[]-[]-[]
One strange thing about the political party in control of the government, is that they seldom seem content to accept their good conditions. When Democrats held absolute control of the U.S. Government during the FDR Administration, many leading Democrats took issue with various elements of Roosevelt’s policies, sometimes for reasons which amounted to little more than personal pique.
Some Republicans are starting to do the same thing now, in Dubya’s second term. Some may be speaking out of personal ambition, or in hopes of gaining influence with the various cliques, while others may be speaking out of genuine concern for the ideal of government restraint.
The function of government should be limited, but it should also be present. George Washington said many times that he opposed the concept of a standing army in principle, but the world given to us made a standing army unavoidably necessary. So, in addition to from an ideal perspective, one must also consider tasks and duties which cannot be avoided. The discussion then should focus on the best objectives and standards.
I have always been of two minds about Franklin Roosevelt. On the one hand, his “New Deal” corrupted the role of government on all levels, increasing the federal role beyond any reasonable position, feeding the avarice of future politicians by showing how to buy votes with tax revenues, and shifting the nature of the country from self-sufficiency to an unhealthy dependence on government. On the other hand however, the United States was clearly in a Depression caused from unique factors which arguably could not be addressed without specific and significant government involvement, and which remedy depended on restoration of consumer confidence. That is, economists understand that the Depression of the 1930s was not caused so much by the ‘crash’ of the New York Stock Market, or even the failure of the banks, as it was the collapse of confidence by Americans in their infrastructure. When people lost confidence in the stock market, it crashed; when they took all their money out of banks, the banks failed; when people worried they could not afford to spend money, they closed off the flow of cash and killed the businesses in a self-fulfilling prophecy. The critical factor in recovery from any downturn is restoration of confidence, to get the money flow moving again.
The devastation from Hurricane Katrina, whatever one names for its fault, unquestionably did severe damage to dozens of towns and counties in several states. While many of the citizens and businesses could eventually recover on their own in normal conditions from a natural disaster restricted in locality, in this case major employers, credit unions and state banks, and county-level infrastructures have been destroyed, so that an individual must find someone to employ him, someone to protect his money, and someone to address his police and municipal needs. In other words, hundreds of thousands of people will need to see municipal authority re-established, after which businesses and banks need to be re-established and primed, and then people can rebuild and find new employment. The requirements are multi-dimensional, and the need for government oversight and direction is obvious. As a result, President Bush’s decision to involve the federal government at close level makes solid sense.
A fair analogy, if somewhat imperfect, would be starting up a business intended to become a major corporation. Because so many employees are needed, to serve so many customers in so many places, there needs to be substantial initial investment and detailed planning. The corporation would spend a great deal of money up front in capital expenditure, but would gain a great deal more later from the revenue driven by their planning. Better planning = better results, and that brings us to the next point about rebuilding Louisiana.
I don’t know how many of the victims of Katrina will return to New Orleans specifically, but it is reasonable to say now that (in spite of reasonable risk concerns) the city with so much historical and cultural significance will be restored, especially the French Quarter. That task must have some government control, if for no reason beyond its scope. Responsibility for that rebuilding, and no small amount of resources, may be entrusted to Local officials like Mayor Nagin, State officials like Governor Blanco, or Federal agencies. This too shows good consideration by the President.
There are hundreds of ways the rebuilding could lead to incompetence, negligence, or corruption. But if it is done correctly, the rebuilding can lead to a stronger infrastructure, more reliable and accountable government, and a much stronger economy. Obviously, the results will not be fully seen for at least a decade, but to me that just shows the foresight and serious competency of President Bush.
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Friday, September 16, 2005
The NYT/CBS notion of Balance and Demographics Weighting
oooooooo
Tom Elia at The New Editor asks “Is the Latest NYT/CBS Poll Biased?”
Off the top of my head, the answer is ‘yes’. On reflection, ‘yes’. On prolonged consideration and after examining the evidence and history, ‘absolutely yes’.
Fortunately, as I have mentioned before, the funny thing about the NYT/CBS Poll, is that for all their arrogance and bias, they are pretty forward about presenting their numbers, which makes it possible to reverse-engineer the poll and determine a true state.
The first thing which jumps out at me comes up right on the first page of the poll results. Right under the title and date is the following note:
“N=1,167
White N = 877
Black N = 211”
In other words, 877 of the respondents were white (~75%), 211 of the respondents were black (~18%), and another 79 respondents were neither black nor white (~7%), possibly meaning Hispanic, though the NYT/CBS does not say.
The Census reports that whites comprise about 82% of the population, blacks about 13%, and other races about 5%. This demonstrates a demographic mis-weighting by the poll.
Continuing, the overall support was 12% by blacks and 47% by whites, both well within historical norms for Dubya during his Presidency, especially in this generally sour poll. 49% of whites approve of how Bush has addressed Katrina, very respectable considering the absolute smear job against him by the MSM, and 18% of blacks agree he’s done well in responding to Katrina, which is higher than the black support in general for Bush. When the question is phrased in terms of the “people affected by Katrina”, white support climbs to 50% and black support to 23%, again both very good in the context presented.
I thought it interesting that the poll focused mainly on four questions, treating them very much as related to each other. The poll addressed the response to Katrina, the condition of the economy, and the War in Iraq. The poll also paid attention to the confirmation hearings on John Roberts, even though nearly half the respondents admit they have paid almost no attention to them.
Returning to demographics, the NYT/CBS poll states that 22% of the respondents were 18-29 years of age. The Roper Center shows that in the 2004 election, only 17% of voters were 29 years old or younger, so again there is an obvious imbalance. And as Elia noted in his column, the NYT/CBS Poll shows a 36% Democrat/26% Republican/28% Independent/9% Don’t Know breakdown, far off the 37%-37%-26% balance reflected by the Roper Exit Poll.
Also, and this is important, the NYT/CBS Poll admits that 20% of its respondents did not vote in the 2004 Election, and another 6% say they voted but don’t know whom they voted for!
So, at this point we can safely say that the NYT/CBS Poll is not, in fact, trustworthy, nor should they be believed in their claims. The poll oversamples blacks, Democrats, people under 30, and people who did not vote in the last election and who admit they are not paying close attention to what is going on in important events. In other words, just the sort of people who get their news and opinion from the New York Times or CBS News, instead of checking out the facts.
Tom Elia at The New Editor asks “Is the Latest NYT/CBS Poll Biased?”
Off the top of my head, the answer is ‘yes’. On reflection, ‘yes’. On prolonged consideration and after examining the evidence and history, ‘absolutely yes’.
Fortunately, as I have mentioned before, the funny thing about the NYT/CBS Poll, is that for all their arrogance and bias, they are pretty forward about presenting their numbers, which makes it possible to reverse-engineer the poll and determine a true state.
The first thing which jumps out at me comes up right on the first page of the poll results. Right under the title and date is the following note:
“N=1,167
White N = 877
Black N = 211”
In other words, 877 of the respondents were white (~75%), 211 of the respondents were black (~18%), and another 79 respondents were neither black nor white (~7%), possibly meaning Hispanic, though the NYT/CBS does not say.
The Census reports that whites comprise about 82% of the population, blacks about 13%, and other races about 5%. This demonstrates a demographic mis-weighting by the poll.
Continuing, the overall support was 12% by blacks and 47% by whites, both well within historical norms for Dubya during his Presidency, especially in this generally sour poll. 49% of whites approve of how Bush has addressed Katrina, very respectable considering the absolute smear job against him by the MSM, and 18% of blacks agree he’s done well in responding to Katrina, which is higher than the black support in general for Bush. When the question is phrased in terms of the “people affected by Katrina”, white support climbs to 50% and black support to 23%, again both very good in the context presented.
I thought it interesting that the poll focused mainly on four questions, treating them very much as related to each other. The poll addressed the response to Katrina, the condition of the economy, and the War in Iraq. The poll also paid attention to the confirmation hearings on John Roberts, even though nearly half the respondents admit they have paid almost no attention to them.
Returning to demographics, the NYT/CBS poll states that 22% of the respondents were 18-29 years of age. The Roper Center shows that in the 2004 election, only 17% of voters were 29 years old or younger, so again there is an obvious imbalance. And as Elia noted in his column, the NYT/CBS Poll shows a 36% Democrat/26% Republican/28% Independent/9% Don’t Know breakdown, far off the 37%-37%-26% balance reflected by the Roper Exit Poll.
Also, and this is important, the NYT/CBS Poll admits that 20% of its respondents did not vote in the 2004 Election, and another 6% say they voted but don’t know whom they voted for!
So, at this point we can safely say that the NYT/CBS Poll is not, in fact, trustworthy, nor should they be believed in their claims. The poll oversamples blacks, Democrats, people under 30, and people who did not vote in the last election and who admit they are not paying close attention to what is going on in important events. In other words, just the sort of people who get their news and opinion from the New York Times or CBS News, instead of checking out the facts.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
The New Asia
[/\]
Bruce Kesler, writing for Democracy Project, is discussing Japan in today’s article.
He begins with this observation:
“In the 1950’s, we laughed at “Made in Japan” labels for kitsch and poor quality. In the 1970’s, we stopped laughing and panicked to catch up to Japanese quality and management focus. In the 1990’s we hoped we had gotten our money out of the Japanese stock market in time. In the 2000’s, we’ve largely just ignored Japan.”
From my perspective, we actually didn’t notice Japan until the late 1970s. During the first half of the decade, Japan stood for cheap little cars which didn’t drive well, but by 1978 and later people were worried enough about the price of gas to buy them anyway. In the 1980s, and especially after 1986, Honda and Toyota had clearly passed American-made cars in quality and performance. In the 1990s, we first worried that Japan was buying up American businesses and real estate, but by 1998 we were generally amused to discover Japan had paid far too much for the land, and in a chase for hard currency, investors were selling property back to Americans at heavy losses, which damaged the appearance of respect and cooperation; more than a few leading Japanese accused the U.S. of manipulating the market to play the Japanese for fools, or at least for unfairly taking advantage of the situation, which is ironically amusing, given Japan’s abuse of the Trade imbalance and Tariff games played so long by MITI.
Kesler used his article to reference the columns by Sol Sanders, especially the ones focusing on changes under Prime Minister Koizumi. I agree that Sanders, like Kesler, is experienced and knows his subject well, but I would also argue for the broader view, and in this point I find myself somewhat a defender of the Clinton Doctrine, insofar as Bubba ever put one together.
As a faithful husband, I have no respect for President Clinton’s personal conduct while in office at any level, and as an American, I agree with those who contend that Clinton damaged National Security by lowering the restrictions on American technology that the Chinese wanted to buy, steal, or otherwise acquire. That said however, I think Clinton had a good perception of the Asian pantheon, ironically superior than is possible from within the Pacific Rim. Also, too close a focus on any one of the Asian nations misses the balance between them.
Japan is an economic powerhouse, and many analysts believe they have the world’s third-best navy, perhaps the second-best. However, they have real issues in relations with their Asian neighbors, not only because of lingering bitterness from World War 2 (which Japan refuses to discuss in specifics), but also from trade practices which lead many nations to consider Japan unreliable. In business, you cannot succeed if you cannot be trusted.
South Korea is a growing regional power, and a true thorn in the side, and a permanent one, for Japan. Not only is SK’s industrial capacity growing to the same scale as Japan’s, their geographic location gives them comparable logistics. It is not a coincidence that DaeWoo and Hyundai are strong brands, as known for quality as they are for price.
China is still the 900-pound-gorilla in the room, but also still a very clumsy one. Until the PRC allows for independent audits and audited financial statements, they will attract some investment because of their sheer size, but will chase away plum contracts because their track record is suspect. It seems impossible to imagine a functional Chinese version of the SEC at this time, however.
Vietnam is another growing industry center, although their forte seems to be shipping, like Holland. Clever in its way, since it avoids direct competition with the neighboring countries.
And then there’s India. India is absolutely a wild card in any discussion, not only on the economic front, which is diversified and pretty complex, but also the military front, where India’s modernized navy and much more disciplined army cannot help but effect the balance of influence in the region.
And all that does not even touch the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, or the islands of Micronesia, often forgotten but still a major player in many technology contracts.
Get a scorecard; it’s not just Japan.
Bruce Kesler, writing for Democracy Project, is discussing Japan in today’s article.
He begins with this observation:
“In the 1950’s, we laughed at “Made in Japan” labels for kitsch and poor quality. In the 1970’s, we stopped laughing and panicked to catch up to Japanese quality and management focus. In the 1990’s we hoped we had gotten our money out of the Japanese stock market in time. In the 2000’s, we’ve largely just ignored Japan.”
