplied that number by the portion each state has of the total 538 Electoral Votes. That produced the following target list:
1 Ohio 29.292
2 Wisconsin 24.761
3 Iowa 20.562
4 Florida 19.916
5 Pennsylvania 17.647
6 Michigan 15.101
7 New Hampshire 14.549
8 New Mexico 13.835
9 Arizona 13.219
10 California 11.981
11 Alaska 10.859
12 Nevada 8.204
13 Minnesota 8.091
14 New Jersey 7.202
15 Texas 5.587
16 Colorado 5.473
17 New York 5.333
18 Georgia 5.145
19 Illinois 4.922
20 Missouri 4.769
21 Oregon 4.603
22 North Carolina 4.578
23 Virginia 4.318
24 Washington 3.821
25 Arkansas 3.056
26 Tennessee 2.860
27 Louisiana 2.542
28 Maryland 2.329
29 Connecticut 2.235
30 Mississippi 2.126
31 Hawaii 2.003
32 South Carolina 1.914
33 Alabama 1.851
34 Massachusetts 1.506
35 West Virginia 1.493
36 Indiana 1.439
37 Kentucky 1.432
38 Maine 1.251
39 Oklahoma 0.921
40 Kansas 0.784
41 Rhode Island 0.758
42 District Columbia 0.599
43 Delaware 0.559
44 Vermont 0.559
45 Nebraska 0.462
46 Montana 0.436
47 South Dakota 0.416
48 North Dakota 0.382
49 Utah 0.354
50 Idaho 0.322
51 Wyoming 0.272
Both parties, therefore, should be expected to focus primarily on Ohio, followed by Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Monday, February 18, 2008
The Politics of American War
One aspect of American Politics which deserves discussion this election cycle, is the way that wars are treated as leading issues. The United States has been at war in various forms for most of its history, and so it is hardly surprising that the course of a given war will be a factor in elections, especially of the President. This article is necessarily only a brief overview, with consideration of the record focused on the 2008 Presidential election.
From the political perspective, wars with regard to American politics fall into one of three broad categories; minor successful wars with little perceived risk, major wars of consequence, or costly wars which should have been avoided, in the sense of the common opinion. Examples of the first type include the Spanish-American War, Grenada, and Desert Storm. Examples of the second type include the War for Independence, the Civil War, and World War 2. Examples of the third type include World War 1, Korea, and Vietnam. I am not saying that one of these wars is more just or worthwhile than the others, but noting the political spin on the war.
For the first group, it is worth noting that the Spanish-American, Grenda, and Desert Storm actions did not significantly hurt or improve the political fortunes of the President in office at the time. The quick decision of each conflict led to the perceived message that the conflict was insignificant, and quickly faded from public interest. For the second group, the wars were controversial at the time they were fought, but in later generations the conflict elevated the image of the President in office, although it must be emphasized that the President does not appear to have gained immediate political advantage. In the third case, the war’s unpopularity took its toll on the President’s support. World War 1 effectively convinced Americans to put Republicans back in the White House, as did Korea, and Vietnam led to deep mistrust of both parties. Consequently, while no political party should expect to make gains from a military conflict in the short-term, the danger of political cost from a war must be considered.
In this context, the constant effort by the Democrats to cast the War in Iraq as the same as Vietnam is understood. The Democrats claimed that their 2006 midterm election gains were the result of a ‘referendum’ on Iraq. It must noted, however, that before the 2002 and 2004 elections, Democrats made the same claim, so the claim may properly be regarded with a large degree of skepticism. It is valid, however, to note the effort to tie the Iraq war with Vietnam, well into its sixth year (the propaganda by the Left actually began several months before the resumption of hostilities) has undoubtedly swayed opinion in various places, and fractured national unity along party lines. For this discussion, it is not necessary to reach a specific degree of influence by such rhetorical efforts, but it is relevant to the present election to consider how this spin is likely to influence future military decisions by the next Administration.
From the political perspective, wars with regard to American politics fall into one of three broad categories; minor successful wars with little perceived risk, major wars of consequence, or costly wars which should have been avoided, in the sense of the common opinion. Examples of the first type include the Spanish-American War, Grenada, and Desert Storm. Examples of the second type include the War for Independence, the Civil War, and World War 2. Examples of the third type include World War 1, Korea, and Vietnam. I am not saying that one of these wars is more just or worthwhile than the others, but noting the political spin on the war.
For the first group, it is worth noting that the Spanish-American, Grenda, and Desert Storm actions did not significantly hurt or improve the political fortunes of the President in office at the time. The quick decision of each conflict led to the perceived message that the conflict was insignificant, and quickly faded from public interest. For the second group, the wars were controversial at the time they were fought, but in later generations the conflict elevated the image of the President in office, although it must be emphasized that the President does not appear to have gained immediate political advantage. In the third case, the war’s unpopularity took its toll on the President’s support. World War 1 effectively convinced Americans to put Republicans back in the White House, as did Korea, and Vietnam led to deep mistrust of both parties. Consequently, while no political party should expect to make gains from a military conflict in the short-term, the danger of political cost from a war must be considered.
In this context, the constant effort by the Democrats to cast the War in Iraq as the same as Vietnam is understood. The Democrats claimed that their 2006 midterm election gains were the result of a ‘referendum’ on Iraq. It must noted, however, that before the 2002 and 2004 elections, Democrats made the same claim, so the claim may properly be regarded with a large degree of skepticism. It is valid, however, to note the effort to tie the Iraq war with Vietnam, well into its sixth year (the propaganda by the Left actually began several months before the resumption of hostilities) has undoubtedly swayed opinion in various places, and fractured national unity along party lines. For this discussion, it is not necessary to reach a specific degree of influence by such rhetorical efforts, but it is relevant to the present election to consider how this spin is likely to influence future military decisions by the next Administration.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Can a Regular American Win the White House?
There is one truth this year that I believe people of all parties and political opinion can agree upon – there is no one candidate in the race for President, which perfectly embodies the ideals of what the job needs. One candidate is too vague in his policies, another is too strident in hers, still another attacks the base of the party whose icon he claims to hold as his mentor, and yet another pretends his record supports his promises, even though the actual facts work against his claims. It is no surprise, that even as both major parties stress the need for high turnout in the elections, both parties are risking a significant ‘stay-home’ protest from disillusioned voters. And almost no one is really comfortable with the remaining selection of candidates.
I think I know part, at least, of what went wrong. It’s not just the Democrats or the Republicans and the judges they would appoint, or how they would handle National Security, or Taxes or Immigration, or so on. Those issues are important, in some cases vitally so, yet on both sides of the aisle we see a lot of discontent, even with the leading candidates saying all the “right” things. So, I would suggest that there is something more, something that has not been considered to any great degree. And that ‘something’ I would offer, is that the one big problem the average voter has with any and all of the crop of Presidential candidates, is that none of them has much at all in common with us.
Look at the brief resumes of the major candidates:
Barack Obama – Parents above-average income, went to private school (Punahou Academy). Worked 2 years after college (Political Science major) at a white-collar corporation job, then became community activist in Chicago. Harvard Law School, so he’s a lawyer. Practiced Civil Rights law, elected as State Senator, lost run for Congress in 2000, won U.S. Senate seat in 2004. Wrote three books as Senator, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth about $1.3 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=12782369
http://nymag.com/news/politics/encyclopedia/personalwealth/
Hillary Clinton – Parents wealthy, went to Wellesley and Yale (Political Science, Law). Attorney with Rose Law Firm, staff of Nixon Impeachment committee, First Lady of Arkansas 1979-81, 1983-92, First Lady of White House 1993-2000, won U.S. Senate seat in 2000. Wrote four books as First lady, got the book deals on the basis of her public image. Personal wealth about $34.9 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=9251306
http://nymag.com/news/politics/encyclopedia/personalwealth/
John McCain – Son of Admiral John Sydney McCain (CINCPAC), graduated U.S. Naval Academy (1958) and National War College (1974). Shot down 1967 over North Vietnam, famous for resisting torture and building morale among fellow POWs. Suffered six years before release to U.S. Elected U.S. Representative 1982, won U.S. Senate seat in 1986. Famous for putting his personal goals first. Wote four books as Senator, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth around $2.5 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=9542249
http://www.azcentral.com/news/specials/mccain/
Mike Huckabee – Blue-collar parents, degree in Religion from Ouchita Baptist University, Masters in Theology from Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary. Church Pastor, then head of Baptist State Convention of Arkansas. Elected Lt. Governor of Arkansas 1993-6, Governor 1996-2007. Wrote five books as Governor, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth around $0.9 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=261446
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/fundraising-about-who-you-know/2008/01/02/1198949900099.html
As usual, the Democrats as a group turn out to be the rich elitists. Sure, Mitt Romney had a pile of money, but he was the only really rich Republican, while the high-profile Democrats include John Edwards ($31 million), Al Gore ($120 million), and Ted Kennedy ($300 million). What I do see in common, however, is a long period of government work. Pretty much all the major candidates have been in positions of federal employment in high-status posts for more than a decade, except for Obama, whose political activism in Chicago serves the same purpose. That is, every one of these people has been trained and taught to believe that government is the solution.
Every one.
Yes, every so often we get a George W. Bush, who generally understands that government needs to answer to the people, and in some rare cases we get a Ronald Reagan, who understands that government is the problem far more often than it is the solution. But we also know that in the main, a career politician loses sight of what most Americans believe, hope, and work for. I note that in their cases, the political experience was supplemented by a life outside politics. And if you look at the more disappointing nominees from elections in the past generation, it is usually the more “experienced” candidate who fails to ignite excitement; Kerry 2004, McCain 2000, Dole 1996, Mondale 1984, and so on. This year, even though he misjudged the timing and could not get his campaign funding going, Fred Thompson still generated a lot of buzz, and in fact many Republicans would reconsider their opposition to McCain, if Thompson were tabbed the VP nominee. The reasons are simple, but important: Thompson spoke as a clear, no-nonsense Conservative, and he also resonated as one of the regular people. If Fred had started his campaign back in 2007 when people first started pushing him to run, he’d have built up enough momentum and campaign resources to blow away the competition. This was partly due to Thompson’s own charisma and plain speaking, but also to the fact that Thompson has a life outside politics, and has earned a few paychecks that did not come from the public trough.
