Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Simple Math

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I don’t hold much with polls these days, but this number seems worth mentioning:

79% of those who watched the speech by President Bush last night approved of it. Also, approval of his policies climbed 25 points in a single night.

Amazing what happens when the man is allowed to speak for himself.


Mark L. said...

I made a comment on Follypundit about polls, so it's only fair to repeat it here:

I don't think W works about getting the polls right as he does about getting it right. Obsession with polls has always struck me as something Kossacks and moveon.org types obsess about.

Not that you are obsessing about polls yet. Yet.

DJ Drummond said...

Well, I hope to never obsess over polls. Basically, I try to note valid measures which use consistent methodology, and I like to point out what I see as salient indicators, but only in context.

Anonymous said...

Please go to:

smh10 said...

DJ: Gee, any poll that shows that President Bush has support on any issue is worth talking about.

Nice to see some encouraging news once in a while. I don't put much weight in polls one way or another but it sort of makes the point that most Americans still can think for themselves. Now there's a concept.

JB said...

W.'s speech sounded fairly reasonable. The poll reflects that reality. Most Americans will not take the Polipundit position on this issue.

Rich said...

In these polls self-identified Democrats never give the President an even break. Self-identified Republicans (until recently) were the polar opposite. If this is true it would mean that:

1. Before the speech the President had all the self-identified Republicans.

2. After the speech the President had all the self-identified Republicans along with all the Independents.

My analysis is obviously oversimplfied but it does show the statesmanship of the speech in that it had to cross partisan lines.

We should never obsess over polls and we know that the President doesn't. What this instance shows is that good leadership can make for good politics and hopefully for good policy. It is good to see the good sense of the American people rather than the rantings of the echo chamber known as the blogosphere.

Anonymous said...

I hope the National Guard works but the numbers seem small for such a large area. I know a lot of people are worked up over the illegal immigration aspect. I am more concerned about our enemies who want to kill us getting in through the porous borders. I also know that these people can just fly in and blend in our melting pot. I am very skeptical of polls and have been for a long time. I agree with Mark about the President not caring about the polls but rather in doing what is right.

The Listkeeper said...

If Congress approves a plan that include spending for virtual fence technology such as I've seen proposed by some of the people who will be implementing it, then 18000 border guards will be entirely adequate to do the job so long as they engineer their response policy to match the capabilities of the technology.

MFG said...

I think the speech hit just the right tone & appealed to the broad middle of the American electorate.

I was pleased.

I just hope we can get some legislation passed this year...

Rich said...

Basically, I try to note valid measures which use consistent methodology, and I like to point out what I see as salient indicators, but only in context.

Meanwhile Poli is running an al Zogby poll as gospel. What I learned from you in the last cycle is that he has some of the worst methodology.

Anonymous said...

rich - that's hilarious, considering that Zogby poll has 7 in 10 *Republicans* in favor of Bush's proposals! Is Poli-Kos taking THAT as gospel?

--Big Mo

Rich said...

Here's his comments:

Bush Job Approval at 32 percent, 58 percent of moderates say they disliked the speech.

Let's break it down (Like/Disappointed):

Republicans 70/19
Democrats 19/70 [Zogby noted more demos approved than normal]
Independents 50/50
"Moderates" 34/58
Overall 47/47

These so-called moderates are just liberals trying to get under the radar. They cannot be either moderate Republicans or moderate Independents. I'm a moderate Republican and I was psyched. These are faux moderates.

Moderate is such a mushy polling category and furthermore Zogby didn't break out either conservative or liberal. Thus, this is utterly meaningless.

Zogby as usual gives no party affiliation so we get the usual Demo oversampling for the approval rating.

I'm not DJ but I play him on TV. :-)

Rich said...

DJ has a longer memory on this than I do but can you think of anything where the cherry picking was more egregious? He even makes Zogby look reasonable with Zogby's headline being:

Bush Immigration Speech: Half Disappointed, Half impressed

Ron in AZ said...

Great to see. People need to get on the bandwagon and make sure that the Congress and Senate push through all aspects of the program! Then Bush won't have to settle for amnesty like Reagan did or settle for a tax increase like Bush 41 did. Let's support our President. He is fighting a war that must be fought! He has given us many great judges and 2 great Supreme Court Justices! He has given is tax relief! He has turned a mild recession into great prosperity! He has ushered more republicans into the House and Senate in every election. Why do some find it so easy to ignore the good.