From my perspective, we actually didn’t notice Japan until the late 1970s. During the first half of the decade, Japan stood for cheap little cars which didn’t drive well, but by 1978 and later people were worried enough about the price of gas to buy them anyway. In the 1980s, and especially after 1986, Honda and Toyota had clearly passed American-made cars in quality and performance. In the 1990s, we first worried that Japan was buying up American businesses and real estate, but by 1998 we were generally amused to discover Japan had paid far too much for the land, and in a chase for hard currency, investors were selling property back to Americans at heavy losses, which damaged the appearance of respect and cooperation; more than a few leading Japanese accused the U.S. of manipulating the market to play the Japanese for fools, or at least for unfairly taking advantage of the situation, which is ironically amusing, given Japan’s abuse of the Trade imbalance and Tariff games played so long by MITI.
Kesler used his article to reference the columns by Sol Sanders, especially the ones focusing on changes under Prime Minister Koizumi. I agree that Sanders, like Kesler, is experienced and knows his subject well, but I would also argue for the broader view, and in this point I find myself somewhat a defender of the Clinton Doctrine, insofar as Bubba ever put one together.
As a faithful husband, I have no respect for President Clinton’s personal conduct while in office at any level, and as an American, I agree with those who contend that Clinton damaged National Security by lowering the restrictions on American technology that the Chinese wanted to buy, steal, or otherwise acquire. That said however, I think Clinton had a good perception of the Asian pantheon, ironically superior than is possible from within the Pacific Rim. Also, too close a focus on any one of the Asian nations misses the balance between them.
Japan is an economic powerhouse, and many analysts believe they have the world’s third-best navy, perhaps the second-best. However, they have real issues in relations with their Asian neighbors, not only because of lingering bitterness from World War 2 (which Japan refuses to discuss in specifics), but also from trade practices which lead many nations to consider Japan unreliable. In business, you cannot succeed if you cannot be trusted.
South Korea is a growing regional power, and a true thorn in the side, and a permanent one, for Japan. Not only is SK’s industrial capacity growing to the same scale as Japan’s, their geographic location gives them comparable logistics. It is not a coincidence that DaeWoo and Hyundai are strong brands, as known for quality as they are for price.
China is still the 900-pound-gorilla in the room, but also still a very clumsy one. Until the PRC allows for independent audits and audited financial statements, they will attract some investment because of their sheer size, but will chase away plum contracts because their track record is suspect. It seems impossible to imagine a functional Chinese version of the SEC at this time, however.
Vietnam is another growing industry center, although their forte seems to be shipping, like Holland. Clever in its way, since it avoids direct competition with the neighboring countries.
And then there’s India. India is absolutely a wild card in any discussion, not only on the economic front, which is diversified and pretty complex, but also the military front, where India’s modernized navy and much more disciplined army cannot help but effect the balance of influence in the region.
And all that does not even touch the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, or the islands of Micronesia, often forgotten but still a major player in many technology contracts.
Get a scorecard; it’s not just Japan.
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Dude, Where’s My Car? Seriously, Where Is My Car?
~~~~~~~~~~~~
I like looking at statistics. Finding out I have become one is rather less intriguing.
Last night, I happened to notice my car as my wife were talking on our porch. This morning, I happened to notice that a different car was parked in the place where I left my car on Tuesday. After checking the lot to make sure I was not simply I had not simply been mistaken, I received that sick feeling in my gut, realizing that someone else liked my car as well, enough to acquire it during the night.
I did all the expected things, calling the police and insurance and the EZ-Tag people. Naturally, since my car was getting old and had a lot of miles on it, I had dropped the full coverage a couple years earlier, getting by with just Liability and UM coverage, so that means I get nothing for the loss. Just swell.
It also means that I have to keep checking my bank and credit card accounts regularly, to be sure that I didn’t accidentally leave something in the car that can come back and cause more problems. Like anyone else in this situation, I did not need this in my life, and whatever I do next, will end up being expensive and annoying. New cars are obscenely expensive, and buying a used car almost assures one of collecting a new set of less-than-appealing qualities with the car, even if one spends a great deal of car and attention trying to get the right one. And even if, by some mercy from God, I actually get my old Honda back, I have no illusions that the thieves will have been kind to it, or left everything as it should be. Worse, more than a few people have told me that my particular year and model is prized, ordinary as it looks, for its hard-to-find parts. Hardly a cheering thought.
What’s it mean? I couldn’t say just now. Maybe later I will come up with some witty insight that makes it relevant to politics or the day’s events, but for now I am focused on an immediate and personal need, and everything else must bide.
I like looking at statistics. Finding out I have become one is rather less intriguing.
Last night, I happened to notice my car as my wife were talking on our porch. This morning, I happened to notice that a different car was parked in the place where I left my car on Tuesday. After checking the lot to make sure I was not simply I had not simply been mistaken, I received that sick feeling in my gut, realizing that someone else liked my car as well, enough to acquire it during the night.
I did all the expected things, calling the police and insurance and the EZ-Tag people. Naturally, since my car was getting old and had a lot of miles on it, I had dropped the full coverage a couple years earlier, getting by with just Liability and UM coverage, so that means I get nothing for the loss. Just swell.
It also means that I have to keep checking my bank and credit card accounts regularly, to be sure that I didn’t accidentally leave something in the car that can come back and cause more problems. Like anyone else in this situation, I did not need this in my life, and whatever I do next, will end up being expensive and annoying. New cars are obscenely expensive, and buying a used car almost assures one of collecting a new set of less-than-appealing qualities with the car, even if one spends a great deal of car and attention trying to get the right one. And even if, by some mercy from God, I actually get my old Honda back, I have no illusions that the thieves will have been kind to it, or left everything as it should be. Worse, more than a few people have told me that my particular year and model is prized, ordinary as it looks, for its hard-to-find parts. Hardly a cheering thought.
What’s it mean? I couldn’t say just now. Maybe later I will come up with some witty insight that makes it relevant to politics or the day’s events, but for now I am focused on an immediate and personal need, and everything else must bide.
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Accusation, Revealed
???????
Over on Polipundit, I promised to name the culprit most responsible for the absolute Cluster-Fudge that was New Orleans between August 29th and September 1st. For four days, it seemed that no one was in charge, knew what to do, or cared about the more than a million people affected by Hurricane Katrina in the Southeast Louisiana area. To be sure, there were conditions no one could control, and also there is no question that certain individuals set themselves apart, but in dishonor and personal disgrace. But when one starts to sift the facts out, one man becomes clearly involved in every major blunder, every key decision involving New Orleans, and one man who had contact with every decision-maker, in many cases the man expected to tell them the conditions, needs, and options. That man did so horrible a job, that in any just universe he will face criminal charges. That man is Major General Bennett C. Landreneau, who is also the head of Louisiana's Department of Homeland Security.
As many people know, the City of New Orleans did have a hurricane preparation and response plan. The plan is aligned with the official "State of Louisiana Emergency Operations Plan, Supplement 1A".
Unfortunately, the City of New Orleans did not train for it, nor did they follow its provisions when the event happened. But that part can be discussed in another article.
The plans specified state and local actions which simply did not happen, including (City and State use identical plan references)
D1b. The Governor will, after declaring a State of Emergency, "Issue supplemental declarations and orders", to address specific needs not covered by the initial declaration. That is the part where the Governor needed to ask for troops from out-of-state, rather than assume they would just show up.
D1c. "Authorize and direct the use of State government personnel and other resources to deal with the emergency."
D1d. "Authorize and direct the authorities of non-risk parishes to coordinate the opening and operation of shelters with DSS in conjunction with ARC, and to lend all possible assistance to the evacuation and shelter effort." (DSS is the Department of Social Services, ARC is American Red Cross)
D1e. "Request federal government assistance as needed."
The Adjutant General/Director of the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness (LOEP) is charged in section D2 with the coordination of the Governor's actions and declarations, and to "keep the Governor and the Legislature informed of progress and problems in dealing with the disaster."
The Louisiana State Police are charged in D3. to "maintain order on State highways and expedite the flow of traffic from the risk to the host parishes"
The Department of Social Services is charged in D5 to "coordinate the opening of shelters in conjunction with the ARC for evacuees from the risk area."
The Department of Health and Hospitals is charged in D6 to "coordinate the evacuation and sheltering of people who have special medical and health needs".
The New Orleans plan, in section E, says that "direction and control is specified in the State Emergency Operations Plan".
That puts us back the matter of coordination. What happens, essentially, is that the Adjutant General of Louisiana‘s Department of Homeland Security (not to be confused with the U.S. DHS) is responsible for telling the Governor what ia happening and what needs to be done next. The same man is responsible for coordinating state agencies with the parishes which need help, in this case most critically with Mayor Nagin. That same man is also responsible for telling FEMA where the people fleeing the storm are going, and making sure they get the water, food, medicine, and other supplies they need. As we have seen in the actual event, none of those things were done, and they all depended on General Landreneau. It is clear from the evidence, that the man had no idea what he was doing, and lacked the sense to get out of the way until President replaced him with General Honore on Wednesday. The timeline shows that once Landreneau was replaced, the system began to work.
FEMA coordinates the actions of twenty-seven federal agencies, as explained briefly here, and in depth here.
In Section III, Roles and Responsibilities (pdf page 28 of 426), FEMA explains that the Federal government may coordinate multiple agencies under the provisions of the Stafford Act. FEMA, as its name suggests, is a Manager of Agencies, responsible for coordination, and totally dependent on information from and cooperation with local and state agencies.
The Stafford Act, in essence, manages relief resources supplied by the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, the Mennonite Disaster Service, "and any other relief or disaster assistance organizations" operating to assist in relief efforts. That is, FEMA's first actions are to coordinate the supplies and aid being brought in by the extant relief groups. FEMA does not establish shelters or perform evacuations, does not command police or armed forces, and must depend on the information and cooperation received from the stateÂ’s authorized commander for disaster relief. In other states, FEMA was relatively swift and effective, but in Louisiana, FEMA was obstructed by the LDHS.
Now, about General Landreneau. The first words from the General were in an August 29th press conference, where he assured the press that 200 boats were positioned to go in to rescue stranded victims, "as soon as the winds decrease". In the actual fact, far fewer boats weravailablele, and they went out much later.
On that same date, Landreneau downplayed the initial effects of Katrina, as his agency suggested the hurricane had already done its worst. "Officials originally were concerned that hurricane protection levees would be topped, but Katrina's drift to the east apparently kept that from occurring" said an article interviewing the general.
That same article quoted Landreneau as saying "there was a report that there was a breech or overtopping of a levee on the 17th Street Canal, which divides Jefferson and Orleans. Some areas had been flooded, perhaps in the Lakeview section of New Orleans." Landreneau did not understand the importance of his own information.
Confusion was evident sometimes in the very same statement. In one place, "Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau, adjutant general for the Louisiana National Guard, said that the number of people taking shelter in the Superdome has risen to around 15,000 to 20,000 as search and rescue teams bring more people to the Superdome from areas hit hard by the flooding."
But the same article noted that Mayor Nagin had declared the Superdome to be a "refuge of last resort, that no food, water, or supplies would be provided. Residents who evacuated to the Superdome were warned to bring their own supplies." In this statement, the Mayor was correct under the plan described by the State, but General Landreneau appeared to be unaware of the terms of the plan, and what this meant to the people there.
This is a worrisome indicator that Landreneau underestimated the danger from Katrina, and directed his force to keep people from entering New Orleans, rather than focusing on getting people out, or making sure the people at shelters had needed supplies. This attitude also explains the reports from Major Garrett that State DHS forces commanded by Landreneau had prevented the Red Cross and Salvation Army from delivering food and water to the Superdome.
Garret said the Red Cross quoted a State official as saying to them "look, we do not want to create a magnet for more people to come to the Superdome or the convention center. We want to get them out." In plain English, Landreneau failed to tell his own agency that the Superdome, originally designated a Shelter of Last Resort, which by design do not receive food or water, had been redesignated as a major relief shelter. Small wonder; Landreneau never did any of the paperwork necessary to order that change, and did not even announce to his own deputies the change in plan.
Landreneau was mentioned in an August 31 report about a controversy around who would use a new planned airport. Landreneau's reluctance to make a clear decision, as highlighted in the article, indicates an indecision which may have played a role in the disaster response.
A Boston Globe report on August 30 noted that there was a great deal of confusion in the State response, even to the details about numbers of victims and locations of focus. Landreneau appeared to be one of many chiefs, rather than the man in charge.
Although the Shreveport Times reports that Landreneau was keeping Governor Blanco informed of events and needs, it appears that Blanco was not being told about the numbers in shelters without food or water, and was not told about the need to ask for additional National Guard support.
While it seems peculiar that Governor Blanco would not understand that her Declaration of a State of Emergency did not satisfy the conditions under Posse Comitatus necessary for out-of-state forces to assist in forceful restoration of order, it should be noted that General Landreneau never explained the requirement to her; if a State Executives should understand this, certainly her military adjutant in charge of disaster response should suggest the action. But General Landreneau never briefed Governor Blanco on Posse Comitatus, or suggested the request for federal troops in support of the LNG.
On August 30, even as the world at large began to know about the terrible conditions in the Superdome, Landreneau continued to instruct rescuers to move victims there.
