Tuesday, May 16, 2006

The Speech – Analysis Part 1


Oh yes, I am serious about this being a multi-parter, because this speech by President Bush was not just good, it was historic. As in people will be quoting parts from this speech when they want to describe what kind of President was George Walker Bush.

This speech was a lot meatier than folks realize, and part of what I want to do here is educate the willing as to why this was a multi-dimensional presentation. First, for all the noise, a lot of people still do not realize that this issue is actually three issues in one package:

• Border Security
• Alien Entry Protocols
• Immigration Reform

Also, the debate to address these problems depends on three legs of decision:

• Strategic Course
• Functional Implementation
• Cost

And, as if that were not enough, the plans must be weighed before action on the three measures of effect:

• Immediate
• Short Term (<10 years)
• Long Term (10+ years)

This should begin to show the complexity of the issue; even if each point I referenced had only two possible values (the classic Yes/No result), we would be looking at 54 possible conditions from it. And since the number of possible outcomes for each point is a fluid variable, the actual number of conditions approaches a high end, certainly well beyond any sense of a controlled environment. To put it bluntly, this lack of controlled outcome is one major reason so few people have been brave enough to even tackle the issue.

To be continued. Next episode – the Myth of Border Security .


The Listkeeper said...

My favorite part of the speech was when he mentioned more detention space...That is, after all, the primary reason we have catch and release. Not enough detention beds, and most of the ones we have aren't where they're useful.

Anonymous said...

Maricopa County has "Tent City" for our county prison. Sheriff Joe kicks butt

a4g said...

I was more than a little down after the speech, because I thought if he had just added the words "enforcement first" somewhere in there, this whole issue would vaporize as a contentious debate.

I'm always skeptical of government solutions. Comprehensive ones, doubly so.

Republicanpundit said...

DJ, Another tip, go to your dashboard and comment section and turn of the word verification. It will make posting quicker. Additionally you may want to turn off the approval of comments. Your blog will grow in comments if folks can comment and see it immediately and others to answer a comment immediately.


Again, you are welcome to post on my page. I will give you necessary passwords if you would like.

Republicanpundit said...

I see that you alread did!!!

Ron in AZ said...

I followed you over from PoliPundit which I will no longer frequent. I cannot believe how many people think a wall somehow changes the supply demand curve. As long as the government does not give employers an effective, immediate way to screen employees there will be demand and the supply will always get here somehow. The Biometric ID/guest worker program will work and need not result in citizenship. Then employers who don't play by the rules can be caught and prosecuted! Demand for illegal workers quickly decreases, supply follows. Demand for legal workers increases, supply follows as people flow into the system.

Why do so many not understand that this must happen or barriers are entirely ineffective - at least the President knows this!!!!

Beth said...

Finally, someone really wants to tackle the meat of the issue instead of just screaming abstract thoughts. There's FAR more to this issue than just "illegal immigration bad -> get rid of 'em." It's a LOT easier said than done!
So many people think Bush's position is based on being soft on illegals, rather than actual feasibility, logistics, strateg(er)y, national security, etc. It's like our side got drunk off the blood they drew with Miers/Dubai and lost their damn minds.
I guess if they get their way and end up putting us in the minority again, they'll have plenty of time to sit around thinking about issues (as opposed to actually implementing them).
I look forward to your analysis, DJ!

Rich said...

Even though the President's plan is comprehensive both in scope and time frame it is the immediate time frame and the border security that both the President and Congress need to be judged.

Our country's security is at stake and gridlock is unacceptable. Republicans have majorities in both houses and the Presidency. If the President cannot quickly sign a bill that at least makes progress on border security not only will Republicans be turned out of office they ought to be turned out of office because they failed to fulfill their vows to protect and defend the American people in time of war.

The President understands that in order to get the good bill on border security we need, we also need to allow for some sort of guest worker program. Since this is the less pressing problem, this is where Republicans in the House need to compromise. We need to know what we will die for. Security for the American people, yes. No "amnesty", no way, no how, absolutely not.

So, if the President can get a bill signed which only makes progress on short term border security he will only be constitutionally adequate, simply discharging his vows. If on the other hand, due to the comprehensive nature of his program he can make progress on all three problems in all three time frames he will go down as one of the great Presidents of all time. This is what truly matters for a President, not good speeches, nor good polls, nor electing a particular party, but being a great statesman where we not only profess the right thing but we actually do it.

SicSemperTyrannus said...

I like your analysis. When faced with a seemingly unsurmountable task, break it down into identifiable and do-able tasks.
Secure the borders FIRST, then we can wrestle with alien entry protocaols and immigration reform. It's like when you have a pipe break in your basement, the first thing you do is shut off the water. Then, and only then, do you pump out the basement and assess flood damage.

W.C. Varones said...

At least the Mexican officials are honest:

Bush's amnesty will encourage more illegal immigration.

Steve Falcon said...

I was particularly pleased with the protions of the speech that involved National Guard troops, fences, vehicle barriers, and more resources to state and local police.

DJ, it's SOOO good to read your posts again. I read what you said on Lorie's blog about the possibility of a new group blog venture with new a diferent guest bloggers.

I agree that the group blogging concept is a strong one. It's the reason I always started my day with Polipundit.com. Besides being a great resource for information, the differing writing styles made reading interesting and fun.

I look forward to seeing what develops.

Anonymous said...

WC. . how will it encourage new border crossers when under the terms new border crossers woudl be inelligible?

W.C. Varones said...

Why, anonymous?

Maybe because they know we are LYING when we say that we are going to secure the border and no one else will get amnesty.

Just like we LIED in the 80's when we said it was a one-time amnesty and we were going to secure the border.

Illegal immigration increased after the last amnesty, and it will increase because of the current proposed amnesty.

W.C. Varones said...

...and because it's a farce that new illegal aliens "wouldn't be eligible."

How on earth do you think we're going to be able to prove who's been here 5 years and who hasn't?

If an illegal alien is sophisticated enough to get past Bush's high-tech border, patrolled by sharks with laser beams, do you really think he won't be able to get a few of his buddies to vouch for him, saying he's been working here for years?