That would seem to say that a candidate could win the White House, regardless of party, if he or she came from a life outside politics, who could address the political needs of the nation without sounding like he or she would become part of that machine. I think that’s part of what’s going on with Obama; he is completely out-to-lunch in his plans, but he is so obviously not part of the Clinton Political Machine that his inexperience works to his advantage. That’s a problem for McCain, then. The man exudes experience, but it’s not exactly the ‘wise patient sage’ kind. John McCain exudes the ‘I know better than you, so shaddup’ kind of experience, and aside from political disagreements, a lot of Republicans rightly worry about how that appearance will affect voters in the General Election.
You might reasonably wonder why experience could be a liability for a Presidential candidate. After all, in every other election the incumbent is known to hold a commanding advantage in every aspect, unless some scandal or drastic change in his image comes to light. But this is because of the nature of the job. Congressmen, and especially Senators, want someone who knows all about their many rules and procedures; a first-term Representative has no clout in D.C. and spends more than a year just finding out how everything works. Also, the machine in Congress is well-established, and is one of the few truly bipartisan traditions honored by both Republicans and Democrats – the veterans get the choice slots and favors. The White House is much, much different, however. A President knows he will serve one or two terms, but that’s it. He knows as well, however, that from his first day he has tremendous power and influence as President, even if his margin of victory was thin or contentious. Most Presidents start to leave their mark early on – they know what they were elected to do, what they want to accomplish, and from the start they chase those goals. It has long been noted that most two-term Presidents get most of their signal accomplishments done in their first term, and often early in that term, to boot. This is because people usually want different things from a new President, and the new President has at least a limited mandate to set that course. Experience in the job is not all that big a deal for a President.
So, what about the executive experience a President is said to need? Certainly, executive experience is important, but it still has to be properly used. Jimmy Carter had executive experience as a Governor before he became President, but he was a complete failure as a Federal Chief Executive. On the flip side, John Kennedy had far less experience in government than his successor Lyndon Johnson, but Kennedy was far more successful in his work; his three years stand to Kennedy’s credit far more than Johnson’s five years do for him, even with all his Senate experience. I would go so far as to point out that Reagan, GWB, and Harry Truman all cut their executive teeth on real-world situations long before they ever did so in political office. The ideal President, therefore, would be a candidate qualified through a proper grounding in Constitutional ideals and a decent knowledge of American History, but with little to no exposure to the surreal political establishment.
Sadly, it appears that it is too late for a regular-guy candidate to show up and save the 2008 Presidential Election, but I wonder if the Blogosphere might be useful in seeking such a candidate for 2012? There are thousands of bloggers who know qualified leaders, whose proven excellence qualifies them for attention to the needs of the nation. It wouldn’t be the first time that people discovered someone better than their party’s nominee after they had locked in the wrong guy, but it could make the difference in where the political parties, and the nation, are taking the rest of us.
I think I know part, at least, of what went wrong. It’s not just the Democrats or the Republicans and the judges they would appoint, or how they would handle National Security, or Taxes or Immigration, or so on. Those issues are important, in some cases vitally so, yet on both sides of the aisle we see a lot of discontent, even with the leading candidates saying all the “right” things. So, I would suggest that there is something more, something that has not been considered to any great degree. And that ‘something’ I would offer, is that the one big problem the average voter has with any and all of the crop of Presidential candidates, is that none of them has much at all in common with us.
Look at the brief resumes of the major candidates:
Barack Obama – Parents above-average income, went to private school (Punahou Academy). Worked 2 years after college (Political Science major) at a white-collar corporation job, then became community activist in Chicago. Harvard Law School, so he’s a lawyer. Practiced Civil Rights law, elected as State Senator, lost run for Congress in 2000, won U.S. Senate seat in 2004. Wrote three books as Senator, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth about $1.3 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=12782369
http://nymag.com/news/politics/encyclopedia/personalwealth/
Hillary Clinton – Parents wealthy, went to Wellesley and Yale (Political Science, Law). Attorney with Rose Law Firm, staff of Nixon Impeachment committee, First Lady of Arkansas 1979-81, 1983-92, First Lady of White House 1993-2000, won U.S. Senate seat in 2000. Wrote four books as First lady, got the book deals on the basis of her public image. Personal wealth about $34.9 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=9251306
http://nymag.com/news/politics/encyclopedia/personalwealth/
John McCain – Son of Admiral John Sydney McCain (CINCPAC), graduated U.S. Naval Academy (1958) and National War College (1974). Shot down 1967 over North Vietnam, famous for resisting torture and building morale among fellow POWs. Suffered six years before release to U.S. Elected U.S. Representative 1982, won U.S. Senate seat in 1986. Famous for putting his personal goals first. Wote four books as Senator, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth around $2.5 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=9542249
http://www.azcentral.com/news/specials/mccain/
Mike Huckabee – Blue-collar parents, degree in Religion from Ouchita Baptist University, Masters in Theology from Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary. Church Pastor, then head of Baptist State Convention of Arkansas. Elected Lt. Governor of Arkansas 1993-6, Governor 1996-2007. Wrote five books as Governor, got the book deals on the basis of his public image. Personal wealth around $0.9 million.
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=261446
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/fundraising-about-who-you-know/2008/01/02/1198949900099.html
As usual, the Democrats as a group turn out to be the rich elitists. Sure, Mitt Romney had a pile of money, but he was the only really rich Republican, while the high-profile Democrats include John Edwards ($31 million), Al Gore ($120 million), and Ted Kennedy ($300 million). What I do see in common, however, is a long period of government work. Pretty much all the major candidates have been in positions of federal employment in high-status posts for more than a decade, except for Obama, whose political activism in Chicago serves the same purpose. That is, every one of these people has been trained and taught to believe that government is the solution.
Every one.
Yes, every so often we get a George W. Bush, who generally understands that government needs to answer to the people, and in some rare cases we get a Ronald Reagan, who understands that government is the problem far more often than it is the solution. But we also know that in the main, a career politician loses sight of what most Americans believe, hope, and work for. I note that in their cases, the political experience was supplemented by a life outside politics. And if you look at the more disappointing nominees from elections in the past generation, it is usually the more “experienced” candidate who fails to ignite excitement; Kerry 2004, McCain 2000, Dole 1996, Mondale 1984, and so on. This year, even though he misjudged the timing and could not get his campaign funding going, Fred Thompson still generated a lot of buzz, and in fact many Republicans would reconsider their opposition to McCain, if Thompson were tabbed the VP nominee. The reasons are simple, but important: Thompson spoke as a clear, no-nonsense Conservative, and he also resonated as one of the regular people. If Fred had started his campaign back in 2007 when people first started pushing him to run, he’d have built up enough momentum and campaign resources to blow away the competition. This was partly due to Thompson’s own charisma and plain speaking, but also to the fact that Thompson has a life outside politics, and has earned a few paychecks that did not come from the public trough.
That would seem to say that a candidate could win the White House, regardless of party, if he or she came from a life outside politics, who could address the political needs of the nation without sounding like he or she would become part of that machine. I think that’s part of what’s going on with Obama; he is completely out-to-lunch in his plans, but he is so obviously not part of the Clinton Political Machine that his inexperience works to his advantage. That’s a problem for McCain, then. The man exudes experience, but it’s not exactly the ‘wise patient sage’ kind. John McCain exudes the ‘I know better than you, so shaddup’ kind of experience, and aside from political disagreements, a lot of Republicans rightly worry about how that appearance will affect voters in the General Election.
You might reasonably wonder why experience could be a liability for a Presidential candidate. After all, in every other election the incumbent is known to hold a commanding advantage in every aspect, unless some scandal or drastic change in his image comes to light. But this is because of the nature of the job. Congressmen, and especially Senators, want someone who knows all about their many rules and procedures; a first-term Representative has no clout in D.C. and spends more than a year just finding out how everything works. Also, the machine in Congress is well-established, and is one of the few truly bipartisan traditions honored by both Republicans and Democrats – the veterans get the choice slots and favors. The White House is much, much different, however. A President knows he will serve one or two terms, but that’s it. He knows as well, however, that from his first day he has tremendous power and influence as President, even if his margin of victory was thin or contentious. Most Presidents start to leave their mark early on – they know what they were elected to do, what they want to accomplish, and from the start they chase those goals. It has long been noted that most two-term Presidents get most of their signal accomplishments done in their first term, and often early in that term, to boot. This is because people usually want different things from a new President, and the new President has at least a limited mandate to set that course. Experience in the job is not all that big a deal for a President.
So, what about the executive experience a President is said to need? Certainly, executive experience is important, but it still has to be properly used. Jimmy Carter had executive experience as a Governor before he became President, but he was a complete failure as a Federal Chief Executive. On the flip side, John Kennedy had far less experience in government than his successor Lyndon Johnson, but Kennedy was far more successful in his work; his three years stand to Kennedy’s credit far more than Johnson’s five years do for him, even with all his Senate experience. I would go so far as to point out that Reagan, GWB, and Harry Truman all cut their executive teeth on real-world situations long before they ever did so in political office. The ideal President, therefore, would be a candidate qualified through a proper grounding in Constitutional ideals and a decent knowledge of American History, but with little to no exposure to the surreal political establishment.
Sadly, it appears that it is too late for a regular-guy candidate to show up and save the 2008 Presidential Election, but I wonder if the Blogosphere might be useful in seeking such a candidate for 2012? There are thousands of bloggers who know qualified leaders, whose proven excellence qualifies them for attention to the needs of the nation. It wouldn’t be the first time that people discovered someone better than their party’s nominee after they had locked in the wrong guy, but it could make the difference in where the political parties, and the nation, are taking the rest of us.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
A Presumed Villian and an Inquisition
I do not like Roger Clemens. The guy strikes me as arrogant and full of himself, a selfish person whose first instinct is a mix of narcissism and greed. That is one reason I feel so odd defending him from the slime and slander being heaped by the media and now the Congress of the United States.
To read the newspapers and listen to the radio and television, Roger is apparently a cheat who is lying about using steroids and HGH to keep his edge as a pitcher. If true, that would be a pretty bad thing, I agree, and I cannot absolutely say that Roger did not use steroids or HGH, despite his repeated denials. But the present situation can not be properly described as a search for the truth, nearly so much as it is an obvious railroading of Clemens, simply because he is a big target.
Let’s run the timeline, but keep it simple. Clemens is a long-time veteran of Major League Baseball, starting with his selection by the Boston Red Sox in 1983. Clemens reached the majors in 1984, and won his first Cy Young award in 1986. In 1991, Clemens became (at the time) Baseball’s highest paid player. Clemens won his 200th game in 1997, and claimed his 3,000th strikeout in 1998. On May 22, 1999, Clemens set an AL record with his 18th consecutive victory (spanning two seasons). In 2001, Clemens won 20 or more games for the 5th time. He claimed his 300th victory in 2003. After that, Clemens came to the Astros and was instrumental in helping them go to their first-ever World Series. Clemens’ 1.87 ERA in 2005 was the lowest in the league, and that year he claimed his 4,500th strikeout. In 2007, Clemens claimed his 350th win, this time back with the Yankees.