"Rescue teams were still picking up people throughout the city Tuesday, leaving them on island-like highway overpasses and on a levee to wait to be moved again. Eventually, they will end up in the Superdome, where 15,000 to 20,000 people have taken already refuge, said Louisiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau."
Mayor Nagin depended on Landreneau to move and feed and protect the citizens of New Orleans. That did not happen. Nagin depended on Landreneau to give people good answers on how to find shelter and food. That did not happen. Governor Blanco depended on Landreneau to keep her informed on the next step to restore order and help the victims. That did not happen. Blanco depended on Landreneau to coordinate with the Red Cross and Salvation Army to get people what they needed. That did not happen. President Bush depended on Landreneau to do his job. That did not happen.
Landreneau should be fired, demoted, then arrested.
Over on Polipundit, I promised to name the culprit most responsible for the absolute Cluster-Fudge that was New Orleans between August 29th and September 1st. For four days, it seemed that no one was in charge, knew what to do, or cared about the more than a million people affected by Hurricane Katrina in the Southeast Louisiana area. To be sure, there were conditions no one could control, and also there is no question that certain individuals set themselves apart, but in dishonor and personal disgrace. But when one starts to sift the facts out, one man becomes clearly involved in every major blunder, every key decision involving New Orleans, and one man who had contact with every decision-maker, in many cases the man expected to tell them the conditions, needs, and options. That man did so horrible a job, that in any just universe he will face criminal charges. That man is Major General Bennett C. Landreneau, who is also the head of Louisiana's Department of Homeland Security.
As many people know, the City of New Orleans did have a hurricane preparation and response plan. The plan is aligned with the official "State of Louisiana Emergency Operations Plan, Supplement 1A".
Unfortunately, the City of New Orleans did not train for it, nor did they follow its provisions when the event happened. But that part can be discussed in another article.
The plans specified state and local actions which simply did not happen, including (City and State use identical plan references)
D1b. The Governor will, after declaring a State of Emergency, "Issue supplemental declarations and orders", to address specific needs not covered by the initial declaration. That is the part where the Governor needed to ask for troops from out-of-state, rather than assume they would just show up.
D1c. "Authorize and direct the use of State government personnel and other resources to deal with the emergency."
D1d. "Authorize and direct the authorities of non-risk parishes to coordinate the opening and operation of shelters with DSS in conjunction with ARC, and to lend all possible assistance to the evacuation and shelter effort." (DSS is the Department of Social Services, ARC is American Red Cross)
D1e. "Request federal government assistance as needed."
The Adjutant General/Director of the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness (LOEP) is charged in section D2 with the coordination of the Governor's actions and declarations, and to "keep the Governor and the Legislature informed of progress and problems in dealing with the disaster."
The Louisiana State Police are charged in D3. to "maintain order on State highways and expedite the flow of traffic from the risk to the host parishes"
The Department of Social Services is charged in D5 to "coordinate the opening of shelters in conjunction with the ARC for evacuees from the risk area."
The Department of Health and Hospitals is charged in D6 to "coordinate the evacuation and sheltering of people who have special medical and health needs".
The New Orleans plan, in section E, says that "direction and control is specified in the State Emergency Operations Plan".
That puts us back the matter of coordination. What happens, essentially, is that the Adjutant General of Louisiana‘s Department of Homeland Security (not to be confused with the U.S. DHS) is responsible for telling the Governor what ia happening and what needs to be done next. The same man is responsible for coordinating state agencies with the parishes which need help, in this case most critically with Mayor Nagin. That same man is also responsible for telling FEMA where the people fleeing the storm are going, and making sure they get the water, food, medicine, and other supplies they need. As we have seen in the actual event, none of those things were done, and they all depended on General Landreneau. It is clear from the evidence, that the man had no idea what he was doing, and lacked the sense to get out of the way until President replaced him with General Honore on Wednesday. The timeline shows that once Landreneau was replaced, the system began to work.
FEMA coordinates the actions of twenty-seven federal agencies, as explained briefly here, and in depth here.
In Section III, Roles and Responsibilities (pdf page 28 of 426), FEMA explains that the Federal government may coordinate multiple agencies under the provisions of the Stafford Act. FEMA, as its name suggests, is a Manager of Agencies, responsible for coordination, and totally dependent on information from and cooperation with local and state agencies.
The Stafford Act, in essence, manages relief resources supplied by the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, the Mennonite Disaster Service, "and any other relief or disaster assistance organizations" operating to assist in relief efforts. That is, FEMA's first actions are to coordinate the supplies and aid being brought in by the extant relief groups. FEMA does not establish shelters or perform evacuations, does not command police or armed forces, and must depend on the information and cooperation received from the stateÂ’s authorized commander for disaster relief. In other states, FEMA was relatively swift and effective, but in Louisiana, FEMA was obstructed by the LDHS.
Now, about General Landreneau. The first words from the General were in an August 29th press conference, where he assured the press that 200 boats were positioned to go in to rescue stranded victims, "as soon as the winds decrease". In the actual fact, far fewer boats weravailablele, and they went out much later.
On that same date, Landreneau downplayed the initial effects of Katrina, as his agency suggested the hurricane had already done its worst. "Officials originally were concerned that hurricane protection levees would be topped, but Katrina's drift to the east apparently kept that from occurring" said an article interviewing the general.
That same article quoted Landreneau as saying "there was a report that there was a breech or overtopping of a levee on the 17th Street Canal, which divides Jefferson and Orleans. Some areas had been flooded, perhaps in the Lakeview section of New Orleans." Landreneau did not understand the importance of his own information.
Confusion was evident sometimes in the very same statement. In one place, "Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau, adjutant general for the Louisiana National Guard, said that the number of people taking shelter in the Superdome has risen to around 15,000 to 20,000 as search and rescue teams bring more people to the Superdome from areas hit hard by the flooding."
But the same article noted that Mayor Nagin had declared the Superdome to be a "refuge of last resort, that no food, water, or supplies would be provided. Residents who evacuated to the Superdome were warned to bring their own supplies." In this statement, the Mayor was correct under the plan described by the State, but General Landreneau appeared to be unaware of the terms of the plan, and what this meant to the people there.
This is a worrisome indicator that Landreneau underestimated the danger from Katrina, and directed his force to keep people from entering New Orleans, rather than focusing on getting people out, or making sure the people at shelters had needed supplies. This attitude also explains the reports from Major Garrett that State DHS forces commanded by Landreneau had prevented the Red Cross and Salvation Army from delivering food and water to the Superdome.
Garret said the Red Cross quoted a State official as saying to them "look, we do not want to create a magnet for more people to come to the Superdome or the convention center. We want to get them out." In plain English, Landreneau failed to tell his own agency that the Superdome, originally designated a Shelter of Last Resort, which by design do not receive food or water, had been redesignated as a major relief shelter. Small wonder; Landreneau never did any of the paperwork necessary to order that change, and did not even announce to his own deputies the change in plan.
Landreneau was mentioned in an August 31 report about a controversy around who would use a new planned airport. Landreneau's reluctance to make a clear decision, as highlighted in the article, indicates an indecision which may have played a role in the disaster response.
A Boston Globe report on August 30 noted that there was a great deal of confusion in the State response, even to the details about numbers of victims and locations of focus. Landreneau appeared to be one of many chiefs, rather than the man in charge.
Although the Shreveport Times reports that Landreneau was keeping Governor Blanco informed of events and needs, it appears that Blanco was not being told about the numbers in shelters without food or water, and was not told about the need to ask for additional National Guard support.
While it seems peculiar that Governor Blanco would not understand that her Declaration of a State of Emergency did not satisfy the conditions under Posse Comitatus necessary for out-of-state forces to assist in forceful restoration of order, it should be noted that General Landreneau never explained the requirement to her; if a State Executives should understand this, certainly her military adjutant in charge of disaster response should suggest the action. But General Landreneau never briefed Governor Blanco on Posse Comitatus, or suggested the request for federal troops in support of the LNG.
On August 30, even as the world at large began to know about the terrible conditions in the Superdome, Landreneau continued to instruct rescuers to move victims there.
"Rescue teams were still picking up people throughout the city Tuesday, leaving them on island-like highway overpasses and on a levee to wait to be moved again. Eventually, they will end up in the Superdome, where 15,000 to 20,000 people have taken already refuge, said Louisiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Bennett C. Landreneau."
Mayor Nagin depended on Landreneau to move and feed and protect the citizens of New Orleans. That did not happen. Nagin depended on Landreneau to give people good answers on how to find shelter and food. That did not happen. Governor Blanco depended on Landreneau to keep her informed on the next step to restore order and help the victims. That did not happen. Blanco depended on Landreneau to coordinate with the Red Cross and Salvation Army to get people what they needed. That did not happen. President Bush depended on Landreneau to do his job. That did not happen.
Landreneau should be fired, demoted, then arrested.
Monday, September 12, 2005
I Accuse...
????????
OK, the rescue efforts are largely successful, the death toll appears to be significantly below the 10,000 pitched by Mayor Nagin, and since the Liberals have had their predictable flurry of attempts to pin yet another act of Nature on President Bush, it seems to me that we have finally reached the point where we can start talking about who bears the bulk of the responsibility for this disaster in New Orleans.
Bearing in mind, as always, that we are talking about an unforeseen natural disaster.
Fortunately, there has ben a great deal of information presented on the timeline and responsibilities. And in reading those documents, I have found a candidate who appears far more culpable than anyone else. Here are some hints:
[] It's not President Bush
[] It's not anyone named Clinton
[] It's not FEMA Director Michael Brown
[] It's not Louisiana Governor "Quick Decision" Blanco
[] It's not even Mayor "Calm Under Pressure" Nagin
The last two, especially, have their own responsibilities to be sure, but I found someone whose duties, as specified in the stautes in place when Katrina made landfall, makes their burden the heaviest.
I wonder who else might know the person I mean?
More to come...
OK, the rescue efforts are largely successful, the death toll appears to be significantly below the 10,000 pitched by Mayor Nagin, and since the Liberals have had their predictable flurry of attempts to pin yet another act of Nature on President Bush, it seems to me that we have finally reached the point where we can start talking about who bears the bulk of the responsibility for this disaster in New Orleans.
Bearing in mind, as always, that we are talking about an unforeseen natural disaster.
Fortunately, there has ben a great deal of information presented on the timeline and responsibilities. And in reading those documents, I have found a candidate who appears far more culpable than anyone else. Here are some hints:
[] It's not President Bush
[] It's not anyone named Clinton
[] It's not FEMA Director Michael Brown
[] It's not Louisiana Governor "Quick Decision" Blanco
[] It's not even Mayor "Calm Under Pressure" Nagin
The last two, especially, have their own responsibilities to be sure, but I found someone whose duties, as specified in the stautes in place when Katrina made landfall, makes their burden the heaviest.
I wonder who else might know the person I mean?
More to come...
Sunday, September 11, 2005
Renewal
\\*// \\*//
On September 11, 2001, the Democrats were still pushing the claim that George W. Bush was not really President by right, and would not accomplish anything of significance in his office. This, even though the Democrats had tried to deny the votes of thousands of U.S. servicemen, and had attempted to subvert the Constitutions of Florida and the United States in opposing the results of the election.
RINO Jim Jeffords (Undecided) deserted the GOP in (vain) hopes of attracting Democrat support for his bills and ambition, throwing control of the U.S. Senate back to the Left.
The government of China continued to press a political advantage caused by its interception of a U.S. Navy plane over International waters in the early part of the year.
The bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, like the bombings of two U.S. Embassies, had received little overt official attention and no apparent response.
Then less than two dozen men hijacked four commercial airliners and killed around three thousand Americans, for the offense of being Americans.
The mastermind, Osama bin Laden, is either dead on continuing a multi-year campaign to discover the merits of living in caves throughout the Middle East, hoping his life won’t end in a well-deserved condemnation, especially now that six separate Muslim Imams have issued fatwas justifying his death as an apostate.
Al Qaeda has gone from an organization capable of attacking military units and changing the policies of governments, to a group unable to coordinate attacks beyond the level of ordinary gangs.
The Taliban has been thrown out of control in Afghanistan, and most of their deadership is dead, and most of the survivors are in prison.
Saddam Hussein has been deposed, found hiding in a hole, arrested, arraigned, and has confessed to the murder or thousands of innocents.
The Baath party has ceased to exist in Iraq.
Afghanistan and Iraq have held free elections.
On the encouragement from President Bush, and with mobs holding signs and banners with his name and picture, crowds of Lebanese have shamed Syrian troops into leaving Lebanon.
In fear of an Operation Libya Freedom, Moamar Qaddafi has renounced his WMD programs and promised to respect the border with Chad.
The Democrats have lost seats in both houses of Congress ever since Bush took office.
Thousands of Americans died on September 11. But not in vain. They are remembered, and the memory of their loss has fed the birth of new hope in countless places.
