Polls - Internal Trends

Over on Polipundit, I put up an article on the latest Newsweek and CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls, although I concentrated my comments on the Newsweek poll. I mentioned that for those interested, I would be putting more detailed numbers up over here. If you like statistical data, this will be good. If not, well, sorry, but it’s demographics time again.

Here are the details in the Newsweek polling. The first poll in the numbers is the one released September 3, the second is the September 10 release, and the third is one just out October 4.
Here’s the self-reported party by count breakdown in the Newsweek polls:

Group………………..Poll 1………..Poll 2………Poll 3
Republicans…………374………….391…………345
Democrats…………..303…………..300…………364
Independents……….300…………...270…………278

Here’s Newsweek’s report of Party % Support for these polls, (1/2/3):

Republicans Supporting Bush: 94/93/89
Republicans Supporting Kerry: 04/04/06
Independents Supporting Bush: 45/39/37
Independents Supporting Kerry: 40/45/42
Democrats Supporting Bush: 14/07/12
Democrats Supporting Kerry: 82/87/86

The only clear change is the shift to Kerry by Independents. However, with Newsweek’s admitted over-polling in the West and Mountains, this may be a reflection of region, rather than a shift in support. Note also, however, that Democratic support for the President is rising again.

Next, a look at the Gallup Demographics. I do not, frankly, accept Newsweek’s claim that Kerry is beating Bush among men, anymore than I would accept Pee Wee Herman whipping John Wayne in a barfight; it’s just not going to happen. So, I turned to more reliable (i.e., the methodology remains constant) numbers, from Gallup. Taking the first poll of each month, beginning in May, here’s how the support % has trended (May/June/July/August/September/October):

Men Support for Bush: 54/50/49/52/52/54 [ 5-point range, strong ]
Men Support for Kerry: 40/43/45/45/45/45 [ 5-point range, steady ]
Women Support for Bush: 42/39/39/45/46/45 [ 7-point range, improving ]
Women Support for Kerry: 53/54/56/51/50/51 [ 5-point range, in decline ]
Republicans for Bush: 91/87/87/92/90/94 [ 7-point range, very strong ]
Independents for Bush: 46/35/37/43/46/40 [ 9-point range, down but OK ]
Independents for Kerry: 46/51/50/50/49/54 [ 8-point range, very strong ]
Democrats for Kerry: 85/87/92/92/90/89 [ 5-point range, in decline but OK ]

Taken in total, what these numbers say, is that the debate bumped the President a little bit, but his overall position remains commanding. If anything, Bush is poised to catch Kerry by surprise in the election, as the President’s core support is very solid, and he appears much more likely to get his people out to vote. The mid-month internals will tell us, whether the Democrats’ GOTV effort is likely to work or not.