The first allegations of steroid use by Clemens were made by Jose Canseco, which were followed by incorrect citations that an affadavit by Jason Grimsley implicated Clemens, a claim later proven false by the same judge whose court originally took the affadavit. That affadavit, however, led to charges against former Yankees trainer Brian McNamee. McNamee found himself in a lot of trouble, and soon after made claims against Clemens, for reasons which he claimed involved telling the truth, but which could more reasonably be explained by hopes that producing a bigger fish would reduce his prison sentence. Certainly, the fact that McNamee has lied to authorities before on numerous occasions should caution anyone from taking him at his word.
The Mitchell Report, Congress’ attempt to feel good about itself by ignoring the big problems so it can obsess with things that in no way affect the National Defense, Economy, or Public Welfare, mentioned Clemens 82 times. All of the citations, however, were hearsay or unsupported allegations. Deciding it needed to waste even more taxpayer money and time, Congress held hearings on MLB Steroid use and “invited” Clemens to appear and to testify under oath. This is roughly equivalent to the tender mercies of the Inquisition, which also “invited” defendants to appear before tribunals and unaccountable prosecutors. The last week has been filled with the exploits of men abandoning – yet again – their duties as public servants in order to pursue some personal vendetta or crusade. With one notable exception, however, the siege against Clemens has not changed anything about the known facts: The accusers have made charges, which Clemens denies. The accusers also have a clear motive to lie, but the media has clearly lined up against Clemens, assuming his guilt.
The exception is a creepy but significant piece; McNamee claims to have kept used syringes, bottles, and even bloody gauze which he claims prove Clemens was injected with steroids or HGH. In truth, the impetus of that physical evidence almost certainly cannot be used to prove Clemens’ guilt, but it can be used to prove McNamee is lying. First off, just how does McNamee explain keeping that stuff since 2000 and 2001, as he claims? There is, as Rusty Hardin (Clemen’s lawyer) only one immediate and obvious answer – that McNamee planned to blackmail, perhaps even frame, Roger Clemens. We know from McNamee’s own testimony to police that he had no moral problems with selling and injecting steroids … until he got caught.
Here’s McNamee’s problem: The physical evidence may or may not contain Clemen’s DNA, but even if it does, that does not rule out the strong possibility that McNamee could have tampered with the evidence – he held it for years for what definitely appears to be a hostile motive and bias against Clemens; the normal ‘chain of evidence’ rules would make it inadmissable in any court. But that evidence will far more likely be inconclusive, and may even prove McNamee a bald liar, if there should be DNA other than Clemens’ on the syringes, gauze, or bottles. To me, this looks like McNamee tried too hard to prove how clever he was, and this may well trip him up.
But I am concerned about the whole thing. Clemens may or may not have taken steroids, but the problem I have is how this was handled. Clemens has done a lot of stupid things in his career, but he never failed a drug test, he has never admitted using illegal substances, and no credible witness has ever testified seeing Clemens use illegal substances. Like it or not, there is no evidence that Roger Clemens used steroids or HGH. Yet the prevailing consensus is that he should be presumed guilty, that his career is “tainted”, that he might deserve to be denied the Hall of Fame, not because of what he is known to have done, but because of what he is rumored to have done.
A rumor. No proof, no presumption of innocence until admission or irrefutable evidence, just a whisper campaign started by men known to have broken the law, men who have admitted that they lied and cheated, and perpetuated by men too petty to make sure of the facts (geez, nothing learned from the Duke Lacrosse rape case, huh guys?), men who thought it was better to get a hot story running on a scandal, even if it was a pernicious lie, than to consider the damage such a rumor could cause an innocent man. After all, think about Roger Clemens’ situation for just a moment, and ask yourself, if he’s innocent, if he never used steroids or HGH, how does he prove it? It’s supposed to be a man is presumed innocent, because if he is guilty of something, the accusation can be proven, but even the most innocent man cannot prove a negative. No history of drug use, no admissions in his past, no evidence to speak of or credible unbiased witnesses, and yet the majority believe he is guilty, just because of a rumor. Why don’t people see why that is wrong?
This brings me to Congress. I alluded to the fact that whether or not baseball players have been taking steroids has pretty much zilch to do with the job Congress is supposed to be doing. I am unaware of any Al Qaeda plot involving doping up our pro athletes. Social Security is not imperiled if professional athletes have been using performance-enhancing drugs (PED). That bridge in Minnesota last year did not collapse because a jock stuck himself with a needle. When you get right down to it, Congress has no business sticking its nose in this.
Which reminds me, Congress is always going on about separation of powers, which basically is a rant about how they resent the President doing his job, using powers they wish they could grab for themselves. The hypocrisy of this is apparent as soon as we see someone being sworn in to testify to a Congressional “investigation”. These yahoos sure do like acting like judges, especially since they don’t have to follow the nominal courtroom standards – nothing like “inviting” someone to come speak to Congress, then treating them like a criminal and doing your worst to make them look guilty just for defending themselves from rumors and innuendo, especially if they dare to bring an attorney. “Contempt of Congress” can get you sent to jail, but from what I can see, for any reasonable person familiar with the Constitution and the behavior of these overpaid louts, “Contempt of Congress” merely describes the normal opinion a man of conscience should have of that group of liars and theieves.
Is Roger Clemens guilty of using steroids, HGH, or some other PED? I frankly don’t know, but as much as I dislike the man, I will take his word as sufficient to presume innocence unless and until a court proves otherwise; I will not condone or support a craven liar like McNamee just because the ratings are good for the story. I also find it easy and obvious to conclude that every Congressman involved in this “investigation” is guilty of fraud and malfeasance, as indeed is the natural state of any Congressman.
To read the newspapers and listen to the radio and television, Roger is apparently a cheat who is lying about using steroids and HGH to keep his edge as a pitcher. If true, that would be a pretty bad thing, I agree, and I cannot absolutely say that Roger did not use steroids or HGH, despite his repeated denials. But the present situation can not be properly described as a search for the truth, nearly so much as it is an obvious railroading of Clemens, simply because he is a big target.
Let’s run the timeline, but keep it simple. Clemens is a long-time veteran of Major League Baseball, starting with his selection by the Boston Red Sox in 1983. Clemens reached the majors in 1984, and won his first Cy Young award in 1986. In 1991, Clemens became (at the time) Baseball’s highest paid player. Clemens won his 200th game in 1997, and claimed his 3,000th strikeout in 1998. On May 22, 1999, Clemens set an AL record with his 18th consecutive victory (spanning two seasons). In 2001, Clemens won 20 or more games for the 5th time. He claimed his 300th victory in 2003. After that, Clemens came to the Astros and was instrumental in helping them go to their first-ever World Series. Clemens’ 1.87 ERA in 2005 was the lowest in the league, and that year he claimed his 4,500th strikeout. In 2007, Clemens claimed his 350th win, this time back with the Yankees.
The first allegations of steroid use by Clemens were made by Jose Canseco, which were followed by incorrect citations that an affadavit by Jason Grimsley implicated Clemens, a claim later proven false by the same judge whose court originally took the affadavit. That affadavit, however, led to charges against former Yankees trainer Brian McNamee. McNamee found himself in a lot of trouble, and soon after made claims against Clemens, for reasons which he claimed involved telling the truth, but which could more reasonably be explained by hopes that producing a bigger fish would reduce his prison sentence. Certainly, the fact that McNamee has lied to authorities before on numerous occasions should caution anyone from taking him at his word.
The Mitchell Report, Congress’ attempt to feel good about itself by ignoring the big problems so it can obsess with things that in no way affect the National Defense, Economy, or Public Welfare, mentioned Clemens 82 times. All of the citations, however, were hearsay or unsupported allegations. Deciding it needed to waste even more taxpayer money and time, Congress held hearings on MLB Steroid use and “invited” Clemens to appear and to testify under oath. This is roughly equivalent to the tender mercies of the Inquisition, which also “invited” defendants to appear before tribunals and unaccountable prosecutors. The last week has been filled with the exploits of men abandoning – yet again – their duties as public servants in order to pursue some personal vendetta or crusade. With one notable exception, however, the siege against Clemens has not changed anything about the known facts: The accusers have made charges, which Clemens denies. The accusers also have a clear motive to lie, but the media has clearly lined up against Clemens, assuming his guilt.
The exception is a creepy but significant piece; McNamee claims to have kept used syringes, bottles, and even bloody gauze which he claims prove Clemens was injected with steroids or HGH. In truth, the impetus of that physical evidence almost certainly cannot be used to prove Clemens’ guilt, but it can be used to prove McNamee is lying. First off, just how does McNamee explain keeping that stuff since 2000 and 2001, as he claims? There is, as Rusty Hardin (Clemen’s lawyer) only one immediate and obvious answer – that McNamee planned to blackmail, perhaps even frame, Roger Clemens. We know from McNamee’s own testimony to police that he had no moral problems with selling and injecting steroids … until he got caught.
Here’s McNamee’s problem: The physical evidence may or may not contain Clemen’s DNA, but even if it does, that does not rule out the strong possibility that McNamee could have tampered with the evidence – he held it for years for what definitely appears to be a hostile motive and bias against Clemens; the normal ‘chain of evidence’ rules would make it inadmissable in any court. But that evidence will far more likely be inconclusive, and may even prove McNamee a bald liar, if there should be DNA other than Clemens’ on the syringes, gauze, or bottles. To me, this looks like McNamee tried too hard to prove how clever he was, and this may well trip him up.
But I am concerned about the whole thing. Clemens may or may not have taken steroids, but the problem I have is how this was handled. Clemens has done a lot of stupid things in his career, but he never failed a drug test, he has never admitted using illegal substances, and no credible witness has ever testified seeing Clemens use illegal substances. Like it or not, there is no evidence that Roger Clemens used steroids or HGH. Yet the prevailing consensus is that he should be presumed guilty, that his career is “tainted”, that he might deserve to be denied the Hall of Fame, not because of what he is known to have done, but because of what he is rumored to have done.