On September 11, 2001, the Democrats were still pushing the claim that George W. Bush was not really President by right, and would not accomplish anything of significance in his office. This, even though the Democrats had tried to deny the votes of thousands of U.S. servicemen, and had attempted to subvert the Constitutions of Florida and the United States in opposing the results of the election.
RINO Jim Jeffords (Undecided) deserted the GOP in (vain) hopes of attracting Democrat support for his bills and ambition, throwing control of the U.S. Senate back to the Left.
The government of China continued to press a political advantage caused by its interception of a U.S. Navy plane over International waters in the early part of the year.
The bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, like the bombings of two U.S. Embassies, had received little overt official attention and no apparent response.
Then less than two dozen men hijacked four commercial airliners and killed around three thousand Americans, for the offense of being Americans.
The mastermind, Osama bin Laden, is either dead on continuing a multi-year campaign to discover the merits of living in caves throughout the Middle East, hoping his life won’t end in a well-deserved condemnation, especially now that six separate Muslim Imams have issued fatwas justifying his death as an apostate.
Al Qaeda has gone from an organization capable of attacking military units and changing the policies of governments, to a group unable to coordinate attacks beyond the level of ordinary gangs.
The Taliban has been thrown out of control in Afghanistan, and most of their deadership is dead, and most of the survivors are in prison.
Saddam Hussein has been deposed, found hiding in a hole, arrested, arraigned, and has confessed to the murder or thousands of innocents.
The Baath party has ceased to exist in Iraq.
Afghanistan and Iraq have held free elections.
On the encouragement from President Bush, and with mobs holding signs and banners with his name and picture, crowds of Lebanese have shamed Syrian troops into leaving Lebanon.
In fear of an Operation Libya Freedom, Moamar Qaddafi has renounced his WMD programs and promised to respect the border with Chad.
The Democrats have lost seats in both houses of Congress ever since Bush took office.
Thousands of Americans died on September 11. But not in vain. They are remembered, and the memory of their loss has fed the birth of new hope in countless places.
Walk Down Another Road
*-*-*-*-*
What if Al Gore had won in 2000? Looking at the actual events since that election, and changing things not very much at all from the actual events, here’s how the world might have run:
2001
January 6 - The U.S. Congress, presided over by Vice President Al Gore as President of the Senate, certifies Gore’s controversial Electoral College victory, and thus as the winner of 2000 presidential election.
January 11 - The Federal Trade Commission approves the merger of AOL and Time Warner to form AOL Time Warner.
January 23-25 - UN war crimes prosecutor Del Ponte demands that Serbia hand over Slobodan Milošević.
February 9 - American submarine USS Greeneville accidentally strikes and sinks Japanese fishing vessel Ehime-Maru. President Gore personally apologizes and promises US reparations.
February 19 - A Oklahoma City bombing museum is dedicated at the Oklahoma City National Memorial. President Gore says America must clean its own house before looking to judge other nations about terrorism.
February 20 - FBI agent Robert Hanssen is arrested and charged with spying for Russia for 15 years.
April 1 - An EP-3E American spyplane collides with a Chinese fighter jet and is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Gore apologizes to the PRC and orders the U.S. Navy to pay half of a promised $75 Million penalty to the widow of Chinese pilot, Wang Wei. Gore also forbids US flights within 50 miles of the China coast without express exception. The government of Taiwan protests the action.
June 5 - Senator Jim Jeffords leaves the Republican party, an act which changes control of the United States Senate from the Republican party to the Democratic party
August 2 – Frank Lautenberg confirmed as the new FBI director.
September 6 - United States v. Microsoft: The United States Justice Department announces that it was adding additional charges, and will continue to seek harsh antitrust penalties.
September 11 - Around 3,000 killed in the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and rural Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
September 17 - The New York Stock Exchange reopens following the terrorist attacks in New York.
September 18 - The 2001 anthrax attacks commence as anthrax letters are mailed from Princeton, New Jersey to ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, the New York Post, and the National Enquirer.
October 4 - First case of anthrax in the US (attack) is announced by federal officials. President Gore orders the USPS shut down “until we can restore confidence in the mail.” The Dow plunges 600 points in one day on the news.
October 5 – Bill Clinton is appointed to be the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
November 12 - In New York City, American Airlines Flight 587 crashes minutes after takeoff from John F. Kennedy International Airport, killing all 260 on-board. The FAA, reportedly on orders from the White House, suspends all civilian international flights for ten days.
November 12 – Terrorists bomb the U.S. Embassy in Berlin. President Gore is outraged, but orders no retaliation.
November 13 –President Gore submits the Islam Civil Rights Bill to Congress, demanding special protection for Muslims in the United States against “the rising threat of hate crimes”.
December 2 – Dynegy offers to buy out Enron for $5.6 Billion.
December 13 – President Gore announces he is sending a delegate to sign the Kyoto Emissions Treaty in Kobe, Japan.
December 22 - A Paris-Miami flight is destroyed in mid-air by a bomb carried aboard by a terrorist, later identified as Richard Reid.
December 27 - The People's Republic of China is granted permanent normal trade status with the United States.
2002
January 9 - The Dynegy/Enron deal falls through. Enron announces it has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. The United States Department of Justice announces it is going to pursue a criminal investigation of Enron.
January 16 – The Washington Times reveals that the White House was involved in negotiations between Dynegy and Enron, and pushed hard to make the deal go through.
January 16 - The UN Security Council unanimously establishes an arms embargo and the freezing of assets of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida, and the Taliban.
January 22 - AOL Time Warner brings a federal suit against Microsoft seeking damages. Kmart Corp becomes the largest retailer in American history to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
March 1 – China invades Pakistan, “for security of the people”. President Gore has no comment. Israel breaks relations with China
March 19 – China invades Afghanistan. France says it regrets the action. PM Tony Blair warns that NATO regards the action with “grave concern”.
May 12 - Former President Jimmy Carter arrives in Cuba for a five-day visit with Fidel Castro becoming the first President of the United States, in or out of office, to visit the island since Castro's 1959 revolution. President Gore jokes “I wish I could be there with you”
July 14 - During Bastille Day celebrations, Jacques Chirac is assassinated; his murderers appear to be Arab, but are not immediately identified.
July 21 - Telecommunications giant WorldCom files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest such filing in United States history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls below 6,000. The Fed warns that the recession is becoming steeper.
September 12 – An unconfirmed report links the Gore Administration with the Enron scandal. The Gore Admnistration denies the reports, which are finding attention on the web and in the New York Times.
September 22 - The German federal election leaves Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, his Social Democrats and the Greens in power
October 2 – Terrorists bomb the family residence in Riyadh, Suadi Arabia.
October 12 - Bali bombing: Terrorists detonate massive bombs in two nightclubs in Kuta, Bali, killing 202 and injuring over 300.
October 24 - The Beltway snipers are arrested. President Gore demands stronger gun control laws. The Gore Administration repeatedly refuses to discuss the growing Enron scandal, now gaining interest in the mainstream press.
November 5 - U.S. Elections: The Republican Party maintains control of the House of Representatives and regains control of the Senate by a wide margin. The House is now 75% Republican, and 58 seats in the Senate now belong to the GOP. The Dow rallies, at 5,300 points.
November 8 - Iraq conducts manuevers, shows previously unknown troop numbers and arms. Questions rise about how and where Iraq gained these arms. China warns of a Middle East crisis.
November 21 - NATO Summit in Prague - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia invited to become NATO members.
November 25 - President Gore signs the Homeland Savings Act into law, scaling down existing military forces and promising to “end this insane arms race”.
2003
January 30 -The leaders of Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, and the Czech Republic release a statement, the letter of the eight, demonstrating concern of Iraq’s intentions in the Middle East.
January 30 - The Turkish parliment signs a “working agreement” with China for cooperative military exercises.
March 12 - WHO issues a global alert on SARS.
March 15 - Hu Jintao becomes president of the People's Republic of China, replacing Jiang Zemin. President Gore immediately places a congratulatory call to the new president.
March 19 – For the third time in American History, the House of Representatives impeaches a President. President Gore is impeached for alleged personal involvement in Obstruction of Justice in the Enron Scandal.
May 12 – The Senate trial of President Gore begins.
May 17 – For the first time in American History, a sitting President of the United States is convicted in an Impeachment trial, and is dismissed from office. Former Vice President Joe Lieberman is sworn in as President, immediately afterwhich Chief Justice Rehquist resigns his seat on the U.S. Supreme Court in protest of Gore’s conviction. President Lieberman nominates Hillary Clinton to become Vice President.. Despite rancorous hearings, Clinton is confirmed as Vice President.
October 7 - 2003 California recall: Voters recall Governor Gray Davis from office and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger to succeed him.
October 15 - China launches Shenzhou 5, their first manned space mission.
November 15 - Two car bombs explode simultaneously in Istanbul, Turkey targeting two synagogues, killing at least 25 people and wounding more than 300; Al-Qaida claims responsibility.
December 26 - A massive earthquake devastates southeastern Iran. Over 40,000 people are reported to have been killed in the city of Bam.
December 28 – Iraq invades Iran. China mobilizes troops.
2004
February 10 - The French National Assembly votes to pass a law banning religious items and clothing from schools.
February 12 - Same sex marriage in the United States: The City and County of San Francisco begins issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples as an act of civil disobedience. President Lieberman applauds the ruling.
February 20 – Iraq seizes Teheran. The Federation of Arab States (FAS) is announced, uniting Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon under Baath control.
March 2 – George W. Bush effectively clinches the U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.
March 17 - Organized violence breaks out over two days in Kosovo. Nineteen people are killed, 139 Serbian homes are burned, schools and businesses are vandalized, and over 30 orthodox monasteries and churches are burned and destroyed. President Lieberman says he “deplores the violence”, but orders no retaliation.
March 29 - Largest expansion of NATO to date, allowing Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia into the organization.
April 17 - Israeli invades Lebanon. In a surprise, China commends the action, and warns Iraq against “imperialist ambitions”.
June 5 - Former President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, dies at age 93.
August 3 - Statue of Liberty reopens after security improvements.
August 6 - A United Nations report that blames the government of Sudan for crimes against humanity in Darfur is released.
August 21 – terrorist kill 43 athletes and coaches at the Olympics in Athens, in a bombing attack.
September 1 - Chechen rebels take between 1,000 and 1,500 people hostage, mostly children, in a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. The hostage-takers demand the release of Chechen rebels imprisoned in neighbouring Ingushetia and the independence of Chechnya from Russia.
September 2 - The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 1559 calling for the removal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. This measure is largely aimed at Syrian troops.
September 3 - Russian forces end the siege at a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. At least 335 people (among which at least 32 of the approximately 40 hostage-takers) have been killed and at least 700 people have been injured.
November 2 - U.S. presidential election: Republican George W. Bush defeats President Joe Lieberman. Republicans make more gains in the House and Senate, controlling nearly 82% of the House, and 74% of the Senate.
December 8 - The biggest Chinese PC producer Lenovo announces its plan to purchase IBM's global PC business, making it the third largest world PC maker after Dell and Hewlett-Packard.
December 11 - Tests show that Ukrainian opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with a large dose of dioxin.
December 13 - Software giants Oracle Corporation and PeopleSoft to merge in a $10.3 billion deal, creating the second largest maker of business applications software.
2005
January 20 - George W. Bush is inaugurated in Washington D.C. 45th President of the United States.
Some twists, but in the end, not that different. It’s not as though the events make the man, or that Americans can be fooled forever.
What if Al Gore had won in 2000? Looking at the actual events since that election, and changing things not very much at all from the actual events, here’s how the world might have run:
2001
January 6 - The U.S. Congress, presided over by Vice President Al Gore as President of the Senate, certifies Gore’s controversial Electoral College victory, and thus as the winner of 2000 presidential election.
January 11 - The Federal Trade Commission approves the merger of AOL and Time Warner to form AOL Time Warner.
January 23-25 - UN war crimes prosecutor Del Ponte demands that Serbia hand over Slobodan Milošević.
February 9 - American submarine USS Greeneville accidentally strikes and sinks Japanese fishing vessel Ehime-Maru. President Gore personally apologizes and promises US reparations.
February 19 - A Oklahoma City bombing museum is dedicated at the Oklahoma City National Memorial. President Gore says America must clean its own house before looking to judge other nations about terrorism.
February 20 - FBI agent Robert Hanssen is arrested and charged with spying for Russia for 15 years.
April 1 - An EP-3E American spyplane collides with a Chinese fighter jet and is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Gore apologizes to the PRC and orders the U.S. Navy to pay half of a promised $75 Million penalty to the widow of Chinese pilot, Wang Wei. Gore also forbids US flights within 50 miles of the China coast without express exception. The government of Taiwan protests the action.
June 5 - Senator Jim Jeffords leaves the Republican party, an act which changes control of the United States Senate from the Republican party to the Democratic party
August 2 – Frank Lautenberg confirmed as the new FBI director.
September 6 - United States v. Microsoft: The United States Justice Department announces that it was adding additional charges, and will continue to seek harsh antitrust penalties.
September 11 - Around 3,000 killed in the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, The Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, and rural Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
September 17 - The New York Stock Exchange reopens following the terrorist attacks in New York.
September 18 - The 2001 anthrax attacks commence as anthrax letters are mailed from Princeton, New Jersey to ABC News, CBS News, NBC News, the New York Post, and the National Enquirer.
October 4 - First case of anthrax in the US (attack) is announced by federal officials. President Gore orders the USPS shut down “until we can restore confidence in the mail.” The Dow plunges 600 points in one day on the news.
October 5 – Bill Clinton is appointed to be the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
November 12 - In New York City, American Airlines Flight 587 crashes minutes after takeoff from John F. Kennedy International Airport, killing all 260 on-board. The FAA, reportedly on orders from the White House, suspends all civilian international flights for ten days.
November 12 – Terrorists bomb the U.S. Embassy in Berlin. President Gore is outraged, but orders no retaliation.
November 13 –President Gore submits the Islam Civil Rights Bill to Congress, demanding special protection for Muslims in the United States against “the rising threat of hate crimes”.
December 2 – Dynegy offers to buy out Enron for $5.6 Billion.
December 13 – President Gore announces he is sending a delegate to sign the Kyoto Emissions Treaty in Kobe, Japan.
December 22 - A Paris-Miami flight is destroyed in mid-air by a bomb carried aboard by a terrorist, later identified as Richard Reid.
December 27 - The People's Republic of China is granted permanent normal trade status with the United States.
2002
January 9 - The Dynegy/Enron deal falls through. Enron announces it has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. The United States Department of Justice announces it is going to pursue a criminal investigation of Enron.
January 16 – The Washington Times reveals that the White House was involved in negotiations between Dynegy and Enron, and pushed hard to make the deal go through.
January 16 - The UN Security Council unanimously establishes an arms embargo and the freezing of assets of Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida, and the Taliban.
January 22 - AOL Time Warner brings a federal suit against Microsoft seeking damages. Kmart Corp becomes the largest retailer in American history to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
March 1 – China invades Pakistan, “for security of the people”. President Gore has no comment. Israel breaks relations with China
March 19 – China invades Afghanistan. France says it regrets the action. PM Tony Blair warns that NATO regards the action with “grave concern”.
May 12 - Former President Jimmy Carter arrives in Cuba for a five-day visit with Fidel Castro becoming the first President of the United States, in or out of office, to visit the island since Castro's 1959 revolution. President Gore jokes “I wish I could be there with you”
July 14 - During Bastille Day celebrations, Jacques Chirac is assassinated; his murderers appear to be Arab, but are not immediately identified.
July 21 - Telecommunications giant WorldCom files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest such filing in United States history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls below 6,000. The Fed warns that the recession is becoming steeper.
September 12 – An unconfirmed report links the Gore Administration with the Enron scandal. The Gore Admnistration denies the reports, which are finding attention on the web and in the New York Times.
September 22 - The German federal election leaves Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, his Social Democrats and the Greens in power
October 2 – Terrorists bomb the family residence in Riyadh, Suadi Arabia.
October 12 - Bali bombing: Terrorists detonate massive bombs in two nightclubs in Kuta, Bali, killing 202 and injuring over 300.
October 24 - The Beltway snipers are arrested. President Gore demands stronger gun control laws. The Gore Administration repeatedly refuses to discuss the growing Enron scandal, now gaining interest in the mainstream press.
November 5 - U.S. Elections: The Republican Party maintains control of the House of Representatives and regains control of the Senate by a wide margin. The House is now 75% Republican, and 58 seats in the Senate now belong to the GOP. The Dow rallies, at 5,300 points.
November 8 - Iraq conducts manuevers, shows previously unknown troop numbers and arms. Questions rise about how and where Iraq gained these arms. China warns of a Middle East crisis.
November 21 - NATO Summit in Prague - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia invited to become NATO members.
November 25 - President Gore signs the Homeland Savings Act into law, scaling down existing military forces and promising to “end this insane arms race”.
2003
January 30 -The leaders of Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark, and the Czech Republic release a statement, the letter of the eight, demonstrating concern of Iraq’s intentions in the Middle East.
January 30 - The Turkish parliment signs a “working agreement” with China for cooperative military exercises.
March 12 - WHO issues a global alert on SARS.
March 15 - Hu Jintao becomes president of the People's Republic of China, replacing Jiang Zemin. President Gore immediately places a congratulatory call to the new president.
March 19 – For the third time in American History, the House of Representatives impeaches a President. President Gore is impeached for alleged personal involvement in Obstruction of Justice in the Enron Scandal.
May 12 – The Senate trial of President Gore begins.
May 17 – For the first time in American History, a sitting President of the United States is convicted in an Impeachment trial, and is dismissed from office. Former Vice President Joe Lieberman is sworn in as President, immediately afterwhich Chief Justice Rehquist resigns his seat on the U.S. Supreme Court in protest of Gore’s conviction. President Lieberman nominates Hillary Clinton to become Vice President.. Despite rancorous hearings, Clinton is confirmed as Vice President.
October 7 - 2003 California recall: Voters recall Governor Gray Davis from office and elect Arnold Schwarzenegger to succeed him.
October 15 - China launches Shenzhou 5, their first manned space mission.
November 15 - Two car bombs explode simultaneously in Istanbul, Turkey targeting two synagogues, killing at least 25 people and wounding more than 300; Al-Qaida claims responsibility.
December 26 - A massive earthquake devastates southeastern Iran. Over 40,000 people are reported to have been killed in the city of Bam.
December 28 – Iraq invades Iran. China mobilizes troops.
2004
February 10 - The French National Assembly votes to pass a law banning religious items and clothing from schools.
February 12 - Same sex marriage in the United States: The City and County of San Francisco begins issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples as an act of civil disobedience. President Lieberman applauds the ruling.
February 20 – Iraq seizes Teheran. The Federation of Arab States (FAS) is announced, uniting Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon under Baath control.
March 2 – George W. Bush effectively clinches the U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.
March 17 - Organized violence breaks out over two days in Kosovo. Nineteen people are killed, 139 Serbian homes are burned, schools and businesses are vandalized, and over 30 orthodox monasteries and churches are burned and destroyed. President Lieberman says he “deplores the violence”, but orders no retaliation.
March 29 - Largest expansion of NATO to date, allowing Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia into the organization.
April 17 - Israeli invades Lebanon. In a surprise, China commends the action, and warns Iraq against “imperialist ambitions”.
June 5 - Former President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, dies at age 93.
August 3 - Statue of Liberty reopens after security improvements.
August 6 - A United Nations report that blames the government of Sudan for crimes against humanity in Darfur is released.
August 21 – terrorist kill 43 athletes and coaches at the Olympics in Athens, in a bombing attack.
September 1 - Chechen rebels take between 1,000 and 1,500 people hostage, mostly children, in a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. The hostage-takers demand the release of Chechen rebels imprisoned in neighbouring Ingushetia and the independence of Chechnya from Russia.
September 2 - The United Nations Security Council adopts Resolution 1559 calling for the removal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. This measure is largely aimed at Syrian troops.
September 3 - Russian forces end the siege at a school in Beslan, Northern Ossetia. At least 335 people (among which at least 32 of the approximately 40 hostage-takers) have been killed and at least 700 people have been injured.
November 2 - U.S. presidential election: Republican George W. Bush defeats President Joe Lieberman. Republicans make more gains in the House and Senate, controlling nearly 82% of the House, and 74% of the Senate.
December 8 - The biggest Chinese PC producer Lenovo announces its plan to purchase IBM's global PC business, making it the third largest world PC maker after Dell and Hewlett-Packard.
December 11 - Tests show that Ukrainian opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned with a large dose of dioxin.
December 13 - Software giants Oracle Corporation and PeopleSoft to merge in a $10.3 billion deal, creating the second largest maker of business applications software.
2005
January 20 - George W. Bush is inaugurated in Washington D.C. 45th President of the United States.
Some twists, but in the end, not that different. It’s not as though the events make the man, or that Americans can be fooled forever.
Saturday, September 10, 2005
Disaster Response - The Basics
++++++++++++++
As various chattering make-up jobs on television and radio express their opinion of the job done to help the victims of Katrina, it is sadly obvious that meny don't understand how things are meant to work. Many TV anchors do not understand even the basic points, so I will mention it briefly here.
Disasters, in terms of relief, have five stages:
[] Preparation and planning
[] Pre-positioning
[] First responders and evacuation
[] Survival aid
[] Restoration and rebuilding
The first stage is critical. Every group which means to help must plan for what they will do, in advance. The people staffed, their assignment and authority, the tools and supplies provided, all need to planned ahead of time. In the case of Katrina, the basic levels of planning were at the LOCAL, STATE, and FEDERAL level. All three levels had to work to be effective.
As for pre-positioning, in the case of Hurricane Katrina, the authorities understood that the weather would reduce mobility as soon as the storm hit, so supplies and personnel had to put in place ahead of the storm, during the critical window between alert of the storm and its initial impact.
The first responders have two main duties; get people away from danger, and perform life-saving tasks. This falls again on three levels - the LOCAl authorities, who have the most people on-scene at the start and who know the terrain and conditions best; the STATE authorities, who have better equipment and supplies; and the FEDERAL authorities, who have specialized equipment for critical situations, but who must be told by local and state authorities what is needed, and where.
Survival aid is set up at aid stations, and the critical issue here is coordination between the on-scene authorities and the groups bringing aid.
And finally, federal aid in disasters after the initial rescues is generally focused on financial and administrative aid, which is much different from the short-term material needs, which are generally addressed by the on-scene local and state authorities.
People will have different views of how each group did its job, but these simple categories help illustrate what went right, what went wrong, and why.
As various chattering make-up jobs on television and radio express their opinion of the job done to help the victims of Katrina, it is sadly obvious that meny don't understand how things are meant to work. Many TV anchors do not understand even the basic points, so I will mention it briefly here.
Disasters, in terms of relief, have five stages:
[] Preparation and planning
[] Pre-positioning
[] First responders and evacuation
[] Survival aid
[] Restoration and rebuilding
The first stage is critical. Every group which means to help must plan for what they will do, in advance. The people staffed, their assignment and authority, the tools and supplies provided, all need to planned ahead of time. In the case of Katrina, the basic levels of planning were at the LOCAL, STATE, and FEDERAL level. All three levels had to work to be effective.
As for pre-positioning, in the case of Hurricane Katrina, the authorities understood that the weather would reduce mobility as soon as the storm hit, so supplies and personnel had to put in place ahead of the storm, during the critical window between alert of the storm and its initial impact.
The first responders have two main duties; get people away from danger, and perform life-saving tasks. This falls again on three levels - the LOCAl authorities, who have the most people on-scene at the start and who know the terrain and conditions best; the STATE authorities, who have better equipment and supplies; and the FEDERAL authorities, who have specialized equipment for critical situations, but who must be told by local and state authorities what is needed, and where.
Survival aid is set up at aid stations, and the critical issue here is coordination between the on-scene authorities and the groups bringing aid.
And finally, federal aid in disasters after the initial rescues is generally focused on financial and administrative aid, which is much different from the short-term material needs, which are generally addressed by the on-scene local and state authorities.
People will have different views of how each group did its job, but these simple categories help illustrate what went right, what went wrong, and why.
Friday, September 09, 2005
Should Louisiana Re-District?
[x]
Reader Jimmy Nix had an intriguing question:
“It would appear that there are many elected officials that no longer represent many voters in Louisiana. It seems likely that those voters will stay in whatever state they spend the next several months or years. Should Louisiana look at redistricting next year? The political and demographic makeup of Louisiana has truly changed overnight.”
Speaking for myself, I’d say ‘no’ in the immediate future. In the first place, because so many of the victims are in flux right now, and there’s no telling where a lot of folks will end up settling down. Also, with so many Louisianans coming to Texas, can you imagine the games certain Democrats would play with trying to get Texas redistricted, as well?
Reader Jimmy Nix had an intriguing question:
“It would appear that there are many elected officials that no longer represent many voters in Louisiana. It seems likely that those voters will stay in whatever state they spend the next several months or years. Should Louisiana look at redistricting next year? The political and demographic makeup of Louisiana has truly changed overnight.”
Speaking for myself, I’d say ‘no’ in the immediate future. In the first place, because so many of the victims are in flux right now, and there’s no telling where a lot of folks will end up settling down. Also, with so many Louisianans coming to Texas, can you imagine the games certain Democrats would play with trying to get Texas redistricted, as well?
Thursday, September 08, 2005
The Blame Game, Again
000
If you can’t say something nice about someone, well the Washington Post may want you to do their polling.
“A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken last Friday illustrates the point vividly. Just 17 percent of Democrats said they approved of the way Bush was handling the Katrina crisis while 74 percent of Republicans said they approved. About two in three Republicans rated the federal government's response as good or excellent, while two in three Democrats rated it not so good or poor.”