A rumor. No proof, no presumption of innocence until admission or irrefutable evidence, just a whisper campaign started by men known to have broken the law, men who have admitted that they lied and cheated, and perpetuated by men too petty to make sure of the facts (geez, nothing learned from the Duke Lacrosse rape case, huh guys?), men who thought it was better to get a hot story running on a scandal, even if it was a pernicious lie, than to consider the damage such a rumor could cause an innocent man. After all, think about Roger Clemens’ situation for just a moment, and ask yourself, if he’s innocent, if he never used steroids or HGH, how does he prove it? It’s supposed to be a man is presumed innocent, because if he is guilty of something, the accusation can be proven, but even the most innocent man cannot prove a negative. No history of drug use, no admissions in his past, no evidence to speak of or credible unbiased witnesses, and yet the majority believe he is guilty, just because of a rumor. Why don’t people see why that is wrong?
This brings me to Congress. I alluded to the fact that whether or not baseball players have been taking steroids has pretty much zilch to do with the job Congress is supposed to be doing. I am unaware of any Al Qaeda plot involving doping up our pro athletes. Social Security is not imperiled if professional athletes have been using performance-enhancing drugs (PED). That bridge in Minnesota last year did not collapse because a jock stuck himself with a needle. When you get right down to it, Congress has no business sticking its nose in this.
Which reminds me, Congress is always going on about separation of powers, which basically is a rant about how they resent the President doing his job, using powers they wish they could grab for themselves. The hypocrisy of this is apparent as soon as we see someone being sworn in to testify to a Congressional “investigation”. These yahoos sure do like acting like judges, especially since they don’t have to follow the nominal courtroom standards – nothing like “inviting” someone to come speak to Congress, then treating them like a criminal and doing your worst to make them look guilty just for defending themselves from rumors and innuendo, especially if they dare to bring an attorney. “Contempt of Congress” can get you sent to jail, but from what I can see, for any reasonable person familiar with the Constitution and the behavior of these overpaid louts, “Contempt of Congress” merely describes the normal opinion a man of conscience should have of that group of liars and theieves.
Is Roger Clemens guilty of using steroids, HGH, or some other PED? I frankly don’t know, but as much as I dislike the man, I will take his word as sufficient to presume innocence unless and until a court proves otherwise; I will not condone or support a craven liar like McNamee just because the ratings are good for the story. I also find it easy and obvious to conclude that every Congressman involved in this “investigation” is guilty of fraud and malfeasance, as indeed is the natural state of any Congressman.
Monday, February 11, 2008
My Dog for President
In discussions surrounding the strong odds that John McCain will claim the Republican nomination for President, more than a few people have assumed that because I have not trashed his reputation and questioned his patriotism, that I am a supporter of McCain for President.
That assumption is not correct.
Texas will hold its Primary on March 4, 2008. At this time, I am not sure for whom I will be voting, much less whether I am ready to actively campaign for anyone still on the ticket. For the record, my present Top 10 ranking of candidates for my vote for President of the United States would be as follows:
1. Condoleezza Rice (most qualified, but refused to run)
2. Fred Thompson (speaks well, but refused to take the race seriously)
3. Jeb Bush (competent, articulate, conservative, but no one wants 3 Bushes in 4 Administrations)
4. My wife (qualified and eminently sensible, but she won’t run)
5. Me (no worse than any of the front-runners on any count)
6. My primary dog, Bingo (the cutest and smartest Collie since Lassie)
7. My back-up dog, Cody (Black Lab, is loyal, beautiful, and a talented comedian to boot)
8. Dick Cheney (the effect on Democrats alone would be worth the vote)
9. Ronald Reagan (if you’re going to send a message, noting that a dead conservative is better than a fake one should be clear)
10. Bruce Willis (probably the toughest real Republican still active)
Having said that, I am willing to consider voting for John McCain or Mike Huckabee, provided one of them can earn my vote. While I am not one of those screaming extremists who would pretend that a Democrat in the White House is anything but a catastrophe and a direct threat to the ideals of America, neither do I forget the offenses of McCain and Huckabee, offenses not to my sensibility but to my common sense.
John McCain will not get my vote if his main claim is that he is the most ‘electable’ candidate. That was the Democrats’ strategy in 2004, to select a buffoon because they thought he would perform well in the General Election. It also occurs to me that John McCain supported John Kerry many times in 2004, a troubling behavior in a purported Republican, let alone a self-proclaimed Conservative. You need to explain why you chose the wrong side in 2004, Senator McCain.
John McCain needs to explain why he felt a hand-picked group in a back room should make decisions on judicial appointments, rather than let the Senate do its job. John McCain needs to explain, clearly, what justices he would nominate to the Supreme Court, and on what merits. And he needs to apologize, in public to Pickering, Estrada, Owens, and the others he trashed in the name of expediency and political advantage. John McCain needs to apologize for and fully repudiate McCain-Feingold. These are the starting points, not trivial details. I and other Conservatives have a right to demand bonafides from McCain, while he had no right to demand anything just because he enjoys the delegate lead right now.
As for Mike Huckabee, he too must answer questions. I am a fundamentalist Christian, which sometimes makes it difficult to speak to people of other beliefs. Too often self-proclaimed leaders of my faith engage in unchristian behavior, even in the name of their religion, and in so doing attack peace and respect rather than build on love for their fellow man. I would ask Huckabee to explain why he brought up his religion in such a self-serving way; it diminishes his credibility and my sense of his integrity, rather than increasing it. I would ask Huckabee to explain why, I he wants to be the Republican nominee, he insulted and attacked the Republican President’s foreign policy and the War in Iraq, especially when Huckabee’s demonstrated lack of comprehension in that area is so dismal. I want Huckabee to explain hwo he would sell the Fair Tax to Congress, and what he will do when they kill the bill on arrival. I want Huckabee to explain his tax hikes as Governor; raising the sales tax in 1996, supporting an Internet sales tax in 2001, and raising taxes on nursing home patients in 2001. How does this make him a ‘conservative’? The Cato Institute does not grade Huckabee a conservative, so where are his credentials? We Conservatives are outraged by spending; it’s one of the few areas where I disagree with President Bush. But Huckabee’s record as Governor included a 65% increase in state spending. How does that make him qualified to write the Federal budget? As Governor, Huckabee supported a higher minimum wage, and demanded ‘price-gouging’ investigations of oil companies. Huckabee’s credentials are in serious doubt, and I for one expect better answers from him if he wants my vote.
I had not previously mentioned Ron Paul. It is difficult to address just how far from rational his positions are, without giving them far more attention than they deserve. In short, however, his views on National Security show he is more in line with Michael Moore than Bill Roggio, his sense of the War in Iraq shows he is more in tune with Alec Baldwin than General Petraeus, and his views on the Economy show he is far more aligned with Karl Marx than Milton Friedman. At best, Congressman Ron Paul is sadly uneducated and misguided. At worst, he is dangerously unbalanced.
I said in earlier posts, that I think people should be aware of the likely consequences of their actions. I realize that even if I vote for McCain or Huckabee this fall, they may lose if I do not also actively campaign for them, that an unenthused vote may be of little value. Then again, I have also said clearly, that a candidate bears the weight of his campaign’s success or failure, that no one owes their vote to anyone. And as far as the Primary goes, right now writing in a vote for my dog looks like my most rational course. Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee are welcome, of course, to make a better case than they have so far.
That assumption is not correct.
Texas will hold its Primary on March 4, 2008. At this time, I am not sure for whom I will be voting, much less whether I am ready to actively campaign for anyone still on the ticket. For the record, my present Top 10 ranking of candidates for my vote for President of the United States would be as follows:
1. Condoleezza Rice (most qualified, but refused to run)
2. Fred Thompson (speaks well, but refused to take the race seriously)
3. Jeb Bush (competent, articulate, conservative, but no one wants 3 Bushes in 4 Administrations)
4. My wife (qualified and eminently sensible, but she won’t run)
5. Me (no worse than any of the front-runners on any count)
6. My primary dog, Bingo (the cutest and smartest Collie since Lassie)
7. My back-up dog, Cody (Black Lab, is loyal, beautiful, and a talented comedian to boot)
8. Dick Cheney (the effect on Democrats alone would be worth the vote)
9. Ronald Reagan (if you’re going to send a message, noting that a dead conservative is better than a fake one should be clear)
10. Bruce Willis (probably the toughest real Republican still active)
Having said that, I am willing to consider voting for John McCain or Mike Huckabee, provided one of them can earn my vote. While I am not one of those screaming extremists who would pretend that a Democrat in the White House is anything but a catastrophe and a direct threat to the ideals of America, neither do I forget the offenses of McCain and Huckabee, offenses not to my sensibility but to my common sense.
John McCain will not get my vote if his main claim is that he is the most ‘electable’ candidate. That was the Democrats’ strategy in 2004, to select a buffoon because they thought he would perform well in the General Election. It also occurs to me that John McCain supported John Kerry many times in 2004, a troubling behavior in a purported Republican, let alone a self-proclaimed Conservative. You need to explain why you chose the wrong side in 2004, Senator McCain.
John McCain needs to explain why he felt a hand-picked group in a back room should make decisions on judicial appointments, rather than let the Senate do its job. John McCain needs to explain, clearly, what justices he would nominate to the Supreme Court, and on what merits. And he needs to apologize, in public to Pickering, Estrada, Owens, and the others he trashed in the name of expediency and political advantage. John McCain needs to apologize for and fully repudiate McCain-Feingold. These are the starting points, not trivial details. I and other Conservatives have a right to demand bonafides from McCain, while he had no right to demand anything just because he enjoys the delegate lead right now.
As for Mike Huckabee, he too must answer questions. I am a fundamentalist Christian, which sometimes makes it difficult to speak to people of other beliefs. Too often self-proclaimed leaders of my faith engage in unchristian behavior, even in the name of their religion, and in so doing attack peace and respect rather than build on love for their fellow man. I would ask Huckabee to explain why he brought up his religion in such a self-serving way; it diminishes his credibility and my sense of his integrity, rather than increasing it. I would ask Huckabee to explain why, I he wants to be the Republican nominee, he insulted and attacked the Republican President’s foreign policy and the War in Iraq, especially when Huckabee’s demonstrated lack of comprehension in that area is so dismal. I want Huckabee to explain hwo he would sell the Fair Tax to Congress, and what he will do when they kill the bill on arrival. I want Huckabee to explain his tax hikes as Governor; raising the sales tax in 1996, supporting an Internet sales tax in 2001, and raising taxes on nursing home patients in 2001. How does this make him a ‘conservative’? The Cato Institute does not grade Huckabee a conservative, so where are his credentials? We Conservatives are outraged by spending; it’s one of the few areas where I disagree with President Bush. But Huckabee’s record as Governor included a 65% increase in state spending. How does that make him qualified to write the Federal budget? As Governor, Huckabee supported a higher minimum wage, and demanded ‘price-gouging’ investigations of oil companies. Huckabee’s credentials are in serious doubt, and I for one expect better answers from him if he wants my vote.
I had not previously mentioned Ron Paul. It is difficult to address just how far from rational his positions are, without giving them far more attention than they deserve. In short, however, his views on National Security show he is more in line with Michael Moore than Bill Roggio, his sense of the War in Iraq shows he is more in tune with Alec Baldwin than General Petraeus, and his views on the Economy show he is far more aligned with Karl Marx than Milton Friedman. At best, Congressman Ron Paul is sadly uneducated and misguided. At worst, he is dangerously unbalanced.
I said in earlier posts, that I think people should be aware of the likely consequences of their actions. I realize that even if I vote for McCain or Huckabee this fall, they may lose if I do not also actively campaign for them, that an unenthused vote may be of little value. Then again, I have also said clearly, that a candidate bears the weight of his campaign’s success or failure, that no one owes their vote to anyone. And as far as the Primary goes, right now writing in a vote for my dog looks like my most rational course. Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee are welcome, of course, to make a better case than they have so far.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Hard Choices
With apologies to Governor Huckabee and Congressman Paul, the GOP race is effectively over, and Senator John “Maverick” McCain is all but sure to claim the Republican party's nomination for President of the United States. This news has provoked a range of responses, and created a condition for all the major players which, at the very least, means a set of hard choices for us all.
First, the hard-line Right. I consider myself as strong a Conservative as anyone I know, and frankly I have no great desire to see John McCain in the White House, but I have to say I am appalled by some of the statements made by even leading Conservatives. Ann Coulter’s claim that she will actively support the Democrats’ nominee out of spite against McCain, is a poor decision on many counts, including comprehension of the difference between even the weakest Republican President and any potential Democrat in the office, as well as simple ideals of the party. Conservatives are bitterly disappointed, and with cause, that the party they worked so hard to build has denied them an effectively Conservative representative in this election cycle. There was no Reagan in this race, not even a Bush. There were people who said the right things, but they never caught on, and the men who won the early primaries were none of them quite what Conservatives wanted. As a result, Conservatives must now choose between a man with whom they have strong differences, a party which threatens massive damage to the country should it claim control of the White House and Congress at the same time, and sitting out the election and hoping for the best. I don’t think any of the three choices will sit well with Conservatives.
Next, Senators Clinton and Obama. You might not think they would have much to worry about, but indeed they do. You see, before Super Tuesday both parties had an all-out tussle going, and while McCain had the lead, if Romney or Huckabee had a big day on Feb. 5 then things would be back to total chaos, while Clinton and Obama each hoped to pull cleanly away from their rival. Instead, the opposite happened – the GOP race is pretty much decided, while the Democrats are neck and neck, and they have some sharp disagreements on their record. At the very least, the Democrat candidates will each have to spend a lot of energy and resources trying to win the party nomination, while McCain can begin his general campaign right now. Clinton and Obama will each maintain something of a negative campaign, while McCain can build up name recognition with the undecided voter as a positive force, memories of his own negative tactics fading as he moves ahead. Figuring out how to beat your party opponent and McCain from the Republicans at the same time, will be unquestionably be problematic for both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.
Then there are Senator McCain’s own hard choices. McCain won the commanding lead he has, through courting the independent-minded and socially liberal Republicans and middle-ground voters, which may provide some help in the general election for him. But no Republican candidate can win the White House without making sure his party is solidly behind him. And that party support depends heavily on Conservative support. In 1988, almost all Conservatives supported G.H.W. Bush, and he cleared 53% of the Popular Vote, the last Presidential candidate to do so well. In 1992, almost no Conservatives supported “Poppy” Bush, and he barely cleared 37% of the Popular Vote. In 2000, Conservatives were lukewarm to George W. Bush, and he only barely won through a popular minority and Electoral majority. But in 2004, Conservatives poured support on for Dubya, and he cleared 51% of the Popular Vote. Having or not having the support of the Conservatives can therefore be said to mean at least 6% in the Popular Vote margin, and possibly double that. It is obvious that McCain cannot win without the Conservatives behind him, but if he chases the Conservatives, he may lose those social Liberals who would not already have chosen to support Obama or Hillary.
Also, it may be too late for McCain to decide he needs the Conservatives’ support. The war between McCain and Conservatives is not the result of one issue or one incident – John McCain went out of his way, well out of his way in some cases, to make enemies of Conservatives and to attack them, in some cases completely without cause. It’s not just McCain’s vote on some issues as the way he discussed them in public, viciously denouncing Conservatives time and time again. McCain also acted in a narcissistic manner on a regular basis, not merely supporting but leading a movement to deny Senate committee votes to judicial nominees, to prohibit support for public debate just before elections, and in regularly defying his Senate Majority Leader, GOP leadership, and even tossed off regular snipes at President Bush, displaying a petulance and temper ill-suited to a would-be head of state. McCain did not merely burn some bridges, he cratered the landscape around the wreckage, salted the ground and disparaged all efforts to commend him to a more gracious behavior. Just how Senator McCain will be able to construct a unified party in time to win the General Election seems at the moment to be beyond the scope of feasibility.
Conservative bloggers and pundits also have hard choices to make. Posting articles which tear down McCain may be factually accurate and idealistically suitable, but this could help the Democrats, which is universally a bad idea. Supporting McCain without pointing out the areas where he is well out of bounds, however, would be unethical and only encourage his arrogance and false assumptions – anyone want to bet that the Democrats are not ready to go after every one of McCain’s many weak spots? Bloggers also need to keep their emotions in check. Ann Coulter’s little hissy-fit about supporting a Democrat will do no good for the Conservative Movement, especially if some of her readers get the idea that voting Hillary or Obama would be any wiser than dousing yourself with gasoline, lighting up a stogie and tap-dancing through a minefield. Set a better example please, Ms. Coulter. Just as Dan Rather’s criminal attempt to influence the 2004 election with forged documents was unacceptable, those people who are fortunate enough to have a large following must be reminded that they are accountable for the course they counsel their people to follow. While it is true that Conservatives are not lockstep robots, it remains a penultimate sin for an icon to forget that he or she does influence millions of people. This makes the choices weighty, but we must in any case be aware of that fact.
First, the hard-line Right. I consider myself as strong a Conservative as anyone I know, and frankly I have no great desire to see John McCain in the White House, but I have to say I am appalled by some of the statements made by even leading Conservatives. Ann Coulter’s claim that she will actively support the Democrats’ nominee out of spite against McCain, is a poor decision on many counts, including comprehension of the difference between even the weakest Republican President and any potential Democrat in the office, as well as simple ideals of the party. Conservatives are bitterly disappointed, and with cause, that the party they worked so hard to build has denied them an effectively Conservative representative in this election cycle. There was no Reagan in this race, not even a Bush. There were people who said the right things, but they never caught on, and the men who won the early primaries were none of them quite what Conservatives wanted. As a result, Conservatives must now choose between a man with whom they have strong differences, a party which threatens massive damage to the country should it claim control of the White House and Congress at the same time, and sitting out the election and hoping for the best. I don’t think any of the three choices will sit well with Conservatives.
Next, Senators Clinton and Obama. You might not think they would have much to worry about, but indeed they do. You see, before Super Tuesday both parties had an all-out tussle going, and while McCain had the lead, if Romney or Huckabee had a big day on Feb. 5 then things would be back to total chaos, while Clinton and Obama each hoped to pull cleanly away from their rival. Instead, the opposite happened – the GOP race is pretty much decided, while the Democrats are neck and neck, and they have some sharp disagreements on their record. At the very least, the Democrat candidates will each have to spend a lot of energy and resources trying to win the party nomination, while McCain can begin his general campaign right now. Clinton and Obama will each maintain something of a negative campaign, while McCain can build up name recognition with the undecided voter as a positive force, memories of his own negative tactics fading as he moves ahead. Figuring out how to beat your party opponent and McCain from the Republicans at the same time, will be unquestionably be problematic for both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.
Then there are Senator McCain’s own hard choices. McCain won the commanding lead he has, through courting the independent-minded and socially liberal Republicans and middle-ground voters, which may provide some help in the general election for him. But no Republican candidate can win the White House without making sure his party is solidly behind him. And that party support depends heavily on Conservative support. In 1988, almost all Conservatives supported G.H.W. Bush, and he cleared 53% of the Popular Vote, the last Presidential candidate to do so well. In 1992, almost no Conservatives supported “Poppy” Bush, and he barely cleared 37% of the Popular Vote. In 2000, Conservatives were lukewarm to George W. Bush, and he only barely won through a popular minority and Electoral majority. But in 2004, Conservatives poured support on for Dubya, and he cleared 51% of the Popular Vote. Having or not having the support of the Conservatives can therefore be said to mean at least 6% in the Popular Vote margin, and possibly double that. It is obvious that McCain cannot win without the Conservatives behind him, but if he chases the Conservatives, he may lose those social Liberals who would not already have chosen to support Obama or Hillary.
Also, it may be too late for McCain to decide he needs the Conservatives’ support. The war between McCain and Conservatives is not the result of one issue or one incident – John McCain went out of his way, well out of his way in some cases, to make enemies of Conservatives and to attack them, in some cases completely without cause. It’s not just McCain’s vote on some issues as the way he discussed them in public, viciously denouncing Conservatives time and time again. McCain also acted in a narcissistic manner on a regular basis, not merely supporting but leading a movement to deny Senate committee votes to judicial nominees, to prohibit support for public debate just before elections, and in regularly defying his Senate Majority Leader, GOP leadership, and even tossed off regular snipes at President Bush, displaying a petulance and temper ill-suited to a would-be head of state. McCain did not merely burn some bridges, he cratered the landscape around the wreckage, salted the ground and disparaged all efforts to commend him to a more gracious behavior. Just how Senator McCain will be able to construct a unified party in time to win the General Election seems at the moment to be beyond the scope of feasibility.