What a shock, huh?
btw, notice the poll came out six days ago, long before Blanco and Nagin started letting slip the facts of the matter...
If you can’t say something nice about someone, well the Washington Post may want you to do their polling.
“A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken last Friday illustrates the point vividly. Just 17 percent of Democrats said they approved of the way Bush was handling the Katrina crisis while 74 percent of Republicans said they approved. About two in three Republicans rated the federal government's response as good or excellent, while two in three Democrats rated it not so good or poor.”
What a shock, huh?
btw, notice the poll came out six days ago, long before Blanco and Nagin started letting slip the facts of the matter...
Lookie Here
\\\\\\\\
Anybody who likes to look up stuff has to love the Meta-Search. But these days it can get tiresome, trying to find relevant commentary on a topic. Well, have I got some words for you:
Technorati
Feedster
IceRocket
BlogPulse
These and several others are vying to be, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, the “Google of Blogs”.
Technology is my friend.
Anybody who likes to look up stuff has to love the Meta-Search. But these days it can get tiresome, trying to find relevant commentary on a topic. Well, have I got some words for you:
Technorati
Feedster
IceRocket
BlogPulse
These and several others are vying to be, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, the “Google of Blogs”.
Technology is my friend.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
An Insensitive Thought
-*-*-*-*-
OK, I will say in advance this is not a sensitive thing to say right now, but it's rolling around in my head and I have to post it to get it off my mind:
New Orleans had a lot of mediums and fortune tellers and psychics. Wouldn't you think, if they knew their business, they'd have been the first people out of town?
I guess, like Mayor Nagin, they just had other things on their mind that weekend.
OK, I will say in advance this is not a sensitive thing to say right now, but it's rolling around in my head and I have to post it to get it off my mind:
New Orleans had a lot of mediums and fortune tellers and psychics. Wouldn't you think, if they knew their business, they'd have been the first people out of town?
I guess, like Mayor Nagin, they just had other things on their mind that weekend.
Just The Facts
\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/\~/
Readers may recall that I tried to put some perspective on Katrina with a timeline. A much better timeline, built on verifiable links, can be found here.
Rick Moran has done an outstanding job, and his evidence is absolutely compelling.
Readers may recall that I tried to put some perspective on Katrina with a timeline. A much better timeline, built on verifiable links, can be found here.
Rick Moran has done an outstanding job, and his evidence is absolutely compelling.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
The Rage of Fools
**********************
I’m tired, I admit it. The week past, with all the images of personal grief and loss has worn me out, and the finger-pointing by so many people, however predictable, has soured the flow of stories about giving and heroism I have heard from so many places. Thank God I live in Houston, where the evidence of kindness and hope is so profound, or I’d be screaming right now.
Which brings me to those catcalling malcontents. It occurs to me that they are, as usual, both missing a chance to rebuild some credibility, and missing the target they would like to stain with their bile. What I mean is, it is becoming clear that while it is puerile to point fingers at this stage, if one insists on doing so the available evidence indicates that President Bush and the Federal response was actually far swifter and appropriate than the actions taken on the State and Local levels. The people making all the noise could be working to call their own into accountability, but instead are chasing the President on nothing more than a paranoid fantasy.
And worse for the minions of name-calling, they have not realized that they have once again chosen the target which will do them the least good. Allowing for the moment the faint possibility that they can actually pin this on President Bush somehow (the private dream, I’m sure, of everyone at the CBS network), it won’t do them any good. President Bush, you see, is not running for office again, nor is Vice-President Cheney. No one from FEMA is running for Congress, the Senate, or the White House. So the sum effect of all this noise is like the poodle barking at the living room drapes in order to convince himself of his bravery. The other common factors are the bad odor and low standards of personal hygiene.
Ignore them. Give to the charities which best suit your ideals and look for the stories of hope and promise, but just ignore these fools, as you would any stupid animal with bad manners.
I’m tired, I admit it. The week past, with all the images of personal grief and loss has worn me out, and the finger-pointing by so many people, however predictable, has soured the flow of stories about giving and heroism I have heard from so many places. Thank God I live in Houston, where the evidence of kindness and hope is so profound, or I’d be screaming right now.
Which brings me to those catcalling malcontents. It occurs to me that they are, as usual, both missing a chance to rebuild some credibility, and missing the target they would like to stain with their bile. What I mean is, it is becoming clear that while it is puerile to point fingers at this stage, if one insists on doing so the available evidence indicates that President Bush and the Federal response was actually far swifter and appropriate than the actions taken on the State and Local levels. The people making all the noise could be working to call their own into accountability, but instead are chasing the President on nothing more than a paranoid fantasy.
And worse for the minions of name-calling, they have not realized that they have once again chosen the target which will do them the least good. Allowing for the moment the faint possibility that they can actually pin this on President Bush somehow (the private dream, I’m sure, of everyone at the CBS network), it won’t do them any good. President Bush, you see, is not running for office again, nor is Vice-President Cheney. No one from FEMA is running for Congress, the Senate, or the White House. So the sum effect of all this noise is like the poodle barking at the living room drapes in order to convince himself of his bravery. The other common factors are the bad odor and low standards of personal hygiene.
Ignore them. Give to the charities which best suit your ideals and look for the stories of hope and promise, but just ignore these fools, as you would any stupid animal with bad manners.
Monday, September 05, 2005
Labor Day - Thanks and Respect
[]-[]-[]
Today is Labor Day. Like most holidays, the way Labor Day is celebrated, has often missed the reason for the holiday. I would humbly submit that for 2005, it would be only fitting to take a moment to say thanks for the hard work of the following groups, without whose superlative efforts and dedication far more people would be far worse off, or simply dead:
The United States Coast Guard - Right about now, the Coasties deserve at least as much praise and respect as anyone else in the uniform of the United States. Thousands of people quite literally would be dead right now, except that the Coast Guard came for them.
The Doctors, Nurses, and Paramedics who stayed behind to help - Roughly 60 doctors, nurses, and paramedics from New Orleans area hospitals lost everything they had, just like everyone else, and they too want to know where their family is, but chose to stay behind to help the patients who arrived after others were evacuated. For six days now, these people have worked with little rest or food, supplies almost exhausted, for no pay beyond the knowledge that they were the difference between life and death for countless people.
The National Guard - The most food, the most road clearing, and the only way to restore order. If not for these men, the gangs would still be running New Orleans.
The Salvation Army - First on the scene, as always. Not a word of self-praise from them, as always. Well worth your donation, as always.
Hilton's Furniture and Gallery Furniture - now that clothing and food needs are being met, these guys have provided hundreds of real beds for victims to sleep in, and are collecting supplies for longer-term needs in Houston.
Countless churches, as always, have been collecting supplies, taking in people who need a place to stay, and even making plans to help victims rebuild their lives.
And of course, the American Red Cross, who is coordinating most of the relief, and helping families find each other across the nation.
If you see a representative from any of these groups, please consider taking a moment to stop and tell them you appreciate all they’ve done. And if you see anyone from a television station, please feel free to remind them that pointing fingers and spurring on spite and hatred is the last thing the Gulf Coast needs right now.
Today is Labor Day. Like most holidays, the way Labor Day is celebrated, has often missed the reason for the holiday. I would humbly submit that for 2005, it would be only fitting to take a moment to say thanks for the hard work of the following groups, without whose superlative efforts and dedication far more people would be far worse off, or simply dead:
The United States Coast Guard - Right about now, the Coasties deserve at least as much praise and respect as anyone else in the uniform of the United States. Thousands of people quite literally would be dead right now, except that the Coast Guard came for them.
The Doctors, Nurses, and Paramedics who stayed behind to help - Roughly 60 doctors, nurses, and paramedics from New Orleans area hospitals lost everything they had, just like everyone else, and they too want to know where their family is, but chose to stay behind to help the patients who arrived after others were evacuated. For six days now, these people have worked with little rest or food, supplies almost exhausted, for no pay beyond the knowledge that they were the difference between life and death for countless people.
The National Guard - The most food, the most road clearing, and the only way to restore order. If not for these men, the gangs would still be running New Orleans.
The Salvation Army - First on the scene, as always. Not a word of self-praise from them, as always. Well worth your donation, as always.
Hilton's Furniture and Gallery Furniture - now that clothing and food needs are being met, these guys have provided hundreds of real beds for victims to sleep in, and are collecting supplies for longer-term needs in Houston.
Countless churches, as always, have been collecting supplies, taking in people who need a place to stay, and even making plans to help victims rebuild their lives.
And of course, the American Red Cross, who is coordinating most of the relief, and helping families find each other across the nation.
If you see a representative from any of these groups, please consider taking a moment to stop and tell them you appreciate all they’ve done. And if you see anyone from a television station, please feel free to remind them that pointing fingers and spurring on spite and hatred is the last thing the Gulf Coast needs right now.
Sunday, September 04, 2005
Rebuilding
o-o-o-o-o
The question now comes down to what we do next. It will take a while to get to all the people in New Orleans, the rest of Louisiana, Mississippi, and the rest of the Gulf Coast hit so hard by the Hurricane, but the process is underway. Food and water and clothing are getting to people, and the distribution lines, though still crude, are getting the job done. The next step is getting long-time medical needs addressed. Texas has done a great job of addressing the needs of students, opening public schools to all the people fleeing Louisiana, and many colleges and universities across the country are accepting transfers from students at Tulane, LaSalle, and all the other Louisiana colleges and universities. The immediate needs of more than a million people hit by the devastation are being met.
The process moves on to what happens in the next half-year or so. Most of Katrina’s victims have not been able to sit down and consider what they want to do next, but the planning has to be in place. Fortunately, a number of corporations, churches, and groups experienced in long-term disaster relief have made preparations. Essentially, the people dislocated by the destruction will need jobs, transportation, and the structure of a routine; for many people, there is great emotional comfort in having things they can count on, including responsibility and duties, which enforce the personal sense of worth and identity. You are what you do.
The states of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana will rebuild. For all the destruction, the basic infrastructure of the states is in place and can be re-established. The greatest costs will be the roads, power grid, and coastal industries, like fishing and the ports. The city of New Orleans is another matter. It is well-understood that the city lies below sea level, and its position relative to Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf makes this a critical risk. Insurance companies have already expressed serious reservations about insuring any new construction or rebuilt homes and businesses in the city. Unless the federal government chooses to private special insurance, it is doubtful that businesses and homes can be rebuilt and operate in New Orleans to the scale of the city before. Even the construction of a seawall like the one protecting Galveston Texas would be insufficient for New Orleans, because of the elevation concerns.
There is also the risk of fraud. Disasters bring out the best and worst qualities in people, and this is also true in the matter of fraud. When a home is destroyed, it is sometimes difficult to confirm what personal property was lost. How much more difficult is it, to confirm the losses of an entire city? While most people would not try to manipulate the system to take money so badly needed by real victims, it’s historically true that fraud is a real element in disaster relief. Given the scale of this event, unique security measures will be necessary in addressing the needs of New Orleans’ citizens. There is, despite the best intentions of charities and generous donors, a limit to how much relief will be available.
I would not be surprised, personally, to see the victims of Katrina given two general options. Most will be encouraged to restart in the town where they have been relocated, meaning that the visitors to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and many other Texas cities will be likely to become citizens there. The option of returning to Louisiana will be there, but I expect that New Orleans will be, while rebuilt, much smaller in scale and much less centralized. The Corps of Engineers will have to examine the ground in the area, but it would be logical for new construction to be undertaken on ground with higher elevation and known to be stable, rather than trying to demolish the rubble in New Orleans, test the ground, reset everything from foundations up, and hope that the new buildings last. This has happened before, after all. In 1900, the city of Galveston Texas was a thriving center of commerce and culture. A Hurricane (no names were used for Hurricanes in 1900) estimated to be Category 4 in force, effectively destroyed the city, killing anywhere between eight and twelve thousand people (Census rolls were unclear, and many bodies had to be buried in mass graves or burned, to control the risk of disease. Like the New Orleans disaster, Galveston was isolated from contact, and so sending assistance was made impossible by the storm’s damage for a long time. In the end, the small town to Galveston’s north, Houston, was made the focus for rebuilding and relocation, and eventually became the far greater city. I could actually see the city of New Orleans out and out relocated about forty miles to the north of its old location, in a plan which would take more than ten years to happen, but which could capture the imagination and emotion of the state of Louisiana and the nation, a symbol of rebirth and a mix of old and new. The key would be the Port of New Orleans, which largely survived Katrina, and which would be the lifeblood of the newly built city, whether on the original land or in a new location with better stability.
But that’s just speculation, and will be driven by the feasibility of options yet to be confirmed. The rebuilding begins, as always, with examining and meeting long-term needs of the families. The Red Cross has begun to rejoin families, and to provide information on what has happened for victims to find out. As I mentioned above, job opportunities have been made available, and career counselors are preparing resources and building networks to help people not only find some job, but one fitted to their skills. The social assistance of churches and schools also helps the process, helping people to find a place of identity and acceptance, from which the sense of community grows.