Conservative bloggers and pundits also have hard choices to make. Posting articles which tear down McCain may be factually accurate and idealistically suitable, but this could help the Democrats, which is universally a bad idea. Supporting McCain without pointing out the areas where he is well out of bounds, however, would be unethical and only encourage his arrogance and false assumptions – anyone want to bet that the Democrats are not ready to go after every one of McCain’s many weak spots? Bloggers also need to keep their emotions in check. Ann Coulter’s little hissy-fit about supporting a Democrat will do no good for the Conservative Movement, especially if some of her readers get the idea that voting Hillary or Obama would be any wiser than dousing yourself with gasoline, lighting up a stogie and tap-dancing through a minefield. Set a better example please, Ms. Coulter. Just as Dan Rather’s criminal attempt to influence the 2004 election with forged documents was unacceptable, those people who are fortunate enough to have a large following must be reminded that they are accountable for the course they counsel their people to follow. While it is true that Conservatives are not lockstep robots, it remains a penultimate sin for an icon to forget that he or she does influence millions of people. This makes the choices weighty, but we must in any case be aware of that fact.
Year of the Rat
In the traditional Asian calendar, there are twelve lunar years, in fashion similar to the Western zodiac of lunar months. Each of the years is assigned an animal, and people born in that year are said to carry the traits of that year’s animal. 2008 is the Year of the Rat. For Asians, the symbolic rat is charming and clever, has lots of friends and often a lot of money as well. The more I think about it, that fits the United States political scene just now. Certainly it is very easy to imagine any of the remaining major contenders for President as rattish in their character and behavior.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
The Un-Holidays
It’s a week away. Valentine’s Day, a day best known for overpriced guilt trips and mob killings, and about as sincere as a John McCain tribute to President Reagan. We celebrate the real holidays for a variety of solid reasons, but Valentine’s Day stands out for its hypocrisy and mercenary character. We celebrate religious holidays because of our faith, and national holidays to remember veterans and great leaders, but somewhere along the way other ‘holidays’ got mixed in, fake ones which do nothing to celebrate or improve the character of our nation. There’s St. Patrick’s Day, a day best known for promoting the assumption that the Irish are drunks who like to wear green clothing. There’s April Fool’s Day, based on the premise that deceitful behavior and insulting gestures should be universally practiced and praised. There’s Cinco de Mayo, originally a very good celebration by Mexicans who recall the May 5 1862 victory of Mexican forces over France in the Battle of Puebla, which effectively confirmed Mexico’s freedom from foreign occupation, but which has in modern times become a celebration of beer and bad music. To that point, a number of American holidays have gone the same way, such as the many people who celebrate Memorial Day and Veteran’s Day without once visiting a veteran or a cemetary of those who died for our country. There is Groundhog Day, where millions of people take time out to respect the observational skills of a fat rodent, on the assumption that his behavior should direct their meteorological expectations. There is Earth Day, where millions of environmentally sensitive people take the opportunity to shout obscene-laced screeds at people who have been successful in their careers, and leave piles of refuse at their fairs and concerts, polluting the area far more heavily than usual in a gesture somehow meant to convey moral superiority. There is Arbor Day, which is largely ignored by people not really, really desperate for a reason to have a holiday, and on which day the original purpose (planting trees) is almost never remembered, much less performed. There is Labor Day, which is honored by new and bolder Union demands and by retail shopping sprees. There is United Nations Day (Oct. 24), which celebrates the defeat of the civilized world to the bureaucrats and the mandarins. And of course, there is also Halloween, a day created by costume supply stores and dentists and people who wish to defame Wiccans.
But for some reason Valentine’s Day seems the worst to me. A day controlled by the International Chocolate, Snotty Restaurant, and Jewelry Cartel, the day seems designed to play on all the worst human traits. Women get greedy for over-priced shiny rocks, men start dwelling on the (generally futile) hope that buying a negligee for $250 will lead to sex, and anyone who spends less than a week’s pay on the day is considered some kind of skinflint. Valentine’s Day is worse than the other holidays, because even from Elementary school you are expected to play along, enduring a day of Pink and Violet pastel hell where women demand equal rights, but also complete devotion and a set of luxurious amusements. Everything about Valentine’s Day is sexist and mercenary, but all to the benefit of the female. God help the man who fails the least whim of his paramour, let alone a man who wonders when it might be his turn to receive such extravagant and hedonist delights. As we all know well, men are never on the receiving end of such arrangements, except in certain sitcoms and professional athletes and musicians. Life imitates High School. That alone is reason to hate V-Day.
But for some reason Valentine’s Day seems the worst to me. A day controlled by the International Chocolate, Snotty Restaurant, and Jewelry Cartel, the day seems designed to play on all the worst human traits. Women get greedy for over-priced shiny rocks, men start dwelling on the (generally futile) hope that buying a negligee for $250 will lead to sex, and anyone who spends less than a week’s pay on the day is considered some kind of skinflint. Valentine’s Day is worse than the other holidays, because even from Elementary school you are expected to play along, enduring a day of Pink and Violet pastel hell where women demand equal rights, but also complete devotion and a set of luxurious amusements. Everything about Valentine’s Day is sexist and mercenary, but all to the benefit of the female. God help the man who fails the least whim of his paramour, let alone a man who wonders when it might be his turn to receive such extravagant and hedonist delights. As we all know well, men are never on the receiving end of such arrangements, except in certain sitcoms and professional athletes and musicians. Life imitates High School. That alone is reason to hate V-Day.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
The Stakes
It is well-known from my posts, that I do not support the candidacy of Senator John McCain for President of the United States. Other people have equally strong reasons for their dislike of Governor Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, or Congressman Ron Paul. Still others hope against hope that their chosen leader will yet join or rejoin the contest, such as those who say they will write in former Senator Fred Thompson’s name in their primary. Opinions, and emotions, have been strong among Republicans. To a point, this is all to the good, as such debate sharpens understanding of what our party stands for, and why. We will not choose a Republican version of John Kerry, just because someone has declared that he is the ‘most electable’. But that virtue only works to a point.
I believe that after today, the contest will still be in dispute, though someone will win the most of the contests decided on February 5. But it is entirely possible that McCain will dominate the primaries so strongly as to make it near-certain that he will win the nomination, or that Romney’s surge over the weekend will spur him on to a stunning advantage, or perhaps even Huckabee will produce a surprise as he did in Iowa. Regardless, after today Republicans will have to begin to come to grips with the coalescing of the ticket. There will be sharp disagreement on certain key issues, which simply cannot be glossed over, yet we must never, never forget that Hillary or Obama in the White House will certainly be worse than anything we would see from a Republican President. Whether or not we get a candidate who excites us, the lessons of 1976 and 1992 warn us that we cannot risk a Democrat in the White House, given the candidates they put up on their ticket.
The problem is, the Republican candidate – no matter whom he is – does not have the automatic right to support from the people who disapprove of him and disagree with his policies. All of the candidates still in the race on the Republican side have made statements to the effect that they are the most Reagan-like of the candidates. They should remember 1980, when Reagan took care to address the concerns of all Republicans, and to give fair hearing even to those opinions he did not share. Wheather McCain, Romney, or Huckabee, the candidate who wins the nomination must understand that double-talk or arrogance will not win over the Republicans not already on board, that no matter who wins the nomination they have a lot of work to do to mend fences, and that healing the divide in the party must be the top priority between winning the nomination and beginning the general campaign. Taking party support for granted only insures defeat, and the hardest truth is that no matter how much America needs a Republican President, the Republican candidate cannot win the White House simply by claiming the race is over and the party owes support to him, or by ignoring valid criticism and complaint. No one will be compelled to put away discontent or doubt of a candidate they did not support, so Reason alone may hope to settle the dispute. The party nominee, whomever he is, must be bold enough to stand against the Democrats’ onslaught of attacks and slime, yet must also be humble and open to the concerns of his whole party.
I believe that after today, the contest will still be in dispute, though someone will win the most of the contests decided on February 5. But it is entirely possible that McCain will dominate the primaries so strongly as to make it near-certain that he will win the nomination, or that Romney’s surge over the weekend will spur him on to a stunning advantage, or perhaps even Huckabee will produce a surprise as he did in Iowa. Regardless, after today Republicans will have to begin to come to grips with the coalescing of the ticket. There will be sharp disagreement on certain key issues, which simply cannot be glossed over, yet we must never, never forget that Hillary or Obama in the White House will certainly be worse than anything we would see from a Republican President. Whether or not we get a candidate who excites us, the lessons of 1976 and 1992 warn us that we cannot risk a Democrat in the White House, given the candidates they put up on their ticket.
The problem is, the Republican candidate – no matter whom he is – does not have the automatic right to support from the people who disapprove of him and disagree with his policies. All of the candidates still in the race on the Republican side have made statements to the effect that they are the most Reagan-like of the candidates. They should remember 1980, when Reagan took care to address the concerns of all Republicans, and to give fair hearing even to those opinions he did not share. Wheather McCain, Romney, or Huckabee, the candidate who wins the nomination must understand that double-talk or arrogance will not win over the Republicans not already on board, that no matter who wins the nomination they have a lot of work to do to mend fences, and that healing the divide in the party must be the top priority between winning the nomination and beginning the general campaign. Taking party support for granted only insures defeat, and the hardest truth is that no matter how much America needs a Republican President, the Republican candidate cannot win the White House simply by claiming the race is over and the party owes support to him, or by ignoring valid criticism and complaint. No one will be compelled to put away discontent or doubt of a candidate they did not support, so Reason alone may hope to settle the dispute. The party nominee, whomever he is, must be bold enough to stand against the Democrats’ onslaught of attacks and slime, yet must also be humble and open to the concerns of his whole party.
Monday, February 04, 2008
Government Spending Priorities
One thing that has puzzled me about Republicans in the last few years, has been spending. Like tax reform, we hear so much about how it’s got to change, yet little seems to change. But I also understand that to know how to solve a problem, you have to get a handle on the problem. So, I took a look to see where we’ve been spending money.
It’s interesting. Here’s a summary by Administration on what areas got money in the budgets. Because inflation is a factor to consider, I represent the numbers as percentage of the total budget, and show the categories which claimed 1% or more of the budget:
FDR (1940-45)
National Defense 70.8%
Physical Resources 5.8%
Human Resources 4.9%
Transportation 3.5%
International Affairs 1.6%
Social Services 1.4%
Environment 1.2%
Agriculture 1.2%
Truman (1946-52)
National Defense 37.3%
Human Resources 16.9%
Veterans Benefits 9.6%
International Affairs 6.8%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Transportation 1.8%
Environment 1.6%
General Government 1.6%
Social Security 1.5%
Agriculture 1.2%
Eisenhower (1953-60)
National Defense 43.9%
Human Resources 17.2%
Social Security 6.1%
Veterans Benefits 4.7%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Agriculture 2.7%
International Affairs 2.4%
Transportation 2.0%
Environment 1.1%
Kennedy (1961-63)
National Defense 33.4%
Human Resources 20.4%
Social Security 9.2%
Physical Resources 5.3%
Veterans Benefits 3.6%
International Affairs 3.0%
Transportation 2.8%
Agriculture 2.3%
Environment 1.3%
Science & Technology 1.2%
Johnson (1964-68)
National Defense 29.6%
Human Resources 21.1%
Social Security 9.4%
Physical Resources 6.1%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Transportation 2.7%
Science & Technology 2.7%
International Affairs 2.5%
Social Services 2.1%
Agriculture 1.7%
Environment 1.3%
Health 1.3%
Housing 1.2%
Nixon (1969-74)
Human Resources 28.0%
National Defense 22.4%
Social Security 11.2%
Physical Resources 5.2%
Social Services 3.0%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Transportation 2.3%
Health 2.2%
Medicare 2.0%
General Government 1.4%
Agriculture 1.3%
International Affairs 1.3%
Environment 1.2%
Energy 1.2%
Science & Technology 1.2%
Ford (1975-76)
Human Resources 31.7%
National Defense 14.8%
Social Security 11.7%
Physical Resources 6.3%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Social Services 2.9%
Health 2.4%
Medicare 2.4%
Transportation 2.1%
General Government 1.7%
Housing 1.5%
Environment 1.3%
International Affairs 1.1%
Carter (1977-80)
Human Resources 31.8%
National Defense 13.7%
Social Security 12.2%
Physical Resources 6.5%
Social Services 3.3%
Medicare 3.1%
Veterans Benefits 2.4%
Health 2.4%
Transportation 2.1%
General Government 1.5%
Environment 1.4%
Agriculture 1.2%
Community Development 1.2%
International Affairs 1.0%
Energy 1.0%
Reagan (1981-88)
Human Resources 32.7%
National Defense 17.1%
Social Security 13.3%
Medicare 4.4%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Health 2.4%
Social Services 2.1%
Veterans Benefits 1.9%
Transportation 1.8%
Agriculture 1.5%
Environment 1.0%
International Affairs 1.0%
G.H. Bush (1989-92)
Human Resources 33.8%
National Defense 15.0%
Social Security 13.2%
Physical Resources 5.3%
Medicare 5.2%
Health 3.4%
Housing 2.4%
Social Services 2.0%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.5%
Clinton (1993-2000)
Human Resources 38.5%
Social Security 14.1%
National Defense 11.0%
Medicare 6.8%
Health 4.9%
Physical Resources 2.7%
Social Services 1.9%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.6%
George W. Bush (2001-08)
Human Resources 38.0%
Social Security 12.8%
National Defense 11.4%
Physical Resources 3.1%
Medicare 7.3%
Health 5.8%
Social Services 2.2%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.7%
Justice Administration 1.0%
The key signals I see in these numbers are the biggest numbers, and what gets moved up and down as the years pass. “Human Resources” is just your basic government operating costs; cute, isn’t it, how the Federal Budget separates “General Government” from the cost of all those people, buildings, supplies and so on that make up the real cost of all those bureaucrats? The percentage of ‘HR’ of the total budget rises from 4.9% of the budget under FDR, all the way to 38.5% under Clinton. It is worth mentioning, that the only President in this track who reduced the proportion of ‘HR’ to the total budget, is George W. Bush, although it’s still an unsightly 38.0% of his budget. Also, you should look at Social Security and Medicare, which combined for less than 1 percent of FDR’s federal budget, but which increased every term on until it reached 20.1% of the federal budget under George W. Bush. Bear in mind that the President does not have control of the SSI and Medicare Budgets; only Congress can scale them back, and no Congress in memory has been in such a mood. Granted, Bush bears responsibility for the Prescription drug benefit package, but that may be balanced by his efforts to reform Social Security. On both ends of that point, it should be noted that Congress had the final say, and Congress clearly ignored its duty. Counting in the areas where the President has no or little control then (Human Resources, Physical Resources, Social Security and Medicare), we see that where FDR could address roughly 79.7% of the budget under his control, by the time we get to George W. Bush, he can only control about 23.7% of the budget. In real terms, this means that if a President wants to add resources to a priority goal, he has no choice but to increase the budget to do it.
It’s also interesting to see what got changed from President to President. Truman slashed military spending, but invested heavily in veteran benefits and the State Department. Eisenhower poured more money into Defense, but he also spent money on Agriculture. Kennedy focused on Science and diplomats, while LBJ built NASA and pursued his Great Society. Nixon focused on treaty organizations and government oversight of business and the environment, very much like McCain wants to do now. Ford slashed defense spending and focused on domestic issues, largely abandoning overseas initiatives which posed any apparent risk, much as Ron Paul says he would do. Carter spent more on researching alternative energy, and less on foreign commitments. Reagan did the opposite, rebuilding Defense and expanding U.S. interests abroad, while scaling back domestic government actions. G.H. Bush followed Reagan’s lead in spending, though he spent less on Defense. Clinton cut Defense to its smallest share of the budget since before World War 2, and spent more on infrastructure programs and health research. And George W. Bush renewed investments in Defense and trade agreements.
It’s interesting. Here’s a summary by Administration on what areas got money in the budgets. Because inflation is a factor to consider, I represent the numbers as percentage of the total budget, and show the categories which claimed 1% or more of the budget:
FDR (1940-45)
National Defense 70.8%
Physical Resources 5.8%
Human Resources 4.9%
Transportation 3.5%
International Affairs 1.6%
Social Services 1.4%
Environment 1.2%
Agriculture 1.2%
Truman (1946-52)
National Defense 37.3%
Human Resources 16.9%
Veterans Benefits 9.6%
International Affairs 6.8%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Transportation 1.8%
Environment 1.6%
General Government 1.6%
Social Security 1.5%
Agriculture 1.2%
Eisenhower (1953-60)
National Defense 43.9%
Human Resources 17.2%
Social Security 6.1%
Veterans Benefits 4.7%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Agriculture 2.7%
International Affairs 2.4%
Transportation 2.0%
Environment 1.1%
Kennedy (1961-63)
National Defense 33.4%
Human Resources 20.4%
Social Security 9.2%
Physical Resources 5.3%
Veterans Benefits 3.6%
International Affairs 3.0%
Transportation 2.8%
Agriculture 2.3%
Environment 1.3%
Science & Technology 1.2%
Johnson (1964-68)
National Defense 29.6%
Human Resources 21.1%
Social Security 9.4%
Physical Resources 6.1%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Transportation 2.7%
Science & Technology 2.7%
International Affairs 2.5%
Social Services 2.1%
Agriculture 1.7%
Environment 1.3%
Health 1.3%
Housing 1.2%
Nixon (1969-74)
Human Resources 28.0%
National Defense 22.4%
Social Security 11.2%
Physical Resources 5.2%
Social Services 3.0%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Transportation 2.3%
Health 2.2%
Medicare 2.0%
General Government 1.4%
Agriculture 1.3%
International Affairs 1.3%
Environment 1.2%
Energy 1.2%
Science & Technology 1.2%
Ford (1975-76)
Human Resources 31.7%
National Defense 14.8%
Social Security 11.7%
Physical Resources 6.3%
Veterans Benefits 2.9%
Social Services 2.9%
Health 2.4%
Medicare 2.4%
Transportation 2.1%
General Government 1.7%
Housing 1.5%
Environment 1.3%
International Affairs 1.1%
Carter (1977-80)
Human Resources 31.8%
National Defense 13.7%
Social Security 12.2%
Physical Resources 6.5%
Social Services 3.3%
Medicare 3.1%
Veterans Benefits 2.4%
Health 2.4%
Transportation 2.1%
General Government 1.5%
Environment 1.4%
Agriculture 1.2%
Community Development 1.2%
International Affairs 1.0%
Energy 1.0%
Reagan (1981-88)
Human Resources 32.7%
National Defense 17.1%
Social Security 13.3%
Medicare 4.4%
Physical Resources 4.4%
Health 2.4%
Social Services 2.1%
Veterans Benefits 1.9%
Transportation 1.8%
Agriculture 1.5%
Environment 1.0%
International Affairs 1.0%
G.H. Bush (1989-92)
Human Resources 33.8%
National Defense 15.0%
Social Security 13.2%
Physical Resources 5.3%
Medicare 5.2%
Health 3.4%
Housing 2.4%
Social Services 2.0%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.5%
Clinton (1993-2000)
Human Resources 38.5%
Social Security 14.1%
National Defense 11.0%
Medicare 6.8%
Health 4.9%
Physical Resources 2.7%
Social Services 1.9%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.6%
George W. Bush (2001-08)
Human Resources 38.0%
Social Security 12.8%
National Defense 11.4%
Physical Resources 3.1%
Medicare 7.3%
Health 5.8%
Social Services 2.2%
Veterans Benefits 1.6%
Transportation 1.7%
Justice Administration 1.0%
The key signals I see in these numbers are the biggest numbers, and what gets moved up and down as the years pass. “Human Resources” is just your basic government operating costs; cute, isn’t it, how the Federal Budget separates “General Government” from the cost of all those people, buildings, supplies and so on that make up the real cost of all those bureaucrats? The percentage of ‘HR’ of the total budget rises from 4.9% of the budget under FDR, all the way to 38.5% under Clinton. It is worth mentioning, that the only President in this track who reduced the proportion of ‘HR’ to the total budget, is George W. Bush, although it’s still an unsightly 38.0% of his budget. Also, you should look at Social Security and Medicare, which combined for less than 1 percent of FDR’s federal budget, but which increased every term on until it reached 20.1% of the federal budget under George W. Bush. Bear in mind that the President does not have control of the SSI and Medicare Budgets; only Congress can scale them back, and no Congress in memory has been in such a mood. Granted, Bush bears responsibility for the Prescription drug benefit package, but that may be balanced by his efforts to reform Social Security. On both ends of that point, it should be noted that Congress had the final say, and Congress clearly ignored its duty. Counting in the areas where the President has no or little control then (Human Resources, Physical Resources, Social Security and Medicare), we see that where FDR could address roughly 79.7% of the budget under his control, by the time we get to George W. Bush, he can only control about 23.7% of the budget. In real terms, this means that if a President wants to add resources to a priority goal, he has no choice but to increase the budget to do it.