The question now comes down to what we do next. It will take a while to get to all the people in New Orleans, the rest of Louisiana, Mississippi, and the rest of the Gulf Coast hit so hard by the Hurricane, but the process is underway. Food and water and clothing are getting to people, and the distribution lines, though still crude, are getting the job done. The next step is getting long-time medical needs addressed. Texas has done a great job of addressing the needs of students, opening public schools to all the people fleeing Louisiana, and many colleges and universities across the country are accepting transfers from students at Tulane, LaSalle, and all the other Louisiana colleges and universities. The immediate needs of more than a million people hit by the devastation are being met.
The process moves on to what happens in the next half-year or so. Most of Katrina’s victims have not been able to sit down and consider what they want to do next, but the planning has to be in place. Fortunately, a number of corporations, churches, and groups experienced in long-term disaster relief have made preparations. Essentially, the people dislocated by the destruction will need jobs, transportation, and the structure of a routine; for many people, there is great emotional comfort in having things they can count on, including responsibility and duties, which enforce the personal sense of worth and identity. You are what you do.
The states of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana will rebuild. For all the destruction, the basic infrastructure of the states is in place and can be re-established. The greatest costs will be the roads, power grid, and coastal industries, like fishing and the ports. The city of New Orleans is another matter. It is well-understood that the city lies below sea level, and its position relative to Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf makes this a critical risk. Insurance companies have already expressed serious reservations about insuring any new construction or rebuilt homes and businesses in the city. Unless the federal government chooses to private special insurance, it is doubtful that businesses and homes can be rebuilt and operate in New Orleans to the scale of the city before. Even the construction of a seawall like the one protecting Galveston Texas would be insufficient for New Orleans, because of the elevation concerns.
There is also the risk of fraud. Disasters bring out the best and worst qualities in people, and this is also true in the matter of fraud. When a home is destroyed, it is sometimes difficult to confirm what personal property was lost. How much more difficult is it, to confirm the losses of an entire city? While most people would not try to manipulate the system to take money so badly needed by real victims, it’s historically true that fraud is a real element in disaster relief. Given the scale of this event, unique security measures will be necessary in addressing the needs of New Orleans’ citizens. There is, despite the best intentions of charities and generous donors, a limit to how much relief will be available.
I would not be surprised, personally, to see the victims of Katrina given two general options. Most will be encouraged to restart in the town where they have been relocated, meaning that the visitors to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and many other Texas cities will be likely to become citizens there. The option of returning to Louisiana will be there, but I expect that New Orleans will be, while rebuilt, much smaller in scale and much less centralized. The Corps of Engineers will have to examine the ground in the area, but it would be logical for new construction to be undertaken on ground with higher elevation and known to be stable, rather than trying to demolish the rubble in New Orleans, test the ground, reset everything from foundations up, and hope that the new buildings last. This has happened before, after all. In 1900, the city of Galveston Texas was a thriving center of commerce and culture. A Hurricane (no names were used for Hurricanes in 1900) estimated to be Category 4 in force, effectively destroyed the city, killing anywhere between eight and twelve thousand people (Census rolls were unclear, and many bodies had to be buried in mass graves or burned, to control the risk of disease. Like the New Orleans disaster, Galveston was isolated from contact, and so sending assistance was made impossible by the storm’s damage for a long time. In the end, the small town to Galveston’s north, Houston, was made the focus for rebuilding and relocation, and eventually became the far greater city. I could actually see the city of New Orleans out and out relocated about forty miles to the north of its old location, in a plan which would take more than ten years to happen, but which could capture the imagination and emotion of the state of Louisiana and the nation, a symbol of rebirth and a mix of old and new. The key would be the Port of New Orleans, which largely survived Katrina, and which would be the lifeblood of the newly built city, whether on the original land or in a new location with better stability.
But that’s just speculation, and will be driven by the feasibility of options yet to be confirmed. The rebuilding begins, as always, with examining and meeting long-term needs of the families. The Red Cross has begun to rejoin families, and to provide information on what has happened for victims to find out. As I mentioned above, job opportunities have been made available, and career counselors are preparing resources and building networks to help people not only find some job, but one fitted to their skills. The social assistance of churches and schools also helps the process, helping people to find a place of identity and acceptance, from which the sense of community grows.
Saturday, September 03, 2005
The Virtue of Force
<><><>
The media is running all sorts of shows about Hurricane Katrina. Sensing that people are growing tired of reports that focus only on suffering, the MSM has begun the predictable blame game, beginning as always with an attempt to blame President Bush for every failing, whether federal, state, local, or meteorilogical. I note that countless stories of heroism, self-sacrifice and hope have been ignored by the networks. No one seems to have noticed the hundreds of resue missions runs this week by each and every Coast Guard crew, saving thousands of people who otherwise would still be stranded on their roofs, or worse. No one seems to have mentioned that the hospital staffs, after seeing their children and crtical-care patients evacuated to Houston and Dallas hospitals, themselves chose to stay and help the injured, working without relief or adequate supplies and equipment for days on end. No one seems to have paid attention to hundreds of Louisiana and Texas citizens who took it on themeslves to drive down the major roads with chainsaws, chains and other equipment needed to clear the roads of major debris, so National Guard troops and relief supplies could make it to the victims. There are Emmy-class stories here, stories which would uplift and encourage people, if the networks would just bother to see them.
There’s been a lot of complaining this week, from the victims and from a lot of what Michelle Malkin calls “armchair first-responders”. Polipundit readers with experience have tried to explain how successful the actual effort has been, but the facts are competing against an entrenched desire to pursue a story which drives the emotions, and the emotions chosen by the media to build on, are anger and envy. Others try to avoid dwelling on the negatives, but are overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the disaster. The first task, reaching people to get them out, was complicated by the destruction of bridges and roads, and the flooding of New Orleans by Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf wave brought in by the Hurricane. The resistance by gangs and criminals to assitance has also cost lives and brought even more misery on the victims. And the local authorities charged with maintaining order and practicing the emergency plans, have for the most part deserted their duties in favor of taking care of themselves. It’s no coincidence that when the National Guard brought in significant numbers of armed force, the relief finally began to go where it should.
A lot of attention has been focused on New Orleans this week, and given the number of victims there, that’s right. But people might consider that Mississippi got hit just as hard as Louisiana, and Biloxi as hard as New Orleans, but there has not been the looting, the violence, and the selfishness in Biloxi that we have seen in New Orleans. Granted, the flooding in New Orleans has made things very bad in sanitary terms, but the plain fact is, that Biloxi has done a great deal that we would all hope to see in our own towns, if such a disaster were to hit us. For all the attention given to it, New Orleans is the exception, not the rule. I might be wrong, but a friend reminded me this week that in Mississippi, regular people have guns. In New Orleans, only the police and criminals do. It’s a fact that the Left will never admit out loud, but there is a virtue to Force, when it’s properly used.
The media is running all sorts of shows about Hurricane Katrina. Sensing that people are growing tired of reports that focus only on suffering, the MSM has begun the predictable blame game, beginning as always with an attempt to blame President Bush for every failing, whether federal, state, local, or meteorilogical. I note that countless stories of heroism, self-sacrifice and hope have been ignored by the networks. No one seems to have noticed the hundreds of resue missions runs this week by each and every Coast Guard crew, saving thousands of people who otherwise would still be stranded on their roofs, or worse. No one seems to have mentioned that the hospital staffs, after seeing their children and crtical-care patients evacuated to Houston and Dallas hospitals, themselves chose to stay and help the injured, working without relief or adequate supplies and equipment for days on end. No one seems to have paid attention to hundreds of Louisiana and Texas citizens who took it on themeslves to drive down the major roads with chainsaws, chains and other equipment needed to clear the roads of major debris, so National Guard troops and relief supplies could make it to the victims. There are Emmy-class stories here, stories which would uplift and encourage people, if the networks would just bother to see them.
There’s been a lot of complaining this week, from the victims and from a lot of what Michelle Malkin calls “armchair first-responders”. Polipundit readers with experience have tried to explain how successful the actual effort has been, but the facts are competing against an entrenched desire to pursue a story which drives the emotions, and the emotions chosen by the media to build on, are anger and envy. Others try to avoid dwelling on the negatives, but are overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the disaster. The first task, reaching people to get them out, was complicated by the destruction of bridges and roads, and the flooding of New Orleans by Lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf wave brought in by the Hurricane. The resistance by gangs and criminals to assitance has also cost lives and brought even more misery on the victims. And the local authorities charged with maintaining order and practicing the emergency plans, have for the most part deserted their duties in favor of taking care of themselves. It’s no coincidence that when the National Guard brought in significant numbers of armed force, the relief finally began to go where it should.
A lot of attention has been focused on New Orleans this week, and given the number of victims there, that’s right. But people might consider that Mississippi got hit just as hard as Louisiana, and Biloxi as hard as New Orleans, but there has not been the looting, the violence, and the selfishness in Biloxi that we have seen in New Orleans. Granted, the flooding in New Orleans has made things very bad in sanitary terms, but the plain fact is, that Biloxi has done a great deal that we would all hope to see in our own towns, if such a disaster were to hit us. For all the attention given to it, New Orleans is the exception, not the rule. I might be wrong, but a friend reminded me this week that in Mississippi, regular people have guns. In New Orleans, only the police and criminals do. It’s a fact that the Left will never admit out loud, but there is a virtue to Force, when it’s properly used.
Friday, September 02, 2005
How It Happened
-----
No one likes to see people suffering, so it’s not surprising that along with people stepping up to send aid and coordinate workers, there are others who can do nothing but complain and spew bile. It happens every time there’s a disaster which claims lives, and everyone realizes this is big.
There’s a lot of attention on the relief efforts, so I won’t go into them here, except to ask everyone to give what they can, and to remember that everything matters, especially right now. At the company I work for, hundreds of employees have been allowed paid time off to help work at the Astrodome. They came back to tell stories of people who now have absolutely nothing, not even a change of clothing. Their property is gone, their homes are gone, their workplaces are gone, the banks and schools and churches they went to, all are gone. In many cases they are separated from family, with no way to know if their relatives are even living or dead. It has been a very long time, since the United States of America had to address such a national emergency, a true crisis.
The jackals are already out in force. The looters in New Orleans are proving that the dregs will rise up whenever they have the opportunity, stealing, even raping and murdering innocent. That is why we are sending 40,000 additional troops to New Orleans. The bitter partisans are also already sniping at the relief effort, doing nothing for the victims while standing in the way of the people trying to get the job done. That is why I am writing this article, in my own small way trying to answer reasonable questions and explain how things got to this point.
The first reasonable question for anyone to ask is, why was Katrina so different from other storms? That really comes down to timing, the course of the storm, the history of disaster management, and the scale of the whole thing. Most people forget that there is a sort of fatigue factor in Hurricane seasons. Katrina was the twelfth named storm of the season.
Tropical Storm Arlene started up June 8, but did little more than dump rain for a few days.
Tropical Storm Bret began June 28, and petered out over Southeast Mexico.
Tropical Storm Cindy began July 3, made landfall near New Orleans on July 5, and settled into a Tropical Depression over Mississippi on July 6.
Hurricane Dennis began July 4, reaching wind speeds of 150 mph, making it a Category 4 Hurricane. Ominously, the National Weather Service notes that Dennis is the earliest (in the season) Category 4 storm in the Caribbean on record. Twenty-four people died in the Hurricane, which ravaged Haiti and Cuba before smashing into Florida. Yet news reports at the time remarked that the damage and death toll was less than expected, setting an expectation which would prove dangerous later. Dennis dwindled out on July 12, indicating that a major storm could last more than a few days during this season.
Hurricane Emily began July 11, reaching wind speeds of 155 mph, a deadly Category 3 storm as it ravaged Venezuela and moving up to Category 4 as it headed through Jamaica. Emily killed two people as it moved along the Yucatan peninsula, and finally stalled over Mexico and Texas. Vicente Fox credits the low loss of life to early evacuation efforts along Mexico’s northern coast.
Tropical Storm Franklin began July21, but while it reached wind speeds of 70 mph, Franklin stayed away from land and died off the Northeast U.S. coast, well off-shore.
Tropical Storm Gert began July 23, making landfall over south Mexico on the 24th. The importance of Gert, was it was the record fifth named-storm in July.
Tropical Storm Harvey began August 3, dumped a lot of rain on the Bahamas, but did little else, as it headed out to the mid-Atlantic.
Hurricane Irene began August 4, reaching top wind speeds of 100 mph. Irene made a long trek from about 735 miles off the coast of Africa, all the way across the Atlantic to the Caribbean, alternately weakening and gaining strength as it approached. On August 14, Irene became a Hurricane but was already moving away from land. Irene fell apart over the cold north Atlantic waters as she moved away from Bermuda towards Nova Scotia.
And Tropical Storm Jose began August 22, dying less than a day later in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
So, because there were eleven storms in the Caribbean during 2005 before Katrina, there was a kind of fatigue, a 'been there, done that’ assumption. Also, since the three August storms before Katrina were less dangerous than expected, a false optimism prevailed.
Now, look at the biography of Katrina:
August 24: Tropical Storm Katrina forms from a Tropical Depression crated just one day earlier, gaining strength faster than most storms do.
August 25: Katrina kicked in the door to say hello to Florida, killing 3 and knocking out power to more than a million people. This, as a Category 1 Hurricane. Katrina swept out west to the Gulf of Mexico.
August 26: Media breathe a sigh of relief as Katrina appears to weaken slightly, and is expected to turn North and make landfall as a Tropical Storm over Florida’s Panhandle.
August 26, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced a shift in the projected path of Katrina. Now at risk are the States of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, and states upland from its path.
August 27: Against expectations, Katrina is upgraded to Category 3, and appears to be homing in on the Louisiana-Mississippi coastline. New Orleans is predicted to receive about eleven inches of rain from Katrina. The Mayor of New Orleans suggests a voluntary evacuation of the city, but the recommendation is largely ignored, according to the press. USA Today quotes Fred Wilson, who said “"The only dangerous hurricanes so far are the ones we've been drinking," President Bush also ordered a state of emergency for Louisiana in anticipation of the need for Federal assistance, and ordering FEMA to be prepared to assist.
August 28: Katrina reaches Category 5 strength, about 250 miles South of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with sustained wind speeds of 175 mph. The Mayor of New Orleans orders a mandatory evacuation of the city. Mississippi emergency authorities track the storm, but order no evacuations.
August 29, 630 AM: Katrina made landfall in Plaquemines Parish Louisiana, just South of Buras, as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. A wall of water approximately 20 feet high crushes the Gulf Coast along a line more than two hundred miles broad.
August 30: Katrina weakens to a Tropical Depression near Clarksville, Tennessee.
USA Today published an interesting story, noting that New Orleans has been hit many times by major storms. In 1998, New Orleans was ordered evacuated, and the Superdome was used to house refugees, just as it was this time.
The response was, contrary to media reports, immediate and direct. The biggest obstacles were apparent immediately; distribution and communication. Many people have asked why the rescuers could not get to New Orleans since the media did, but the media went in ahead of time and simply camped out there. When the storm hit, it wiped out access to sea and airports, as well as most roads, including I-10.
Katrina came up faster than expected, did not go where expected, and hit harder than expected, taking out the infrastructure which is generally used by emergency services. The plans in place for refugee housing did not include provisions for the total collapse of the levies and the number of victims. It should be noted that no exercise in disaster management is possible for this scale of disaster, nor has anyone responded to a disaster on this scale in less than a week (in the days following the Tsunami disaster in 2004, the first ten days were devoted entirely to removing people by ship and helicopter, a task which was never fully completed, and providing water and food to the refugees, which began to take effect only a week later. The Red Cross reports that the death toll reached 120,000 before any relief arrived) .
The first responders, as always, were local. In this case, however, the fire and police stations had generally been destroyed as well, so that resources were unavailable even to the people trained to be the first providers of relief. With the roads impassable, county and even state agencies were crippled. With no radar or tower communications, aircraft in the area were limited to helicopters and line-of-sight search procedures, which were used extensively during this first week of rescue. The response has been significant, apparently ignored by the media in preference of driving a story of outrage rather than hope. As an example, here in Houston Mayor Bill White took charge of opening the Astrodome to refugees and coordinating the necessary procedures to open vacant apartments for refugees. The Medical Center sent effectively all of its LifeFlight and other medical aircraft to Louisiana to move critically injured patients, including more than a hundred infants and critical-care patients in the first two days after Katrina struck. All Texas schools have opened their doors to the children of refugees, and dozens of local churches have set up shelters, provided clothing and food and showers, and in two specific cases I know, are already planning for long-term relocation and/or rebuilding of homes and businesses. Almost thirty thousand victims from Katrina are already in Houston, and local businesses have begun drives to collect supplies and employment opportunities for hurricane victims. This in less than a week, and Houston is hardly the only city doing this. Not that you will hear it from the MSM.
There's more to say, but for now that's quite enough.
No one likes to see people suffering, so it’s not surprising that along with people stepping up to send aid and coordinate workers, there are others who can do nothing but complain and spew bile. It happens every time there’s a disaster which claims lives, and everyone realizes this is big.
There’s a lot of attention on the relief efforts, so I won’t go into them here, except to ask everyone to give what they can, and to remember that everything matters, especially right now. At the company I work for, hundreds of employees have been allowed paid time off to help work at the Astrodome. They came back to tell stories of people who now have absolutely nothing, not even a change of clothing. Their property is gone, their homes are gone, their workplaces are gone, the banks and schools and churches they went to, all are gone. In many cases they are separated from family, with no way to know if their relatives are even living or dead. It has been a very long time, since the United States of America had to address such a national emergency, a true crisis.
The jackals are already out in force. The looters in New Orleans are proving that the dregs will rise up whenever they have the opportunity, stealing, even raping and murdering innocent. That is why we are sending 40,000 additional troops to New Orleans. The bitter partisans are also already sniping at the relief effort, doing nothing for the victims while standing in the way of the people trying to get the job done. That is why I am writing this article, in my own small way trying to answer reasonable questions and explain how things got to this point.
The first reasonable question for anyone to ask is, why was Katrina so different from other storms? That really comes down to timing, the course of the storm, the history of disaster management, and the scale of the whole thing. Most people forget that there is a sort of fatigue factor in Hurricane seasons. Katrina was the twelfth named storm of the season.
Tropical Storm Arlene started up June 8, but did little more than dump rain for a few days.
Tropical Storm Bret began June 28, and petered out over Southeast Mexico.
Tropical Storm Cindy began July 3, made landfall near New Orleans on July 5, and settled into a Tropical Depression over Mississippi on July 6.
Hurricane Dennis began July 4, reaching wind speeds of 150 mph, making it a Category 4 Hurricane. Ominously, the National Weather Service notes that Dennis is the earliest (in the season) Category 4 storm in the Caribbean on record. Twenty-four people died in the Hurricane, which ravaged Haiti and Cuba before smashing into Florida. Yet news reports at the time remarked that the damage and death toll was less than expected, setting an expectation which would prove dangerous later. Dennis dwindled out on July 12, indicating that a major storm could last more than a few days during this season.
Hurricane Emily began July 11, reaching wind speeds of 155 mph, a deadly Category 3 storm as it ravaged Venezuela and moving up to Category 4 as it headed through Jamaica. Emily killed two people as it moved along the Yucatan peninsula, and finally stalled over Mexico and Texas. Vicente Fox credits the low loss of life to early evacuation efforts along Mexico’s northern coast.
Tropical Storm Franklin began July21, but while it reached wind speeds of 70 mph, Franklin stayed away from land and died off the Northeast U.S. coast, well off-shore.
Tropical Storm Gert began July 23, making landfall over south Mexico on the 24th. The importance of Gert, was it was the record fifth named-storm in July.
Tropical Storm Harvey began August 3, dumped a lot of rain on the Bahamas, but did little else, as it headed out to the mid-Atlantic.
Hurricane Irene began August 4, reaching top wind speeds of 100 mph. Irene made a long trek from about 735 miles off the coast of Africa, all the way across the Atlantic to the Caribbean, alternately weakening and gaining strength as it approached. On August 14, Irene became a Hurricane but was already moving away from land. Irene fell apart over the cold north Atlantic waters as she moved away from Bermuda towards Nova Scotia.
And Tropical Storm Jose began August 22, dying less than a day later in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
So, because there were eleven storms in the Caribbean during 2005 before Katrina, there was a kind of fatigue, a 'been there, done that’ assumption. Also, since the three August storms before Katrina were less dangerous than expected, a false optimism prevailed.
Now, look at the biography of Katrina:
August 24: Tropical Storm Katrina forms from a Tropical Depression crated just one day earlier, gaining strength faster than most storms do.
August 25: Katrina kicked in the door to say hello to Florida, killing 3 and knocking out power to more than a million people. This, as a Category 1 Hurricane. Katrina swept out west to the Gulf of Mexico.
August 26: Media breathe a sigh of relief as Katrina appears to weaken slightly, and is expected to turn North and make landfall as a Tropical Storm over Florida’s Panhandle.
August 26, 5 PM: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced a shift in the projected path of Katrina. Now at risk are the States of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, and states upland from its path.
August 27: Against expectations, Katrina is upgraded to Category 3, and appears to be homing in on the Louisiana-Mississippi coastline. New Orleans is predicted to receive about eleven inches of rain from Katrina. The Mayor of New Orleans suggests a voluntary evacuation of the city, but the recommendation is largely ignored, according to the press. USA Today quotes Fred Wilson, who said “"The only dangerous hurricanes so far are the ones we've been drinking," President Bush also ordered a state of emergency for Louisiana in anticipation of the need for Federal assistance, and ordering FEMA to be prepared to assist.
August 28: Katrina reaches Category 5 strength, about 250 miles South of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with sustained wind speeds of 175 mph. The Mayor of New Orleans orders a mandatory evacuation of the city. Mississippi emergency authorities track the storm, but order no evacuations.
August 29, 630 AM: Katrina made landfall in Plaquemines Parish Louisiana, just South of Buras, as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. A wall of water approximately 20 feet high crushes the Gulf Coast along a line more than two hundred miles broad.
August 30: Katrina weakens to a Tropical Depression near Clarksville, Tennessee.
USA Today published an interesting story, noting that New Orleans has been hit many times by major storms. In 1998, New Orleans was ordered evacuated, and the Superdome was used to house refugees, just as it was this time.
The response was, contrary to media reports, immediate and direct. The biggest obstacles were apparent immediately; distribution and communication. Many people have asked why the rescuers could not get to New Orleans since the media did, but the media went in ahead of time and simply camped out there. When the storm hit, it wiped out access to sea and airports, as well as most roads, including I-10.
Katrina came up faster than expected, did not go where expected, and hit harder than expected, taking out the infrastructure which is generally used by emergency services. The plans in place for refugee housing did not include provisions for the total collapse of the levies and the number of victims. It should be noted that no exercise in disaster management is possible for this scale of disaster, nor has anyone responded to a disaster on this scale in less than a week (in the days following the Tsunami disaster in 2004, the first ten days were devoted entirely to removing people by ship and helicopter, a task which was never fully completed, and providing water and food to the refugees, which began to take effect only a week later. The Red Cross reports that the death toll reached 120,000 before any relief arrived) .
The first responders, as always, were local. In this case, however, the fire and police stations had generally been destroyed as well, so that resources were unavailable even to the people trained to be the first providers of relief. With the roads impassable, county and even state agencies were crippled. With no radar or tower communications, aircraft in the area were limited to helicopters and line-of-sight search procedures, which were used extensively during this first week of rescue. The response has been significant, apparently ignored by the media in preference of driving a story of outrage rather than hope. As an example, here in Houston Mayor Bill White took charge of opening the Astrodome to refugees and coordinating the necessary procedures to open vacant apartments for refugees. The Medical Center sent effectively all of its LifeFlight and other medical aircraft to Louisiana to move critically injured patients, including more than a hundred infants and critical-care patients in the first two days after Katrina struck. All Texas schools have opened their doors to the children of refugees, and dozens of local churches have set up shelters, provided clothing and food and showers, and in two specific cases I know, are already planning for long-term relocation and/or rebuilding of homes and businesses. Almost thirty thousand victims from Katrina are already in Houston, and local businesses have begun drives to collect supplies and employment opportunities for hurricane victims. This in less than a week, and Houston is hardly the only city doing this. Not that you will hear it from the MSM.
There's more to say, but for now that's quite enough.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Back In The Saddle Again
*************
I was watching MSNBC today (along with all the other news networks; it’s kind of a blur when you try to watch five news stations more or less simultaneously), and I saw an interesting interview.
Folks may remember the effort last year to raise money for Tsunami Relief in Asia. Former Presidents Bush and Clinton worked hard and long to raise awareness and money, and they did a bang-up job.
Well, as of today they’re doing the same thing to help raise money to help the victims of Katrina. Whatever one thinks of the politics or policies of Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush, their assistance in this effort is a class effort and and shows the kind of cooperation and common goals this nation best displays.
Thank you, Misters President.
I was watching MSNBC today (along with all the other news networks; it’s kind of a blur when you try to watch five news stations more or less simultaneously), and I saw an interesting interview.
Folks may remember the effort last year to raise money for Tsunami Relief in Asia. Former Presidents Bush and Clinton worked hard and long to raise awareness and money, and they did a bang-up job.
Well, as of today they’re doing the same thing to help raise money to help the victims of Katrina. Whatever one thinks of the politics or policies of Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush, their assistance in this effort is a class effort and and shows the kind of cooperation and common goals this nation best displays.
Thank you, Misters President.
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