It’s also interesting to see what got changed from President to President. Truman slashed military spending, but invested heavily in veteran benefits and the State Department. Eisenhower poured more money into Defense, but he also spent money on Agriculture. Kennedy focused on Science and diplomats, while LBJ built NASA and pursued his Great Society. Nixon focused on treaty organizations and government oversight of business and the environment, very much like McCain wants to do now. Ford slashed defense spending and focused on domestic issues, largely abandoning overseas initiatives which posed any apparent risk, much as Ron Paul says he would do. Carter spent more on researching alternative energy, and less on foreign commitments. Reagan did the opposite, rebuilding Defense and expanding U.S. interests abroad, while scaling back domestic government actions. G.H. Bush followed Reagan’s lead in spending, though he spent less on Defense. Clinton cut Defense to its smallest share of the budget since before World War 2, and spent more on infrastructure programs and health research. And George W. Bush renewed investments in Defense and trade agreements.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Primaries, Polls, and Position = Potential Problems?
The polls this year are a bit strange. Real Clear Politics shows McCain leading Romney in ten out of eleven states going into Super Tuesday, where twenty-one states will hold a caucus or primary to choose the Republican nominee for President. This would appear to be a commanding lead for McCain, and many pundits have gone so far as to claim the race is already over. What’s odd about that, is that discussions with Republicans shows a strong distaste in the party for McCain as the nominee, and many people have insisted they would never vote for McCain. So, how is it that the polls say something which is so different from sentiment among real people? Is there a ‘silent majority’ for McCain? Is there an effort by the polls to get McCain nominated? Is someone lying? On the available evidence and the history of past elections, the answer to all three questions would appear to be ‘no’.
To examine this farther, let’s look at California’s primary, where 173 delegates are at stake. That’s more than twice what any of the delegates has right now, and it’s the richest prize in Super Tuesday’s fat wallet of nomination support. RCP’s average shows McCain 5.0 percentage points ahead of Romney.
But when we look a bit closer, a different picture begins to appear. The RCP average is built from the major polls taken between January 29 and February 2; of those McCain’s range of support runs from 32% (Rasmussen) to 40% (Mason-Dixon), while Romney’s range of support runs from 24% (Field) to 37% (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby), which creates a statistical overlap of 66% (McCain has a 9-point range of support, but only the top 3% is higher than poll numbers reached by Romney in the same period). This is important, because polls are not static conditions but fluid; they change all the time, and a report from a polling agency is a snapshot of one look from one perspective – this is one reason why different polls will report different results, even when using the same methodology. Also, it should be observed that while McCain has the lead in California in 4 of the 5 polls used by RCP for their current average, the poll with the highest number of respondents and therefore the lowest statistical margin of error (the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, with 1185 Likely Voters; the next highest is Rasmussen with only 652 Likely Voters), shows Romney leading McCain in California 37% to 34%. That poll is also the most recent.
I am not going to jump to conclusions from the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, however, for a number of reasons. First, while I am confident that the major polls are doing their best to produce an authentic reflection of voter sentiment, it is never a good idea to depend on just one poll for your conclusions. Also, the R/C/Z poll notes that 13% of the voters are undecided, which is far greater than the difference spanning the two top candidates. Also, I have found in years past that no matter what the stated margin of error is, an analyst should not regard any poll as a significant indicator, when the margin between two candidates is 3 points or less. That’s not only because the margin of error is often that large or greater, but also because fluctuations in support can – even in a short time – change the picture substantially. And in the case of the California primary, there is another detail which drastically damages the validity of any poll reported up to now; the congressional district allocation of delegates.
Here’s the thing; the primary will award 173 delegates, which makes California arguably the most important state in the primary campaign. But the candidate who gets the most votes in California does not get all of those 173 delegates, at least not just because he has the most votes in the state. In fact, it is completely possible that a candidate could “win” California through popular support, but claim fewer delegates than an opponent. This is because the delegates are awarded in California on a congressional district basis. Each district will tally up its results and award delegates on the basis, solely, from that district’s election results. That makes California not one state primary, but in real practice it is 53 separate mini-primaries, which collectively will award the delegates. Anyone familiar with California knows that there are liberal areas of the state, and there are conservative areas of the state, and there are nutjob areas of the state; it would be hopelessly naïve for anyone to expect one candidate to win in every one of the congressional districts. The results of the primary are far too complex for opinion polling to give a clear and confident answer about who will claim the most delegates there.
Why don’t the media, or even the polls, tell you this? Because they are in the media business. Polling groups exist not just to collect and analyze data for their clients (who, by the way, are not the general public – you should always be wary of any information you get from a for-profit group for free), but to build their company name and sell attention. A poll which never says anything unexpected or controversial will never gain prominence. Also, the media in general makes its living by making clear statements. They would much rather sell a good story and admit later that they were wrong (like New Hampshire’s primary this year), than admit how much of their predictions are pure guesswork and assumption. The idea is to keep you interested. This is why stories about Britney outnumber stories about Darfur, for example.
I’d like to finish with a final caveat about the polls. The best poll I have ever seen, based on its methodology, its transparency of procedure, and its explanation of results, is the Gallup poll. However, even the Gallup poll has limits to how good its data can be found. In discussing its methodology of recent primary polling, Gallup reported the following Methodology in its daily tracking polls:
“Methodology: Gallup is interviewing 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The results reported here are based on combined data from Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008, including interviews with 1,080 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and 1,205 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.”
The significance of that note comes from close examination of the statements. The respondents are not registered voters, or people who voted in the last election. In fact, to reach enough people for their poll results, the Republican and Democrat results are, well, diluted a bit to include “Republican-leaning” and “Democrat-leaning”, which when you think about it can be said to mean independents, and people who do not normally vote because they do not identify with either party’s values enough to call themselves Republican or Democrat directly. Thus, even the Gallup poll cannot be said to cleanly reflect the sentiments and opinions of mainstream Republicans and Democrats. Given the way the primaries are set up, these ‘Republican-leaning’ voters and ‘Democrat-leaning’ voters may be able to vote in their state’s caucus or primary, but history shows that people who do not strongly identify with a party or candidate are generally unlikely to take the time and trouble to vote. This is a final and significant point to consider when applying opinion poll reports to a projection of a primary election.
To examine this farther, let’s look at California’s primary, where 173 delegates are at stake. That’s more than twice what any of the delegates has right now, and it’s the richest prize in Super Tuesday’s fat wallet of nomination support. RCP’s average shows McCain 5.0 percentage points ahead of Romney.
But when we look a bit closer, a different picture begins to appear. The RCP average is built from the major polls taken between January 29 and February 2; of those McCain’s range of support runs from 32% (Rasmussen) to 40% (Mason-Dixon), while Romney’s range of support runs from 24% (Field) to 37% (Reuters/CSpan/Zogby), which creates a statistical overlap of 66% (McCain has a 9-point range of support, but only the top 3% is higher than poll numbers reached by Romney in the same period). This is important, because polls are not static conditions but fluid; they change all the time, and a report from a polling agency is a snapshot of one look from one perspective – this is one reason why different polls will report different results, even when using the same methodology. Also, it should be observed that while McCain has the lead in California in 4 of the 5 polls used by RCP for their current average, the poll with the highest number of respondents and therefore the lowest statistical margin of error (the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, with 1185 Likely Voters; the next highest is Rasmussen with only 652 Likely Voters), shows Romney leading McCain in California 37% to 34%. That poll is also the most recent.
I am not going to jump to conclusions from the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby poll, however, for a number of reasons. First, while I am confident that the major polls are doing their best to produce an authentic reflection of voter sentiment, it is never a good idea to depend on just one poll for your conclusions. Also, the R/C/Z poll notes that 13% of the voters are undecided, which is far greater than the difference spanning the two top candidates. Also, I have found in years past that no matter what the stated margin of error is, an analyst should not regard any poll as a significant indicator, when the margin between two candidates is 3 points or less. That’s not only because the margin of error is often that large or greater, but also because fluctuations in support can – even in a short time – change the picture substantially. And in the case of the California primary, there is another detail which drastically damages the validity of any poll reported up to now; the congressional district allocation of delegates.
Here’s the thing; the primary will award 173 delegates, which makes California arguably the most important state in the primary campaign. But the candidate who gets the most votes in California does not get all of those 173 delegates, at least not just because he has the most votes in the state. In fact, it is completely possible that a candidate could “win” California through popular support, but claim fewer delegates than an opponent. This is because the delegates are awarded in California on a congressional district basis. Each district will tally up its results and award delegates on the basis, solely, from that district’s election results. That makes California not one state primary, but in real practice it is 53 separate mini-primaries, which collectively will award the delegates. Anyone familiar with California knows that there are liberal areas of the state, and there are conservative areas of the state, and there are nutjob areas of the state; it would be hopelessly naïve for anyone to expect one candidate to win in every one of the congressional districts. The results of the primary are far too complex for opinion polling to give a clear and confident answer about who will claim the most delegates there.
Why don’t the media, or even the polls, tell you this? Because they are in the media business. Polling groups exist not just to collect and analyze data for their clients (who, by the way, are not the general public – you should always be wary of any information you get from a for-profit group for free), but to build their company name and sell attention. A poll which never says anything unexpected or controversial will never gain prominence. Also, the media in general makes its living by making clear statements. They would much rather sell a good story and admit later that they were wrong (like New Hampshire’s primary this year), than admit how much of their predictions are pure guesswork and assumption. The idea is to keep you interested. This is why stories about Britney outnumber stories about Darfur, for example.
I’d like to finish with a final caveat about the polls. The best poll I have ever seen, based on its methodology, its transparency of procedure, and its explanation of results, is the Gallup poll. However, even the Gallup poll has limits to how good its data can be found. In discussing its methodology of recent primary polling, Gallup reported the following Methodology in its daily tracking polls:
“Methodology: Gallup is interviewing 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008. The results reported here are based on combined data from Jan. 30-Feb. 1, 2008, including interviews with 1,080 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and 1,205 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.”
The significance of that note comes from close examination of the statements. The respondents are not registered voters, or people who voted in the last election. In fact, to reach enough people for their poll results, the Republican and Democrat results are, well, diluted a bit to include “Republican-leaning” and “Democrat-leaning”, which when you think about it can be said to mean independents, and people who do not normally vote because they do not identify with either party’s values enough to call themselves Republican or Democrat directly. Thus, even the Gallup poll cannot be said to cleanly reflect the sentiments and opinions of mainstream Republicans and Democrats. Given the way the primaries are set up, these ‘Republican-leaning’ voters and ‘Democrat-leaning’ voters may be able to vote in their state’s caucus or primary, but history shows that people who do not strongly identify with a party or candidate are generally unlikely to take the time and trouble to vote. This is a final and significant point to consider when applying opinion poll reports to a projection of a primary election.
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